Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. My mum wants to censure Julie Bishop.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:54 pm

  2. geoffrey
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    even bob ellis knew about the carr offer – this is more than a leak, it is a warragamba overflow

    You can turn a phrase well at times, geoffrey.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  3. GG

    I cant remember the ending of part 1.

    There were credits where it lists all the actors and crew that made the film.

    I like the credits for Part II better.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:56 pm

  4. McClleand would be a good minister for foreign affairs.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  5. Sigh! Sky News is STILL pushing the Bob Carr story. They happily admit the PM said she didn’t ask CArr to fill the senate spot and that CArr confirmed this, then they just keep going with ‘but some things still need to be explained…’

    I think a lot of journos, news hacks and PBers need to be reminded – or informed for the very first time- about the way a senate vacancy is filled. So read this -
    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/publications.nsf/key/Factsheet06-CasualvacanciesintheSenate/$File/Fact+sheet+06+Casual+vacancies+in+the+Senate.pdf

    The PM does not, repeat, does not choose a new senator. The NSW parliament has that duty and with a coalition government you never know what might happen. Think back to the troubles Whitlam had with state governments electing dodgy candidates.

    If the PM talked to Bob Carr so what? She might have wanted his advice on possible candidates.

    The procedure for filling a casual Senate vacancy rules out ‘hissy fits’ from federal Labor MPs. All that crap about Smith vetoing Carr is bulldust. I can’tbelieve that all those learned journos and highly educated Opposition MPs don’t understand the process.

    Someone insignificant in NSW Labor probably blabbed to someone else who blabbed to Shanners that the PM had talked to Bob Carr. Shanners then put two and two together, came up with eleventy three and rushed to get his garbage into the papers.

    by leone on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:58 pm

  6. Showsy,

    I see you are a movie boof as well as a real life boof.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 5:58 pm

  7. Or what about Bob Carr?

    by ShowsOn on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  8. Leone so you don’t think NSW Labor discussed the vacancy with anyone in federal Labor?

    by DavidWH on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  9. http://delimiter.com.au/2012/03/01/turnbull-again-misleads-the-public-on-nbn/

    ANALYSIS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS - Written by Renai LeMay on Thursday, March 1, 2012 16:40 - 1 Comment

    Turnbull again misleads public on NBN

    analysis Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has this week again made a number of misleading and factually inaccurate statements in a series of interviews and comments about the Government’s National Broadband Network project, on topics ranging from the technology used in the project to its cost and retail broadband prices.

    good detailed response

    by Leroy on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:06 pm

  10. Sigh! Sky News is STILL pushing the Bob Carr story.

    Forget about it. It will be old news tomorrow – as will the real story that these media mongrels hope most people will have missed today … which is the heir of Mordor falling on his sword after having his various crimes and misdemenours exposed so publicly in the UK.

    What odds he’ll turn up back here in the colonies shortly? After all, compared to our usual media bods, James Mordor is a perfect paragon of honesty and integrity!

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:06 pm

  11. I earlier mentioned the big task ahead for Combet in soothing industry and employees concerns about the impact of carbon pricing.

    It does run deep. I had a passenger, a meatworker, in the cab. He claimed to have been addressed by management that their current power bills of $5000 per month will increase by 100%. I think Dare reported something similar from some manufacturers in her area.

    That figure doesn’t seem to make sense from the Treasury estimates. From memory they calculated a maximum of about 15%, probably before offsets or compensation allowances kicked in.

    Either Treasury has got it terribly wrong, or someone is spreading misinformation.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  12. Leone so you don’t think NSW Labor discussed the vacancy with anyone in federal Labor?

    This morning I heard that Michael Fullilove is nominating:
    http://www.lowyinstitute.org/StaffBio.asp?pid=975

    I feel he would be a better candidate. Handing a casual Senate vacancy to Warren Mundine just seems too tokenistic for my liking. He should be pre-selected to a safe house seat instead, like Reid or Blaxland.

    The first indigenous Labor MP should be elected by the people rather than just appointed by the NSW parliament.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  13. Showsy,

    I see you are a movie boof as well as a real life boot.

    I have always preferred the reflection of the life to life itself.

    - Francois Truffaut

    by ShowsOn on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:13 pm

  14. Sigh! Sky News is STILL pushing the Bob Carr story.

    As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  15. Either Treasury has got it terribly wrong, or someone is spreading misinformation.

    Hmmm … now let me think … which one is more likely … :)

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  16. As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

    Aren’t they supposed to be a news outlet?

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:15 pm

  17. How is it not news that the PM said talk of her talking to Bob Carr was “completely untrue, completely untrue” only to find today it was “completely true” that she talked to him?

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:18 pm

  18. GD
    It is a bit of both

    Electricity prices are reportedly set to sour at about 10% a year (compound) which does mean doubling in the near future

    Electricity prices can be quite crippling for small businesses and costs of $2-3000 per month not uncommon.

    Electricity costs are approaching wage costs for many.

    by daretotread on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:19 pm

  19. DAvidWH

    I’m sure people from federal Labor discussed possible candidates with NSW Labor people, you’d expect that they would. I can’t see anything wrong with phone calls for this reason. But as I said, it all depends on the NSW parliament, not on Julia Gillard or Stephen Smith.

    by leone on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:20 pm

  20. How is it not news that the PM said talk of her talking to Bob Carr was “completely untrue, completely untrue” only to find today it was “completely true” that she talked to him?

    What is “completely untrue” is your bizarre and twisted version of events.

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:20 pm

  21. As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

    I still haven’t heard anything that resembles a newsworthy element about this “incident”.

    The original reports were trying to make something out of the fact that there was some pushback about a suggestion that Bob Carr could get FA, but … that’s it. It doesn’t mean anything to anyone, and once Bob Carr said he wasn’t interested, that was it. Nothing will come of it.

    The original “Factions!” angle was a non-story anyway, and doesn’t appear to have any basis in fact.

    Now, with Julia Gillard dismissing the original report, the angle is “Untrustworthy!” – again, without any evidence beyond some suggestion that Julia Gillard should have been more precise about exactly which bits of the original story were “completely untrue”.

    Christ on a cracker, the whole thing is absurd nonsense.

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:23 pm

  22. Oscar:

    If you are a door-knocker for the ALP, please make the point that there was nothing misleading about Gillard’s statement of yesterday…should go down a treat I reckon!

    :)

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:26 pm

  23. leone

    it all depends on the NSW parliament

    No it doesn’t! The ALP selects the candidate to replace Arbib/

    by MTBW on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:26 pm

  24. Christ on a cracker, the whole thing is absurd nonsense.

    A PM getting caught telling a porker is newsworthy to non ALP-hack Australians

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:27 pm

  25. Leone I agree with you on both counts. The issue, if there is one, seems to be more about how it was handled rather than what may have been proposed.

    by DavidWH on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:28 pm

  26. A PM getting caught telling a porker is newsworthy to non ALP-hack Australians

    The media telling porkies is an everyday occurence however and barely raises any eyebrows

    by Think Big on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:30 pm

  27. How is it not news that the PM said talk of her talking to Bob Carr was “completely untrue, completely untrue” only to find today it was “completely true” that she talked to him?

    So the question was simply “Did you talk to Bob Carr”?

    by ltep on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:30 pm

  28. There’s an obvious solution for Gillard, in relation to the Foreign Affairs portfolio: give Kevin Rudd his job back.
    And don’t demote Bowen, McClelland, Carr, Ferguson.

    She won’t do the first, obviously, but will she have the good sense not to take out retribution on McClelland and Carr(who I presume are the most endangered of the Ruddites)?

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:30 pm

  29. When the thing that saves Carr from demotion is his factional support will people still be decrying the ‘faceless men’ and the power of the factions?

    by ltep on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:32 pm

  30. International reaction to Rudd’s resignation as Foreign Minister:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/the-world-will-miss-kevin-rudd/story-e6frf7jx-1226286277993

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:33 pm

  31. A PM getting caught telling a porker is newsworthy to non ALP-hack Australians

    What “porker”?

    The story in the Australian was headlined “Mutiny Kills PM’s Bob Carr Plan” with a subheadline “Rebellion by Ministers Undermines Gillard’s Newfound Authority”.

    No evidence for a “Mutiny” or a “Rebellion by Ministers”, and I think it is quite reasonable to describe that story as “Completely Untrue”.

    Provide any evidence that Julia Gillard was suggesting that “Completely Untrue” related in any way to her approaching Bob Carr?

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:34 pm

  32. @leroy/3908,

    No surprise there!

    by zoidlord on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:34 pm

  33. Jen , great photo. Ha Ha Ha , have saved it.

    by Lord Barry Bonkton on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:37 pm

  34. Mr Palmer and his Football Australia might have the odd problem with FIFA.

    Billionaire Clive Palmer has announced he is starting an independent football body called Football Australia, aimed at holding Football Federation Australia (FFA) accountable for running the game.

    h­ttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-01/palmer-initiates-independent-football-body/3863084

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:37 pm

  35. The good thing is that, finally, some of the media will pursue the sneaky legalise wording Gillard uses and ask for absolute specifics.

    I have been saying for 18 months that we didn’t know why Rudd was deposed, roundly criticised by the PBers, only to find on Monday that Gillard was admitting exactly that!

    …just in case you guys thought I hadn’t noticed!!!!

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:38 pm

  36. So it took 24 hours to destroy her legitimacy as PM after winning the ballot.

    Me thinks 71 people have their collective heads in the sand eh Mod Lib?

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:40 pm

  37. If you are a door-knocker for the ALP, please make the point that there was nothing misleading about Gillard’s statement of yesterday…should go down a treat I reckon!

    Okay, Mod Lib.

    I’ve just held my nose and re-read the confected nonsense contained in the various stories on this subject on the OO website (I’m presuming you are using this as your primary source of information? Or is it some other Murdoch rag that is your primary source?). In any case, I cannot find any possible interpretation of events that makes this anything more than a desperate beat up.

    But perhaps I am simply not clever enough to understand. I certainly had trouble following Shamaham’s particular brand of logic – espcecially since his main argument seemed to rest on the fact that Gillard was obviously lying when she said the story was untrue because the story was very nearly true. Or something like that.

    Perhaps you would like to do me a favor and lay out a timeline of events and statements that you think substantiates your claims that there is any story here? Other than the obvious one, I mean – i.e. that the OO just likes to make shit up.

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:40 pm

  38. Leveson tonight should be QI:

    evidence from former Met commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson, ex-assistant commissioner John Yates, former assistant commissioner Andy Hayman and ex-deputy assistant commissioner Peter Clarke.

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/29/leveson-inquiry-williams-maberly-surtees-live

    by This little black duck on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:41 pm

  39. As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

    Which they’re not. Any suggestion that they are or should be is utterly abhorrent.

    They’re a Coalition press outlet.

    by Aguirre on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:42 pm

  40. TLBD

    Palmer is just starting a think tank about soccer in Oz. It’s not a rival league; basically it will be his lobby group.

    by Diogenes on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:43 pm

  41. Oh, ModLib, have a look at how the ABC reported the context of the “Completely Untrue”:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-29/carr-foreign-ministry-speculation/3860482

    Straight after the shots of the front page story in the Australian with “Mutiny Kills PM’s Bob Carr Plan” “Rebellion by Ministers Undermines Gillard’s Newfound Authority”, so it was clearly in relation to that story. That story was obviously trying to play up “division within the ALP” “Julia Gillard lacks authority”; describing it as Completely Untrue is obviously in reference to the Mutiny/Rebellion aspects.

    That there are other facts contained within the story is irrelevant. The context is clear, unless you are wilfully blind. Yet another bootstrapping non-story to use as evidence of Julia Gillard being “untrustworthy” and a “failure”.

    Someone get me a bucket.

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:43 pm

  42. Aguirre:

    I would be interested to hear your perspective of Carrgate….

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:43 pm

  43. ML is right, the story was not “completely” untrue.

    Okay, Carr wasn’t spoken to before the weekend, he wasn’t offered the FM post by the PM and there wasn’t a mutiny, which was the thrust of the story., but let’s not quibble over irrelevancies like that.

    It is outrageous that, just because a few of the accusations made in the story were compeletely untrue, the PM called the whole story completely untrue.

    Bits of it were true, Carr is called Carr, for example and that should be enough for our PM to bend the knee to the other minor inaccuracies.

    It is this lazy insistence on actually telling the truth in stories that is threatening our freedom of speech and the very existence of our Australian way of life.

    Yes, it might be slightly contradictory that reaction to a story in which the salient points were made up is now being used to paint the PM as a liar, but that’s modern day political coverage for you.

    by roaldan1000 on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:45 pm

  44. Mod Lib

    The good thing is that, finally, some of the media will pursue the sneaky legalise wording Gillard uses and ask for absolute specifics.

    Mod Lib when it came to legalise sneaky and weasel words there is only one king .So all hail King John “I was not informed” Howard. All others pale into insignificance.

    by poroti on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:45 pm

  45. @Mod Lib/3934,

    I never critisised rudd, but I think he’s got an ego problem.

    There is an old saying, there is plenty ways to skin a cat, and one of the was to be premier of QLD.

    by zoidlord on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:45 pm

  46. Gary Sparrow: never doubt the collective wisdom of the Labor Caucus. :)

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:46 pm

  47. No it doesn’t! The ALP selects the candidate to replace Arbib/

    And the NSW Parliament in a joint sitting gets to vote on that candidate. Here’s how it happens -
    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LC20111013002

    Simple, all over in minutes and Arthur Sinodonis fills the vacancy created whenh Helen Coonan left.

    But they can vote no. Take a look at what happened to Whitlam after Jim Cairns’ dismissal. Labor put up Mal Colston (not such a great choice) and the Bjelke Petersen government knocked him back twice. Labor refused to put up another candidate so Joh did it for them. He chose Albert Field and convinced parliament to vote for him. Field declared that he would not support Whitalm. It got even messier when Labor expelled Field for standing against Colston, with MPs boycotting his swearing in ceremony.

    If Fatty O’Barrell has a bad hair day who knows….

    by leone on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:46 pm

  48. Leone – stop pursuing that one, it’s a formality now after the 1977 referendum.

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:48 pm

  49. Glen/Gary Sparrow: Where has Bruce Bilson been lately? Very quiet shadow minister. If he’s really going to take Abbott’s job, he better start campaigning for it. :)

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:48 pm

  50. If he’s really going to take Abbott’s job

    Abbott’s job is to be trounced at the next election, and so far he’s exceeding his KPIs.

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 6:50 pm

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