Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. bemused,

    You’re certainly not demonstrating loyalty atm. You need to straighten up and fly right comrade.

    by Greensborough Growler on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:11 pm

  2. mickw

    steady

    have this sammo i prepared earlier…………..

    by gusface on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:13 pm

  3. confessions @ 698

    Hopefully the last week has seen the end of Bruce Hawker, the penultimate faceless man.

    End in what sense?
    Bruce Hawker was Bob Carr’s Chief of Staff and has been an ALP member since 1978 and worked on many campaigns.
    What is your commitment to and involvement with the ALP?

    by bemused on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:13 pm

  4. bemused,

    You’re certainly not demonstrating loyalty atm. You need to straighten up and fly right comrade.

    Did I miss bemused saying he’d vote for the forces of evil and darkness rather than Julia? I just thought he was arguing passionately and well that Julia was a liability and threat to the forces of goodness and light? Obviously the 70 and the 1 agreed with many here on PB, but bemused and I can feel better the 70 and 1 have an appalling track record with leaders.

    by WeWantPaul on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  5. no he needs to fight a full election

    Right. A new democrat party?

    by CTar1 on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:15 pm

  6. GG @ 700

    bemused,

    You’re certainly not demonstrating loyalty atm. You need to straighten up and fly right comrade.

    Well clearly we have different ideas of loyalty.
    Mine is to the party, whoever it’s leader is.

    by bemused on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:16 pm

  7. You mean those who will only support the party if they get their choice of leader, because they are the ones I criticised.

    Bulldust. We don’t care who is leader. We support the party – but only if they demostrate that they are committed to the policies we want, and can get them through parliament.

    Gillard can do both. Rudd can do neither.

    And guess what? We are the ones who will decide who the next government is.

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:18 pm

  8. WOW , saw Hockey in qt , has he put on heaps of weight on or what ? He didn’t look happy.

    by Lord Barry Bonkton on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:18 pm

  9. Changes to the Ministry ?

    Emerson to FM.
    Crean to Trade
    Kelly to Regional Australia.

    Smith to FM.
    Kelly to Defence

    Bowen to Assistant Treasurer ( Promotion,relegation, sideways transfer ? )
    Clare to Immigration

    Carr to stay as Manufacturing Minister or go. Will PM leave him there especially with Holden deal coming through and emphasis on manufacturing sector. Has he been a good Minister ? I have no idea.

    Any other combinations ?

    by Doyley on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:19 pm

  10. Bowen to Assistant Treasurer

    Andrew Leigh

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:22 pm

  11. Search of 300,000,000 NI e-mails!

    That should take them a day or two.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  12. Not sure if this has been linked…around issues that were raised on media watch..

    ''Journalists' first duty is to the public, and I don't see the purpose in having political journalists if they're fuelling a political debate without being able to tell people what's going on,'' she said. Therefore, if journalists knew Mr Rudd was not telling the truth about briefings, there was an argument for coming forward"... Margaret Simons.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/stoush-that-plays-politics-with-journalists-standards-20120225-1tveu.html#ixzz1na3NqRyX

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/stoush-that-plays-politics-with-journalists-standards-20120225-1tveu.html

    by joe2 on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm

  13. tom_watson ‏ @tom_watson
    I have written to the HMRC asking for an investigation into cash payments by the Sun. Will publish letter on blog later today. #Leveson

    ducky

    tom sure is ready to rumble

    by gusface on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm

  14. Doyley:

    Agree with all those except for Asst Treasurer which I agree with Ducky should go to Andrew Leigh. And don’t waste Clare in the political graveyard of Immigration. Perhaps someone on the way out could take that porftolio?

    by confessions on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  15. Therefore, if journalists knew Mr Rudd was not telling the truth about briefings, there was an argument for coming forward

    Once the leaker lies all bets should be off.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  16. This Little Black Duck @709,

    Good call.

    What should Happen to Bowen ?

    Bowen to ???
    Clare to Immigration or Leave Mr Bowen where he is ?

    Mr Dreyfus into Cabinet ?

    by Doyley on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:30 pm

  17. This little black duck

    “Aspirational” change of relationship between Met and journos (according to the Met). Sound familiar?

    Nah.Forever in my mind is the rodent merging aspirational and graspirational :(

    by poroti on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  18. gusface,

    NI wouldn’t have been err paying “accommodations” to pollies?

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  19. Oscar @ 706

    Bulldust. We don’t care who is leader. We support the party – but only if they demostrate that they are committed to the policies we want, and can get them through parliament.

    Gillard can do both. Rudd can do neither.

    Gillard is merely implementing the ALP policy agenda initiated under Rudd. There is ahrdly a single thing that is her idea.

    And guess what? We are the ones who will decide who the next government is.

    Well actually, it is the electorate.
    But it is the loyal ALP members who do all the hard work campaigning for the ALP.

    by bemused on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:32 pm

  20. poroti,

    I was thinking more of :monkey: policies.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:32 pm

  21. Search of 300,000,000 NI e-mails!

    That should take them a day or two.

    Nah! they’ll find 299,999,000 of them are from the UK equivalents of TP, TLM, GT and SO.

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:33 pm

  22. It’s a bit rich when it comes to Abbott, it’s not about his approval number but when it comes to PM Gillard, it is #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:34 pm

  23. confessions @713,

    Andrew Leigh would be a good choice for Ass Treasurer.

    I am really interested in Mr Bowen. Moving him a good move or leaving him in Immigration a punishment ?

    Mr Clare into more high profile job. Where ?

    How about Richard Marles. Has he served his apprenticeship and should he get a go as FM or another cabinet position ?

    Mr Kelly deserves a higher profile I think.

    by Doyley on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:36 pm

  24. Yeah, whatever, Mick. You tories are just having a temper tantrum because an opportunity for instant election has been yet again seized from your grasp, and once again you’re back to the “Oooh, we’ll get you next year! You’ll see!” taunts.

    Indeed we will see, and it’ll be after the ALP under Julia Gillard’s leadership completes its progressive legacy to present to the electorate, not before.

    If the people of Australia are willing to put their destinies in Tony Abbott’s hands even then, then so be it. But we think they’re better than that.

    by Von Kirsdarke on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:36 pm

  25. This little black duck

    poroti,

    I was thinking more of :monkey: policies.

    Goodness gracious me :monkey: and policies in the same sentence !!! Sacre beaujolais !

    by poroti on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:36 pm

  26. OMG what has happened to the ABC news online homepage? It’s gone font size overload.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/

    by confessions on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:37 pm

  27. Well actually, it is the electorate.

    That’s who I meant. ‘We’ as in we people who vote according to which party we think has the best policies. Not the “rusted on” party members who don’t seem to give a rat’s arse whether the party has good policies or not, or can implement them or not.

    I know, I know, it’s a very outdated notion to vote on actual policies and not on irrelevant ideologies or charismatic politicians – but there are still a few of us – probably just enough to swing the election.

    At least that’s my hope.

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:37 pm

  28. Four more bills passed in HoR today.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:39 pm

  29. Doyley:

    Agree Kelly should move into the ministry. But IMO Immigration is a graveyard shift which Labor shouldn’t waste its up and comers on.

    by confessions on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:40 pm

  30. OMG what has happened to the ABC news online homepage? It’s gone font size overload.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/

    Bugger! If they keep that up I’m going to need a bigger screen!

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  31. Four more bills passed in HoR today.

    I blame Julia Gillard.

    by confessions on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  32. Easy to see what it would have been like if Rudd had won today.

    The stories being run on ABC current affairs shows are thinly re-edited shit sheets on Rudd.

    Journos have suddenly discovered that Rudd leaked, back-stabbed and white-anted.

    They can’t let it go. What will they write about over the next weeks and months?

    And what is it with Annabel Crabbe’s new wardrobe? Did she open up an old chest of drawers and find all her Mum’s old frocks?

    by Bushfire Bill on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  33. Four more bills passed in HoR today.

    I blame Julia Gillard.

    No Fess, i blame Kevin Rudd

    by The Finnigans on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:42 pm

  34. And what is it with Annabel Crabbe’s new wardrobe? Did she open up an old chest of drawers and find all her Mum’s old frocks?

    No, that was a left over when Maria used the curtain material to make dresses for the Von Trapp children.

    by The Finnigans on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:44 pm

  35. confessions

    Four more bills passed in HoR today.

    I blame Julia Gillard.

    Bugger ! I thought the “carbon tax” was to blame :lol:

    by poroti on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:44 pm

  36. Worth a giggle. Diddums!

    Dan Sabbagh@dansabbagh
    Essentially, if the police investigation follows through this is the end of chequebook journalism where public officials are involved.
    27 Feb 12
    and

    Dan Sabbagh@dansabbagh
    No wonder the Sun has been complaining about the bribery act for months; that way of doing things, ie paying for tips and stories, is over.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:45 pm

  37. finns

    i blame the bilbo’s

    by gusface on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:45 pm

  38. Four more bills passed in HoR today.

    I blame Julia Gillard.

    Bills will always be bigger under a Coalition government!

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:45 pm

  39. confessions @728,

    Fair Enough re Immigration.

    I would like to see Mr Bowen moved. I think he has the ability to put the message out there. Where to put him is the question. Also it would be a good look as well.

    Who “deserves ” Immigration ?

    by Doyley on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:46 pm

  40. The way some armchair critics would have it, the government has a majority of about 20 seats and therefore is in a position to carry out radical reform.

    The reality is that Gillard is managing a tough reform agenda which, because of the skinny margin, means it is compromise, compromise, compromise.

    From Day 1 of this government, many of us here recognised that the mere survival of Labor in office was no assured thing.

    Attacked by all and sundry from the word go, we sweated to see whether the Indies would go with Labor, then we sweated through all kinds of trials and tribulations waiting for the Senate to stop being feral to Labor and getting the carbon tax through – hostile, hostile stuff.

    This will not end until 2013.

    For mine, I would do it all over again because I sense the party is trying to get something done while everyone else has the luxury of sitting on the side lines and whingeing.

    We have been over and over again all the 1001 flaws Julia Gillard is supposed to have, but I doubt there is one other politician in Australia who could match her current performance, given the tough set of cards she has been dealt – not Rudd, not Abbott not Turnbull, not Smith, not Shorten and not nobody.

    My greatest concern about Labor – and something I have mentioned before – is that it will be facing an election for a third term. A tough call. Labor, by 2013 will have been in office 7 years and I gather, is already the third longest Labor regime Federally.

    For mine, when some of the coming legislation is in place and the legacy is cemented in, then if the conservatives do get back in, this will be the choice of the Oz electorate.

    In actual fact, last winter was where it all hit a very low level.

    The only real fear I have ever had is Labor doing itself in and this almost came about with Rudd’s self-serving undermining of the party.

    It is not Gillard who is on notice from Rudd, it is Rudd who is on notice with a good slab of the Labor party and its supporters.

    by Tricot on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:47 pm

  41. finns

    saw lyndal c this am

    thought she had macramed herself

    what gives with the abc sheilas?

    by gusface on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:47 pm

  42. Oscar @ 726

    I know, I know, it’s a very outdated notion to vote on actual policies and not on irrelevant ideologies or charismatic politicians – but there are still a few of us – probably just enough to swing the election.

    Well that’s a no-brainer when one party is a policy vacuum.

    by bemused on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  43. ‘sHonour is suggesting that the Met didn’t make enough “use” of the stuff they had about Mulcaire.

    Neil Garnham QC, acting for the Metropolitan police, is on the other end of this one.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:49 pm

  44. Well that’s a no-brainer when one party is a policy vacuum.

    Can’t disagree on that one :)

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:50 pm

  45. imean 150kfor LC and 250k for crabs

    surelythey could buy something

    well, decent

    by gusface on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:50 pm

  46. Just a reminder and for a good laugh. Just over a week ago where Shanananana made a big fool of himself:

    Kevin Rudd marches towards Labor leadership challenge
    BY: DENNIS SHANAHAN AND SID MAHER From: The Australian February 18, 2012 1:22AM

    KEVIN Rudd is prepared to challenge Julia Gillard as prime minister next month, before the Queensland election and the federal budget parliamentary session.

    The former Labor leader is readying for a strike at regaining the top job in the final March sitting of parliament as Labor MPs fall away from supporting the Prime Minister.

    Senior cabinet ministers expect a challenge during the Queensland election campaign, despite the potential damage to Anna Bligh's hopes of re-election and claims the Foreign Minister "doesn't have the numbers" or is afraid to "put up or shut up".

    The rapid shift of support within the Labor parliamentary caucus in the past two sitting weeks has convinced Mr Rudd's supporters he has 40 of the 52 votes he requires to win a challenge.

    Gillard supporters estimate the Prime Minister has 45 votes, with the rest of the 103 Labor MPs and senators undecided.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kevin-rudd-marches-towards-labor-leadership-challenge/story-fn59niix-1226274289396

    by The Finnigans on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:51 pm

  47. Neil Garnham QC would be better off doing a bit more “yes, sir” and less arguing.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm

  48. 250k for crabs

    Gussie, they tried to extract every pound of Crabby like the cokkie show. But she aint no Nigella’s choc sucking tease.

    by The Finnigans on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm

  49. The rapid shift of support within the Labor parliamentary caucus in the past two sitting weeks has convinced Mr Rudd's supporters he has 40 of the 52 votes he requires to win a challenge.

    Rudd may well be the last person in Australia who still has a paid subscription to the OO.

    And he obviously believed every word they printed – why wouldn’t he when they had an impeccable source – him!

    by Oscar on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:54 pm

  50. No way Nigella would have been seen dead or alive in La Belle’s green thing.

    by This little black duck on Feb 27, 2012 at 10:55 pm

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