Crikey



Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

4059 Responses

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  1. Cheers Gus. If you’re defending Arbib at this point I’d suggest youre out of sync with our recently confirmed PM.

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:04 am

  2. I wouldn’t worry about Rudd – he’s stinking rich, his wife is even more stinking rich, his son is getting married, his daughter is having a baby – he’ll find plenty to occupy himself with in the coming months.
    And I take him at his word – he won’t challenge her again, he’ll be a constructive backbencher.
    Bill Shorten on the other hand – he’s got definite ambitions, and if Julia slips up again before the next election………..;)

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:05 am

  3. At least the trains ran on time, Deblonay.

    by William Bowe on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:05 am

  4. rad

    believe or not

    arbib is a phenomenal organiser

    post wiki he will come in handy

    ;)

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:05 am

  5. He’s a realist:

    1.02pm: Of his meeting with Blair, Paddick says: “When you sit down in the commissioner’s office and tell him what he has said in public isn’t true you quickly realise your career is limited.”

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:05 am

  6. It is an awfully long way from the world stage to the backbench of the HOR. He is entitled to a new start.It is an awfully long way from the world stage to the backbench of the HOR. He is entitled to a new start.

    He needs to show some support for the party which enables him to draw a salary for a start.

    Let the Rudd era be a lesson to Labor never to turn its back on its collectivist roots in favour of the power of the individual. The Rudd era needs to be ended, and he needs to back up his words in his presser today with the substance of action.

    Only time will determine whether Rudd has truly accepted the Caucus vote.

    by confessions on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:06 am

  7. Rosemour , your key board is playing up like Greentards/ ? You also sound unhinged like him too /?

    by Lord Barry Bonkton on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:07 am

  8. At least the trains ran on time, Deblonay.

    Edith Piaf made sure of that

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:07 am

  9. R

    I don’t think it is evens. but the 2PP trend is heading in the right direction. Labor has made most of the electorally difficult decisions. Mr Abbott will find it a bit more difficult without his inside runner.
    The Coalition is going to have to come clean on it’s policy coatings. It will not be pretty. As the Coalition 2PP tide recedes, the tensions inside the Liberal Party will increase. It will be their turn to do DISUNITY IS DEATH. All in all, I am far more optimistic today than I was this time a month ago.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:08 am

  10. The jury is still out on Gillard – she’s got the clear air she and her supporters wanted, can she now deliver?

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:08 am

  11. I’m warming to Paddick. If he is lying he is telling a very strange story.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:08 am

  12. lord barry

    gtard is shows ahem doppelganger

    i dubt shows shares it around

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:09 am

  13. Confessions: the factions wield too much power.
    Sorry, but I’m not enamoured of Labor’s current structure.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:09 am

  14. Bill Shorten on the other hand – he’s got definite ambitions, and if Julia slips up again before the next election………..;)

    TLM, I thought you would have picked up on this earlier – Windsor’s words I will not support an Abbott government.

    Do you understand now why the opposition will call a spill at their leisure?

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:10 am

  15. rad

    believe or not

    arbib is a phenomenal organiser

    post wiki he will come in handy

    His loyalty is not to the Australian people. He can suffer in his jocks.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:11 am

  16. b

    btw

    alonga time ago umentioned u couldnt even make it as corporal 2nd class

    upon consultation with the 6.5 stars executive (well all 1 of us)

    I can proudly announce u are the latest 6.5 stars generals

    ON 2 Conditions

    1. dont tell finns

    2. see 1

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:12 am

  17. BW, you are trippin.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:12 am

  18. Anyway, I take shuffling Arbib out as a sign of good faith from Gillard, and a break with the bad stuff from 2010.

    Wise move. I was impressed. I agree he took it on the chin well in the presser. But leaking internal matters to foreign intel is pretty low in my book. Im yet to hear a defence of these actions.

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:13 am

  19. The jury is still out on Gillard – she’s got the clear air she and her supporters wanted, can she now deliver?

    All that is left for her to deliver is her resignation. She is gawn. 26% popularity is unrecoverable, particularly in these circumstances.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:13 am

  20. rad

    ok

    I will play

    who is arbibs ‘loyalty’ to?

    NB he is effectively now a umble citizen

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:13 am

  21. Im yet to hear a defence of these actions.

    and u never will

    unless u can claim some uber details re our alliance with the yanks

    put a cork in it

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:15 am

  22. Radguy: I’m as sceptical as you, I remain to be convinced that Julia’s got the right stuff. She’s not my pick, but I’ve been out of step with Labor since 2010.
    Perhaps having defeated Rudd comprehensively will give her the confidence to do better in her leadership?

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:16 am

  23. Expect a lot more indies in parl if she doesn’t resign.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:16 am

  24. rad

    damn u can spin

    btw

    what is ur basis for stasis re gillards approval

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:17 am

  25. Everyone’s entitled to their view, Gus.

    Chill it.

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:17 am

  26. R
    I am not a betting man, but I bet the odds on a return of the Labor Government are longer than they should be.

    by Boerwar on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:18 am

  27. Expect a lot more indies in parl if she doesn’t resign.

    oh no

    from the macabre to the bizzare

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:18 am

  28. TLM – What does your head and heart say?

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:19 am

  29. I am not a betting man, but I bet the odds on a return of the Labor Government are longer than they should be.

    They are exactly where they should be, unless we backtrack all the way back to 2010.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:20 am

  30. Everyone’s entitled to their view, Gus.

    true

    but not their facts

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:20 am

  31. My head tells me that Abbott will win the next election, probably narrowly, but he’ll still win.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:21 am

  32. Hartcher is still heartbroken, good times: http://www.smh.com.au/national/blood-and-spittle-on-pub-floor-to-little-avail-20120227-1tyye.html

    by rishane on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:21 am

  33. what is ur basis for stasis re gillards approval

    You really only get one chance with Aussies. That is why Turnbull will not be opposition leader.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:21 am

  34. unless u can claim some uber details re our alliance with the yanks

    Ok here’s fact: Our formal intel sharing arrangements do not include senators from NSW

    by lefty e on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:21 am

  35. My head tells me that Abbott will win the next election, probably narrowly, but he’ll still win.

    Maybe, but this is only if ALP is silly enough not to put Rudd up.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:22 am

  36. We like yanks, but not their commercial interests in our politics.

    Now all – think of Anna Bligh and Queensland.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:23 am

  37. We can agree on one thing: Anna Bligh is screwed.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:24 am

  38. Did you know that when Arbib first rose to prominence in 2005, he was introduced by the Australian newspaper in a bio piece headlined “The Right’s friendly new face”?

    by ___cog___ on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:25 am

  39. LEFTY

    bzzt

    wrong

    as wiki showed, intel assets are drawn from all walks of life

    Do U srsly think arbib is some sorta 007

    sheesh

    btw, glad the yanks are talking to lab peeps rather than fib peeps

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:25 am

  40. The Guardian’s summary of this morning’s Leveson:

    Leveson inquiry: Sue Akers, Lord Prescott, Brian Paddick – live
    • Met hacking chief: ‘culture at the Sun of illegal payments’
    • Sun journalist got £150k+ for sources, including public officials
    • NI email suggests Brooks and Coulson knew extent of hacking in September 2006
    • Charlotte Church settles hacking case for £600,000

    Pretty serious stuff.

    Happy for Ms Church

    No summary of Paddick’s appearance so far.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:25 am

  41. b

    ur post disappeared

    u truly iz a 6.5

    :)

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:27 am

  42. btw, glad the yanks are talking to lab peeps rather than fib peeps

    Come on Gus, you are smarter than this.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:28 am

  43. Been tied up most of the day but this occasion has been one of those where the lead up was a lot more exciting than the climax. PB going off line just at the critical moment just added to the days events.

    by DavidWH on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:28 am

  44. Quality journalism from Mr Hatchet:

    The slow-talking one who’d just been droning on at the bar and surprised everyone with her sudden savagery, Julia Gillard, was wiping the blood and spittle away and trying to look dignified.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:28 am

  45. I wouldn’t worry about Rudd – he’s stinking rich, his wife is even more stinking rich, his son is getting married, his daughter is having a baby – he’ll find plenty to occupy himself with in the coming months.
    And I take him at his word – he won’t challenge her again, he’ll be a constructive backbencher.
    Bill Shorten on the other hand – he’s got definite ambitions, and if Julia slips up again before the next election………..;)

    Yeah a constructive backbencher … *rolls eyes* he’ll just be resting lots for the summons to return to lead, and lots more 24.7 Rudd nights where he checks the short lists of graduate applications to the PS because he is a micro manager.

    by WeWantPaul on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:28 am

  46. DavidWH,

    New server(s) coming!

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:29 am

  47. rad

    if only u were

    :(

    by gusface on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:29 am

  48. Anna Bligh will be less screwed if we get a resignation.

    Trust the indies, they like Rudd and the fibs haven’t got a strategy at the moment.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:30 am

  49. Hope Crikey is doing mirror servers for their critical applications, like PB.

    by This little black duck on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:30 am

  50. Gus, victory to the ALP is not assured. I take no comfort in this position.

    Just happy that common sense is sssslllooowwwlllyy coming back.

    by Radguy on Feb 28, 2012 at 12:31 am

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