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Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard's winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning's Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at t

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Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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4059 comments

4,059 thoughts on “Gillard 71, Rudd 31

  1. Gorgeous Dunny

    [geoffrey
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink

    even bob ellis knew about the carr offer – this is more than a leak, it is a warragamba overflow]

    You can turn a phrase well at times, geoffrey.

  2. ShowsOn

    [GG

    I cant remember the ending of part 1.]
    There were credits where it lists all the actors and crew that made the film.

    I like the credits for Part II better.

  3. ShowsOn

    McClleand would be a good minister for foreign affairs.

  4. leone

    Sigh! Sky News is STILL pushing the Bob Carr story. They happily admit the PM said she didn’t ask CArr to fill the senate spot and that CArr confirmed this, then they just keep going with ‘but some things still need to be explained…’

    I think a lot of journos, news hacks and PBers need to be reminded – or informed for the very first time- about the way a senate vacancy is filled. So read this –
    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/publications.nsf/key/Factsheet06-CasualvacanciesintheSenate/$File/Fact+sheet+06+Casual+vacancies+in+the+Senate.pdf

    The PM does not, repeat, does not choose a new senator. The NSW parliament has that duty and with a coalition government you never know what might happen. Think back to the troubles Whitlam had with state governments electing dodgy candidates.

    If the PM talked to Bob Carr so what? She might have wanted his advice on possible candidates.

    The procedure for filling a casual Senate vacancy rules out ‘hissy fits’ from federal Labor MPs. All that crap about Smith vetoing Carr is bulldust. I can’tbelieve that all those learned journos and highly educated Opposition MPs don’t understand the process.

    Someone insignificant in NSW Labor probably blabbed to someone else who blabbed to Shanners that the PM had talked to Bob Carr. Shanners then put two and two together, came up with eleventy three and rushed to get his garbage into the papers.

  5. Greensborough Growler

    Showsy,

    I see you are a movie boof as well as a real life boof.

  6. ShowsOn

    Or what about Bob Carr?

  7. DavidWH

    Leone so you don’t think NSW Labor discussed the vacancy with anyone in federal Labor?

  8. Leroy

    http://delimiter.com.au/2012/03/01/turnbull-again-misleads-the-public-on-nbn/

    [ANALYSIS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS – Written by Renai LeMay on Thursday, March 1, 2012 16:40 – 1 Comment

    Turnbull again misleads public on NBN

    analysis Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has this week again made a number of misleading and factually inaccurate statements in a series of interviews and comments about the Government’s National Broadband Network project, on topics ranging from the technology used in the project to its cost and retail broadband prices.]
    good detailed response

  9. Oscar

    [ Sigh! Sky News is STILL pushing the Bob Carr story. ]

    Forget about it. It will be old news tomorrow – as will the real story that these media mongrels hope most people will have missed today … which is the heir of Mordor falling on his sword after having his various crimes and misdemenours exposed so publicly in the UK.

    What odds he’ll turn up back here in the colonies shortly? After all, compared to our usual media bods, James Mordor is a perfect paragon of honesty and integrity!

  10. Gorgeous Dunny

    I earlier mentioned the big task ahead for Combet in soothing industry and employees concerns about the impact of carbon pricing.

    It does run deep. I had a passenger, a meatworker, in the cab. He claimed to have been addressed by management that their current power bills of $5000 per month will increase by 100%. I think Dare reported something similar from some manufacturers in her area.

    That figure doesn’t seem to make sense from the Treasury estimates. From memory they calculated a maximum of about 15%, probably before offsets or compensation allowances kicked in.

    Either Treasury has got it terribly wrong, or someone is spreading misinformation.

  11. ShowsOn

    [Leone so you don’t think NSW Labor discussed the vacancy with anyone in federal Labor?]
    This morning I heard that Michael Fullilove is nominating:
    http://www.lowyinstitute.org/StaffBio.asp?pid=975

    I feel he would be a better candidate. Handing a casual Senate vacancy to Warren Mundine just seems too tokenistic for my liking. He should be pre-selected to a safe house seat instead, like Reid or Blaxland.

    The first indigenous Labor MP should be elected by the people rather than just appointed by the NSW parliament.

  12. ShowsOn

    [Showsy,

    I see you are a movie boof as well as a real life boot.]

    [I have always preferred the reflection of the life to life itself.]
    – Francois Truffaut

  13. Mod Lib

    [Sigh! Sky News is STILL pushing the Bob Carr story.]

    As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

  14. Oscar

    [ Either Treasury has got it terribly wrong, or someone is spreading misinformation. ]

    Hmmm … now let me think … which one is more likely … 🙂

  15. Oscar

    [ As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet. ]

    Aren’t they supposed to be a news outlet?

  16. Mod Lib

    How is it not news that the PM said talk of her talking to Bob Carr was “completely untrue, completely untrue” only to find today it was “completely true” that she talked to him?

  17. daretotread

    GD
    It is a bit of both

    Electricity prices are reportedly set to sour at about 10% a year (compound) which does mean doubling in the near future

    Electricity prices can be quite crippling for small businesses and costs of $2-3000 per month not uncommon.

    Electricity costs are approaching wage costs for many.

  18. leone

    DAvidWH

    I’m sure people from federal Labor discussed possible candidates with NSW Labor people, you’d expect that they would. I can’t see anything wrong with phone calls for this reason. But as I said, it all depends on the NSW parliament, not on Julia Gillard or Stephen Smith.

  19. Oscar

    [ How is it not news that the PM said talk of her talking to Bob Carr was “completely untrue, completely untrue” only to find today it was “completely true” that she talked to him? ]

    What is “completely untrue” is your bizarre and twisted version of events.

  20. Jackol

    As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

    I still haven’t heard anything that resembles a newsworthy element about this “incident”.

    The original reports were trying to make something out of the fact that there was some pushback about a suggestion that Bob Carr could get FA, but … that’s it. It doesn’t mean anything to anyone, and once Bob Carr said he wasn’t interested, that was it. Nothing will come of it.

    The original “Factions!” angle was a non-story anyway, and doesn’t appear to have any basis in fact.

    Now, with Julia Gillard dismissing the original report, the angle is “Untrustworthy!” – again, without any evidence beyond some suggestion that Julia Gillard should have been more precise about exactly which bits of the original story were “completely untrue”.

    Christ on a cracker, the whole thing is absurd nonsense.

  21. Mod Lib

    Oscar:

    If you are a door-knocker for the ALP, please make the point that there was nothing misleading about Gillard’s statement of yesterday…should go down a treat I reckon!

    🙂

  22. MTBW

    leone

    [it all depends on the NSW parliament]

    No it doesn’t! The ALP selects the candidate to replace Arbib/

  23. Mod Lib

    [Christ on a cracker, the whole thing is absurd nonsense.]

    A PM getting caught telling a porker is newsworthy to non ALP-hack Australians

  24. DavidWH

    Leone I agree with you on both counts. The issue, if there is one, seems to be more about how it was handled rather than what may have been proposed.

  25. Think Big

    [A PM getting caught telling a porker is newsworthy to non ALP-hack Australians]

    The media telling porkies is an everyday occurence however and barely raises any eyebrows

  26. ltep

    [How is it not news that the PM said talk of her talking to Bob Carr was “completely untrue, completely untrue” only to find today it was “completely true” that she talked to him?]

    So the question was simply “Did you talk to Bob Carr”?

  27. Thornleigh Labor Man

    There’s an obvious solution for Gillard, in relation to the Foreign Affairs portfolio: give Kevin Rudd his job back.
    And don’t demote Bowen, McClelland, Carr, Ferguson.

    She won’t do the first, obviously, but will she have the good sense not to take out retribution on McClelland and Carr(who I presume are the most endangered of the Ruddites)?

  28. ltep

    When the thing that saves Carr from demotion is his factional support will people still be decrying the ‘faceless men’ and the power of the factions?

  29. Jackol

    A PM getting caught telling a porker is newsworthy to non ALP-hack Australians

    What “porker”?

    The story in the Australian was headlined “Mutiny Kills PM’s Bob Carr Plan” with a subheadline “Rebellion by Ministers Undermines Gillard’s Newfound Authority”.

    No evidence for a “Mutiny” or a “Rebellion by Ministers”, and I think it is quite reasonable to describe that story as “Completely Untrue”.

    Provide any evidence that Julia Gillard was suggesting that “Completely Untrue” related in any way to her approaching Bob Carr?

  30. zoidlord

    @leroy/3908,

    No surprise there!

  31. Lord Barry Bonkton

    Jen , great photo. Ha Ha Ha , have saved it.

  32. This little black duck

    Mr Palmer and his Football Australia might have the odd problem with FIFA.

    Billionaire Clive Palmer has announced he is starting an independent football body called Football Australia, aimed at holding Football Federation Australia (FFA) accountable for running the game.

    h­ttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-01/palmer-initiates-independent-football-body/3863084

  33. Mod Lib

    The good thing is that, finally, some of the media will pursue the sneaky legalise wording Gillard uses and ask for absolute specifics.

    I have been saying for 18 months that we didn’t know why Rudd was deposed, roundly criticised by the PBers, only to find on Monday that Gillard was admitting exactly that!

    …just in case you guys thought I hadn’t noticed!!!!

  34. Gary Sparrow

    So it took 24 hours to destroy her legitimacy as PM after winning the ballot.

    Me thinks 71 people have their collective heads in the sand eh Mod Lib?

  35. Oscar

    [ If you are a door-knocker for the ALP, please make the point that there was nothing misleading about Gillard’s statement of yesterday…should go down a treat I reckon! ]

    Okay, Mod Lib.

    I’ve just held my nose and re-read the confected nonsense contained in the various stories on this subject on the OO website (I’m presuming you are using this as your primary source of information? Or is it some other Murdoch rag that is your primary source?). In any case, I cannot find any possible interpretation of events that makes this anything more than a desperate beat up.

    But perhaps I am simply not clever enough to understand. I certainly had trouble following Shamaham’s particular brand of logic – espcecially since his main argument seemed to rest on the fact that Gillard was obviously lying when she said the story was untrue because the story was very nearly true. Or something like that.

    Perhaps you would like to do me a favor and lay out a timeline of events and statements that you think substantiates your claims that there is any story here? Other than the obvious one, I mean – i.e. that the OO just likes to make shit up.

  36. This little black duck

    Leveson tonight should be QI:

    evidence from former Met commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson, ex-assistant commissioner John Yates, former assistant commissioner Andy Hayman and ex-deputy assistant commissioner Peter Clarke.

    h­ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/29/leveson-inquiry-williams-maberly-surtees-live

  37. Aguirre

    As they absolutely should, unless they are meant to be an ALP Press outlet.

    Which they’re not. Any suggestion that they are or should be is utterly abhorrent.

    They’re a Coalition press outlet.

  38. Diogenes

    TLBD

    Palmer is just starting a think tank about soccer in Oz. It’s not a rival league; basically it will be his lobby group.

  39. Jackol

    Oh, ModLib, have a look at how the ABC reported the context of the “Completely Untrue”:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-29/carr-foreign-ministry-speculation/3860482

    Straight after the shots of the front page story in the Australian with “Mutiny Kills PM’s Bob Carr Plan” “Rebellion by Ministers Undermines Gillard’s Newfound Authority”, so it was clearly in relation to that story. That story was obviously trying to play up “division within the ALP” “Julia Gillard lacks authority”; describing it as Completely Untrue is obviously in reference to the Mutiny/Rebellion aspects.

    That there are other facts contained within the story is irrelevant. The context is clear, unless you are wilfully blind. Yet another bootstrapping non-story to use as evidence of Julia Gillard being “untrustworthy” and a “failure”.

    Someone get me a bucket.

  40. Mod Lib

    Aguirre:

    I would be interested to hear your perspective of Carrgate….

  41. roaldan1000

    ML is right, the story was not “completely” untrue.

    Okay, Carr wasn’t spoken to before the weekend, he wasn’t offered the FM post by the PM and there wasn’t a mutiny, which was the thrust of the story., but let’s not quibble over irrelevancies like that.

    It is outrageous that, just because a few of the accusations made in the story were compeletely untrue, the PM called the whole story completely untrue.

    Bits of it were true, Carr is called Carr, for example and that should be enough for our PM to bend the knee to the other minor inaccuracies.

    It is this lazy insistence on actually telling the truth in stories that is threatening our freedom of speech and the very existence of our Australian way of life.

    Yes, it might be slightly contradictory that reaction to a story in which the salient points were made up is now being used to paint the PM as a liar, but that’s modern day political coverage for you.

  42. poroti

    Mod Lib

    [The good thing is that, finally, some of the media will pursue the sneaky legalise wording Gillard uses and ask for absolute specifics.]
    Mod Lib when it came to legalise sneaky and weasel words there is only one king .So all hail King John “I was not informed” Howard. All others pale into insignificance.

  43. zoidlord

    @Mod Lib/3934,

    I never critisised rudd, but I think he’s got an ego problem.

    There is an old saying, there is plenty ways to skin a cat, and one of the was to be premier of QLD.

  44. Thornleigh Labor Man

    Gary Sparrow: never doubt the collective wisdom of the Labor Caucus. 🙂

  45. leone

    [No it doesn’t! The ALP selects the candidate to replace Arbib/]

    And the NSW Parliament in a joint sitting gets to vote on that candidate. Here’s how it happens –
    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LC20111013002

    Simple, all over in minutes and Arthur Sinodonis fills the vacancy created whenh Helen Coonan left.

    But they can vote no. Take a look at what happened to Whitlam after Jim Cairns’ dismissal. Labor put up Mal Colston (not such a great choice) and the Bjelke Petersen government knocked him back twice. Labor refused to put up another candidate so Joh did it for them. He chose Albert Field and convinced parliament to vote for him. Field declared that he would not support Whitalm. It got even messier when Labor expelled Field for standing against Colston, with MPs boycotting his swearing in ceremony.

    If Fatty O’Barrell has a bad hair day who knows….

  46. Jackol

    Leone – stop pursuing that one, it’s a formality now after the 1977 referendum.

  47. Thornleigh Labor Man

    Glen/Gary Sparrow: Where has Bruce Bilson been lately? Very quiet shadow minister. If he’s really going to take Abbott’s job, he better start campaigning for it. 🙂

  48. Oscar

    [ If he’s really going to take Abbott’s job ]

    Abbott’s job is to be trounced at the next election, and so far he’s exceeding his KPIs.

  49. joe2

    roaldan1000, nice with koala stamp.