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Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend's Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polli

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Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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2750 comments

2,750 thoughts on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

  1. Oscar

    50-50 at this point in the election cycle will do me!

  2. Jackol

    Well 50-50 less 3% ALP bias, maybe 47-53 which is not so bad.

    BUT, it’s Morgan. Worse it’s F2F. Nothing to see here, move along move along.

  3. triton

    Is anyone else enjoying Kelly O’Dwyer on The Nation? No?

  4. Gary Sparrow

    No Triton I’m watching an episode of The Young Adventures of Indiana Jones.

  5. Oscar

    [ BUT, it’s Morgan. Worse it’s F2F. Nothing to see here, move along move along. ]

    Hey Jackol, no offence – but if the rightards can make something out of nothing WRT the “Carr Smash”, aren’t we at least entitled to crow about actual good polls????

  6. confessions

    And me as well Oscar.

    Seems there’s been an ever so slight narrowing over the past few months. Will it continue, that is the question.

  7. confessions

    [Antony Green ‏ @AntonyGreenABC
    Katter’s Australian Party applies to suspend voting in Qld election. Reason explained here http://bit.ly/yDJjh9 #qldvotes ]

  8. jenauthor

    While I’m not going to happy dance, the trend is slowly continuing.

    If the govt can just get past all this confected nonsense frm the opps & media, real headway will be made.

    The best way to shut these r-w fools in media & opp benches up is with good polling numbers (as that is mostly what they use to reinforce a negative impression of govt & PM)

    In some ways, I think this might be a bit delusional on the opps part – they are being policy lazy bc they think they will romp it in without any effort.

    They underestimate both the ALP and the electorate, methinks.

  9. The Finnigans

    [Is anyone else enjoying Kelly O’Dwyer on The Nation? No?]

    Had to turn it off and watch “Wild India” instead

  10. Marrickville Mauler

    you wouldnt read about (thanks Midnight Oil)

    meanwhile in breaking news PM Gillard fails to deny hacking phones of murdered schoolgirls in sufficient detail to appease Murdoch press and their acolytes … oh, hang on …

    As a moderate lefty it is really embarrassing to think that all the Trots and communications students and the like that I was at uni with were actually right about the capitalist press. Mining billionaires owning big slices of media and donating $3mill a year to the tories to avoid paying tax? Please, give it up. What? its all true? oh no …

  11. Jackol

    if the rightards can make something out of nothing WRT the “Carr Smash”, aren’t we at least entitled to crow about actual good polls????

    It’s just my pessimistic nature. I want to base my hope on things that are reliable and that I can believe in.

    “Morgan” “reliable” “believe” are words that just don’t go in the same sentence.

  12. Boerwar

    Surely Mr Abbott, in his quest for an improved shadow ministry, should promote talent such as K’OD so obviously believes she has?

    Let us hope that it does not become a case of forever the bridesmaid.

    Surely it would be inappropriate to promote that Johnny-come-lately, Mr Sinodinod ahead of Ms Kelly?

    What is Mr Abbott thinking?

  13. Boerwar

    It would be like a kick in the kids.

  14. Oscar

    [ “Morgan” “reliable” “believe” are words that just don’t go in the same sentence. ]

    Yes, I see what your saying. But what do you think a rightard who was closing in the polls after being behind would take from this a result like this? – well, I’ll tell you …

    50 – 50!!!! Eat that! Woohoo!!!!

  15. rishane

    Anyone else find it amusing how there’s the constant stories about how JG has no ‘authority’ when the journos keep forgetting she’s running a minority government?

  16. Boerwar

    Or maybe a kick in the kids.

  17. poroti

    Oscar

    [50-50 at this point in the election cycle will do me!]
    I like to image “the narrowning” as the shrinkage of Tones budgie smugglers.

  18. Oscar

    [ Anyone else find it amusing how there’s the constant stories about how JG has no ‘authority’ when the journos keep forgetting she’s running a minority government? ]

    So those 250+ bills though the parliament – of which testicle-less Tony has been unable to stop or amend a single one – should all be stamped ‘RESCINDED: NO AUTHORITY’?

  19. Boerwar

    Or maybe a kick in the kods.

  20. Marrickville Mauler

    Finns #7 that is indeed great. A bit confusing at first, since Albo didnt have that much hair even in the 80s.

    A missed opportunity though to do something with Chewie … Dick Adams? Kim Carr?

    KR as C3PO for that matter? (3 million forms of communication and all that)

  21. shellbell

    Thanks BW for your thoughts on how the new FM might approach the role

  22. lizzie

    After the trauma of the past week, I’ll take it 😀

  23. Oscar

    [ Or maybe a kick in the kods. ]

    Is a “kick in the knads” the phrase you’re after, BW?

    You really need to turn off auto-correct 🙂

  24. gusface

    [The only people who know whether an ALP Prime Minister spoke to an ALP Premier about an ALP Cabinet position is the ALP.]

    Correct

    [If the Media got wind of it, then it must have come from the ALP.]

    Incorrect

    There are ways cf NOTW et al to gather news, wouldnt surprise me if this was a recent example

  25. fredn

    Well we have been through round 17 of the Ruddrestoration, wich ended in a Rudd dubbing. The press are now going on and one over Carr, and the exact words the PM may or may not have used. One thing is for sure the press don’t make up their crap cause it might be interesting.

    And the polls in the vacuum continue to drift to labor.

    What sort of press unhinging are we to see when it’s 48 -52 to Labor.

  26. poroti

    lizzie

    [After the trauma of the past week, I’ll take it 😆 ]
    A result like that in supposedly “the worst of times” for Labor writes in the sky in 100 meter letters “Tony Abbott 2013 ? You Lose”

  27. Gorgeous Dunny

    I always seem to a take a while to catch up. From the previous thread
    [Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    3955 smithe

    Ellis is an un-reconstructed Ruddista who has had at least one excruciatingly maudlin and boring paean to Rudd published on The Drum website in the last 12 months. Fair dinkum, it read like a print version of Don Mclean’s The Day the Music Died, dedicated to The Great Man hisself. ]

    I was drawn to his blog by the mention here. He has turned off Rudd in a big way: likened him to that Doc Martin character on TV, and suggested that he had aspergers. But it hasn’t converted him to Gillard. Most of his other writings don’t make much sense – so the Ruddistas needn’t take much offense from it.

    He is unreconstructed in regarding Beazley as a hero and the saviour of the Labor party. It is there that he loses me. As likeable as he may have been, I have come to the conclusion that Beazley’s leadership was a major liability for the Labor party throughout the Howard years. As is clear in the Latham Diaries, not only did he run away from the economic legacy of Hawke and Keating, he hardly developed any major policies, relying instead on an evening news style point-scoring and fighting yesterday’s battles (GST).

    Ironically, the very time he could have gone negative with success was in the 1998 campaign. But he chose the GST (with no alternative plan) and ignored Reith’s attack on the waterside workers with scab labor and bottom-of-the-harbor companies employing people. A simple campaign on ‘How safe is your job?’ with shots of those masked thugs and dogs, plus Howard and Reith shaking hands and backslapping in parliament would have cut through. He didn’t lose by much anyway.

    If Bob really feels that way, I don’t think there’s much hope. Such a wordsmith at his best, too, but always erratic.

  28. Boerwar

    Shell bell

    No worries. Most of it is guesswork. BTW, I did have cause to visit the Australian High Commission in Singapore today. The client service was excellent. The security was thorough but polite. There was not the slightest hint of xenophobic discrimination.

    Well done, Australia.

  29. gusface

    fredn

    the fact that social media has it all over the MSM, must be galling to the journos

    as i said last night

    the left owns social media

    Now we iz fighting on our ground

    😉

  30. Oscar

    [ What sort of press unhinging are we to see when it’s 48 -52 to Labor. ]

    Yes, it’s interesting to speculate just how unhinged the OO might get, isn’t it? …

    “Expose: Gillard descended from Aliens! Proof inside!”

    “Revealed: Rudd discovered in S&M dungeon, whipping hooker in Gillard mask!”

    “Exclusive: Low carbon levels linked to typhoid, tuberculosis and AIDS!”

  31. Danny Lewis

    Gusface: that would be the ultimate dilemma for News Limited, wouldn’t it?

    Option 1: Kill off the PM by proving – now and forever – that she’s a liar by producing the recorded conversation of her phone call to Bob Carr

    Option 2: Try to pretend you know stuff – but have no proof – because what is happening in the UK cannot be allowed to taint your business interests elsewhere.

    Poor Rupe 😀

  32. gusface

    danny

    there are caught out big time

    not that there was any ahem attempt to set this up

    no no no

    🙂

  33. Diogenes

    Finns

    george is very talented. I assume he is a professional designer.

  34. zoidlord

    If only there was a full investigation into the media like in the UK.

  35. poroti

    gusface
    [fredn

    the fact that social media has it all over the MSM, must be galling to the journos

    as i said last night

    the left owns social media]
    Witness Qantas,Coke and TAbbott getting pwned when they tried to use social media to look hip and cool. 😆

  36. Mod Lib

    [Incorrect

    There are ways cf NOTW et al to gather news, wouldnt surprise me if this was a recent example]

    Granted. That is possible too…

    I doubt it though, how stupid would they be hacking phones when the boss is resigning in the aftermath of hacking?

  37. Jackol

    Option 1: Kill off the PM by proving – now and forever – that she’s a liar by producing the recorded conversation of her phone call to Bob Carr

    The PM has not denied talking directly to Bob Carr – that is not what this is all about.

  38. gusface

    poroti

    toolman has tried to justify his helium induced tweeting to
    quote

    ‘bob carr made him do it’

    Nb that may be a tad incorrect quote

  39. poroti

    gusface
    [poroti

    toolman has tried to justify his helium induced tweeting to
    quote

    ‘bob carr made him do it’

    Nb that may be a tad incorrect quote]
    Gussie it is the vibe that counts, reality brings up the rear 🙂

  40. gusface

    mod

    i didnt say hacking phones

    👿

    It is a well known fact that Oz journos have incredibly large ears and acute hearing

    why if, grattan or some other esteemed journo was simply sitting on black mt in canberra, they would pretty well hear every convo on the east coast

    So yes it is plausible that on of the fearless journos was being an audio perv

  41. Diogenes

    I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.

  42. poroti

    Why is there any “controversy” over the next Australian FM ? Who could be better than……? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nULFMp4jKBo

  43. Gorgeous Dunny

    Of course you’re right, Jacko! It is Morgan f2f, the polling equivalent for Labor as talkback radio opinion is for Liberals.

    But let us draw a little illusory comfort. A 37.5 primary is getting closer to the light on the hill. Will we see the same as pre-christmas where I think it was Morgan the first to show a clawing back?

    Well, for all the media noise of the past four weeks, which have you believe Gillard-ALP disaster, there has been no backwards movement in support for Labor. If anything there has been a very weak movement forwards for Labor. Not much, mind, and might be explained by other factors, but it’s a liferaft to cling to.

    Time is very much on Labor’s side. Continued gradual movement up should take Labor close to 40 by July, and from then on they’ll take some stopping.

  44. gusface

    dio

    the kennet or prince charles ones werent ahem msgs

  45. Diogenes

    Mod Lib

    I’m happy to bucket Gillard if I think she’s stuffed up but I can’t see that she has done anything wrong here.

    I think she spoke to Carr and semi-offered him the Senate spot. He probably mentioned his “dream job” of FA, and she would have been non-committal.

    She probably sounded a few people out and one of them flipped out or told someone who flipped out, and they tried to kill it by leaking.

  46. Jackol

    I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.

    Yeah, they were just getting voicemail messages.

    Although, if they were in the habit of paying police and other officials for services rendered, who knows what other information they could have gotten hold of – Lawful Interception for hire anyone?

  47. Oscar

    [ I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages. ]

    JULIA: Oh, Hi Bob. It’s Julia. Call me as soon as you get this.

    BOB: Julia! Returning your call, babe. I hear you’ve got a vacancy to fill? Let’s do lunch!

    JULIA: Bob! Don’t you ever pick up? Yes, the FA dept … err … senate …. has a vacancy. Call me!

    BOB: Hey Julia. Just got a call from Crean! He sounded really pissed! Said I should not accept the job or he’d send the boys around. Honestly Julia, I think I’m going to have to give this one a miss! But let’s catch up soon, ok?

    JULIA: Yeah, me again, Bob. Sorry about all this. Let’s just forget the whole thing, ok? Oh, and if anybody asks if I called, let’s both just say we never spoke, ok?

  48. AaronH

    Jackol wrote: “The PM has not denied talking directly to Bob Carr – that is not what this is all about.”

    Read the newspapers, and you will think otherwise. The latest headline from The Australian is: “Yes, I did talk to Bob Carr, Julia Gillard admits”. They’re painting her as a pathological liar who is under the control of the factional bosses. Apparently, she lied about the conversation with Carr when the factional heavies leaned on her to appoint one of their chosen ones to the position instead.

    Of course, this is abject nonsense, but if that is what the public are told by the media repeatedly, then the truth becomes irrelevant. The vast majority of Murdoch press articles regarding Gillard insinuate that either she is a compulsive liar or that she can’t have breakfast of a morning without checking with Arbib which jam to spread on her toast.

    The disconnect between the media and reality is growing every day. They control the narrative, and with very little being done from Labor’s end to sell their own coherent vision, that is the way it will stay.

  49. The Finnigans

    Abbott’s parental leave taxes business 1.5% to pay for it. Yet, business has said nothing. If Labor’s, the business be in revolt by now

  50. Danny Lewis

    Jackol: I know. What I was facaeciously suggesting was if what THEY are saying is true, and if they know it because they had the PM’s phone tapped, then they had an option to effectively put up or shut up … except by putt up, they would have to admit they had the PM’s phone tapped.

    For myself, I actually don’t believe that part of the story is true in any case.

    I think what happened is:

    * some ALP hack in NSW put in the call to Carr and sounded him out both in terms of the Senate position and the FM post.

    * The PM got wind of it and contacted Carr to put him straight that any Cabinet post was HER decision to make and anyone else making such an approach was bang out of order.

    * She might have talked to him generally about the Senate position, I don’t know, but that actually doesn’t go to the crux of the allegations at any rate.

    * Carr indicated to her that he wasn’t interested – in either the Senate position or the FM post.

    * PM hangs up.

    END OF STORY.

    Incidentally, this also fits with the PM’s version of events and Carr’s, up to and including Carr’s original admission.

    Like I said before, it is so easy to put your own perspective on a conversation based upon hearing one half of it. You can also put two stories together and declare them to be different by reinterpretation, or you can declare them to be identical by reinterpretation.

    At the end of the day, the way you reinterpret is dependent on whether you want to see the best or the worst of any given situation.

    It would help if we had a media that did nothing more than keep us informed of FACTS, though, rather than spending their lives guessing, reading entrails and gossiping.

  51. poroti

    Diogenes

    [I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.]
    True but Strayans were in early back in 1987. Take Peacock and Kennett for instance. Heck no journo would ever think this might be a good jape to get in on would they 😉
    [“Howard. You’re a c*nt. You haven’t got my support, you never will have and I’m not going to rubbish you or the party tomorrow but I feel a lot better having told you you’re a c*nt]
    http://australianpolitics.com/1987/03/23/kennett-peacock-car-phone-conversation.html

  52. gusface

    dio

    btw

    say u r on a landline and are talking to someone on a mobile

    U can be hacked tres easily via the landline (both via remote and patching into the physical phone ine)

    mobile to mobile requires a bit more hi techery

    but it still can be done

    all u need is the handset unique id, and a bit of nouse

    if the devices are encrpted, den u have a problem

    I WOULD SUGGEST THE ALP IMMEDIATELY REVIEWS IT COMMUNICATIONS OPTIONS

  53. The Finnigans

    [Finns

    george is very talented. I assume he is a professional designer.]

    Diog, we are simply humble business people, scrapping for a living, being taxed to death, snowed under the bureaucracy and like Gerry we whinge a lot and often.

  54. Oscar

    [ The disconnect between the media and reality is growing every day. They control the narrative, and with very little being done from Labor’s end to sell their own coherent vision, that is the way it will stay. ]

    Yes! Thank goodness we have a fearless and independent public broadcaster that will report the facts in an unbiased and objective manner … oh, wait …

  55. Danny Lewis

    [except by putt up,]

    *put

    Obviously, they aren’t playing golf 😉

  56. Gorgeous Dunny

    Classic, Oscar!

    At last we have logical explanation of what happened, one where neither person lied, and how a News Ltd staffer might have found out.

    It’s odd that we have the Wrights and Crabb trying to be funny and you surpass them. It deserves MSM run.

  57. Mod Lib

    [Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    I’m happy to bucket Gillard if I think she’s stuffed up but I can’t see that she has done anything wrong here.

    I think she spoke to Carr and semi-offered him the Senate spot. He probably mentioned his “dream job” of FA, and she would have been non-committal.

    She probably sounded a few people out and one of them flipped out or told someone who flipped out, and they tried to kill it by leaking.]

    People may have misunderstood: I have no problem whatsoever with Gillard approaching Carr or offering him any job under her power.

    The issue is trying to kill off the story by just dismissing it repeatedly with the words completely untrue and refusing the journalist’s questions to explain what she meant. She knew exactly what she was doing, she didn’t want any discussion of another ALP leak so soon after saying all was right with the ALP world again…

    Unfortunately, the media have now cottoned on to these little play acts (you know “Its more likely that I will play full forward for…..” etc etc).

    Her deception and the ALP leaks are the story, not whether or not she spoke to Carr which is perfectly reasonable.

  58. Diogenes

    gus

    They’d have pretty good security on the PMs phones. Surely the AFP is all over that kind of thing.

  59. The Finnigans

    [I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.]

    Diog/Gussie, no one and nothing is safe. Everything is hackarable. The best policy is to STFU

  60. gusface

    finns

    solly

    u cant hack the 6.5 stars generals network

  61. Jackol

    Danny Lewis –

    I think what happened is:

    Yup, that accords with what I know of the situation.

    I’m just getting twitchy about any statements that look like they’re allowing the falsehoods to go unchallenged. Apologies if I’ve been a bit harsh.

    I’m so sick of the fabrication going on. It has to stop – discussion and reportage has to be based on reality, in context. Free floating distortions unanchored in reality are being used to make false cases on a daily basis.

    How can we have a real national discussion about politics or policy in this environment?

  62. Fulvio Sammut

    Didn’t the Federal Libs second a failed NSW Opposition leader called Fahey as Finance Minister?

    Didn’t hear crap like this going on about that from the MSM or Labor at the time.

  63. gusface

    btw

    sam d the sec of nsw labor

    (the peeps who will actually nominate the senator, not JG)

    spoke to bob C

    at no stage was FA mentioned

    from there the hounds started running

    as i said earlier

    carr wants to be Ambassador to the USA

  64. Diogenes

    Mod Lib

    Fair enough.

    One thing I think that is hugely important is whether people give you the benefit of the doubt. I’m sure you know people who could breeze through vivas because they say the right phrases and look like they know their stuff.

    Gillard doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Ever.

    Whether that is her fault or the media is debatable. I think it’s a mixture.

  65. The Finnigans

    [u cant hack the 6.5 stars generals network]

    Gussie, dont need to. All your 6.5Gs are already under the payroll of Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc, Solly Compadre.

    That’s why i said appoint Colonels.

  66. Jackol

    Her deception

    You never backed up that there was any deception.

    The story that was “completely untrue” would only be true (and Julia Gillard “lying”) if there actually was a mutiny/rebellion.

    What evidence do you have that there was a mutiny/rebellion?

  67. The Finnigans

    [Gillard doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Ever.]

    Diog, keep trying. you are doing well.

  68. Mod Lib

    [Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
    Didn’t the Federal Libs second a failed NSW Opposition leader called Fahey as Finance Minister?

    Didn’t hear crap like this going on about that from the MSM or Labor at the time.]

    The story is not former pollies going to Canberra (MP Fremantle anyone?).

    The story is ALP leaking just days after the “All is healed in the ALP” meme…
    The story is Gillard trying to brush the story off as “completely untrue” and then admitting the next day that she had indeed talked to Carr during her reshuffle deliberations and Carr (according to reports) confirming he was offered FM

  69. sprocket_

    [Yes! Thank goodness we have a fearless and independent public broadcaster that will report the facts in an unbiased and objective manner … oh, wait …]

    the ABC needs constant reminding that a higher standard is expected of them. It is too easy to descend to the same “unsourced” comments, or worse, repeating other publications unattributed comments. Lazy, and just not good enough.

  70. Nostradamus

    It’s nice to see you all again!
    I for one was very happy at all the events of last week, now Tony Abbott has a much better chance of winning the next election after Dullard got rid of Krudd once and for all. And now Dullard couldn’t even hold her authority for one day as she bungled her party’s attempt to exhume Bob Carr into what passes for their Senate lineup!

    Anyway, I see things just slithering on for the time being, at least until after the May Budget. Dullard may well be toast before the end of the year but whoever replaces her will have no chance in winning next year.

  71. Fulvio Sammut

    No, Mod Lib, that isn’t the story, that’s the fabrication.

    What I said is the reality.

  72. Mod Lib

    [What evidence do you have that there was a mutiny/rebellion?]

    The leak.

    Is anyone getting this? Are you seriously all saying you cannot see that someone in the ALP has leaked this (or as Gus says, someone is hacking phone lines)

  73. Jackol

    The story is Gillard trying to brush the story off as “completely untrue” and then admitting the next day that she had indeed talked to Carr during her reshuffle

    ModLib, shown to be making stuff up, comes out with it again.

    Julia Gillard said that a story with headlines about “Mutiny Kills PM’s Bob Carr Plan” and “Rebellion by Ministers Undermines Gillard’s Newfound Authority” was “completely untrue”.

    Julia Gillard has never denied talking to Bob Carr. She has not “lied” about not talking to Bob Carr.

    “Admitting” to talking to Bob Carr doesn’t show anything.

    The only possible lie would be if there was a mutiny/rebellion – and no one has provided any evidence that there was a “mutiny” or “rebellion”.

    Sorry folks, don’t mean to harp on this, but I’m not going to meekly let anyone, let alone ModLib, keep putting this shit out there uncontested.

  74. Nostradamus

    And here’s another item I’d like you people to keep in mind: this has just been one of the coldest and wettest summers in eastern Australia in living memory. So much for climate change, Nopenhagen and Kyoto. I don’t want my hard-earned wages taken away to subsidize a new tax while ruining my children’s job prospects at the same time. Repeal the carbon tax schnell!

  75. gusface

    mod

    u sure like to verbal

    u aint a copper by any chance?

  76. Greensborough Growler

    Come the morrow, the story will be the new Cabinet.

  77. Mod Lib

    So how did the media get the story Jackol?

  78. BH

    I’ll take this Morgan even tho we all know what Morgan is. It’s a pity that the Greens went down 3.5 of which 1 pt went to the Libs but only .5 to Labor. Still after all the ruckus last week I expected even Morgan to be worse.

    Cuppa – Smithe’s post mentioned by you on the last thread @4045 is really good (thanks Smithe). It should be tweeted to JBishop who was positively abhorent at a doorstop today when she called the PM a pathological liar. If I was JG I’d be suing her.

  79. Danny Lewis

    I think Gillard’s problem is that, despite her natural shyness, she actually has very high self-esteem, which is why the gibes don’t affect her the same way they do others.

    People who actually DO have glass jaws: Abbott and most of his front bench and especially certain players in the media, just don’t get this.

    Why do you think they are getting angry and frustrated that their constant niggling has not resulted in the PM cracking up, bursting into tears, having a hissy fit or whatever?

    PROJECTION. They make assumptions about the way THEY would reacy under the same circumstances and decide that means there is something wrong with HER. They should, instead, be looking in the mirror and seeing what is wrong with THEM.

  80. Jackol

    The leak.

    Oh, the leak from random person. All we have is that someone said there was disagreement and debate over getting Bob Carr into the FA portfolio.

    What a Manichean universe we live in – either Julia Gillard can just throw her power around without a peep from anyone she works with – or else someone raises concerns and then we’re thrown into “mutiny” and “rebellion”.

    You want to say that was a “mutiny”? You want to say that that is proof that Julia Gillard was deprived of exercising her authority by the factions?

    It’s nothing of the sort. It’s complete crap.

  81. the spectator

    [Is anyone getting this? Are you seriously all saying you cannot see that someone in the ALP has leaked this (or as Gus says, someone is hacking phone lines)]

    Hacking of phones cannot be ruled out and is highly likely given Newscorp is involved. They are guilty until proven otherwise afterall that is the same standard they apply to everyone else.

  82. Diogenes

    Does FA have a 2IC? Lots of the other depts have a parl sec or junior minister etc .

    I can’t recall FA having one. The FA minister is obviously away a lot so who runs the joint when he isn’t there.

    Is it the Trade Minister?

    I’m just thinking Carr could have been a parl sec in FA. That would have been a good outcome IMHO.

  83. confessions

    [Is anyone getting this? Are you seriously all saying you cannot see that someone in the ALP has leaked this (or as Gus says, someone is hacking phone lines)]

    As I’ve said repeatedly today, if there is a leak then it is more likely to be a stray Ruddista who didn’t get the memo that MV Rudd has sailed.

    Now, onto more substantive matters….

  84. shellbell

    John Fahey came in with Howard in 1996, went straight to the front bench and retired though ill health because he smoked like whatever the collective word is for chimneys

  85. Greensborough Growler

    Looks like Michael Fullilove gets the Senate spot according to the ever reliable VexNews:

    Very appropriate name for the battle ahead.

    “Senior sources say Michael Fullilove endorsed by NSW Right & will be selected to fill the Senate vacancy tomorrow at ALP Nat Exec”

  86. shellbell

    Diogenes

    64 is a bit on the mature side for taking a middling position especially if you have been a big fish for 10 years

  87. Greensborough Growler

    Diogs,

    Richard Marles was Parly Sec to Rudd and looked after the Pacific Region.

  88. Jackol

    So how did the media get the story Jackol?

    Shifting the ground again ModLib. I haven’t been debating whether there was a leak. I have been disputing your assertion that Julia Gillard obviously lied or was deceptive.

    The leak is of (very) minor interest. There are many possible explanations, many of them involving casual discussion between various people and members of the press or other intermediaries that really don’t aspire to the level of “leak”. None of it is very important. Sure, I’d prefer there weren’t “leaks”, but this kind of “leak” is not a big deal one way or the other.

    You can assert that the “leak” implies a devastating loss of authority for Julia Gillard; I’ll accept that as your opinion.

    What I won’t accept is this crap that Julia Gillard lied or deceived people about this situation.

  89. gusface

    GG

    interesting choice

    more leigh and dreyfus, than combet and shorten

  90. Greensborough Growler

    Mod Lib,

    The fact that there were leaks is not Gillard’s fault.

    See how things pan out tomorrow.

  91. Danny Lewis

    Oops, missed out the main thrust of my argument, which was that it would actually have been better if she HAD as fragile a glass jaw as the others, because she would have been out in the media on a daily basis defending herself, rather than just letting it pass like water off a duck’s back.

    I’ve gotta say though, I am rather disappointed that her colleagues have not been supporting her in this way. The very second someone tried on the “PM is a liar” meme it should have been slapped right down, pointing to her reputation – going back years – as straight shooter and a decent and honest person in her dealings with people.

    Because neither the PM nor her colleagues ever contested this contention, it has been allowed to gather momentum to the point where it is now taken as a given that she is a liar, when nothing is further from the truth.

  92. Diogenes

    shellbell

    He hasn’t done anything in politics for 9 years or so.

    It’s a bit much to go straight into a highly sensitive portfolio like FA straight off the bat.

  93. Greensborough Growler

    gus,

    i wonder if Gillard needs to deny whether he’s been offerrred the FA job.

    It might be handy if she sees the neccesity to answer criticisms from those who would never vote for her and the fragile egos of the Oz.

  94. gusface

    shel

    he lost a ung from memory

    a rather flaccid polly

  95. gusface

    GG

    I tapped her call to michael

    just waiting for the bidding war to begin

    👿

  96. Nostradamus

    I saw Dullard on ABC regarding the leak during question time. She looked very nervous indeed, her face had hiding something written all over it. Not a good luck representing this great nation.

  97. shellbell

    Dio

    Sure but not that many pollies sticking around parliament much beyond 70 nowadays.

  98. gusface

    justice4daniel ‏ @justice4daniel
    Corrupt cops, the News of the World and a notorious unsolved murder PRESS GAZETTE #leveson http://tinyurl.com/89sa4bs

  99. gusface

    shel

    except the fibs and nats

    avg age 56 i think

  100. Boerwar

    Dio
    Richard Marles is parl sec for pacific island affairs.

  101. The Finnigans

    Be afraid, very afraid Huawei from China will join Samsung & HTC & ASUS as the next big thing in Smartphones & Tablets

  102. Boerwar

    The private second class network is networking like nobody’s business.

    At the pub.

    The six point fives won’t know what hit them.

  103. Mod Lib

    [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    The fact that there were leaks is not Gillard’s fault.

    See how things pan out tomorrow.]

    I am not saying Gillard leaked….Haha! 😉

    Just someone unhappy with her. The point is the media are reporting unhappiness in the ALP and low and behold a little insider information appears.

    I suspect you (and others here) actually do get this, but I commend your pretences!

  104. gusface

    b

    but finns asked me to make u a colonel

    🙁

  105. ShowsOn

    The 2pp would be higher if Carr was in Foreign Affairs.

  106. ShowsOn

    Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt?

  107. The Finnigans

    In his new Soccer League. Clive PALMER will be the Chairman, funder as well as playing the goal keeper. Nothing can get pass him

  108. The Finnigans

    [but finns asked me to make u a colonel]

    Gussie, BW is already Da Kolonel

  109. Greensborough Growler

    Mod Lib,

    Oh, I understand the point.

    However, the Carr furore is a bucket of bullshit that will be forgotten. In fact I’ve already forgotten.

    If you want to talk meaningless rubbish, how about the rumour that Abbott is no longer wearing his wedding ring?

    The Morgan poll we are threading on shows again, that the Libs have got no bounce from the furore of last week. What does this mean?

  110. The Finnigans

    [ce cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt? Ice cream or yoghurt?]

    Showy, repetitions wont improve your IQ

  111. HaveAchat

    Day after day, it is the same few fuarqwits that come here spoiling for a fight, they come and the first thing they do is spout some derogatory statement about the PM. Then sit back and see how and who will take the bait and then continue their ‘intelligent’ analysis of some simple statement as to whether it proves that the PM is a congenital liar, loose with her words or deliberately obtuse all in the hope of reeling is a few people and deflecting any real analysis of the politics of the day or week.
    Is it any wonder that this site is down to about 20 people posting and fewer sitting back reading (well scrolling past most of the crap that goes on here) where there used to be many more.

  112. gusface

    Katharine Nicholson ‏ @The_CheshireKat
    RT @mikestuchbery: The author of this headline deserves the sack. You don’t address the PM like that. http://twitpic.com/8qj32a < !!! Appalling.

    what sexist headline

    what has the MSM come to

    🙁

  113. ShowsOn

    [Showy, repetitions wont improve your IQ]
    I thought IQ doesn’t change from adolescents onwards?

    Well, unless someone suffers dementia, then it declines rapidly.

  114. BH

    [repetitions wont improve your IQ]

    Finns – Definitely not if he takes that long to decide 🙂

  115. shellbell

    Does anyone know why Barry Cohen keeps attending the HoR as an observer?

    I can think of better ways to spend my twilight years.

  116. The Finnigans

    [Is it any wonder that this site is down to about 20 people posting]

    HaveAchat – Bilbo cant handle more than 20, else the steam driven server will crash every 10mins.

  117. BK

    SPECIAL BULLETIN FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIAN POLL BLUDGERS

    On Saturday 17 March it is intended to have a luncheon gathering for the SA Chapter at the Rising Sun, the venue of the original Chapter meeting.
    For those whose email address I don’t have please authorise William to forward theirs to to me for consolidation into the distribution list.

  118. Greensborough Growler

    BK,

    A St. Patricks day massacre of wine and food?

  119. zoomster

    Is this the ultimate ‘boy’s look’?

    My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!!

    Found.

  120. Mod Lib

    [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    Oh, I understand the point.]

    Yes, I knew you would. Do me a favour and tell the other posters, would you?

    [The Morgan poll we are threading on shows again, that the Libs have got no bounce from the furore of last week. What does this mean?]

    Yes, you are absolutely right. I have been very surprised by the polls around the destabilisation. The Morgan is a F2F and taken last weekend which is at the time we have debated here about the possibility of an impending Rudd takeover bounce.

    If over the next few weeks we have polls in the 48-52 range I will agree with you: GAME ON!

    If, as I suspect, over the next few weeks we have polls drifting out again to 44-56 (or worse for the ALP) then…..well, I guess: GAME ON TOO!!!!

  121. gusface

    zoom

    [My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!!]

    u is in the ISS?

  122. poroti

    The Finnigans
    [In his new Soccer League. Clive PALMER will be the Chairman, funder as well as playing the goal keeper. Nothing can get pass him]
    Not to mention he really will be in “A League of his own” !!

  123. BK

    [A St. Patricks day massacre of wine and food?]
    GG
    Absolutement!

  124. poroti

    [zoom

    My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!! ]
    Youse Malcolm Fraser’s dad ? 😆

  125. The Finnigans

    [My son just tweeted me from Sydney (600k plus away) that he couldn’t find his good trousers. So I told him where to look for them!!]

    Zoom, if i were you. i asked first how did he lost it. Memphis?

  126. zoomster

    gus

    wot’s the ISS?

  127. ShowsOn

    [Does anyone know why Barry Cohen keeps attending the HoR as an observer?]
    He is delusional and thus still thinks he is an MP?

  128. The Finnigans

    [SPECIAL BULLETIN FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIAN POLL BLUDGERS]

    BK, can you imagine if we have the Sydney Chapter and crashed by Evan2GB, yuk!!!

  129. gusface

    International Space Station

  130. BK

    Finns
    At Candelori’s?

  131. Rossmore

    Thomas Jefferson “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” Discuss, in the context of coverage of current Australian political events by the print media.

  132. ShowsOn

    [wot’s the ISS?]
    International Space Station.

  133. gusface

    finns

    i still reckon we gatecrash bushfires next soiree

  134. zoomster

    gus

    aha!

    No, I am a Mexican.

    (poroti, although I have a son, I’m noone’s dad)

  135. gusface

    bk

    that is pure evil

    not candeloris

    the suggestion

  136. ShowsOn

    Am I the only one that likes watching the Prime Minister walk?

  137. confessions

    [On Saturday 17 March it is intended to have a luncheon gathering for the SA Chapter at the Rising Sun, the venue of the original Chapter meeting.]

    St Pat’s Day! Hope youse all have fun.

  138. Greensborough Growler

    Mod Lib,

    The bad news for you and the Libs is that was just down the local and the punters are all of a sudden interested in the compensation for the Carbon tax.

    It’s amazing how quickly people will change their view of the Government, climate change and being proactive on social issues when you explain they are financial winners from all their altruism.

    The No charade has run its course.

  139. confessions

    [Thomas Jefferson “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.”]

    Esp Australian newspapers, as we continue to see evidence of here every day.

  140. gusface

    zoom

    I read 600k

    as 600,000

    😉

  141. zoomster

    gus

    my bad.

    Now, finding his trousers from 600,000 km away really would be the ultimate mother trick.

  142. Nostradamus

    The 2pp would be higher if Carr was in the Senate.
    And yet, they blew it.
    And yes, regarding the first line, that still wouldn’t be saying much.

    Only 18-20 months until an Abbott Government – for the next 15 years! I can’t wait!

  143. Greensborough Growler

    fess,

    It’s a well known PB fact that the more Diog reads, the less he knows.

  144. gusface

    zoom

    I reckon u could do it

    🙂

  145. BH

    [Is this the ultimate ‘boy’s look’?]

    Zoomster – that is classic. File it under ‘to be brought out when said son thinks I’m a dill’

  146. Jackol

    Thomas Jefferson “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.”

    Thomas Jefferson wrote many scathing things about the press, a lot of it much more visceral than that.

    To your request of my opinion of the manner in which a newspaper should be conducted so as to be most useful, I should answer, “by restraining it to true facts and sound principles only.” Yet I fear such a paper would find few subscribers. It is a melancholy truth that a suppression of the press could not more completely deprive the nation of its benefits than is done by its abandoned prostitution to falsehood. Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day… I will add that the man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them, inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. He who reads nothing will still learn the great facts, and the details are all false.

    I deplore, with you, the putrid state into which our newspapers have passed, and the malignity, the vulgarity, and mendacious spirit of those who write for them; and I enclose you a recent sample, the production of a New England judge, as a proof of the abyss of degradation into which we are fallen. These ordures are rapidly depraving the public taste, and lessening its relish for sound food. As vehicles of information, and a curb on our functionaries, they have rendered themselves useless, by forfeiting all title to belief. That this has, in a great degree, been produced by the violence and malignity of party spirit, I agree with you; and I have read with great pleasure the paper you enclosed me on that subject, which now return.

    He was a bitter bitter man.