Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2750 Responses

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  1. DavidWH

    I expect PB’ers or the majority will have cause to be happier in the months ahead unless Abbott can make that transition.

    It may be a tough period for me

    Chin up,stiff upper lip and all that old chap. Try wearing a “Don’t Blame Me I Voted For Turnbull ” t-shirt as it may help somewhat :lol:

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:40 pm

  2. jenauthor

    Yes I do recall the wise owl comment. Welldone!!

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:40 pm

  3. Whatever the truth about Smith’s desire to go back to FA or his disappointment in not getting the gig, I think it’s clearly in the national interest that he stays where he is. He seems to be the first Defence Minister in a long time to be making some progress against the entrenched problems and vested interests in defence. It would be a bad mistake to move him out now while the job is only half done. It’s a job that needs both competent administration and great purpose and strength of character, both of which he seems to posses.

    by ajm on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:40 pm

  4. Whatever the truth about Smith’s desire to go back to FA or his disappointment in not getting the gig, I think it’s clearly in the national interest that he stays where he is.

    I definitely agree with this. Sorry Stephen, we need you to continue the job of getting the ADF sorted out.

    by Jackol on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  5. bemused

    How is appointment of ministers a ‘win’?

    Since you don’t accede to the fact that the PM has been under fire all week (including from so-called faithful ALP members, yourself ABOUT the appointment of a minister), how could you not agree that it has been a win for Julia Gillard?

    How could you not! BUT YOU DO.

    Of course, you can’t even acknowledge Carr’s appointment – because you DERIDE every damn thing the PM does.

    Nothing, NOTHING, she does do you agree with.

    And you sit there and pretend you’re all about rules and regulations.
    But you betray yourself time and again.

    It’s people like you who make me question my allegiance to the Labor party.
    I would never want you on my team; you are not a team player.
    You would prefer to cut of your nose to spite your face than accept you’re wrong.

    Actually, I feel sorry for you.

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  6. The ABC is at it:

    “She denied it all week …”

    “Rolled McClelland because he supported Rudd …”

    “Stephen Smith lost out …”

    I can’t stop laughing.

    by This little black duck on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  7. The AEC has re-distributed me out of a Federal Electorate where I was represented by a female member into one where I have a male MP.

    Not my fault!

    As usual you have completely missed the point.

    Next!

    by Tom Hawkins on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  8. Accusing somebody of lying once is a bomb going off, accusing them of lying 1000 times just gets boring, Tabbott is just boring now, pathetic and boring.

    If you were a pollie 18 months out from an election would you rather be hated or considered boring and pathetic?

    by geezlouise on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  9. Abbott quoting the scriptures on a regular basis is a sure sign that onle “God” can help him now.

    If I recall, the last time Abbott played the religious card, Albo tore him a new one in Parliament.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:44 pm

  10. geezlouise

    Yes, Abbott is now totally predictable – he is either going to say ‘no’, call the PM a liar, or call for a new election.

    by zoomster on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:45 pm

  11. We’re very parochial in SA. The only time we noticed a state premier from anywhere else was when Kennett stole the Grand Prix from us.

    What about when Kennet called SA the rustbucket?
    As an aside the Grand Prix was no steal.

    by Dr John on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:45 pm

  12. tom hawkins

    thanks for offer. bex is bit out of date?
    but never felt better myself – bout politics that is. two weeks of clarity – rare
    think i’ll keep a stress measure on this site – of others not mine.

    william

    carr left nsw because he saw the wreck of the train he built coming.
    let’s be clear on record.
    his wheels cant spin forever
    and what, we owe him something still? after entitlements, commercial work? come on.

    by geoffrey on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:46 pm

  13. OC @ 965

    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink
    Bemused see my #828
    Nominations for the pre-selection are now open and close 5pm Monday with an immediate election in the administrative committee if required.
    Pre-selection processes are now followed and any party member can stand. Good luck if you do

    Your point is well made, but by coming out and endorsing Bob Carr and making him FM like she has, the PM has made it impossible for due process to be followed.

    But this is nothing new. It has been an increasing trend for many years

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:47 pm

  14. We shall know that Abbott is reaching crisis point when he starts referring to himself as “Tony Abbott”. According to a book I read yesterday, referring to oneself in the third person is a sure sign of socio-pathology.

    by lizzie on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:48 pm

  15. but never felt better myself – bout politics that is. two weeks of clarity – rare
    think i’ll keep a stress measure on this site – of others not mine.

    Sorry geoffrey

    I am a fan of Kerouac, Ginsburg and Burroughs but you particular Beat Poet phrasing is completely unintelligible to me.

    by Tom Hawkins on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:48 pm

  16. I reckon Gillard should ask Bob Carr to be minister for Foreign Affairs.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:49 pm

  17. Poroti I don’t think the t-shirt will help me here if the polls get to 50/50

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:49 pm

  18. ShowsOn

    I reckon Gillard should ask Bob Carr to be minister for Foreign Affairs.

    Great idea I will second that! Love your style!

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:51 pm

  19. Crikey is still hosted by voxtel, I reckon 12-24 hrs till DNS sorts themselves.

    by ruawake on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:51 pm

  20. illegitimate

    …. 2. forbidden by law; illegal; unlawful
    3. (Philosophy / Logic) contrary to logic; incorrectly reasoned
    n

    a strong call yes. what law or custom am i appealing to? twice the alp has tried to legitimate JG – nothing’s changed there. Have they the ability as a party to ok something that runs against the grain of public perception of fairness. fairness is general enough and legal principle, in terms of it will still use the term about JG

    by geoffrey on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:51 pm

  21. bemused

    But this is nothing new. It has been an increasing trend for many years

    No, it is the way both the ALP and the Liberals have filled these vacancies.

    Apparently you have been a party member a long time without this fact troubling you.

    It’s only now, when the party processes have resulted in a PM you don’t want, that you’ve decided there’s something wrong.

    (And if you were aware of it previously, please outline how you have used your position in the party to try and change the process).

    by zoomster on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:51 pm

  22. I reckon various people in this forum have eaten a heap of humble pie regarding the Carr appointment.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  23. It wasn’t the factions controlling Julia Gillard, it was ShowsOn!

    by Jackol on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  24. I reckon various people in this forum have eaten a heap of humble pie regarding the Carr appointment.

    Name names damn you!?

    by Tom Hawkins on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  25. geoffrey @1019

    The legitimate leader of the Federal ALP is the one who commands the most votes in caucus.

    Julia Gillard has managed this twice now. Rudd only managed it once.

    Therefore JG is more legitimate a leader than Rudd was.

    by zoomster on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  26. rua,

    I reckon 12-24 hrs till DNS sorts themselves.

    Will Julia still be PM or will Bob take over? BOO!

    by This little black duck on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  27. ShowsOn I’m still not sure if it was a fantastic strategically planned move or trip where the PM managed to land on her feet. We will probably never know.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  28. DavidWH

    Poroti I don’t think the t-shirt will help me here if the polls get to 50/50

    I reckon you will find Abbott support will be quite strong in the PB lounge if the poll gets to 50/50 this year. Heaven forbid him being replaced by an electable candidate before 2013 :)

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  29. zoomster @ 967

    zoomster
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink
    bemused

    there is a difference between ‘calling it as you see it’ and saying that loyalty to the party means supporting the leader and then not doing it.

    No one is asking you to spout propaganda. No one is asking you to accept the decisions of the party without question.

    In fact, no one is asking you to post anything at all – and that is sometimes the best option.

    The only thing I have asked you to do is to back up your assertion that the party is filling this Senate vacancy in a way different to the way they’ve filled similar vacancies in the past.

    I assume you can’t do this – in which case, you’re being disloyal simply for the sake of it.

    You also should recognise that it’s more than a little hypocritical to criticise others – such as mysay – for qualifying their support for the party whilst doing the same yourself.

    By all means feel free to criticise the party. But do so on the basis of fact, not fiction, don’t pretend that you’re supporting the party and its leader, and don’t accuse others of doing things you’re doing yourself.

    I have always had the greatest of admiration for your dedication, loyalty and hard work for the ALP and still do.

    However, I must respectfully disagree with your interpretation of loyalty which is really a formula for shutting down all debate and criticism.

    I support Julia Gillard as the elected leader of the Parliamentary Labor Party and Prime Minister.

    I will campaign for and vote for ALP candidates on all occasions.

    I also advocate internal party reform and I exercise my right to express opinions and if I disagree with some action or proposal I will say so.

    I have never said I would not work or vote for the ALP.

    I am very critical of the increasing tendency of the ALP to ignore it’s own pre-selection rules on often spurious grounds of special circumstances to take pre-selections out of the hands of the duly elected pre-selection panels.

    We now are heading toward having the ALP run by a ‘political class’ who see no need to have members any more.

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:56 pm

  30. tom hawkins

    it is truly great to know your
    reading is more up to date than a headache
    remedy. thanks for comparison
    with the greats i will try
    to phrase with precision
    cut to the quick
    run against the chase
    truth is always more
    complex that a bex

    by geoffrey on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:56 pm

  31. William @ 970

    Bemused has done nothing to deserve being called a “misogynist”. Please desist from this nonsense.

    Thank you William.

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  32. Dont laugh. it’s serious. OZ’s FM Bob Carr Vs Julie Bishop #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  33. Bemused @1012
    Not at all. If the “faceless men” (and let’s face it there are none more faceless that the NSW Administrative Committee) wished they could embarrass the PM to a level that would require resignation. Its their call.
    They won’t because the PM and Sussex St have combined to produce a result that is brilliant not only because of the appointment but because it asserts the PMs leadership in the face of media speculation.

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:59 pm

  34. Finns,

    Who serves up foreign affairs for the Oops in the Senate. I’ll allow you one joke about that.

    by This little black duck on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:59 pm

  35. Very Gracious DavidWH, and I think you are probably right.

    Meanwhile a general raspberry to the media on this week’s Carr crap! What a useless lot, getting themselves worked up about nothing and being wrong at the same time. Gratten sure had the inside juice when she submitted today’s effort.

    by Tobe on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:59 pm

  36. Anyway, I think the government will benefit a great deal by having Bob Carr around the cabinet table.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  37. Someone watch CH& & report please!

    Nine’s headline “He’s back: the secret deal ….etc”

    by jenauthor on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:01 pm

  38. I should also add, as you well know, the appointment of a minister is independent of their place in parliament. Under the constitution a ministerial appointment can be held for 3 months by a non member/senator.

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:01 pm

  39. Bob Carr for PM?

    by slackboy72 on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  40. Who serves up foreign affairs for the Oops in the Senate. I’ll allow you one joke about that.

    ducky, too deep for me.

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  41. New thread? where?

    by jenauthor on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  42. I’m told that “the back end of the website will go down tonight from around 6pm to 9pm”.

    I presume its an upgrade to stop the site shitting itself under heavy traffic.

    by castle on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  43. However, I must respectfully disagree with your interpretation of loyalty which is really a formula for shutting down all debate and criticism.

    Bullwhacky.

    I’ve worked for change within the party. That involves debate and criticism.

    I’ve been told on more occasions than I can count to sit down and shut up (including letters from party leaders), yet I’ve continued to be a vocal advocate for change.

    However, one of the basic tenets of the Labor party is to criticise and complain all you like before a decision is made, but once it is made, respect it and get on with the job.

    You’ve had your chance to influence the debate, and you’ve lost.

    That’s the basis of caucus decision making.

    If you are unable to adhere to a basic tenet of ALP decision making – one which has been in operation for as long as the party itself – then perhaps you’re to the one out of step.

    by zoomster on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  44. Very Gracious DavidWH, and I think you are probably right.

    agree

    by castle on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  45. kezza2

    i can get red necked comments at the local thanks.
    how quickly gentle folk here go for jugular – might be medium, cant be the calibre of individuals
    i am seaching for answer – what principle was violated and will still be seen as being violated in june 2010. something bigger than a party procedure (which itself was entirely fallible). both party votes were dodgy anyway. its a good question even if i confess to being a little out of depth. the question might not return in public – or it will. i think it will

    by geoffrey on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:04 pm

  46. kevjohnno @ 981

    kevjohnno
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
    A clear demonstration as to how the PM has abrogated proper ALP pre-selection processes. It is as Rodney Cavalier says, the party is now run by a ‘political class’ who basically ignore the members.

    It’s a bit rich to use “now run” isn’t it? This is the way all the parties have done it since Federation, except of course the Democrats and look where they ended up. Pragmatic filling of casual vacancies always pisses off a few grassroots members and “loyalists” waiting for their turn at the trough but also gives the parties a chance to shoehorn in talented people.

    You raise very valid points and there is a tension between locals in an electorate choosing their candidate as opposed to having a talented outsider selected.

    The ALP in Victoria has tried to get a balance in this by having a local component of pre-selection panels and a ‘central’ component elected by State Conference to look after broader interests.

    Like most things it is imperfect in operation, but the idea is basically right IMHO.

    For Senate positions it is all done by those elected by State Conference.

    But what has tended to happen is these mechanisms get over-ridden.

    Now Bob Carr may turn out to be a great Senator and Foreign Minister, but what message does it send to the membership if normal processes are so frequently ignored? What value is there in being a member?

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  47. shows

    bob only wanted to be ambassador

    ur lobbying pushed him over the line

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:06 pm

  48. And here is a little letter from the PM:

    Dear

    I made an offer to Bob Carr yesterday to serve as my Foreign Minister because I thought he should be a member of the strongest possible team to deliver the Government’s agenda.

    I was delighted when he accepted my offer.

    I think it is a fantastic thing to be able to announce today that Bob Carr will be Australia’s new Minister for Foreign Affairs.

    This is an exciting time for him to join our government, as we have remarkable opportunities in front of us as a nation.

    We’re in the right region in the world at a time of incredible economic growth – a time when nations in other parts of the world are showing the strain.

    We have a tremendous opportunity to show that you can grow richer whilst you grow fairer. That’s our vision for the future.

    Bob Carr will play a strong part in delivering Labor’s message in the coming months.

    Yours sincerely

    Julia Gillard
    Prime Minister

    PS: You can now view the new Federal Cabinet by clicking here.

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:06 pm

  49. I’m told that “the back end of the website will go down tonight from around 6pm to 9pm”.

    quick, where are the coals?

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:06 pm

  50. shows

    bob only wanted to be ambassador

    ur lobbying pushed him over the line

    No Gussy, I declined the job! Carr was 2nd choice, and Smith was third.

    I thanked the P.M., but said that as a Rudd supporter it would be wrong for me to accept it.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 6:08 pm

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