Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).
NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Bob Carr can give Gillard & her team some good advice about how to handle the media and better disseminate the government’s positive messages. As NSW Opposition Leader and then Premier, Carr was a master at media spin.
I’m usually a harsh critic of Julia, but I give her top marks for the appointment of Carr to the FA job.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:02 pm
I don’t know why anyone from the ALP would want to appear on the ABC at the moment – they’ve been a disgrace lately. The government could probably run the whole shebang via press conferences and do just as well.
by Aguirre on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Gus, we should never expect old Thomas the Paine to move beyond liberal talking points. He is just stuck in one or two repetitive grooves.
by joe2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm
You? Really? Surely not.
by Gary on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Ian,
I suspect that the Libs – and a few journalists – are now respecting the authority of cold, sharp steel.
As you correctly say, sort of: Stick it up ‘em, and twist.
BTW, Ian: Enjoy your contributions. Thanks.
by Scringler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm
That’s the interesting thing overlooked because of the Carr bombshell and which Andrew Elder mentioned at the previous reshuffle. The government ministry is being positioned to take apart those pretenders on the shadow side. Big winners in the previous one were Combet, Shorten and Plibersek.
We have already seen Gillard, Swan and Wong attempt to engage the Three Stooges in economic debate. And although they’re in separate houses, I look forward to Shorten taking on Erica, and as of now Carr with Mesma. Plibersek vs Dutton, and there’s more …
Life is going to get a lot more unpleasant for Abbott-Credlin. Gillard will do Abbott slowly – the polls should give him 6 months. Rudd, the Media, then Abbott: it’s starting to look very good.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Bruce Hawker reportedly worked in Carr’s office at some point.
Frankly I think the govt should eschew the Rudd/Hawker era of spin, spin, spin, and continue its track record of achievement, achievement, achievement.
I’m of the view that the era you yearn for is yesterday’s era, and that the times have moved on.
by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm
TP – your “assessment” is poor.
You assert Gillard didn’t win the election or wtte.
The fact that she is PM now and with any sort of fortune will be until the election just makes what you say verging on rubbish. Along with a lot of your boring stuff.
Given that Menzies hung on with a majority of 2 for a long time, and he was attacked all the time by Labor, did not diminish his legitimacy any more than that of Gillard’s now.
Seeing that you continue to write hundreds of words here nearly every day I refuse to believe you do not understand the difference between “legitimacy” in your eyes and actual power of votes on the floor of the HoR.
The second of this is the important one.
The first, in relation to actual government, is not relevant.
We live in a democracy, and part of it is you can essentially believe and say what you like within reason, but it is tosh. A clash of substantial verbiage against quality I suppose.
I don’t know why you bother.
by Tricot on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Seeking consistency with Mr Bowe’s meme, Now that Mr Sheridan has all the facts before him we can rest assured that he will laud to the skies Ms Gillard’s brilliance in ensuring that Mr Carr is our FA Minister.
N’est-ce pas?
by Boerwar on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Oakes is frist out of the blocks
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/gillard-finds-a-spine-turns-defeat-into-a-breathtaking-win/story-fn56baaq-1226287767862
by sprocket_ on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Gary: I’m being conciliatory, Gillard pulled off a spectacular coup.
Of course I’m biased, because I’ve been an admirer of Bob Carr for years.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Confessions: Even you’d concede that Labor in recent times hasn’t done a great job promoting its achievements, and that includes Rudd as well as Julia.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Thornleigh Labour Man 1450 A gracious comment. I detect a consensus emerging on who the enemy really is.
by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:08 pm
WTF? Williams is a barrister who has argued cases before the High Court.
by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Boerwar 1458 Dream on.
by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm
The media chooses to report what it reports. It was brought home to me yesterday when my simply tweet asking why the media hadn’t reported on the O and W npc speeches was greeted with such animosity by journos.
I’ve asked you this before and you never answer: Why ‘Julia’ and not ‘Kevin’, but ‘Rudd’? This is the hallmark of a sexist arsehole trying to belittle the authority of a woman by referring to her by her first name when the conventions demand she is treated equally to that of her peers.
by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Will Abbott do a reshuffle?
His frontbench needs a cleanout, starting with him.
The Liberals will only be a viable alternative government if they go back to Turnball, and bring in some genuine talent from their backbench.
Let’s face it, Bob Carr vs Julie Bishop is no contest.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm
In UK, the journos hacked people text/voice mail & got caught. Here journos tried to hack PM’s credibility and also got caught #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Why should she? It’s was never a part of the expectation of a male P.M. under a Liberal government. Howard was plainly flat, boring and cowardly and lasted nearly a decade.
by joe2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm
TLM
They’ll never face off in Parliament.
But that said Ms Bishop is a light weight compared to anybody.
by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm
tricot
nice slice and dice there
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm
yes, resign
by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Gary Sparrow: Bilson ought to be promoted.
If Abbott would just vanish, and they went back to Turnball, and a whole lot of moderates got senior positions, the Liberals would be in better shape.
As long as Abbott stays leader, Gillard can still win the next election.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm
shows
my bro is a barrister
he has argued cases in the supreme court and HC
so what?
(btw i think williams is a good choice- but just cos he is Barra who has been against the HC is neither here nor there)
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Rudd v Bishop ws no contest, either.
by Toorak Toff on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm
It’s grand listening to prissy Pyne. The Coalition keeping trying to get to an early election and yet it won’t happen. He seems to forget the Howard didn’t lie in 2004 re : Workchoices, he just forgot to tell the public, stuff all difference and yet were they any calls for an election then? No.
The coalition are running out of time and every week that goes by, it means they will be under further pressure to explain their policies. Love the point about imposing a tax on all business with turnover of over $5m. Absolutely brilliant.
The appointment of Bob Carr will only further see the shrill of the Opposition as it realizes the emperor (Abbott) has no clothes!
by Kirky on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Turnbull would come back and that would be the end for Gillard Labor Finnigans
by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm
finns
abbott will now move the budgie back to its perch
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Artie Sinodinos should be made Foreign Minister then they can duel in the Senate!
by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Finance or treasurer methinks
by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Finance he should…
And be leader of the Opposition in the Senate…
by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@GenGusface @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, a word of advise. Those who wait will only see the arrow of time shooting by. Dont be another Cossie.
glen
sorry talcum has got ol’ jellybacks constitution
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm
agreed
by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm
I see they haven’t learned their lessons from this week. The predictions of JG’s demise persist
by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm
What he’s a gutless wonder?
by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm
The Coalition Senate team isn’t exactly blessed with intellectual heavyweights – Eric Abetz is a good example.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
The lesson of not believing anything that Gillard says?
by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Glen, i have constantly reminded Turnbull that he is slowly turning into another “no ballsy Cossie”
FYI
by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
mod
glad u see that talcum is all gelatine, no spine
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm
I know – Cory Bernadi for Shadow Foreign Affairs.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Glen
did I hear someone mention Gordon Grech?
by sprocket_ on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Gussie, great mind thinks alike
by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Hmmmm. Just arrived back from some family stuff.
Is Sheridan a relative, William?
Otherwise I cannot think of a single, make that SINGLE, reason to defend his horseshit.
by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Given this is my be-nice-to-Gus month, I will let that slide….
by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm
I wonder whose idea it was? Carr is a foil to Rudd, but will ultimately do harm to Gillard’s personal credibility. Gillard will be quite happy with Carr’s apparent interest in the US since she seems to be in fawning awe of Obama. I also note Rudd and Gillard’s difference on Palestine may have caused some concerns in the US and Israel.
I guess it was the faction powers that gave her the task. I doubt she would make a move like this without their specific OK. So they could keep the US and Israel more happy whilst keeping Rudd at bay.
However I note that Carr certainly has a different view on Assange than she who was ever so keen to please the US.
Wonder if this will cause some significant conflict any time soon between Carr and Gillard, or will he conveniently forget his take on Assange’s treatment?
http://bobcarrblog.wordpress.com/2012/02/02/julian-assange-and-an-australian-charter-of-rights/
by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm
ML
As for Mr Sinodinos getting Finance or Treasury, The Coalition has such talent that Mr Sinidinos is going to have to wait for a long, long time.
After all, Ms Bishop the Elder has yet to have a turn at Finance and Mr Schultz has yet to have a go at Treasury.
by Boerwar on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm
He’s the Geert Wilders of Australian politics.
by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm
finns
it would be good for talcum to lead the fibs into the jaws of defeat
but sadly, he aint got the bottle
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm
True Boerwar….Broadbent for Immigration for starters.
by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Phil Coorey is solly – Gillard ends the week as she began it – her leadership ascendant – http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-ends-her-week-as-she-began–with-a-win-20120302-1u7f3.html#ixzz1nxi5YcK1
by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm