Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Bob Carr can give Gillard & her team some good advice about how to handle the media and better disseminate the government’s positive messages. As NSW Opposition Leader and then Premier, Carr was a master at media spin.
    I’m usually a harsh critic of Julia, but I give her top marks for the appointment of Carr to the FA job.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:02 pm

  2. re 1436: Emma was wondering why no Gov’t representitive would appear for comment

    I don’t know why anyone from the ALP would want to appear on the ABC at the moment – they’ve been a disgrace lately. The government could probably run the whole shebang via press conferences and do just as well.

    by Aguirre on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:02 pm

  3. Gus, we should never expect old Thomas the Paine to move beyond liberal talking points. He is just stuck in one or two repetitive grooves.

    by joe2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm

  4. I’m usually a harsh critic of Julia,

    You? Really? Surely not.

    by Gary on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:03 pm

  5. ” bore it up them….they don’t like it up 'em”

    Ian,

    I suspect that the Libs – and a few journalists – are now respecting the authority of cold, sharp steel.

    As you correctly say, sort of: Stick it up ‘em, and twist.

    BTW, Ian: Enjoy your contributions. Thanks.

    by Scringler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm

  6. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 8:57 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord,

    “Former NSW Premier Bob Carr will bring “the NSW disease” to Canberra, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says”.

    Oh dear! Where do the Lib front bench come from?

    Abbott, Hockey, Turnbull, Morrison are all diseased with foot in mouth and should be put down immediately.

    That’s the interesting thing overlooked because of the Carr bombshell and which Andrew Elder mentioned at the previous reshuffle. The government ministry is being positioned to take apart those pretenders on the shadow side. Big winners in the previous one were Combet, Shorten and Plibersek.

    We have already seen Gillard, Swan and Wong attempt to engage the Three Stooges in economic debate. And although they’re in separate houses, I look forward to Shorten taking on Erica, and as of now Carr with Mesma. Plibersek vs Dutton, and there’s more …

    Life is going to get a lot more unpleasant for Abbott-Credlin. Gillard will do Abbott slowly – the polls should give him 6 months. Rudd, the Media, then Abbott: it’s starting to look very good.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm

  7. Carr was a master at media spin.

    Bruce Hawker reportedly worked in Carr’s office at some point.

    Frankly I think the govt should eschew the Rudd/Hawker era of spin, spin, spin, and continue its track record of achievement, achievement, achievement.

    I’m of the view that the era you yearn for is yesterday’s era, and that the times have moved on.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm

  8. TP – your “assessment” is poor.

    You assert Gillard didn’t win the election or wtte.

    The fact that she is PM now and with any sort of fortune will be until the election just makes what you say verging on rubbish. Along with a lot of your boring stuff.

    Given that Menzies hung on with a majority of 2 for a long time, and he was attacked all the time by Labor, did not diminish his legitimacy any more than that of Gillard’s now.

    Seeing that you continue to write hundreds of words here nearly every day I refuse to believe you do not understand the difference between “legitimacy” in your eyes and actual power of votes on the floor of the HoR.

    The second of this is the important one.

    The first, in relation to actual government, is not relevant.

    We live in a democracy, and part of it is you can essentially believe and say what you like within reason, but it is tosh. A clash of substantial verbiage against quality I suppose.

    I don’t know why you bother.

    by Tricot on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm

  9. Seeking consistency with Mr Bowe’s meme, Now that Mr Sheridan has all the facts before him we can rest assured that he will laud to the skies Ms Gillard’s brilliance in ensuring that Mr Carr is our FA Minister.

    N’est-ce pas?

    by Boerwar on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm

  10. Oakes is frist out of the blocks

    It was a show of strength. And not before time. If Gillard is to capitalise on her resounding defeat of Kevin Rudd in last Monday's leadership ballot, she has to show both courage and flair.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/gillard-finds-a-spine-turns-defeat-into-a-breathtaking-win/story-fn56baaq-1226287767862

    by sprocket_ on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm

  11. Gary: I’m being conciliatory, Gillard pulled off a spectacular coup.
    Of course I’m biased, because I’ve been an admirer of Bob Carr for years.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:06 pm

  12. Confessions: Even you’d concede that Labor in recent times hasn’t done a great job promoting its achievements, and that includes Rudd as well as Julia.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:07 pm

  13. Thornleigh Labour Man 1450 A gracious comment. I detect a consensus emerging on who the enemy really is.

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:08 pm

  14. Re George Williams as High Court justice: A truly silly idea despite him being a nice person and bright. Classic green party stuff, not one for the grownups.

    An academic with no significant court experience is a very very poor plan, generally only supported by academics with no significant court experience. Cant see Nicola backing this one at all and a good thing too.

    WTF? Williams is a barrister who has argued cases before the High Court.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:10 pm

  15. Boerwar 1458 Dream on. :)

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm

  16. Even you’d concede that Labor in recent times hasn’t done a great job promoting its achievements,

    The media chooses to report what it reports. It was brought home to me yesterday when my simply tweet asking why the media hadn’t reported on the O and W npc speeches was greeted with such animosity by journos.

    and that includes Rudd as well as Julia.

    I’ve asked you this before and you never answer: Why ‘Julia’ and not ‘Kevin’, but ‘Rudd’? This is the hallmark of a sexist arsehole trying to belittle the authority of a woman by referring to her by her first name when the conventions demand she is treated equally to that of her peers.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:12 pm

  17. Will Abbott do a reshuffle?
    His frontbench needs a cleanout, starting with him. :)
    The Liberals will only be a viable alternative government if they go back to Turnball, and bring in some genuine talent from their backbench.
    Let’s face it, Bob Carr vs Julie Bishop is no contest. :D

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm

  18. In UK, the journos hacked people text/voice mail & got caught. Here journos tried to hack PM’s credibility and also got caught #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm

  19. It was a show of strength. And not before time. If Gillard is to capitalise on her resounding defeat of Kevin Rudd in last Monday's leadership ballot, she has to show both courage and flair.

    Why should she? It’s was never a part of the expectation of a male P.M. under a Liberal government. Howard was plainly flat, boring and cowardly and lasted nearly a decade.

    by joe2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm

  20. TLM

    They’ll never face off in Parliament.

    But that said Ms Bishop is a light weight compared to anybody.

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm

  21. tricot

    nice slice and dice there

    :)

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm

  22. Will Abbott do a reshuffle?

    yes, resign

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:18 pm

  23. Gary Sparrow: Bilson ought to be promoted.
    If Abbott would just vanish, and they went back to Turnball, and a whole lot of moderates got senior positions, the Liberals would be in better shape.
    As long as Abbott stays leader, Gillard can still win the next election.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  24. shows

    my bro is a barrister

    he has argued cases in the supreme court and HC

    so what?

    (btw i think williams is a good choice- but just cos he is Barra who has been against the HC is neither here nor there)

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  25. Rudd v Bishop ws no contest, either.

    by Toorak Toff on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  26. It’s grand listening to prissy Pyne. The Coalition keeping trying to get to an early election and yet it won’t happen. He seems to forget the Howard didn’t lie in 2004 re : Workchoices, he just forgot to tell the public, stuff all difference and yet were they any calls for an election then? No.

    The coalition are running out of time and every week that goes by, it means they will be under further pressure to explain their policies. Love the point about imposing a tax on all business with turnover of over $5m. Absolutely brilliant.

    The appointment of Bob Carr will only further see the shrill of the Opposition as it realizes the emperor (Abbott) has no clothes!

    by Kirky on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  27. Turnbull would come back and that would be the end for Gillard Labor Finnigans

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm

  28. finns

    abbott will now move the budgie back to its perch

    :evil:

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm

  29. Artie Sinodinos should be made Foreign Minister then they can duel in the Senate!

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm

  30. Gary Sparrow
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm | Permalink
    Artie Sinodinos should be made Foreign Minister then they can duel in the Senate!

    Finance or treasurer methinks

    by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:23 pm

  31. Finance he should…

    And be leader of the Opposition in the Senate…

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm

  32. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans
    @GenGusface @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, a word of advise. Those who wait will only see the arrow of time shooting by. Dont be another Cossie.

    glen

    sorry talcum has got ol’ jellybacks constitution

    ;)

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm

  33. agreed

    by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm

  34. I see they haven’t learned their lessons from this week. The predictions of JG’s demise persist :-)

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm

  35. What he’s a gutless wonder?

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm

  36. The Coalition Senate team isn’t exactly blessed with intellectual heavyweights – Eric Abetz is a good example.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm

  37. Super
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink
    I see they haven’t learned their lessons from this week. The predictions of JG’s demise persist

    The lesson of not believing anything that Gillard says?

    by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm

  38. Turnbull would come back and that would be the end for Gillard Labor Finnigans

    Glen, i have constantly reminded Turnbull that he is slowly turning into another “no ballsy Cossie”

    FYI

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open 2Mar
    @GenGusface @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, a word of advise. Those who wait will only see the arrow of time shooting by. Dont be another Cossie.

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm

  39. mod

    glad u see that talcum is all gelatine, no spine

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm

  40. I know – Cory Bernadi for Shadow Foreign Affairs. :D

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm

  41. Glen

    Turnbull would come back and that would be the end for Gillard Labor Finnigans

    did I hear someone mention Gordon Grech?

    by sprocket_ on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm

  42. Gussie, great mind thinks alike :wink:

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm

  43. I’m not sure why Sheridan’s comment is so embarrassing for him. He was working on the facts that were available at that time. It’s not like anyone here knew any different.

    Hmmmm. Just arrived back from some family stuff.
    Is Sheridan a relative, William?

    Otherwise I cannot think of a single, make that SINGLE, reason to defend his horseshit.

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm

  44. gusface
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink
    mod

    glad u see that talcum is all gelatine, no spine

    Given this is my be-nice-to-Gus month, I will let that slide….

    :)

    by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm

  45. I’m usually a harsh critic of Julia, but I give her top marks for the appointment of Carr to the FA job.

    I wonder whose idea it was? Carr is a foil to Rudd, but will ultimately do harm to Gillard’s personal credibility. Gillard will be quite happy with Carr’s apparent interest in the US since she seems to be in fawning awe of Obama. I also note Rudd and Gillard’s difference on Palestine may have caused some concerns in the US and Israel.

    I guess it was the faction powers that gave her the task. I doubt she would make a move like this without their specific OK. So they could keep the US and Israel more happy whilst keeping Rudd at bay.

    However I note that Carr certainly has a different view on Assange than she who was ever so keen to please the US.

    Wonder if this will cause some significant conflict any time soon between Carr and Gillard, or will he conveniently forget his take on Assange’s treatment?

    ...........

    ...................Okay.

    And how do you explain the treatment of Julian Assange under European jurisdictions, that of the UK and Sweden?

    The Swedish judge is prosecutor…yes, the two roles in the one officer, an outrage by Australian standards. The trial in Sweden was in secret, the public locked out. The charge includes rape but the sex was consensual. The victims have exchanged emails talking revenge and money.

    Hang on. None of the above happens here. Would anyone disagree that Assange would be better off in an Australian court? In a system, that is, without a charter or a bill of rights?.................

    http://bobcarrblog.wordpress.com/2012/02/02/julian-assange-and-an-australian-charter-of-rights/

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm

  46. ML

    As for Mr Sinodinos getting Finance or Treasury, The Coalition has such talent that Mr Sinidinos is going to have to wait for a long, long time.

    After all, Ms Bishop the Elder has yet to have a turn at Finance and Mr Schultz has yet to have a go at Treasury.

    by Boerwar on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm

  47. I know – Cory Bernadi

    He’s the Geert Wilders of Australian politics.

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm

  48. finns

    it would be good for talcum to lead the fibs into the jaws of defeat

    but sadly, he aint got the bottle

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm

  49. The Coalition has such talent that Mr Sinidinos is going to have to wait for a long, long time.

    True Boerwar….Broadbent for Immigration for starters.

    by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm

  50. Phil Coorey is solly – Gillard ends the week as she began it – her leadership ascendant – http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-ends-her-week-as-she-began–with-a-win-20120302-1u7f3.html#ixzz1nxi5YcK1

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm

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