Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).
NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The gang of 4 for a start: Hatcher, Coorey, Shananana and Grattan Plus our own Bilbo who also fancies himself as an #MSMhack
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:43 am
Finkelstein concludes the public has a right to better journalistic standards – http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/feeding-frenzy-of-news-20120304-1ub05.html#ixzz1oAGgqybd – Yeah, dont write crap #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:47 am
Now now Finns. Don’t be a norty dolpin.
Bilbl isn’t in that lttle cabal. He might not be a true believer as many of us here are, he might have called for more right-wing commenters on the blog out of some notion of ‘balance’ (as if such opinion didn’t get enought air-time elsewhere in the media and blogosphere), but certainly he isn’t in the same category as that trash. Nor, do I believe, does he he approve of their distortions.
He was, after all, the one who posted the Murphy quote.
by smithe on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:03 am
Smithe, Bilbo asked a question. i gave him my honest answer.
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:09 am
BTW Smithe, it says what it says as an #MSMhacks, not any other meabing.
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:11 am
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/mining-magnates-hit-back-at-swan-20120304-1ub57.html#ixzz1oBHrZgBL
by kezza2 on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:16 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/liberals-can-walk-policy-tightrope-while-labor-circus-is-in-town-20120304-1ub03.html#ixzz1oBGC2zqj
This is the kind of crap that the gang of 4 is good at. Tony Abbott’s cowardice for not re-shuffling his Cabinet, as he should, is being gloss over & presented by Coorey as some sort of clever politics & strength.
Whereas PM Gillard’s determination & decisiveness in getting her own team is being portrayed as: SNAFU
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:17 am
Wow, wow, wow. BOF is crumbling Datsun?
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cts=1330892520923&ved=0CCsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fstate-politics%2Fspinner-peter-grimshaw-shared-barry-ofarrell-emails%2Fstory-e6frgczx-1226288852859&ei=jc5TT8nyKMyfiQfph4ymAg&usg=AFQjCNF28J3s0hd1K_–KvQkSVE4ZXSN5A
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:24 am
Thanks for the link Kezza2.
This bit had me pissing myself with laughter:
[And in an opinion piece for smh.com.au, Mr Palmer says it is “the mark of an intellectual pygmy” to play the man. “To classify people by their means, race, class or gender is not a substitute for robust discussion.”
Within minutes yesterday of being anointed a Living National Treasure, Mr Palmer said the Treasurer did not know how the economy worked.
”He has to rely on faceless men in the ALP who all live in Melbourne, all send him faxes and texts, tell him what to do; and if he doesn’t know he can call his department.”
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/mining-magnates-hit-back-at-swan-20120304-1ub57.html#ixzz1oBJC3Vt2
Loved the way Clive tries to insert himself into the Anti-Discrimination Act. “Means’ and “class” don’t get a mention in my copy, but religion, race and gender do. Nice try Clive.
Maybe he’s trying to conflate his love of mammon with some sort of religious belief, so as to bring himself within the ‘religious-belief’ protections of the Act. If he is, good luck with that, as i doubt the Courts will agree.
Then there’s the “faceless men who all live in Melbourne.” Must be a Queensland thing. And here was thinking from reading the rants of the MSM over the last week or so that all the faceless faction men lived in Sussex Street, Sydney. Guess Qld doesn’t have any of it’s own faceless men pulling strings in the smowy-white political establishment they have up there, just Rich Bastards. They sure pulled plenty of strings when Joh was running the show. And they’ve all got faces.
As for how this prat got himself appointed a National treasure, Dawkins only knows. The pool of nominated candidates must have been extremely shallow indeed.
by smithe on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:38 am
Hockey tends to modify (read: back away from) that claim when pressed on it. He changes it to something about the ALP never having the budget in surplus ie paying off the debt.
Speaking of which – re the 70B black hole: back when it was just a modest 50B, I seem to recall a very large component of that was savings due to not having an NBN. There was a lot of talk about it not being applicable because NBN was infrastructure spending, not budgetary.
At any rate, that money is being spent already. They can’t unspend it, so it ought to be subtracted from the total anyway.
There are no doubt other similar non-applicable claims in that old A4 sheet. Might be time they were asked about its relevance and demands made for a new one.
by Aguirre on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:40 am
@michellegrattan you just cant bring yourself to critcise Abbott for his PM hubris on #ABCRN. As always an Abbott apologist #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:40 am
Did my ears deceive me, or did I hear Clive Palmer say that he “has no ego”?
Clearly, we should all now prepare to fall at his feet. This man has just revealed himself as an enlightened master.
by joe2 on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:42 am
If not doing things that you should do, because they are too hard, is the sign of a good politician, Abbott is one of the greats.
by Aguirre on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:47 am
It’s been crowded out by his id.
by Aguirre on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:49 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Alan Moir on the MSM.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Ron Tandberg on public political engagement.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
The incomparable David Rowe on Swan v Palmer.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:49 am
Starting your own football league because you can’t get your own way with the current one is a recognised symptom for lack of ego.
by zoomster on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:50 am
Has anyone received an email like this.
http://www.zeitgeistaustralia.org/forum/topic/economic-sabotage-in-australia
It appears to becoming viral. I have never heard of Ross Greenwood but apparently he is Alan Jones finance commentator. I doubt that any serious financial journalist -even an Australian one- would put their name to this rubbish
by Oakeshott Country on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:05 am
The Young Turks on Rush Limbaugh’s latest disgraceful performance.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101714496
by BK on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:10 am
Well spotted, Dan. I think we can take it a stage further. The repositioning of key ministers in the two recent reshuffles has been designed to exploit those weaknesses.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:14 am
Morning All
Good to see things are back up and running
Great Newspoll figures in terms of being better at stuff – question becomes how people weigh up the importance of each in their overall voting intention. Hard to think you could be in front in almost all of them but lose – or is that how it normally works???
Pretty decent spray from Clive Palmer yesterday at the awarding of the his Living Treasure award – will be fascinating to hear how he ended up winning one – as much as I don’t agree with the majority of what he says, I do think he had a right to respond to Swan’s article. Also love that he vocally supports on-shore processing of asylum seekers.
Bob Carr was on Fran this morning – he is still great at cutting through and delivering a message. Will be an excellent Foreign Minister – good job Julia.
by womble on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:14 am
Yes, zoomster, and there is his selfless support for the LNP, despite, what seems to be, their dubious regard for his magnificence.
http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/2012/03/03/396515_gold-coast-queensland-state-election.html
by joe2 on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:19 am
morning bludgers
Reminder for those interested.
Wayne Swan today at the National Press Club. 12.30 pm. Apparently he will be reading his monthly essay. Expect Clive Palmer to get a mention
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:31 am
Another ghastly piece of partisan rubbish from Terry McCran.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/carbon-tax-must-be-dumped-and-the-nbn-amended/story-e6frg9k6-1226287774921
OMG! That is so funny. So after criticising the NBN for being a fixed line monopoly he thinks it should go after the mobile market.
And it does illuminate their mindset. They not only want to deceive their readers, they are actually self deluded (about the properties of wireless).
by cud chewer on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:31 am
I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over the economic credentials one. The main problem accumulated there was the mythology that the Howard-Costello economic dominance was responsible for the boom. Partly that was down to Beazley who ran away from the Keating economic legacy, presumably on the grounds that Keating was unpopular among focus groups.
It was compounded to an extent that the turmoil of the Rudd overthrow prevented Labor claiming their due as world champions through the GFC. If the GFC was acknowledged at all, it was quickly brushed off, and apparently it was the “savings” of Howard-Costello that got us through. These arguments, even in a simplistic world won’t hold up over time.
I think The Three Stooges labelling has cut through somewhat and will continue to be used until the coalition are able to offer a credible economic view or debate. Over time I’d expect Labor support to grow there.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:32 am
OC
Ross Greenwood has been a commentator on economics for years on Channel 9 and I believe on radio and in the papers as well. He is a mouthpiece for the Liberal Party
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:34 am
Where’s the howling from the #MSMhacks about Tony Abbott’s hubris on “I’ll be the PM”. Imagine if it was from Labor side #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:38 am
joe Hockey in the smh responding to Wayne Swan.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/politics-of-division-will-kill-ambition-20120304-1ub04.html
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:39 am
@TurnbullMalcolm said over the weekend he might lead LP again. No wonder @TonyAbbottMHR declared “I’ll be PM”. The war has begun #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:40 am
Hey, its pretty obvious where Bilbo leans and it shows. But he’s not remotely in the same class as the much vaunted MSM hacks. So long as he writes good analysis on polls I’ll be happy to read them.
Where he did lose a bit of respect from me was when a pollster framed a question that simply swallowed as a matter of fact the “big lie”, bilbo defended the pollster against what amounts to a loss of rigor. Look, I’m not going into this in detail but those of us who know the story, know the “no carbon tax” comment was lifted out of context and there was little doubt about this government wanting to push pricing (again, pricing and tax are getting deliberately conflated) – it was only uncertain as to the timing.
But when a pollster comes along and just goes along with the flow and uncritically accepts this narrative it bothers me. Yeah sure you could defend the pollster in the sense of using “commonly accepted language”, but bilbo didn’t do that. So yeah, I lost a bit of respect there.
That and bilbo’s defense of the media – everything from dumbing down to outright partisanship – I’ve never seen bilbo concede that there are some serious problems there.
by cud chewer on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:41 am
Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest has apparently taken out full page ads today to put his side of the argument forward – probably not a good look for Swan to be taking these guys on. Although I guess they won’t go away if they are ignored so something needs to be done – shame it’s not possible to just leave it to the media though
Best wishes to anyone that’s copping the floods – it’s nasty in a few spots, stay safe
Have a great day All, it’s off to work I go
by womble on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:42 am
Btw had a discussion with Qantas engineer whose job has now been terminated. He officially finishes in the next few weeks. He made the observation re IR etc., that people will realise when it is too late re the lowering of pay and conditions. Business etc are determined to bring this country in line with the rest of the world. Ie crap pay and conditons.
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:43 am
@bobjcarr will bring a more “independent” & “real politik” foreign affair policies for Australia. About time too #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:43 am
The pathetic Katherine Murphy
“We in political journalism also deal daily with spin, obfuscation, obstruction, half-truth and outright lies. Last week Bob Carr issued a statement saying: ”Prime Minister Gillard had definitely not made any offer about the Foreign Affairs Ministry, nor had anyone on her behalf.” It was not happening, in other words. Then on Friday, there Carr was. Bright as a button. In Canberra. The new Foreign Minister-designate.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/feeding-frenzy-of-news-20120304-1ub05.html#ixzz1oBcBXZL9
Here we have the nub of the problem. The inability of a journalist to comprehend.
Mr Carr’ s statement was not “it was not happening” it was “it had not happened”. So Murphy’s comment is expressly negatived. by the quote. Nor is there anything in the quote to infer that t would not happen.
That inference is symptomatic of bad journalism.
Ironic that such an error appears in a holier than though self pumping piece that just shows how dire the journalistic situation is
by gough1 on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:44 am
Those who are starting to “warn” against the ALP starting to use “the politics of envy” need to grasp one essential fact. The “politics of envy” which I prefer to call the appeal to fairness, has been used throughout history because it works, just like negative campaigning does. Those who suggest the ALP shouldn’t use it are either seriously misguided or deliberately trying to undermine Labor’s capability to improve its popularity.
by ajm on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:50 am
Its symptomatic of inherent bias. You can argue all you like about the usual numbers, but its really behavior like that that exposes the subtlety of how bias works.
by cud chewer on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:50 am
Victoria – Yet ages in the Asian region are growing, According to Bloomberg in China Manufacturing wages have grown by 15% a year over ten years.
I’m not totally sure if Bloomberg meant every year or over the time period.
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:51 am
Ross Greenwood is a classic case of being in the right spot at the right time, twenty years ago he was working in a Real Estate firm in South Yarra and now he is the all knowledgeable.
I wouldn’t call him a Liberal Party mouthpiece.
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:54 am
MB
I take it he has little if any academic qualifications in finance
by Oakeshott Country on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:56 am
As far as I can tell, you don’t need a login to view this link. However if you do, it’s free and you can chose not to get their daily emails, just have a login to view their articles. Worth doing as some of them are good.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/bob-carr-julia-gillard-foreign-minister-alp-reshuf-pd20120302-RZ657#
Rob sees the forest despite the trees…
by Leroy on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:56 am
mb
My engineer friend said that even if Oz competed with wages in Asia, the conditions there are so fluid and non existent. Companies want to do business with the least amount of resistance as possible. Asian workers are compliant and bend to the will of the corporate masters.
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:56 am
I just saw a clip of Abbott making his pronouncement of his being the next elected PM. Its delivery and the moments after it were just sickening.
by BK on Mar 5, 2012 at 8:57 am
mb
I disagree. He always speaks for the Libs
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:00 am
Victoria – I refer you a recent article published about a month ago in the wall street journal that highlighted increased efforts by the ILO and local groups to put pressure on politicians
Oakeshott Country – I am not sure if Greenwood has any qualifications but as I say it seems like a case of being in the right place knowing the right people.
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:00 am
BK
Have not seen the clip, but apart from Abbott usually being sickening. Why so in this case?
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:02 am
vic
Immediately after he made it he was rocking on his heels and adopted that reptilian expression as he basked in the applause.
enough?
by BK on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:03 am
Leroy
Good piece in the spectator. I wasnt sure what the govt was up to last week, but i observed the PM in QT all week, and she did not look frazzled at all. I made the observation at the time, and wondered if the strategy was to distract everyone to look over in one direction. Turns out it was the case
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:06 am
My thoughts exactly when I heard him. That was an attempt to ensure that no challenge would be mounted as Abbott would say that such an attempt would destroy the LNP lead they enjoy. Overlooking of course that his toxic brand is costing them by dragging down their 2PP by a per cent or two.
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:06 am
From your nation’s capital:
1. The editor of The Canberra Times opines
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/editorial/cabinet-makeup-recipe-for-a-mess-20120304-1uarm.html
The shorter version: It’s too big.
2. The swearing in is about 10:30 AEDT. Maybe ABC95 will cover it.
3. Wayne Swan at the NPC
ABC coverage from 12:30.
by This little black duck on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:06 am
BK
Sickening indeed!!! What a creep
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:07 am
Tom, as soon as 2PP starts to trend down for Abbott.
The #Leadershits between Abbott & Turnbull will be on. Turnbull now realises “It’s Now or Never”. He doesnt want to be seen as Cossie Mark 2.
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 9:14 am