Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).
NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
gusface
Lord Downer of Baghdad instead ?
by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:11 am
Gary
Something in the water 392
I agree with you
by daretotread on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:11 am
What absolute crap, is this really the best the press Gallery can do. Who cares about Bob Carr. I’m absolutely fed up with their crap, and the continual slid back to labor would indicate so are a lot of other people.
It’s a pity you can’t vote the press Gallery out.
by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:11 am
Waiting for an appointment at the moment and they have some show called “the circle”
They have this clown on talking about the week in politics, total crap being talked about.
This “Tony Moclair” joker is a total moron
by Mick Collins on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:13 am
Gary
Maybe not but the reporting of another Gillard stuff-up has probably filtered through to people to reinforce existing impressions.
by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:14 am
fredn said “It’s a pity you can’t vote the press Gallery out.”
Yeah. I think Richard Farmer summed it up pretty well. “Today the PM is being criticised not for something she has done but for something she perhaps briefly thought of doing. It is a weird political world.”
It certainly is.
I think this might be the one in which the press gallery jumps the shark.
by philipb20 on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:16 am
Mike Kelly: another marginal seat MP in NSW who voted for Kevin Rudd.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:17 am
triton,
If Carr Kim stays in the Ministry, many will see the matter as having a happy ending.
Really, it is the ultimate NSW arrogance to think most Australians will remember the name of some long forgotten Premier.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:18 am
poroti
ha
or talcum
srsly tho, prissy going all high pitched and twisted testes just loses any impact
by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:18 am
Mick Collins 399
The Tories forget that many private school secondary students went to public primary schools (at least in VIC). The BER is one of the best things Labor has done recently – I see it as an assett at the next election. The logical next step I hope is a serious response to Gonski.
by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:18 am
evan,
71:31. Do you understand you lost?
SMH did a survey and 15 of 20 most marginal seat holders backed Gillard.
You are an innumerate moron.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:19 am
Actually, they WERE dismissed at the outset. But Murdoch Media & friends and the Opposition – all of whom have huge stakes in Lying their heads off in the hope the government will fall – refused to accept that. So do you, obviously! Today, they’re continung the beat-up with wtte Julia has been forced to admit she spoke to Carr about … (carefully tippy-toeing around “FM Job”)
WTF? She said, several days ago, she spoke to Mr Carr re the Senate vacancy! Mr Carr said they spoke re the Senate vacancy! Both denied the FM’s job was discussed.
What part of that do you not understand, briefly?
But that wasn’t the way NewsLtd & Co journos “saw it” (see yesterday’s Shanahan effort) or wanted to “see it”! Hence Friday’s story of PM & Carr’s WEDNESDAY’s statements, written up as a new Gottcha!
And you swallowed it, briefly!
I have a secret stash of gold bricks, and shares in the Sydney Harbour Bridge: all going cheaply, as I need the money. Can I interest you in them? Or cheap tickets to watch the ever so pretty fairy ballet at the bottom of my garden?
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:19 am
Rossmore Re# 409
Next election millions of voters will be voting in the new classrooms and libraries that this government has bulit for their children. Only a tory would complain about their children having new libraries etc. Then again, most tories consider that children that go to state schools are just riff-raff
by Mick Collins on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:23 am
Re the NBN.
Did Abbott stitch up Turnbull by giving him the job of attacking something that is going to be popular with most people?
by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:24 am
Sk still running the Carr thing for all its worth. Every 15 mins there’s a cross to the nonsense.
Only have it on for reshuffle. Hearing Richardson rave on in his anti-Gillard meme is making me feel homicidal!
by jenauthor on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:25 am
Apparently, there are heaps of boxes and lever arch files etc in the corridor outside Smith’s office.
Looks like he is on the Ministry move!
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:26 am
Hmmmm, talking about El Ratko:
by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:31 am
Funny thing that. I just had a little exchange with someone on another board who argued vehemently that the accusations should have been accepted from the outset. Or met with a series of “no comment” type responses.
It was a bit of a curly argument, dependent heavily on hindsight. Apparently, what Gillard should have done was understand that when the articles were saying that she offered the FM post to Carr and that she was facing a rebellion, what they were actually saying was that she spoke to Carr, and that whatever he was supposed to have been offered was marginal to the argument.
Are you following it so far? I wasn’t.
So when she was asked, “Did you offer the FM post to Carr?” she should have said, “Oh yes, absolutely, I spoke to him.”
See what she did was say, “No, no, I spoke to Carr but nobody offered him the ministry.” What she should have said was, “Yes, yes, I spoke to Carr but nobody offered him the ministry.”
I think that’s about the crux of it.
by Aguirre on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:32 am
Nostrawhatnot
Another dim whit comment!, where does all this rain come from, that’s right it’s the sky, how does it get there, evaporation, what causes evaporation, oh that’s right it’s HEAT, why is there so much RAIN because the sea’s are WARMER, ie: CLIMATE CHANGING!.
None so blind as those that don’t see!.
by 1934pc on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:33 am
Rudd to defence?
by trawler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:33 am
vexnews @vexnews
Liberal sources tell VEXNEWS that dodgy HSU boss Kathy Jackson had a private meeting with Liberal Eric Abetz in Canberra this week #auspol
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:33 am
Son of foro
Also, because Turnbull realises the benefits of the NBN his heart could never be in the job of “demolishing the NBN”. Half hearted in his job he would not look “effective” and so a more attractive leadership candidate.
by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:39 am
1934 the current weather pattern is directly related to a second year of La Nina a pattern that has been impacting us in similar ways for thousands of years. How much this is being exacerbated by climate change is still a matter of ongoing scientific study.
by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:41 am
Ummm, that should work well. Rudd is hated by the public service.
by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:43 am
And it won’t change a vote.
by Gary on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
Curious!
by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:45 am
Better than that, Son of Foro. Not all that many believe what he’s saying reflects his genuine opinion. Many who do, considering his former foray into ITP, see it as possibly feathering of his own nest for his post-political career.
OTOH, though he’s not at all convincing (probably deliberately so), he still manages to sound sincere enough for listeners to pick up the real message – muffling the truth rather than other Oppo Front Benchers’ outrageous lying & bumbling incompetency – so voters prefer him to Abbott. I often hear He’s a REAL Liberal.
BTW: Abbott’s ranting on my TV (muted, waiting for JG’s presser), about solar HWS, given the backdrop. ER, whose government legislated a “done & dusted” by 30 June 2012 end to the programme? Hint: Not an ALP PM!
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:46 am
I am advised that work will be performed over the weekend transferring Crikey from its existing imperial-overstretch American servers to fair dinkum new Aussie ones. Sources familiar with the matter describe these servers as “big and beefy and packed full of grunt”. There will however be a few (hopefully) final spasms of unreliability as this work is performed over the coming days. Private Media Partners thanks you for your co-operation and understanding.
by William Bowe on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:48 am
Solidly reinforces the view the press really have lost touch with reality is the way I see it. Who cares a cracker about the exact words the PM used when talking to Carr.
by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:49 am
Is he talking of himself representing the ALP in Griffith, or Bob Carr? I assume it’ll be Qld 6pm news.
by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:49 am
New there is a technical term if I ever saw one.
by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
DavidWH
That is true but it is in the Northern Hemisphere we can see something that could more readily attributable to climate change. The Arctic has had a disproportionately high temperature increase. Less sea ice coverage and warmer air means more evaporation which means larger dumps of snow on land. Which is what we have been seeing in recent years.
But it is the thawing out of the permafrost regions that is a real worry.So many gigatons of methane that could be released in a relatively short time.
by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:50 am
Thank God it’s not a poll weekend. Unfortunate experience tells me that server changeovers always end up in tears. Buckle up folks the pointy-heads will be in control.
by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:51 am
Just to add that the suggestion that had there not been a so called stuff up people would have thought better of JG is just as ridiculous.
by Gary on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:52 am
Interesting that Mr Swan has started the “debate” about vested interests at just about the same time the MRRT passes through the Senate.
Mr Palmer coming out with his statements is a big boost to the government. Wondering when others will also engage.
The statements by Mr Pyne will be pushed by the government in its attack on the coalitions support of the big miners etc.
Australians doing it tough while big business/ big miners complain with the support of the coalition ! Only labor has the interests of ordinary Australians at heart.
Writes itself, I think.
by Doyley on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:52 am
Yes, Turnbull is very good at sounding sincere.
by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:54 am
Poroti I’m not deny climate change just saying you need to be cautious in blaming CC for every normal extreme weather event.
by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:54 am
Woopy bloody do. And how in the hell is that being rude?
by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:54 am
Turnbull is always sincere
by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:55 am
It took me an hour on the phone this morning, with my PC at one end, and his PC at the other, to explain to a friend, Labor and Gillard supporter to boot, that at no stage in any article did any journalist allege that Gillard had talked with Bob Carr about the FM job.
IT was all “an offer was made”, or “the offer”, or “Labor made an offer” (who is “Labor”?), but at no stage did anyone connect Gillard to that “offer” except by grammatical construct and insinuation.
He finally agreed, and then asked what all the fuss was about.
QED, I think. Mission Accomplished.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:58 am
That’s the show on which George Negus and the co-host Yumi (or Yummy ow whatever) had a jolly jape the other day suggesting that that VC winner was a brainless idiot and dud root to boot.
Abject apologies followed, of course.
The ought to re-name it the Circle Jerk.
by smithe on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:58 am
Given the number of people that still drive into floodwater with the doors closed, the Minster is right and Jacuelne Maley is stupid.
People don’t seem to realize, if the doors are closed, cars float for a little while, and by the time they fill up with water and sink you probable won’t be on the road but in the middle of the creek with plenty of depth to sink into..
by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:01 pm
DavidWH
Didn’t think you were.
Unfortunately though too many on both sides have tried to use A single La Nino and La Nina event as proof of their argument.
by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Sky reporting McClelland dropped from ministry.
by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Latest reshuffle rumour: McClelland will retain his Emergency Management portfolio but he’ll be demoted to the outer ministry.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Poroti and it just ends up clouding the issue because people then use that to try and taint the overall issue and debate.
by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Ah, Green projection!
There’s a plethora of good & rigorously researched meteorological information on the web, inc that for c 4-5,000 years of written records cross-referenced to natural data (see below) & especially that which reflects climate and its variations prior to the survival of written records: dendrochronology, pollenology, ice core analysis, records “written” in bogs, soil and rock deposits, bone (human & animal) analysis – even to the extent that scientists can now identify where a Stone Age person lived at what part of his/her life.
BTW: Neil Oliver, archeologist and TV presenter, was discussing just such records in his series The History of Ancient Britain – and the series includes his discussion of the sudden climate change which ended the Bronze Age. He might have mentioned it on The History of Celtic Britain (though from memory, it’s on the week before’s episode still available on SBS on Demand, but is labelled “last chance” http://www.prweb01.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/2197589583/A-History-Of-Celtic-Britain-Ep3-Age-of-Invasion
It was a brilliant series, even by Neil Oliver’s standards.
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:07 pm
From A-G to backbench. Almost as big a fall as Rudd.
by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Good ol’ Clive.
I don’t like this government, so I’ll replace it with one of my own.
I don’t this football competition, so I’ll replace it with one of my own.
Etc and so on.
Seems he knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Yes, clever move by Swan. Seems he’s setting the meme for the Government’s response to any further whining and agitprop from the likes of Gina and Clive.
Given that the MRRT is already popular with the ‘doing it tough’ punters, the Government is setting itself-up to give them a real flogging on this.
About time they went on the front foot with these turds, IMHO.
by smithe on Mar 2, 2012 at 12:08 pm