Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Rossmore:

    I dare say there’d be a few Labor members Unhinging at having a woman PM. My own view is that most of this thing they have for Rudd is simply thinly veiled misogyny.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:21 pm

  2. DG:

    :)

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:21 pm

  3. Rossmore

    Surprisingly, bemused and my say are the same age. Early 60s.
    And both are just a tad older than moi.

    The way he treats my say is appalling enough.
    The way he speaks about the PM is downright disgusting.

    And even though he’s nice to me because of my depression, and his association with mental health – and that he personally knows of some of my history – I find it unforgivable that he is so trenchantly ‘subversive’ towards JG.

    I just hope that bemused, along with the msm, has had the biggest wake-up call with this announcement.

    And I hope the ALP manages to weed out the misogynist brigade. Way past time, imo.

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:22 pm

  4. This is the funniest thing I have seen in politics for many years. I tried to get onto Grattan’s article to comment but comments have closed. Now, isn’t that a surprise!

    Journos and Opposition – face meet egg. Ha ha ha ha ha ha.

    Although, is there a chance McLelland might spit the dummy and resign from Parliament and force a by election? Any thoughts?

    by Lynchpin on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:22 pm

  5. Ha. Just happening to pass by and lo, my name invoked, obviously as a superior opinion to others.

    Can’t see what all the excitement is about regarding the events of the week. I doubt that Gillard went out to shoot herself in the foot just so she could go…ta daaa.

    Damage is cumulative and foot shooting I can assure she will be trying to avoid it. It was just another cock up, messy way of going about things aka Gillard Timor, Malaysia solution and so forth. And how did anybody know Carr was involved in the first place?

    It also kind of makes a liar out her in respect that she said she absolutely didn’t offer Carr the job…then here we are he has the job. So gather the MSM might go back to Gillard on her statements, the MSM being what they are.

    I gather the most likely course of events was that there was a lot of initial resistance to Carr by some who saw his authoritative presence being a threat to them, but wiser heads ended up prevailing and here we thus are.

    Carr is by all reports a good appointment and I think welcome by Gillard as a foil to Rudd and others that may be threatening her.

    But I also think that it will do her damage in that she will have three figures that will overshadow her.

    Rudd obviously overshadows her, at least in respect to public support, and when she appears with Bob Brown he for all the worlds looks like the PM, and with Carr she will also again like inferior.

    The initial result will be good, but for Gillard over the medium term this could diminish her personal standing as PM, which is already quite weak.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:22 pm

  6. Just received this from a friend:

    1. Senate Casual Vacancy Nominations

    Due to the resignation of Senator Mark Arbib, a vacancy has arisen in the Australian Senate. Under Rule N.4, the NSW Labor Party Officers have called for nominations for this position to be determined by a ballot of the NSW ALP Administrative Committee, according to the following timetable:

    Nominations open: 1pm, Friday 2 March 2012
    Nominations close: 5pm, Monday 5 March 2012
    Nomination fee: $750

    Nominations will be accepted by the NSW Labor General Returning Officer at the NSW Labor office, Level 9, 377 – 383 Sussex St, Sydney. All nominations must be on the official NSW Labor nomination form, which can be obtained from the NSW Labor office.

    A ballot of the Administrative Committee will take place if necessary from 6pm to 8pm on Monday 5 March 2012.

    How many expressions of interest do you think they will get?

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:24 pm

  7. One for the Peak Abbott vault:

    TONY ABBOTT: Mr Speaker in trying and in failing to have Bob Carr made the next Foreign Minister of Australia, the Prime Minister has been bullied, beaten and leaked against by the faceless men who are running the Labor Party and controlling this government.

    by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:26 pm

  8. GG

    Yes, PM is having a schocker. Check out the ‘nervous laughter’ insertion in their online transcript:

    JULIA GILLARD: Thank you very much Mr Speaker. And in answer to the Deputy Leader of the Opposition's question; let me restate - don't believe everything you read and let me promise the following - and let me promise the following - whoever I select won't break into a sweat wiping the floor with her.

    (nervous laughter from Labor back bench)

    by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:28 pm

  9. In her handling of this, Gillard has demonstrated a complete lack of authority - a stark contradiction to her claims of a new assertiveness following Monday's defeat of Rudd in the leadership ballot.

    I think this is likely to have been true at the time, but they were later convinced of the worth of his appointment to the party’s prospects.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:28 pm

  10. DavidWH

    Carr will get the Senate vacancy.

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:29 pm

  11. @TP/702,

    So you are using Hit and Run Tactics now?

    Popping in and say “It doesn’t matter what JG will do, it’s death to her”?

    by zoidlord on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:29 pm

  12. Kezza 2 I am a fairly recent arrival to PB, so thanks for that contextual information.

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:29 pm

  13. kezza2@700:

    The way he treats my say is appalling enough.

    Do you have an example? I’m not on PB a lot, but all I’ve ever seen is him disagreeing with her, which I presume you think is ok? Or maybe not?

    by don on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:30 pm

  14. AdamC says:

    I am sure Carr will do fine as foreign minister, though I note the verdict on his Premiership in NSW has been rather mixed. But what was with all the back-and-forth on this appointment? I follow these sorts of things far more closely than your average punter, but my response to this whole thing was less surprise at Gillard’s boldness, but utter confusion.

    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/gillard-blows-a-carrs-berry-at-her-critics/

    Psephos?

    Is dat u? ;-)

    by scorpio on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:31 pm

  15. TP@702:

    Ha. Just happening to pass by and lo, my name invoked, obviously as a superior opinion to others.

    You’ve got to be kidding.

    by don on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:31 pm

  16. TP,

    You’ve clearly lost and now you’ve even lost heart for the battle.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:32 pm

  17. Has anyone got Dennis Shanahan’s email address?

    by Lynchpin on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:34 pm

  18. Lynchpin

    Although, is there a chance McLelland might spit the dummy and resign from Parliament and force a by election? Any thoughts?

    He would risk causing the government to fall and then being known forever as an uber rat in the Labor collective memory ? That alone should keep him in place.

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:35 pm

  19. scorpio

    Psephos?

    Sure sounds like it! He doesn’t sound happy.

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:35 pm

  20. MTBW I have little doubt of that as he wouldn’t have been offered the FM position unless that was locked in. I was just surmising that he may prefer a HofR seat if one became available hypothetically speaking.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:35 pm

  21. Michelle Grattan’s take on the Carr appointment.
    http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/carr-a-good-addition-but-what-a-saga-20120302-1u7gq.html

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:36 pm

  22. Local Red Neck Radio, 6PR has Liberal Party mouthpiece Paul Murray (ex-West) on and failed (sacked from the job) ex-newspaper editor Paul Armstrong of the West – further to the right than Murray – being very sour about the Bob Carr appointment.

    Grudgingly, they admit that it is a “good idea” but why “didn’t she tell and truth and be open about it.”

    You can’t take a trick with this mob.

    Not one word about the mountain of egg across the face of the media as a whole and just how wrong many of them got it.

    Then Murray, quoting Andrew Probyn’s article in the West today – as “Probyn being friendly to the government”. We never hear, of course, Murray or Armstrong admitting they are both anti-Labor and “friendly” to the conservatives. Thus, they quality as being rank hypocrites.

    Not that many below the age of 60 actually listen (10% of the listening demographic between 9 am and noon) but 6PR seems happy with their stuff as part of the Fairfax group.

    On the other hand Geoff Hutchinson -ABC mornings – interviewed someone from the IPA on Swan’s essay piece – and gave a brief outline on what the IPA stands for and his opening remarks, wtte, that coming from their perspective, it was unlikely they would agree with Swan.

    It is a pity more in the ABC don’t do the same thing.

    Murray and Armstrong are lost causes – ex-editors of the West and spruikers for the Liberals.

    by Tricot on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:36 pm

  23. So you are using Hit and Run Tactics now?

    Oh, brother, one does have to work you know and not always the luxury to sit on PB goofing off all day.

    But I can post a continual stream of comments if you wish.

    And just because it does agree with people’s seeming adulation of all things Gillard doesn’t mean it isn’t more likely.

    I believe that I am right in that a figure like Carr will actually pale Gillard by comparison, and the public might end up thinking that either he or Rudd should be PM. A reasonable forward look I believe.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:36 pm

  24. Robert McClelland making an announcement about his political future later this afternoon – will he spit the dummy and bring down the government entirely?

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:37 pm

  25. Bob Brown he for all the worlds looks like the PM

    Well that explains TP’s comments. He thinks Bob looks like a PM!

    by CTar1 on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:37 pm

  26. The botched attempt to woo the former NSW premier to Canberra has damaged the PM's credibility.

    ... a ministerial rebellion had forced Gillard to drop an offer to make Carr foreign minister ...

    But it is Gillard who's the biggest loser. She's taken a double hit. She has not been able to carry through what she was apparently inclined to do in her reshuffle, making her look ineffective -and her blanket denials of the story have opened her to accusations of lying.

    poroti, @ 599.

    That sounds like a political commentator’s epitaph, to me. Time to sheath the quill, Michelle. She was completely, utterly, comprehensively – WRONG.

    It’s obvious there is no love lost between PM Gillard and Ms Gratten. I think it was Puff who commented on the pecking order for questions.

    It seems our PM has sent Michelle to the backbench.

    But, generally, didn’t the PM say last year to journalists: “Don’t write crap.”

    Clearly, they weren’t listening.

    by Scringler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:38 pm

  27. DavidWH:

    At the presser Carr joked about becoming one of those 90yo US Senators who gets in and stays there forever and a day.

    I don’t think he cares whether he’s in the Senate or the House, so long as he is FM.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:38 pm

  28. This business is really typical of Gillard’s handling of things. Nothing ever smooth and efficient. Always some sort of mess due to something.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:38 pm

  29. Lynchpin

    I tried to get onto Grattan’s article to comment but comments have closed.

    Wouldn’t have mattered, Lynchpin.
    I commented twice this am, and didn’t get published.

    7.36am: Does your venom towards the PM never end?

    Do you not see that the "dud" December reshuffle smoked out the Rudd-behind-the-scenes destabilisation, forcing him to show his hand publicly before he was ready?

    There was a time when you saw the big picture with clarity, now you can't see the forest for every sapling, let alone the trees.

    What a shame for your brilliant career to end in such yawning dross.
    Posted 7.36am

    AND

    8.05am: Compare your measured tones when announcing Helen Coonan's retirement from the Senate. You even had quotes of what she would say.

    You calmly predicted Arthur Sinodinos would be her replacement.

    But where was your follow-up spiteful article when it became clear, within days, that Coonan did not resign for "family reasons" but to take up a $100,000 a-year-job (plus $80,000 bonuses) at Crown Casino on the day her resignation became effective?

    And that it was Coonan, as Communications Minister, who loosened media foreign ownership rules in 2006 that gave her new boss, James Packer a $4.5 billion windfall.

    Time to take both of your feet out of Camp Coalition and return to incisive, unbiased commentary which was always your hallmark, but sadly no more.

    then posted after the reshuffle was announced, and Still didn’t get published.

    Along the lines of: okay, I’ve been polite, how about “Egg meets Face”.

    I really did admire Grattan over the years; I really can’t work out what has happened to her – other than being a Coalition voter.

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:40 pm

  30. David

    I think the Senate and Foreign Affairs will suit him fine. A seat in the Reps would involve a lengthy campaign and given that he walks straight into the Ministry in the portfolio he has always wanted I would think he would be a very happy camper right now.

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:40 pm

  31. If McClennan quits and forces a by election we are going to run out of popcorn.

    by Diogenes on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:40 pm

  32. This business is really typical of Gillard’s handling of things. Nothing ever smooth and efficient. Always some sort of mess due to something.

    It’s called Government.

    by kakuru on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:41 pm

  33. Robert McClelland making an announcement about his political future later this afternoon – will he spit the dummy and bring down the government entirely?

    Why would he be having a presser unless he intended to resign. But he has given the party time to come and beg him to not go I guess.

    So who will run in his place if he does quit. Or will he go to the cross bench!! Or will he just waffle and continue on.. Stay tuned.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:41 pm

  34. Rudd says Carr is an excellent choice as Australian Foreign Minister #auspol #reshuffle

    Can’t disagree – Rudd is being more magnanimous than some people here gave him credit for.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:41 pm

  35. Exactly. It’s none of their business what conversations Smith had when. Since when has the press demanded a detailed chronology, down to every meeting and phone call, of the allocation of ministers?

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:42 pm

  36. Grattan has a new article now open for comments:
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/carr-a-good-addition-but-what-a-saga-20120302-1u7gq.html

    by Think Big on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:42 pm

  37. Thomas Paine: Would Labor be more concerned about a byelection in Barton(Sydney) than one in Griffith(if KR had quit entirely)?
    Good question.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:44 pm

  38. It really is a bit of a rib-tickler.
    For months the MSM has been wringing its hands about how, even when the PM does something right, she gets the “politics” wrong and therefore, it isn’t the MSM who are damaging her, she’s doing damage to HERSELF.
    As a result of this week, the PM can shake her head and say what a pity it is that the MSM has done so much damage to ITSELF without any help from her!

    by ajm on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:44 pm

  39. MTBW I was just speculating that Carr may be a safer choice if Barton comes into play. But it is all speculation at this time.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:44 pm

  40. TLM

    Rudd is being more magnanimous than some people here gave him credit for

    He has no choice. He wants to be leader again and this is the healing period and he has to join in. He’s just acting how he needs to with that in mind. Nothing whatsoever to do with magnanimity.

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:45 pm

  41. @kakuru/729,

    Yup, @TP makes it sounds like it’s only a Labor thing, but in reality it happens in all parties.

    Give it up @Thomas Paine.

    by zoidlord on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:45 pm

  42. Has anyone got Dennis Shanahan’s email address?

    Shamahan@hades.com

    by Tom Hawkins on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:46 pm

  43. A profile of the electorate of Barton:
    http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/barton.htm

    A lot of the territory it covers was won by the Liberals in the 2011 state election.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:46 pm

  44. Labor would be in real trouble in Griffith without Rudd. Labor is not all that loved up here at the moment.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:47 pm

  45. McClelland is a second generation politician (his father was a Minister under Gough). I find it difficult to believe he’ll walk away from his family heritage, years of service to Labor and become a self serving prima donna.

    I’d expect him to say he doesn’t like the demotion, but he will cop it and move to the back bench.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:47 pm

  46. Will Cheeseman also do the same thing. Can’t imagine he would want to hang around either.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:47 pm

  47. confessions

    Michelle Grattan’s take on the Carr appointment.
    http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/carr-a-good-addition-but-what-a-saga-20120302-1u7gq.html

    Feck me she didn’t miss a beat. Her total wRONg a couple of hours back just never happened. Straight into the crap.

    Carr gave Gillard a lesson in leadership panache.

    But then, it's been a draining week for Gillard, despite her big victory over Kevin Rudd.

    Gillard might pale by comparison as a performer, but at least, with Carr safely in the Senate, she doesn't have to worry about his arrival generating leadership speculation. If he were in the lower house, it would have been another matter

    .....But spare a thought for Stephen Smith, a serious loser............And this is the man some were touting for leader only a few months ago

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:47 pm

  48. I’ll stick my neck out and predict at worse, McClelland will announce he will retire at the next election, but I can’t see him pulling the pin now.

    by madcyril on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:49 pm

  49. A lot of the territory it covers was won by the Liberals in the 2011 state election.

    The Coalition won almost everything at the 2011 state election.

    by kakuru on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:49 pm

  50. Thomas Paine: Would Labor be more concerned about a byelection in Barton(Sydney) than one in Griffith(if KR had quit entirely)?

    Griffith they would loose no matter who they put up. The protest vote would be overwhelming. And for Barton, well many disappointed Rudd and Labor supporters may have a protest vote, and if the Opposition put up a reasonable candidate it could be lost don’t you think?

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:50 pm

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