Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2750 Responses

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  1. Out here in voter land, people are asking me who Bob Carr is.

    Diog, South Australia is bigger than you. Try not to stay in the well for too long.

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:08 pm

  2. Kezza2@927:

    Yep, don professes to be a newbie.

    I wouldn’t call myself a newbie, and nor did I. All I said was that I don’t spend as much time on the blog as many others here, and in fact there are days, even weeks, when I don’t log on at all, but I have been reading and posting here since just after Kev became PM, when I discovered the site through Poss’s site. Thus I felt that there must have been something that bemused posted to give you solid evidence for your accusations.

    I am starting to see a pattern here. You seem not to be able to read plain english, so it is not surprising that you seem unable to interpret people’s comments correctly.

    How are you getting on with the dossier on bemused’s supposed misogyny? Got a big fat file yet?

    by don on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:09 pm

  3. Diog – it’s SA isn’t it – just say he’s a serial killer

    I hear fatty obarrel has instant recognition in SA

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:09 pm

  4. Apparently, MTR is off the air.

    Can today get much better?

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:09 pm

  5. Having said that given the choice between the PM and Rudd I would pick the PM. Rudd was given a great chance and basically blew it. Few PM’s have enjoyed the popular support Rudd did and unfortunately he wasted that support.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:11 pm

  6. I hear fatty obarrel has instant recognition in SA

    In contrast to NSW, where he’s pretty much unknown. He’s only the Premier.

    by kakuru on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:11 pm

  7. William@928

    I am incredulous that more than 10 people turn up to any party meeting of any party these days!

    Good point Diog – either too old/young to remember or care who BC is!

    by Tricot on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:11 pm

  8. @ don

    I am starting to see a pattern here. You seem not to be able to read plain english, so it is not surprising that you seem unable to interpret people’s comments correctly.

    So am I.
    You’re not bemused’s brother by any chance? :lol:

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:12 pm

  9. http://www.wisconsinhistory.org/whi/fullRecord.asp?id=56976

    Previous best media far cup….goes back to 1948

    by Kinkajou on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:12 pm

  10. Can today get much better?

    Statutory Media watchdog recommended? News Media Council will make deliverance seem squeal-less.

    by ruawake on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:13 pm

  11. Bemused now come on it went back further than that the fact that i was never addressin g my remarks to u but u chose to co ment but don t worry u won as usual

    by my say on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:13 pm

  12. Gusface snowtown the musical

    by Dr John on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:14 pm

  13. zoomster @ 881

    zoomster
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 4:19 pm | Permalink
    bemused

    for someone who supports the party and its leader, you do a good imitation of someone who doesn’t.

    I call it as I see it.

    This is a blog for comments and analysis, not propaganda. I could of course write propaganda if appropriate.

    I think this has the potential to come back and bite the PM and the Govt. I hope I am wrong, but have been around long enough to recall smart moves like appointing Vince Gair as an ambassador to create a senate vacancy.

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:14 pm

  14. Don wny did u see the need to comment
    i the first place ,

    by my say on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:15 pm

  15. Nice.

    Sinodonis v. Carr.

    Should be fun ….

    by muttleymcgee on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:17 pm

  16. Bemused see my #828
    Nominations for the pre-selection are now open and close 5pm Monday with an immediate election in the administrative committee if required.
    Pre-selection processes are now followed and any party member can stand. Good luck if you do

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:17 pm

  17. dr john

    lets write it?

    fatty could be sweeney todd

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:18 pm

  18. bemused

    there is a difference between ‘calling it as you see it’ and saying that loyalty to the party means supporting the leader and then not doing it.

    No one is asking you to spout propaganda. No one is asking you to accept the decisions of the party without question.

    In fact, no one is asking you to post anything at all – and that is sometimes the best option.

    The only thing I have asked you to do is to back up your assertion that the party is filling this Senate vacancy in a way different to the way they’ve filled similar vacancies in the past.

    I assume you can’t do this – in which case, you’re being disloyal simply for the sake of it.

    You also should recognise that it’s more than a little hypocritical to criticise others – such as mysay – for qualifying their support for the party whilst doing the same yourself.

    By all means feel free to criticise the party. But do so on the basis of fact, not fiction, don’t pretend that you’re supporting the party and its leader, and don’t accuse others of doing things you’re doing yourself.

    by zoomster on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm

  19. U call every thing as u see it u know nothing about me my life my family , call as u see what if i chose no t osupport labor re rudd thats my busi ess why do u need to comment i call it as i see it
    And also u must of been about 23 when you stood for parliment you would of been one of the youngest in parliment ,, in those days .

    by my say on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm

  20. Saw replay of Abbott’s presser. What a grub

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm

  21. Bemused has done nothing to deserve being called a “misogynist”. Please desist from this nonsense.

    by William Bowe on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm

  22. Bemused has done nothing to deserve being called a “misogynist”. Please desist from this nonsense

    Yeah

    he has supported females for 40 years

    just not JG

    ;)

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:23 pm

  23. victoria

    Saw replay of Abbott’s presser. What a grub

    What was he up to ? Not being the center of attention is hard on him.

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:24 pm

  24. A little letter from Wayne Swan with an invitation for some interaction
    http://campaigniq.communityengine.com/em/mail/view.php?id=1787454012&a=26848&k=1b9ec27

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:24 pm

  25. I’m told that “the back end of the website will go down tonight from around 6pm to 9pm”. I’m guessing that includes comments.

    by William Bowe on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:25 pm

  26. We’re very parochial in SA. The only time we noticed a state premier from anywhere else was when Kennett stole the Grand Prix from us.

    by Diogenes on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:25 pm

  27. zoomster @ 898

    zoomster
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 4:28 pm | Permalink
    geoffrey

    by no possible stretch of the imagination, by no interpretation of the party rules, can Gillard be referred to as an illegitimate leader.

    Let’s deal with bemused’s points:

    1. This Senate vacancy has been dealt with in exactly the same way all similar vacancies have been dealt with by the Labor party. (Welcome to provide me with examples showing otherwise).

    2. A proven performer has been selected for what may well be a short term position – these casual vacancies often are – rather than putting in a putative future star who might then get burnt when the ‘real’ Senate ticket is put together.

    If Carr is a success, he stands a good chance of retaining a winning position on the Senate ticket for the next election; if he doesn’t, it will be easy to ease him out and replace him with a young up and comer.

    I agree with you that geoffrey is wrong on that point. In fact it is absurd.

    Using the same numbering.

    1. So it is a repeat offence? That sure makes me feel better!

    2. Carr certainly had some ability as a politician winning elections and I don’t in any way wish to understate that. But to me it is a lost opportunity to allow the pre-selection of fresh blood with talent. For what? Some perceived short-term advantage?

    When would Carr’s spot be up for re-election? If 2013, he would be 66 and at the end of a 6 year term, 72.

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:25 pm

  28. Laurel Irving ‏ @laurelirving7

    Bizarre end to #MTR Newsreader forced to stop mid sentence. V. ugly. Station now off air after going into administration.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:25 pm

  29. William, are you a girl?

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:26 pm

  30. Poroti

    Abbott emphasised that JG is a liar. She lies about everything, and she lied about Bob Carr. When asked three times, she lied each time. He referred to the cock crowing three times. As in Jesus was being betrayed. This man sickens me

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:27 pm

  31. Carr is threatening to go on till his 90′s.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:27 pm

  32. A clear demonstration as to how the PM has abrogated proper ALP pre-selection processes. It is as Rodney Cavalier says, the party is now run by a ‘political class’ who basically ignore the members.

    It’s a bit rich to use “now run” isn’t it? This is the way all the parties have done it since Federation, except of course the Democrats and look where they ended up. Pragmatic filling of casual vacancies always pisses off a few grassroots members and “loyalists” waiting for their turn at the trough but also gives the parties a chance to shoehorn in talented people.

    by kevjohnno on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:27 pm

  33. Poroti I think the centre of attention is shifting and Abbott needs to start talking about substantive policy to stop that momentum. I expect PB’ers or the majority will have cause to be happier in the months ahead unless Abbott can make that transition.

    It may be a tough period for me :)

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:28 pm

  34. Victoria, remember when I said PM would be flanked by the wise “OWL”. I think he turned up today.

    by jenauthor on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:29 pm

  35. Well bemused may not be a misogynist (although I think the jury may still be out!) but he’s certainly outed himself as ageist!! :)

    Seriously, shouldn’t we have some older people in our parliaments anyway?

    by ajm on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:30 pm

  36. kezza2 @ 910

    bemused

    you can’t even be gracious in acknowledging a win for the PM today.

    How is appointment of ministers a ‘win’?

    And your comment is all down hill from there.

    Where have I ever disputed the Julia Gillard won a clear victory over Kevin Rudd in Monday’s leadership ballot?

    And what has my local MP got to do with anything?

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:31 pm

  37. bemused

    1. It is the standard way these vacancies are filled. Because they happen whilst Parliament is operating, they need to be filled as quickly as possible. (As it is, the necessity for the relevant State parliament to sign off on them can cause considerable delays).

    For someone who has been in the party a lot longer than I have, you think you’d be aware of this.

    Conroy was the first example I was aware of, and that was well over fifteen years ago.

    2. These vacancies are for the unexpired portion of the Senate term. Arbib was elected in 2007, so 2013 is the end of the term.

    My rule of thumb is that it takes a year to settle into a totally new position. Better to have someone who can settle into the parliament quickly, because they don’t have as much to learn. If he doesn’t perform, he can leave with dignity in 2013.

    by zoomster on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:31 pm

  38. A coupe of my contributions on Twitter this arvo ….

    Today PM reminded media: "Don't write crap" All the egg-on-face has every hacks scrambling to put a face-saving spin on it

    Today PM also reminded the media: "You are NOT in charge. You are NOT players. The Liberal Party is NOT an ALP insider"

    by jenauthor on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm

  39. @DavidWH/982,

    Can you remind us again, what policies? :P

    And btw, looks like competition is heating up on the NBN Satellite pricing front, iiNet and IPStar battling out while Optus and iPrimus are gearing up.

    by zoidlord on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm

  40. Bob Carr:

    As I said earlier, my opinion of him is quite split. I thought his term as premier was what led to the disaster the NSW ALP government turned into.

    On the other hand, he is smart and says sensible things I agree with, I like his geekiness/dorkiness that he obviously revels in.

    As far as it goes, FA is a perfect portfolio for him (no major infrastructure to not fund!) and I think he can do well.

    I expect that Julia Gillard is more likely to listen to Bob Carr on FA matters than Kevin Rudd, and that is likely to mean a more balanced approach to the Middle East (which I would very much like to see), and perhaps less willing to go all-the-way with the U-S-A (though that would be a first for any Australian Government in a very long time).

    I’m curious about what is going to happen re: Julian Assange. There’s the historical mis-step over his “illegal” acts, and the McClelland goof talking about revoking his passport. (I have wondered if McClelland gave the PM bad advice at that time and she went along with it, and whether that’s related to McClelland’s fall from grace – obviously the PM still bears responsibility for what she said at the time). I think if the new StratFor leaks are born out and the US is planning on using some dodgy hidden indictment to get Julian Assange bundled from Sweden to the US that Julia Gillard is in for a world of political pain and needs to start adjusting the government’s stance right now.

    I don’t think there’s a lot the Australian government can do, but they should start rattling the cage a little to make it clear that underhand dealings in relation to Julian Assange will cause serious friction in our relations with the US. The government needs to be able to say they’ve been defending Julian Assange at the highest levels, which is obviously not true at the moment.

    by Jackol on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm

  41. The sound of the empty vessel is getting quieter by the day.

    by BK on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm

  42. Diogenes

    We’re very parochial in SA. The only time we noticed a state premier from anywhere else was when Kennett stole the Grand Prix from us.

    Many of us would willingly have given the GP back to you, with Kennett as the icing on the cake. :)

    by lizzie on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:33 pm

  43. I think we should run a chook raffle on how long past 9pm it is when the site comes back fully. Sorry William.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:33 pm

  44. Zoidlord any policy which doesn’t include the words repeal and no would be fine with me

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:35 pm

  45. victoria

    Poroti
    Abbott emphasised that JG is a liar. She lies about everything, and she lied about Bob Carr. When asked three times, she lied each time. He referred to the cock crowing three times. As in Jesus was being betrayed. This man sickens me

    Thanks.Sounds like he has been slumming it over at Pies blog. They are big on the lying liar Juliar over there :(

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:35 pm

  46. Abbott emphasised that JG is a liar. She lies about everything, and she lied about Bob Carr. When asked three times, she lied each time. He referred to the cock crowing three times. As in Jesus was being betrayed. This man sickens me

    He is unraveling. The tension in his voice this afternoon shows that he is about to explode. His missing ring coupled with the PM kicking him in the head several times since she won over the indies has pushed Abbott to the point of doing something that his party will be embarrassed by for a very long time.

    by Tom Hawkins on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:36 pm

  47. 2. These vacancies are for the unexpired portion of the Senate term. Arbib was elected in 2007, so 2013 is the end of the term.

    Sort of – his seat will be up for election at the next General Election, presumably in 2013, but because of the Senate/House timing getting out of sync will still have his seat until June 2014.

    by Jackol on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:37 pm

  48. victoria

    He referred to the cock crowing three times. As in Jesus was being betrayed. This man sickens me

    That is a shocking remark. Is he losing it?

    ajm
    I began to get stirrings of revolt against ageism, and hoped someone else would take the baton.

    by lizzie on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:37 pm

  49. Tom Hawkins @ 837

    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 5:00 pm | Permalink
    I have worked for and supported female ALP candidates for about 40 years.

    So why have you decided to stop doing so now?

    Ummm well my female State Member lost her seat at the State Election.

    The AEC has re-distributed me out of a Federal Electorate where I was represented by a female member into one where I have a male MP.

    Not my fault!

    But I believe Alan Griffin may be retiring at the next election and if a female is pre-selected I will be campaigning for her.

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:38 pm

  50. Lateline ‏ @Lateline
    Tonight on Lateline: We are joined by Christopher Pyne, Manager of Opposition Business - ABC1 at 1025pm.

    Runs into the garden and screams. Noooooooo!

    by lizzie on Mar 2, 2012 at 5:39 pm

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