Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2750 Responses

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  1. One thing The Don was big on was: keep your top hand forward of your bottom hand.

    I dont use either hand for my bottom

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:20 pm

  2. I want Sri Lanka to win!

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:21 pm

  3. YES! YES! YES!

    Now I hope Australia flogs Sri Lanka in the finals.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:22 pm

  4. Sachin goes home without a ton in Oz.

    by This little black duck on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  5. @William/@Rossmore

    I’m not so sure why you believe the comments were true at the time, perhaps they were incorrect from the beginning?

    You not giving credit where credit is due.

    by zoidlord on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  6. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    The biggest losers, the Gang of 4: Hatcher, Shananana, Coorey & Grattan – credibility none, zero, zilch, nougt, fuackall

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:24 pm

  7. 2/.....Julia Gillard plays politics her way.

    3/.....Julia Gillards way is far superior to their way.

    as recent events have proved.

    She blindsides the press gallery, who are still playing the Rudd Way where titbit leaks to favourites are the order of the day rather than look more strategically.

    I sincerely hope she prevails over the lazy sods, because Australia is very poorly served by our media.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:26 pm

  8. So Tendulkar completes an entire tour of Australia without scoring a single century.

    by ShowsOn on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  9. btw

    where have all the fibs gone?

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  10. The pinot noir is kicking in.

    Reflecting on the days events, and the Prime Minister’s assured and masterful performance at the media conference, I finally understood what Menzies meant when he said “I did but but see her passing by ….”

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  11. @John_Hanna 40 years of repression & now this, like watching yr maiden aunt hit the sherry & pash the barman

    I’ll take that. Forty years of repression. She is now free. The nag has thrown the bit.

    by Scringler on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  12. where have all the fibs gone?

    Long time passing.

    by This little black duck on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  13. Oakey @ 1396:

    That’s not being fair to New Idea

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  14. All of a sudden his leak has proved not clear water but unadulterated sewage.

    I doubt that. His leak was probably right, what he lacked is a later leak as things changed.

    2/.....Julia Gillard plays politics her way.

    I take this was meant to be humour since her political nouse is abysmal as even the handling of this episode showed. She got the big fish in the end but not after some problems and some leaks.

    Fortunately for her the fish was big enough to overshadow the clumsy execution and leaks.

    Gillard’s party ‘supporters’ as such as they might be, must be shit scared of her next election campaign, which she won’t survive to.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  15. @TP/1413,

    Once again you’re creating fear and speculation, not needed on Forums thanks.

    Put a sock in it.

    by zoidlord on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:33 pm

  16. TP

    We know that a 3rd candidate just got one more vote today thanks to Ms Gillard’s blundering :D

    by Gary Sparrow on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:33 pm

  17. If the report commissioned after the last election concluded that Rudd and his followers had to be moved out of the ministry, a faceless man sacrifice given, the biased section of the media shown up by being fed targeted leaks and a respected replacement found for FM, it seems to have been pretty successful.

    Even to this newish political observer, (as in the Slipper situation) this is devastating politics that would be highly lauded within media circles if it was Howard or Keating. However, most are too far into their Coaltion Party talking points meme that Gillard can’t be trusted etc. and now also trying to cover their own backsides.

    Let’s see if any of the gossip columnists are not dim enough to realise that this wasn’t just a fluke thought up on the spur of the moment.

    by killerbees on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:34 pm

  18. Old news now, and probably discussed here already, but here’s Charles Richardson in Tuesday’s Crikey.

    This year large sections of the media seem to have written the government off — despite the fact that it is up to a year and a half out from the election.

    What a difference five years makes. For the first half of 2007 the federal government was well behind in the opinion polls — much further than the Gillard government is now. Yet none of the media commentary took its defeat as a foregone conclusion. It was treated as very much a going concern, albeit one that was facing a difficult task ...

    So why the difference? Why do the media not display the same openness to that possibility that they did in 2007?

    The cynical answer goes something like this: the different thing about 2007 is that it was a Coalition government, and Labor governments are held to a different standard. The media is run by big corporations, so it’s natural that the party committed to the interests of the rich and powerful is looked on more favourably. News Ltd in particular has actively crusaded against Labor and the rest have largely followed its lead.

    I have a natural resistance to conspiracy theories, so I regard the cynical answer as very much a last resort. But it’s not easy to come up with an alternative explanation ...

    Another difference — and here I suspect we are on firmer ground — is the peculiarly histrionic nature of the opposition to the Gillard government, out of all proportion to its real or imagined sins and a complete contrast to anything the Rudd opposition said in 2007. In effect, Tony Abbott’s tone may have bullied the media into playing along with his narrative: forget the evidence, just follow the shouting.

    But that just pushes the question back, to why this government rather than its predecessors has attracted such animus. One may say that it’s just because the opposition happens to have elected a peculiarly histrionic leader, but a glance at the United States, where the opposition to Barack Obama seems to have a similar quality, suggests that there is a deeper pattern at work.

    And that brings us back to conspiracy theories: that a woman from a left-wing background, like an articulate progressive black man, sets off especially powerful alarm bells among the owners of capital and their lackeys in the press. I don’t like it, but I’m having trouble finding anything better.

    by William Bowe on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:37 pm

  19. where have all the fibs gone?

    They read this morning’s papers and all went off to celebrate Labor’s botched reshuffle.

    by Aguirre on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:37 pm

  20. Chrissie Pyne YES!!!!

    “one foul swoop” hahaha

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:39 pm

  21. I see Glen is only here to stir again.

    by Gary on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  22. ha

    paine engine

    what causes u to burst a boiler so regularly?

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  23. Emma is giving it to young Christopher :-)

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  24. William 1417
    “histrionic” is an interesting term to use about Abbott when the thrust of his argument is that the media perception of JG has a misogynist basis.

    by Oakeshott Country on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:43 pm

  25. sets off especially powerful alarm bells among the owners of capital and their lackeys in the press. I don’t like it, but I’m having trouble finding anything better

    Bilbo

    Iz u finally admitting defeat?

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:44 pm

  26. William, re the Crikey piece:

    I think it’s even simpler than that. Howard had been there 11 years, and had come back from fairly dire positions before. You’ve gotta give a man with his track record a bit of a chance.

    What’s interesting about the current situation is that the ALP are being written off not in the election year but a full 18 months out. That’s a very early call.

    by Aguirre on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:44 pm

  27. Emma is giving it to young Christopher

    Well, at least it’s late at night.

    by Gary on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:44 pm

  28. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Emma is sticking it up Poodle Pyne Orifice #Lateline

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:46 pm

  29. His dad was a conscientious objector in WWII.

    Must have been a tough man, cojones like footballs to stand up for his morals in that periond, hats off.

    by HaveAchat on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:47 pm

  30. I see Glen is only here to stir again.

    Glen is simply claiming back what is his, the title of PB’s Resident VI

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  31. Gary, it’s sweet. The tide is turning? Perhaps the events of the last week have embarrassed some in the media to the point where they are thinking “We can’t get away with this any more”.

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  32. watching lateline

    by Mod Lib on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  33. Fulvio@1331

    Made this point this morning when I heard Mother Hutchinson.

    However, Liberal mouthpiece Paul Murray, and Rabid Right ex-West editor Paul Armstrong on 6PR were there usual anti-Labor, anti-government selves between 11am and noon.

    Begrudgingly admitted it was a good call, but that “Julia still lied about it all” or wtte.

    Unfortunately, Murray gets away with his pro Liberal stuff all time time, cloaked in his idea of “balance”

    Armstrong was there for the “Friday Free for All” as 6PR quaintly calls it – usually a free anti-Labor bash.

    What that loser Armstrong was doing there was anyone’s guess. I was surprised he was still in the State and with a job. Something to do with a “magazine”.

    by Tricot on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm

  34. Re George Williams as High Court justice: A truly silly idea despite him being a nice person and bright. Classic green party stuff, not one for the grownups.

    An academic with no significant court experience is a very very poor plan, generally only supported by academics with no significant court experience. Cant see Nicola backing this one at all and a good thing too.

    Even within academic life, George has not much outside constitutional law – and believe it or not the HCA has a much wider diet that that. Criminal appeals anyone? Tax? Tort? Property law?

    And to replace Gummow of all people!

    Lets recall that WMC Gummow (how could Lavarch as a Labor Attorney appoint a conservative black letter guy like that? etc etc blah blah) is the one who effortlessly deployed his knowledge of and experience in all branches of property law as the key judgment to deliver the win for indigenous people in Wik, extending beyond Mabo, when Brennan CJ didn’t have the courage or the smarts for the job, and even Kirby was pretty nervous.

    by Marrickville Mauler on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm

  35. What I have said is a fairly reasonable assessment.

    As regard the media being more or less aggressive to gillard as opposed to Rudd and other Labor PMs I don’t see it. It has never been good, and certainly they had Rudd all lined up over the Grech affair. I guess there should be a proper analysis of same before it can be said it is true.

    As for the Australian public’s ‘dislike’ of gillard I think it is pretty clear that comes from the nature of her coming to power, the poor comparison between her style and Rudd’s, her failing to win an election and thus badly needed legitimacy, a number of clumsy efforts that just made her look poorly. I think she can blame herself as much as anybody.

    by Thomas Paine on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm

  36. Emma whatshername on Lateline is doing a sterlig brilliant job tonite on Christopher Pyne. She’s channeling the PM. I’m loving this. All of a sudden the Libs are being put to the the sword. She asked him what were the Libs polices: He said, get this, No carbon tax, no mining tax (but he didnt mention no boats … very interesting that I thought.), etc etc

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:49 pm

  37. They’re probably getting sloshed on good champagne, Emma

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:51 pm

  38. @TheFinns/1427,

    ewwwwww, gross, you don’t know what’s been up their…..

    by zoidlord on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:51 pm

  39. I take this was meant to be humour since her political nouse is abysmal as even the handling of this episode showed. She got the big fish in the end but not after some problems and some leaks.

    Fortunately for her the fish was big enough to overshadow the clumsy execution and leaks.

    Gillard’s party ‘supporters’ as such as they might be, must be shit scared of her next election campaign, which she won’t survive to.

    Yeah, thanks for that Eeyore.

    Let us know when you’ve finished sulking over Rudd and are ready to enter the real world again.

    by Aguirre on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:51 pm

  40. I don’t like it, but I’m having trouble finding anything better.

    The argument becomes more compelling when you see it put to those who claim it’s nonsense. Watch their response. It’s the same as when the racism argument is put to Obama’s detractors who have no logical basis for opposing him.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm

  41. re 1436: Emma was wondering why no Gov’t representitive would appear for comment

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:53 pm

  42. Thanks, missed that William. Charles Richardson has more of the kind of fair minded analysis that I hoped I would find when I subscribed to Crikey a couple of years ago. Guess I cannot any longer bother to log in any more when I see Bernard screaming at me via email with headlines that put Newslimited to shame.

    by lance boyle on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm

  43. Emma whatshername on Lateline is doing a sterlig brilliant job tonite on Christopher

    Emma Alberici. She is one of the ABC’s best journos, and well capable of taking the reins of 730 from the useless Uhlmann.

    Ulhmann needs to formally resign himself to being one of Abbott’s Useless Men. His interviewing is under-researched, and his style is one of sanctimonious hectoring. Very boring.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm

  44. I think it is pretty clear that comes from the nature of her coming to power, the poor comparison between her style and Rudd’s, her failing to win an election and thus badly needed legitimacy, a number of clumsy efforts that just made her look poorly

    paine engine

    these are just fib talking points

    why do u blow ur bolier so regularly

    is there deeper issues?

    by gusface on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm

  45. Rossmore @ 1435

    Spot on. The transcript would do no justice. The look on Pyne’s dial said it all.

    by Super on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm

  46. Emma from Lateline is one to mark down for the future. A very smart young woman with guts.

    My faith in the ABC is momentarily restored.

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm

  47. Killerbees

    Good observation. Whilst the msm and coalition are all looking in the same direction, the PM manages to blindsight them all

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm

  48. Shows On: An exciting game of cricket. I’m a tad disappointed, I wanted to see Dave Hussey score the winning runs.
    Oh well, as you say, we’ll flog them in the finals. :)

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm

  49. In Victoria we know how to deal with right wing crap, don’t listen, they get the hint and go away.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/no-worries-as-mtr-goes-off-the-air-20120302-1u7ji.html

    One last injection of bile from the news reader, and they are off the air.

    by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:00 pm

  50. Looks like Bob’s on the job already, despite not yet being a Senator nor being sworn in.

    William Hague ‏ @WilliamJHague

    Had a very good talk with my new Australian counterpart Bob Carr this morning. I know he will be an excellent colleague
    Retweeted by Lyndal Curtis

    by sprocket_ on Mar 2, 2012 at 11:00 pm

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