Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).
NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Rossmore
You were right and our moderator was wrong but don’t expect him to admit it ever.
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:34 am
confessions
I have always said that the coalition is being held together by stickytape. Some of the stickytape is bound to peel off sooner or later
by victoria on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:35 am
I have heard that rumour, if it’s true it will eventually come out… mind you if it was about Gillard, the MSM would have happily made up an entire mini-series on it by now… a really crap one.
by Tobe on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:37 am
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/docklands-kennett-was-almost-giving-the-land-away-20120302-1u8l6.html
Mates rates
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:39 am
BB
Very well put again. The thinking of the hacks is so clear: when they get it wrong it’s not their fault, it’s Gillards fault for not doing what they say. The sheer arrogance of writing all those articles BEFORE the FM announcement. And now the hacks are the laughing stock of the nation.
Not that they get this yet. Heather Ewart was criticising Gillard last night for not being perfect. Amazing.
by Son of foro on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:41 am
Bob Carr is PM Gillard’s firewall against any future #Ruddstoration & Any 3rd candidate. Brilliant move by PM, brilliant & stunning #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:44 am
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2012/03/02/journalists-contacting-critics-employers/
Goes through the factors. Then in an update, links to an article showing it’s actually happened recently. Anyone know any other examples?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/02/schembri-now-punks-your-employer-if-you-tweet-criticism/
by Leroy on Mar 3, 2012 at 10:44 am
I keep going back to that moment in QT when Gillard said, “don’t believe everything you read in the papers.” It was predictably treated as mere bluff by the press gallery – and the opposition, judging by how hard they went on the topic after that – but they really need to listen to her a bit more closely.
It should have been a signal for the press gallery to go back and check their facts again. But they knew better of course…
by Aguirre on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:00 am
this photo taken today of Denis Shanahan, the Australian political editor
http://www.webguild.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/egg_face_google.jpg
by sprocket_ on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:05 am
I’ve only ever been exposed to Bob Carr from a distance. I left NSW in 1986 (thanks to the Army I went to 1 Sig Regt in Qld and experienced the joys of a corrupt National government, still don’t trust the ##$#ts and CanDo is not helping in that regard) and apart from visiting relatives or on business have never lived in NSW since.
Having said that I’d view Bob Carr as a politician capable of greater things that what he has already achieved. I very much view his oratorical capabilities as being along the lines of Lincoln, if ever we moved to a republic he’d make a better first president than any of our other “ex” state or federal leaders.
by Smaug on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:09 am
Copenhagen turned the carbon debate on its head. It was a total debacle.
by DavidWH on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:11 am
The other thing about this is that it’s been a long time coming. The MSM have been getting away with misreportage for a while now. Australia Day was the latest clear example of that. In retrospect, it still looks a bit of a stunt, with a few unexpected outcomes that could be fashioned into criticism of the government. But Qantas was a bit like that too, as was the pokies thing, the “carbon tax” thing, etc. And all the Rudd saga. There’s been an unhealthy reliance on rumours and groupthink by the press gallery, and they have been getting a bit lazy and a bit keen to grab a ‘scoop’ – and focus on the ‘human interest’ (let’s say) aspect of politics.
It was only a matter of time before the ALP found a way to take advantage of it. Again, Gillard gave fair warning with the “don’t write crap” advice late last year. And now she’s handed them an object lesson as to what happens if you do write crap. They picked up a false trail (from who knows where?), and she didn’t even really have to fan it, it took on its own life.
I think this was probably a warning too. The leaks have been closed up, but they might get a whiff of something now and then which will prove to be false. Write the truth, confirm your stories, or you will continue to get your arses handed to you.
I doubt it’ll lead to better reportage. But you can only stick your hand in the fire so many times before you learn not to burn yourself.
by Aguirre on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:12 am
I also like the way the opposition keep circling around their favourite topics, looking for something to hang onto.
Boats – no that’s a dead end, now.
Carbon tax -no traction there
NBN – god no
Budget surplus! – no, that leads back to our own costings…. ok…
Boats – damn, we tried that…
A scandal! Carr! That’s the one, we… oh…
Ok… Carbon tax? No…
That circle is getting smaller and smaller.
by Aguirre on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:15 am
The government has a very good return argument on this. The opposition are going to take away the compensation that helps families cope with this increase while at the same time will expect people to believe the electricitiy companies will drop their prices when the tax is taken off. Who will believe that?
by Gary on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
The Finnigans
It was only when I came across your mates on the way over to your place to watch the replay that I realised just how pleased you were
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEXwlilZqnM&feature=youtu.be
by poroti on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
http://theconversation.edu.au/cabinet-reshuffle-gareth-evans-on-bob-carr-5678
by Leroy on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:27 am
Bob Carr would be a good Foreign Minister
by ShowsOn on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:27 am
Bob Carr was interviewed this morning by Geraldine Doogue on RN Saturday Extra. It is well worth listening to if you want to obtain some insight about future directions in FA policy.
During the interview he agreed wtte that the lead up to his appointment was messy but in the end Gillard cut through.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/bob-carr-appointment/3865346
by Pegasus on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:32 am
ShowsOn,
U seem to be stuck in a groove though your repetition is no worse than some others here
by Pegasus on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:34 am
its only a matter of time
by Mick Collins on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:37 am
Leroy:
That is a very disturbing link about The Age’s Jim Schembri contacting critics’ employers.
WTF?
by confessions on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:40 am
smithe
That’s a very good analogy (although surgeons are a lot more accountable than journos for their action).
A critical thing in surgery is the decision to operate. You can be the best technical surgeon in the world but if you operate too early or too late, you aren’t much of a surgeon.
To avoid operating too early, we review the patient frequently, watch their observations and get more test results.
Journos don’t as they barely care if they get it wrong and getting in first is much more important to them.
by Diogenes on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:47 am
I thought we’d put Mr Sheridan to bed last night.
by Boerwar on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:53 am
Jeez! What a trial! I took one for the team and read BOTH Shanahan’s and Kelly’s articles, line by line.
From reading these pieces today, and seeing how much detail their articles contain, or purport to contain, I am forced to one of the following conclusions:
1. They have a few facts and are filling in the gaps with bullshit.
2. There is a super-grass in Labor that is feeding them stuff by the minute.
3. They are tapping phones, or phone message banks.
They are claiming to have blow-by-blow, detailed knowledge of phone calls, discussions, even emotions involved in the past week’s proceedings.
Put aside for one moment the assertion on Tuesday morning by Shanahan that Gillard had “failed” – no “ifs” or “buts” – and that now he says she has succeeded, and Kelly’s use of the words {comic moment|defeat|high farce|roller-coaster week|embarrassment|humiliating consequences|collapse|Monty Python|Gillard brazenness|boasted|nervousness|betrayed|theatre-of-the-absurd|hammed it up|stood up by Gillard|nonsense|actor’s genius|political razor blades|second hit for the team|rescued|narrow escape|chaos|fragility of Gillard’s judgement|fiasco|ludricrous|such a mess|muddying the waters|failed|thin quality|ruthless pragmatism|Gillard is doomed|must revitalise|got out of jail, twice} to describe his and his newspaper’s failure to predict what they now claim was perfectly predictable, if not unavoidably obvious. Kelly even quotes the SMH quoting The Australian as evidence… of something… a bootstrap writ large, maybe (newspapers quoting each other are how bootstraps get started)? There’s also a reference to journalists interviewing other journalists, in this case Fran Kelly interviewing Michelle Grattan… as if THAT meant anything.
These failings are bad enough, but only reflect The Australian’s bias against anything Labor.
It’s the amount of factually-presented detail these articles presents that worries me. In my opinion, it means there is either a monumentally disloyal leaker at the heart of the Labor party; that they made most of it up; or that they have been hacking phones.
Sadly, the latter accusation is an awful one to make, and I hope it’s not true, but News has shat in it own nest on this one, and has form on corruption and payola in the UK and the USA.
How could anyone seriously argue that it couldn’t happen here, the land that spawned Rupert Murdoch and his malignant organization?
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:55 am
Agreed.
Journalists don’t even have to bury their mistakes. Their colleagues don’t even mention that there’s a body to be dealt with. As a collective they step over the carcass pretending it isn’t there.
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 3, 2012 at 11:57 am
It seems so dam obvious to me, yet none in the press have mentioned it. I suppose they don’t want to admit rudd-storation round 17 is a non starter.
by fredn on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Pegasus
The Carr interview with Geraldine Doogue is so refreshing. She actually explores policy and encourages hypothesizing on past and future policy. Good healthy discussion.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/bob-carr-appointment/3865346
That to me is top shelf journalism.
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:02 pm
This Hartcher story is what journos are for
It actually EXPLAINS stuff
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/round-two-to-faceless-foes-20120302-1u8br.html
Rather than mouth off at Hartcher can people explain where he is wrong
by daretotread on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:02 pm
The thought of a leak early in the week and McClelland’s demotion keep coming together ….
Barking up the wrong tree ..?
by muttleymcgee on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Bob Carr is an excellent choice as the Foreign Affairs Minister imo.
by p m z on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Fredn
I think Ruddstoration is probably so last year. Smitheviction is possibly the emerging story.
All he needs to do is to use the word vegemite and it is ON
by daretotread on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:05 pm
@DTR/1775,
Problem himself he is wrong.
It’s not that unions are bad or wrong, it’s just they are needed, I do not see any complaints about the IPA or any criticism of the Coalition Party (i.e. Where they get their money from).
by zoidlord on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:06 pm
The divine Ms M:
http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/local/news/general/solar-plant-pie-in-sky-says-sophie/2475691.aspx
Good to see her promising to take the issue up with the government and fight for her local community…
oh, hang on…
by zoomster on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Pegasus @ 1765
I heard that interview and agree.
I think I was perhaps a little harsh in some opinions I expressed on Bob Carr recently and from hearing that interview it is clear he will bring to the job a vigour that belies his age and he is already pursuing international contacts he has previously had and seeking out new ones.
The process was certainly messy and facing up to that and dealing with it is a better approach than denial and saying it was all a media conspiracy or incompetence.
Peter Hartcher (remember him, the Ruddista ogre so reviled here?) had this to say:
And expect Bruce Hawker to be playing an important role too. After all, he was Bob Carr’s Chief of Staff when Kevin Rudd was Chief of Staff to Wayne Goss.
Carr will use all of these connections to the benefit of Prime Minister Gillard and the Government.
by bemused on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Do you really think that exhuming Carrcass is really going to help Dullard’s election prospects? Come on, Carrcass presided over the worst state government in living memory, he will be 66 next election and really is from an outdated era.
by Nostradamus on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:08 pm
I for one am very suspicious of the direct quotes he attributes to Paul Howes. Was he there? If not why the quotation marks? I only read the first four paragraphs then gave up. It reads like the usual clap trap.
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Nostrils,
Get a tissue, you are dripping.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:09 pm
@Nostra/1782,
Put a Sock in it.
by zoidlord on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:11 pm
by confessions on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Tom
Being a bit narrow minded I think. The article was a fairly detailed and analytical look at the voting and the reasons why.
The Howes quote was pretty believable even if self promotional. I
Moreover it is NOT the guts of the article. It simply analyses the fact that Gillard is supported by unions (left, right and centre) and why that might be.
It suggests Rudd got the unions off side – badly which largely explains his demise.
by daretotread on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:14 pm
If “Ruddstoration is so last year”, why do people keep banging on about it?
by confessions on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:16 pm
I believe that the Coalition are indeed in a strong position to win the next election by a landslide and remain in government for a VERY long time. After all, the politics of FEAR in any environment are stronger than the power of HOPE. That’s why I’m very happy at the relentless negative campaigning by Abbott and also we are getting some help by the mainstream media.
I for one always thought that it was more important to be feared than loved.
by Nostradamus on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:18 pm
confessions @ 1788
So says the main offender who seems still obsessed by it.
by bemused on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Wow, if Nostra thinks Carr was a bad move, Julia clearly made the correct decision.
by zoomster on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:20 pm
That’s where Hartcher lost me.
Pin-Stripe Pete is too much of a bitch for my liking. Until he writes something that is without routine, gratuitous nasty references to Gillard, I wouldn’t give him the time of day.
Hartcher has to realise that HE doesn’t run the country, the government does. A sullen, caustic, biased piece of work, is Hartcher. In the bin with Ol’ Coke Bottles as far as I’m concerned.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Nostradamus – 66 is the new 45 with the experience!
by Dr John on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Nostrils @ 1789
You win, I fear you. I fear you are an idiot. Happy now?
by bemused on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Oh there we go. Nostra’s confirming: Labor will romp it home next election.
by zoomster on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:21 pm
The saga of Mamdouh Habib, an Australian citizen who was subjected to torture and “extraordinary rendition,” is one that has faded from sight.
In late 2010 during a protracted legal case Habib had brought against the Federal Government, a confidential settlement was reached in which Habib received a financial payment and agreed to forgo all future claims against the Commonwealth.
On the 19 December 2011, a report into the involvement of Australian government officials in the illegal arrest, detention, and torture overseas of Habib. was handed to the PM by the Inspector General of Intelligence and Security. An abridged version of the report suitable for public release was also provided.
Despite repeated requests neither report has seen the light of day. Despite a recommendation by the IGIS Habib has not received a copy of the public document.
Both Coalition and Labor governments have been complicit in their secrecy and obfuscation about the Australian Government’s involvement in what happened to Habib.
In contrast, the Greens Party have tried to get to the truth of the matter.
http://newmatilda.com/2012/03/02/truth-about-mamdouh-habib
It could be argued that parallels with the Assange case can be made.
by Pegasus on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Bemused,
Hartcher calling things like a true New South Wales man. Provincialism at it’s best.
As for the story on Union influence in the ALP- Who knew?
As for Hawker: For someone who allegedly has so much experience/understanding of the ALP from within Government and as an advisor, he didn’t show much nous during the ill fated Leadership putsch. I doubt whether Gillard or the movers and shakers in the upper echelons are ever going to trust his judgement or faithfullness to the cause again. He may pick up a few doggy scraps from some of the States. He has built his business around access and influence. Talk about blowing up your business model.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 3, 2012 at 12:22 pm