Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. The end is nigh for MTR:

    Where’s Gina when Menzies House want her.

    by Dr John on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:35 am

  2. BB – great post. Denis Shannahan, Australian journalism’s very own Don Quixote.

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:45 am

  3. I wonder how long till we get this in parliament?
    STFU Gun

    by Musrum on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:46 am

  4. Steve Price and Steve Vizard will be out of a job soon,it would seem – perhaps Price will get a gig on THE BOLT REPORT?

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:52 am

  5. Yet again there is a big difference between the Age and the SMH on how they promote stories in prominent positions on their websites.

    Age – Michelle Grattan: Carr alarm sounds for a losing Gillard – She defeated Rudd but shows no sign of winning battle with herself. (Whatever that means)

    SMH – Lenore Taylor: Tycoons use their ‘poison’: Swan – Economic success is at risk from likes of Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart, Andrew Forrest, Treasurer says.

    by citizen on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:56 am

  6. Morning all

    Cant find anything in the hard copy of the Herald Sun re govt reshuffle.

    Page 4 and 5 are devoted to the latest floods to hit parts of victoria. There was also a landslide at Mt Buffalo, and the area has been blocked off. Some people are now stuck at the National Park including group of school children.

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:57 am

  7. It must be great to own a company with a bottomless pit of money to throw at lawyers and courts and now payouts of out of court settlements to hundreds of victims of his companies crimes.
    It is never ending.
    You would almost think he could halve the costs of his products to consumers if there were no litigations.

    On top of it all it is now almost certain the US will become involved and SeweRoo will have to part with lots more of his hard earned millions as another of his corrupt employees is arrested.

    On Monday, the detective leading investigations into payments to officials and phone-hacking told a public inquiry that there appeared to be a “culture of illegal payments” at the Sun.

    If proven, this could lead to U.S. authorities taking action against News Corp under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act resulting in possible fines of millions of dollars and criminal charges against individuals.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/01/uk-newscorp-hacking-police-idUKTRE8201ET20120301

    by Gaffhook on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:58 am

  8. Wayne Swan’s article in full

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/rising-influence-vested-interests-australia-001-cent-wayne-swan-4670

    The 0.01 Per Cent: The Rising Influence of Vested Interests in Australia
    Wayne Swan
    THE MONTHLY | THE MONTHLY ESSAYS | MARCH 2012
    The rising influence of vested interests is threatening Australia’s egalitarian social contract.

    A decade ago, as I waited for my order outside a Maroochydore fish and chip shop, a tall, barefoot young man strolled past wearing a T-shirt that read: ‘Greed is good. Trample the weak. Hurdle the dead.’ Those brutal lines seemed to encapsulate what was then a growing sense of unease in Australia. The world of my Queensland childhood, governed by its implicit assumptions of equality and mutual care, was being driven from sight by a combination of ruthless individualism and unquestioning materialism. Looking out for number one was not only tolerated but encouraged by a government whose agenda, particularly in industrial relations, seemed very far from the social contract, based on a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work with a decent social safety net for the vulnerable, that had served our nation so well for so long.

    Worth reading rather than just relying on press summaries

    by Leroy on Mar 2, 2012 at 8:59 am

  9. Mod Lib

    What did your PhD examine Dio?

    Neurotransmitters in the human enteric nervous system.

    by Diogenes on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:01 am

  10. Musrum

    I wonder how long till we get this in parliament?
    STFU Gun

    Unfortunately it will be of little use :(

    Sadly, they report that it has no effect on meaningless sound sequences

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:02 am

  11. Swan conveniently forgets that his patron and factional master Bill Ludwig is rather wealthy too.

    by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:06 am

  12. Leroy

    Appreciate the link. Worthwhile read indeed. Swan is definitely articulating what I am thinking. That is why this govt must prevail for as long as possible to ensure that some of the reform agenda such as the mining tax are fully implemented.

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:09 am

  13. poroti@309

    Unfortunately it will be of little use

    Sadly, they report that it has no effect on meaningless sound sequences

    Sigh. Always ahead of us.

    by Musrum on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:10 am

  14. Senior ABC journalists fall for Jon Faine 774 Melbourne’s spoof leak (Garrett to Defence, Adams to Health etc etc) on the new Cabinet. Doing the rounds on Twitter now. Should I be surprised?

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:11 am

  15. Diogs,

    So you are an expert on the “nervous piss”. Very appropriate for your passing interest in politics.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:13 am

  16. Rossmore

    Seriously?

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:13 am

  17. evan,

    You are a moron.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:14 am

  18. Adams?

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:16 am

  19. The grapevine says Dreyfus gets Carr’s portfolio. Coorey says Carr to keep portfolio

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:17 am

  20. Also I wonder if my hunch on Fullilove is correct for the senate vacancy

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:18 am

  21. TLM
    There is wealthy and there is wealthy arskehole.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:18 am

  22. vic,

    Done deal is my info!

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:20 am

  23. GG

    Oh is that right? That would be a good appointment imo!!

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:21 am

  24. Conroy defended Carr on Monday.

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:22 am

  25. Morning all.

    Thankfully no more Bob Carr nonsense – yesterday’s press gallery obsession. Only Michelle Grattan still clinging to the issue for all it’s worth.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:22 am

  26. Do we know when the announcement will be?

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:22 am

  27. triton

    Been reported it will be around lunchtime today

    by victoria on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:24 am

  28. confessions – ABC Breakfast had Beattie and Chikarovski and both were pretty reasonable about the Carr issue.

    Sky (Gilbert) had Hewson for a good ranting and raving about it and then Richardson gave it another good rant both saying her honesty is in disarray. Richardson did make the point that she should just have said wtte ‘yes I spoke to him but we couldn’t make it work so that was it’. I wonder why JG’s office find it hard to advise her along those lines.

    Couldn’t bring ourselves to listen to Kelly and Grattan – past the use by date in this house at the moment.

    by BH on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:26 am

  29. Thankfully no more Bob Carr nonsense – yesterday’s press gallery obsession. Only Michelle Grattan still clinging to the issue for all it’s worth.

    Not sure about that. I’ve read articles by Shanahan, Grattan, Tingle, Coorey and Simon Benson that discuss the Bob Carr issue this morning.

    by madcyril on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:29 am

  30. Kim Carr has been a very important factor in the Victorian factional agreements that have kept the peace. The right are broadly supportive of Carr as an aknowledgement of this role. No one wants to go back to the old days.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:30 am

  31. Penny Wong again shows good judgement.

    “Finance Minister Penny Wong has dismissed claims that Coca Coal Amatil Ltd and ASX Ltd chairman David Gonski called for former Liberal treasurer Peter Costello to be appointed the next chairman of the Future Fund, according to The Australian Financial Review.

    Goldman Sachs Australia chairman Stephen Fitzgerald is the favourite to be named in the role before incumbent David Murray’s departs on March 31.

    According to the newspaper, people involved with the appointment process said that Mr Gonski had called for Mr Costello to be given the position after seeking feedback from the Future Fund’s board of guardians on behalf of the government.

    Senator Wong said Mr Gonski’s role did not include suggesting anyone for the job, only seeking the board’s views on potential candidates.”

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Wong-denies-push-for-Costello-to-get-Future-Fund-r-pd20120302-RYRGS?OpenDocument&src=eid&ir=4

    by CO on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:30 am

  32. I was very happy to see Wayne Swan bringing the buying of democracy by mining interests into the political discourse. Do people think this will play well in the polls?

    by d-money on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:33 am

  33. The HoR today has public hearings for its inquiry into Australia’s biodiversity in a changing climate, which should be interesting.

    When finalised, the report of the committee’s findings can be accessed here:
    http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=/ccea/ccbio/index.htm

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:34 am

  34. BH,

    I reckon the PM is beyond caring about the tainted media advice she recieves. All the recent polls indicate the media furore around the leadership and the hysterically overblown personal criticisms have absolutely no impact on the voting public.

    It’s like a circus in the corner while Gillard gets on with governing.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:34 am

  35. Thanks, victoria. Defence has probably caused the biggest headache if Smith is getting FA.

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:36 am

  36. BH @ 327

    Richardson did make the point that she should just have said wtte ‘yes I spoke to him but we couldn’t make it work so that was it’. I wonder why JG’s office find it hard to advise her along those lines.

    Good point and it raises serious questions about her own judgement and that of her staff.

    I posted on this last night about how the whole thing involved 2 independently stupid ideas that should never have seen the light of day. But they did.

    Once this happened it should have been easily hosed down as Richo said, but it wasn’t. The hole was just made deeper for no apparent reason.

    Interesting to see that the NSW State Secretary was identified as the source of the bright ideas. Surely the adults could have stepped in before this went anywhere near the PM?

    by bemused on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:36 am

  37. BH, madcyril:

    Yikes, spoke too soon! Was going off my twitter timeline. Yesterday was all Bob Carr, today it’s reshuffle.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:38 am

  38. I reckon the PM is beyond caring about the tainted media advice she recieves.

    I don’t think she’s ever cared. She doesn’t play the media like previous leaders have.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:39 am

  39. confessions

    To be fair, some of those articles I mentioned were a mixture of reshuffle and Bob Carr.

    by madcyril on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:40 am

  40. Alan Jones apparently has started an online petition to recall the government. He isn’t getting much support for it though – 349 signatures only.

    Convoy of inconsequence comes to mind.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:41 am

  41. GG – good point. I have to go out for awhile so will rely on Bludgers to keep the good info coming for a read when I get back.

    by BH on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:41 am

  42. Thanks, Leroy. I very much enjoyed Swan’s well argued essay, and look forward to his press club address.

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:42 am

  43. I’ve read articles by Shanahan, Grattan, Tingle, Coorey and Simon Benson that discuss the Bob Carr issue this morning.

    Reckon that increased their combined readership to six.

    by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:42 am

  44. Turnbull sprung once again telling porkies about the NBN. When will he start being truthful?

    http://delimiter.com.au/2012/03/01/turnbull-again-misleads-the-public-on-nbn/

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:43 am

  45. http://www.afr.com/p/national/coalition_to_limit_foreign_buyers_E1IOMT9LTaiQBqTD8b94fN

    Coalition to limit foreign buyers
    PUBLISHED: 9 HOURS 19 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 1 HOUR 55 MINUTES AGO
    SOPHIE MORRIS

    Foreign investment in farmland and agribusiness of more than $20 million would face new scrutiny and be considered in the same “sensitive” category as media and defence under a Coalition plan to bolster Australia’s food security.

    Details of the policy have emerged as Asian investors consider a takeover of foods giant Goodman Fielder. Analysts also anticipate foreign interest in companies that include Ridley Corp, Warrnambool Cheese and Butter, and GrainCorp.

    Nationals Leader Warren Truss, chairman of the committee that devised the policy, also called for closer monitoring of whether foreign buy-ups in a sector such as sugar processing reduced competition. He said securing Australia’s food supply should be of paramount consideration in decisions about foreign investment.

    more in the article

    by Leroy on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:44 am

  46. http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/call_for_overseas_anti_corruption_gTGlwQ29xEZoB1QP6Ju2RJ

    Call for overseas anti-corruption agency
    PUBLISHED: 9 HOURS 15 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 5 HOURS 47 MINUTES AGO
    AYESHA DE KRETSER AND PATRICK DURKIN

    Legal experts have warned that the federal government’s failure to keep up international regulation of bribery and corruption has left local ­companies at risk of falling foul of the law.

    more in the article

    by Leroy on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:46 am

  47. Former NSW Education Minister Verity Firth picks up on an aspect of the Gonski Review which hasn’t had much covereage: public education philanthropy.

    A family wanted to donate more than $20,000 to help Aboriginal students at their local regional high school. They wanted to fund programs to engage parents in their children's education, conduct peer group and cultural activities, and help with teacher training.

    But we had to explain there would be no tax deduction for their donation. If they were providing money for a scholarship to attend an elite school in Sydney, they could get a deduction. But funds to support existing students at an existing school in regional NSW would not meet the Tax Office's criteria

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/let-public-as-well-as-private-schools-benefit-from-donations-20120301-1u5xf.html

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:46 am

  48. Swan rails against vested interests…..meanwhile….

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/letoff-for-lobbyists-as-main-parties-close-ranks-20120301-1u5yr.html

    MORE than 4000 political lobbyists will remain free from parliamentary scrutiny after Labor and the Coalition rejected a call for regulations to be tightened.

    But the Greens criticised the rejection, saying the current regime was ''deficient'' and lagged well behind the US and Canada.

    by Pegasus on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:47 am

  49. for those who have not had the pleasure of experiencing the wisdom of Ray Hadley of 2GB fame, he outlines his world view in this piece today in the Daily Telecrap.

    Each show he does is a recycle through these 10 points, with only minor variations on the themes:

    THIS week's Top Ten:
    1. THERE was a vehement denial on Wednesday from PM Julia Gillard over the story in The Australian about her being overruled by some members of cabinet as she tried to parachute Bob Carr into the senate. By yesterday all media outlets were reporting the story she earlier claimed had no relation to fact. She's not stupid so we can only assume she's the most accident-prone PM since Federation.

    2. What sort of government tells the solar hot water industry they'll continue to support the industry until midway through 2012 and then pulls the pin without any notice in late February? A government that's in total disarray! In an attempt to save $70 million dollars, the government has dudded an entire industry. It's amazing when you think they can spend tens of billions on the NBN but can't afford the remaining $70 million for solar hot water.

    3. The BER still has me perplexed - $16 billion of our money with about a third of it wasted on vastly overpriced infrastructure. Now we discover one of the lead contractors, Reed Constructions, is in strife. We are also told they received $27 million BER dollars up front three years ago because of "cash flow" problems. How can the federal or state Labor governments justify these up-front payments of our money? Premier Barry O'Farrell is filthy. He was told last year that if his government made weekly payments instead of monthly payments to the Reed Group for government contracts, sub-contractors would be paid ... many of them haven't received a red cent.

    4. Japan is the latest of conga line of nations to bail out on a carbon tax or ETS. Internationally we are looking a bunch of drongos. No one else can afford it and neither can we!

    5. Climate change commissioner Tim Flannery told us over the past five years we'd run out of water in Sydney. A spooked premier named Morris Iemma decided to take Flannery at his word and built a desal plant. It will cost us $1.2 billion to close it down. Look out the window Tim, that's rather heavy rain.

    6. Congratulations to District Court Judge Paul Conlon, who came up with a fair and just decision over an appeal against an assault conviction against a hard-working bloke who gave his 13-year-old foul-mouthed stepson a gentle clip over the ear for abusing his long-suffering mother.

    7. What were the hosts of that little-watched Channel 10 program thinking when they made those comments about VC hero Corporal Ben Roberts-Smith? I can find an excuse for an inexperienced female who admitted she'd never heard of the corporal but poor old George Negus illustrated he should confine himself to a corporate box at A-League matches.

    8. This year marks the 150th anniversary of the NSW Police Force. Thank you to all the men and women who currently do their job by protecting and serving the people of NSW.

    9. This week I celebrated 30 years in radio. My thanks to all the well-wishers but I promise there'll be no more celebrations until I hit 50 years. (Geez, I'll be a cranky old bloke by then).

    10. Can't wait to get back into the broadcast box tonight for our radio network for the call of the Brisbane-Parra game. My career as Ray Warren's understudy starts the following Friday when I do the Brisbane-Cowboys games on Channel 9.

    by sprocket_ on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:50 am

  50. I havent seen Kevin Rudd in the media now for about 3 days. Is he now a real “Faceless Man”? #auspol

    by The Finnigans on Mar 2, 2012 at 9:53 am

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