Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Jackol wrote: “The PM has not denied talking directly to Bob Carr – that is not what this is all about.”

    Read the newspapers, and you will think otherwise. The latest headline from The Australian is: “Yes, I did talk to Bob Carr, Julia Gillard admits”. They’re painting her as a pathological liar who is under the control of the factional bosses. Apparently, she lied about the conversation with Carr when the factional heavies leaned on her to appoint one of their chosen ones to the position instead.

    Of course, this is abject nonsense, but if that is what the public are told by the media repeatedly, then the truth becomes irrelevant. The vast majority of Murdoch press articles regarding Gillard insinuate that either she is a compulsive liar or that she can’t have breakfast of a morning without checking with Arbib which jam to spread on her toast.

    The disconnect between the media and reality is growing every day. They control the narrative, and with very little being done from Labor’s end to sell their own coherent vision, that is the way it will stay.

    by AaronH on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:13 pm

  2. Abbott’s parental leave taxes business 1.5% to pay for it. Yet, business has said nothing. If Labor’s, the business be in revolt by now

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:15 pm

  3. Jackol: I know. What I was facaeciously suggesting was if what THEY are saying is true, and if they know it because they had the PM’s phone tapped, then they had an option to effectively put up or shut up … except by putt up, they would have to admit they had the PM’s phone tapped.

    For myself, I actually don’t believe that part of the story is true in any case.

    I think what happened is:

    * some ALP hack in NSW put in the call to Carr and sounded him out both in terms of the Senate position and the FM post.

    * The PM got wind of it and contacted Carr to put him straight that any Cabinet post was HER decision to make and anyone else making such an approach was bang out of order.

    * She might have talked to him generally about the Senate position, I don’t know, but that actually doesn’t go to the crux of the allegations at any rate.

    * Carr indicated to her that he wasn’t interested – in either the Senate position or the FM post.

    * PM hangs up.

    END OF STORY.

    Incidentally, this also fits with the PM’s version of events and Carr’s, up to and including Carr’s original admission.

    Like I said before, it is so easy to put your own perspective on a conversation based upon hearing one half of it. You can also put two stories together and declare them to be different by reinterpretation, or you can declare them to be identical by reinterpretation.

    At the end of the day, the way you reinterpret is dependent on whether you want to see the best or the worst of any given situation.

    It would help if we had a media that did nothing more than keep us informed of FACTS, though, rather than spending their lives guessing, reading entrails and gossiping.

    by Danny Lewis on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:15 pm

  4. Diogenes

    I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.

    True but Strayans were in early back in 1987. Take Peacock and Kennett for instance. Heck no journo would ever think this might be a good jape to get in on would they ;)

    “Howard. You’re a c*nt. You haven’t got my support, you never will have and I’m not going to rubbish you or the party tomorrow but I feel a lot better having told you you’re a c*nt

    http://australianpolitics.com/1987/03/23/kennett-peacock-car-phone-conversation.html

    by poroti on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:15 pm

  5. dio

    btw

    say u r on a landline and are talking to someone on a mobile

    U can be hacked tres easily via the landline (both via remote and patching into the physical phone ine)

    mobile to mobile requires a bit more hi techery

    but it still can be done

    all u need is the handset unique id, and a bit of nouse

    if the devices are encrpted, den u have a problem

    I WOULD SUGGEST THE ALP IMMEDIATELY REVIEWS IT COMMUNICATIONS OPTIONS

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:15 pm

  6. Finns

    george is very talented. I assume he is a professional designer.

    Diog, we are simply humble business people, scrapping for a living, being taxed to death, snowed under the bureaucracy and like Gerry we whinge a lot and often.

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:17 pm

  7. The disconnect between the media and reality is growing every day. They control the narrative, and with very little being done from Labor’s end to sell their own coherent vision, that is the way it will stay.

    Yes! Thank goodness we have a fearless and independent public broadcaster that will report the facts in an unbiased and objective manner … oh, wait …

    by Oscar on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:17 pm

  8. except by putt up,

    *put

    Obviously, they aren’t playing golf ;-)

    by Danny Lewis on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:17 pm

  9. Classic, Oscar!

    At last we have logical explanation of what happened, one where neither person lied, and how a News Ltd staffer might have found out.

    It’s odd that we have the Wrights and Crabb trying to be funny and you surpass them. It deserves MSM run.

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:18 pm

  10. Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:10 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib

    I’m happy to bucket Gillard if I think she’s stuffed up but I can’t see that she has done anything wrong here.

    I think she spoke to Carr and semi-offered him the Senate spot. He probably mentioned his “dream job” of FA, and she would have been non-committal.

    She probably sounded a few people out and one of them flipped out or told someone who flipped out, and they tried to kill it by leaking.

    People may have misunderstood: I have no problem whatsoever with Gillard approaching Carr or offering him any job under her power.

    The issue is trying to kill off the story by just dismissing it repeatedly with the words completely untrue and refusing the journalist’s questions to explain what she meant. She knew exactly what she was doing, she didn’t want any discussion of another ALP leak so soon after saying all was right with the ALP world again…

    Unfortunately, the media have now cottoned on to these little play acts (you know “Its more likely that I will play full forward for…..” etc etc).

    Her deception and the ALP leaks are the story, not whether or not she spoke to Carr which is perfectly reasonable.

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:18 pm

  11. gus

    They’d have pretty good security on the PMs phones. Surely the AFP is all over that kind of thing.

    by Diogenes on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:18 pm

  12. I don’t think NOTW phonehacking allowed them to listen in on convos. I think they could only access messages.

    Diog/Gussie, no one and nothing is safe. Everything is hackarable. The best policy is to STFU

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:19 pm

  13. finns

    solly

    u cant hack the 6.5 stars generals network

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:21 pm

  14. Danny Lewis -

    I think what happened is:

    Yup, that accords with what I know of the situation.

    I’m just getting twitchy about any statements that look like they’re allowing the falsehoods to go unchallenged. Apologies if I’ve been a bit harsh.

    I’m so sick of the fabrication going on. It has to stop – discussion and reportage has to be based on reality, in context. Free floating distortions unanchored in reality are being used to make false cases on a daily basis.

    How can we have a real national discussion about politics or policy in this environment?

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:22 pm

  15. Didn’t the Federal Libs second a failed NSW Opposition leader called Fahey as Finance Minister?

    Didn’t hear crap like this going on about that from the MSM or Labor at the time.

    by Fulvio Sammut on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:22 pm

  16. btw

    sam d the sec of nsw labor

    (the peeps who will actually nominate the senator, not JG)

    spoke to bob C

    at no stage was FA mentioned

    from there the hounds started running

    as i said earlier

    carr wants to be Ambassador to the USA

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:24 pm

  17. Mod Lib

    Fair enough.

    One thing I think that is hugely important is whether people give you the benefit of the doubt. I’m sure you know people who could breeze through vivas because they say the right phrases and look like they know their stuff.

    Gillard doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Ever.

    Whether that is her fault or the media is debatable. I think it’s a mixture.

    by Diogenes on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:24 pm

  18. u cant hack the 6.5 stars generals network

    Gussie, dont need to. All your 6.5Gs are already under the payroll of Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Inc, Solly Compadre.

    That’s why i said appoint Colonels.

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:25 pm

  19. Her deception

    You never backed up that there was any deception.

    The story that was “completely untrue” would only be true (and Julia Gillard “lying”) if there actually was a mutiny/rebellion.

    What evidence do you have that there was a mutiny/rebellion?

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:25 pm

  20. Gillard doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Ever.

    Diog, keep trying. you are doing well.

    by The Finnigans on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:25 pm

  21. Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Thursday, March 1, 2012 at 9:22 pm | Permalink
    Didn’t the Federal Libs second a failed NSW Opposition leader called Fahey as Finance Minister?

    Didn’t hear crap like this going on about that from the MSM or Labor at the time.

    The story is not former pollies going to Canberra (MP Fremantle anyone?).

    The story is ALP leaking just days after the “All is healed in the ALP” meme…
    The story is Gillard trying to brush the story off as “completely untrue” and then admitting the next day that she had indeed talked to Carr during her reshuffle deliberations and Carr (according to reports) confirming he was offered FM

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:26 pm

  22. finns

    ;)

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:27 pm

  23. Yes! Thank goodness we have a fearless and independent public broadcaster that will report the facts in an unbiased and objective manner … oh, wait …

    the ABC needs constant reminding that a higher standard is expected of them. It is too easy to descend to the same “unsourced” comments, or worse, repeating other publications unattributed comments. Lazy, and just not good enough.

    by sprocket_ on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:28 pm

  24. It’s nice to see you all again!
    I for one was very happy at all the events of last week, now Tony Abbott has a much better chance of winning the next election after Dullard got rid of Krudd once and for all. And now Dullard couldn’t even hold her authority for one day as she bungled her party’s attempt to exhume Bob Carr into what passes for their Senate lineup!

    Anyway, I see things just slithering on for the time being, at least until after the May Budget. Dullard may well be toast before the end of the year but whoever replaces her will have no chance in winning next year.

    by Nostradamus on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:29 pm

  25. No, Mod Lib, that isn’t the story, that’s the fabrication.

    What I said is the reality.

    by Fulvio Sammut on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:30 pm

  26. What evidence do you have that there was a mutiny/rebellion?

    The leak.

    Is anyone getting this? Are you seriously all saying you cannot see that someone in the ALP has leaked this (or as Gus says, someone is hacking phone lines)

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:31 pm

  27. The story is Gillard trying to brush the story off as “completely untrue” and then admitting the next day that she had indeed talked to Carr during her reshuffle

    ModLib, shown to be making stuff up, comes out with it again.

    Julia Gillard said that a story with headlines about “Mutiny Kills PM’s Bob Carr Plan” and “Rebellion by Ministers Undermines Gillard’s Newfound Authority” was “completely untrue”.

    Julia Gillard has never denied talking to Bob Carr. She has not “lied” about not talking to Bob Carr.

    “Admitting” to talking to Bob Carr doesn’t show anything.

    The only possible lie would be if there was a mutiny/rebellion – and no one has provided any evidence that there was a “mutiny” or “rebellion”.

    Sorry folks, don’t mean to harp on this, but I’m not going to meekly let anyone, let alone ModLib, keep putting this shit out there uncontested.

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  28. And here’s another item I’d like you people to keep in mind: this has just been one of the coldest and wettest summers in eastern Australia in living memory. So much for climate change, Nopenhagen and Kyoto. I don’t want my hard-earned wages taken away to subsidize a new tax while ruining my children’s job prospects at the same time. Repeal the carbon tax schnell!

    by Nostradamus on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:32 pm

  29. mod

    u sure like to verbal

    u aint a copper by any chance?

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:33 pm

  30. Come the morrow, the story will be the new Cabinet.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:33 pm

  31. So how did the media get the story Jackol?

    by Mod Lib on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:34 pm

  32. I’ll take this Morgan even tho we all know what Morgan is. It’s a pity that the Greens went down 3.5 of which 1 pt went to the Libs but only .5 to Labor. Still after all the ruckus last week I expected even Morgan to be worse.

    Cuppa – Smithe’s post mentioned by you on the last thread @4045 is really good (thanks Smithe). It should be tweeted to JBishop who was positively abhorent at a doorstop today when she called the PM a pathological liar. If I was JG I’d be suing her.

    by BH on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:34 pm

  33. I think Gillard’s problem is that, despite her natural shyness, she actually has very high self-esteem, which is why the gibes don’t affect her the same way they do others.

    People who actually DO have glass jaws: Abbott and most of his front bench and especially certain players in the media, just don’t get this.

    Why do you think they are getting angry and frustrated that their constant niggling has not resulted in the PM cracking up, bursting into tears, having a hissy fit or whatever?

    PROJECTION. They make assumptions about the way THEY would reacy under the same circumstances and decide that means there is something wrong with HER. They should, instead, be looking in the mirror and seeing what is wrong with THEM.

    by Danny Lewis on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:35 pm

  34. The leak.

    Oh, the leak from random person. All we have is that someone said there was disagreement and debate over getting Bob Carr into the FA portfolio.

    What a Manichean universe we live in – either Julia Gillard can just throw her power around without a peep from anyone she works with – or else someone raises concerns and then we’re thrown into “mutiny” and “rebellion”.

    You want to say that was a “mutiny”? You want to say that that is proof that Julia Gillard was deprived of exercising her authority by the factions?

    It’s nothing of the sort. It’s complete crap.

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  35. Is anyone getting this? Are you seriously all saying you cannot see that someone in the ALP has leaked this (or as Gus says, someone is hacking phone lines)

    Hacking of phones cannot be ruled out and is highly likely given Newscorp is involved. They are guilty until proven otherwise afterall that is the same standard they apply to everyone else.

    by the spectator on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  36. Does FA have a 2IC? Lots of the other depts have a parl sec or junior minister etc .

    I can’t recall FA having one. The FA minister is obviously away a lot so who runs the joint when he isn’t there.

    Is it the Trade Minister?

    I’m just thinking Carr could have been a parl sec in FA. That would have been a good outcome IMHO.

    by Diogenes on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  37. Is anyone getting this? Are you seriously all saying you cannot see that someone in the ALP has leaked this (or as Gus says, someone is hacking phone lines)

    As I’ve said repeatedly today, if there is a leak then it is more likely to be a stray Ruddista who didn’t get the memo that MV Rudd has sailed.

    Now, onto more substantive matters….

    by confessions on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  38. John Fahey came in with Howard in 1996, went straight to the front bench and retired though ill health because he smoked like whatever the collective word is for chimneys

    by shellbell on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:36 pm

  39. Looks like Michael Fullilove gets the Senate spot according to the ever reliable VexNews:

    Very appropriate name for the battle ahead.

    “Senior sources say Michael Fullilove endorsed by NSW Right & will be selected to fill the Senate vacancy tomorrow at ALP Nat Exec”

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:37 pm

  40. Diogenes

    64 is a bit on the mature side for taking a middling position especially if you have been a big fish for 10 years

    by shellbell on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  41. Diogs,

    Richard Marles was Parly Sec to Rudd and looked after the Pacific Region.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  42. So how did the media get the story Jackol?

    Shifting the ground again ModLib. I haven’t been debating whether there was a leak. I have been disputing your assertion that Julia Gillard obviously lied or was deceptive.

    The leak is of (very) minor interest. There are many possible explanations, many of them involving casual discussion between various people and members of the press or other intermediaries that really don’t aspire to the level of “leak”. None of it is very important. Sure, I’d prefer there weren’t “leaks”, but this kind of “leak” is not a big deal one way or the other.

    You can assert that the “leak” implies a devastating loss of authority for Julia Gillard; I’ll accept that as your opinion.

    What I won’t accept is this crap that Julia Gillard lied or deceived people about this situation.

    by Jackol on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:39 pm

  43. GG

    interesting choice

    more leigh and dreyfus, than combet and shorten

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  44. Mod Lib,

    The fact that there were leaks is not Gillard’s fault.

    See how things pan out tomorrow.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:40 pm

  45. Oops, missed out the main thrust of my argument, which was that it would actually have been better if she HAD as fragile a glass jaw as the others, because she would have been out in the media on a daily basis defending herself, rather than just letting it pass like water off a duck’s back.

    I’ve gotta say though, I am rather disappointed that her colleagues have not been supporting her in this way. The very second someone tried on the “PM is a liar” meme it should have been slapped right down, pointing to her reputation – going back years – as straight shooter and a decent and honest person in her dealings with people.

    Because neither the PM nor her colleagues ever contested this contention, it has been allowed to gather momentum to the point where it is now taken as a given that she is a liar, when nothing is further from the truth.

    by Danny Lewis on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:41 pm

  46. shellbell

    He hasn’t done anything in politics for 9 years or so.

    It’s a bit much to go straight into a highly sensitive portfolio like FA straight off the bat.

    by Diogenes on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:41 pm

  47. gus,

    i wonder if Gillard needs to deny whether he’s been offerrred the FA job.

    It might be handy if she sees the neccesity to answer criticisms from those who would never vote for her and the fragile egos of the Oz.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:42 pm

  48. shel

    he lost a ung from memory

    a rather flaccid polly

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:43 pm

  49. GG

    I tapped her call to michael

    just waiting for the bidding war to begin

    :evil:

    by gusface on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:44 pm

  50. I saw Dullard on ABC regarding the leak during question time. She looked very nervous indeed, her face had hiding something written all over it. Not a good luck representing this great nation.

    by Nostradamus on Mar 1, 2012 at 9:45 pm

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