Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

2750 Responses

Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 |
  1. Misleading Parliament anyone?

    Misleading Pyne is not the same as misleading parliament. For one thing, it is far too easy!

    by Oscar on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:44 pm

  2. Guess whose article has just been removed from The Age website?

    Normally they would just issue a correction, but in this case that would have meant replacing every single word.

    by autocrat on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:45 pm

  3. confessions

    Dastyari reportedly met with Carr earlier on in the week.

    Did he actually meet with him or was it by phone? Irrelevant anyhow!

    No preselection being called is the real point. The PM obviously went over the NSW Branch and negotiated with Carr herself.

    That is the real story.

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:46 pm

  4. LOL hi all , I was hoping last night that Jooles would still give Carr the gig but didn’t think she would.

    The PM told me all not to believe what they read in he papers and it appears she was right.

    Carr made a statement that he hadn’t been formally offered the job was also correct, all the rest was supposition by the media and Abbott and co made fools of themselves all week.

    by Paul_J on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:47 pm

  5. It’s obvious over the last week that Craig Emerson is considered very highly by JG.

    Too young to remember what once was?

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:47 pm

  6. MSM just got comprehensively pwned by the PM!

    Suck it up Grattan, Shanahan et al. You’ve just been exposed for the lazy, talentless hacks you truly are.

    What a brilliant strategy.

    Hilarious!

    by DRinMelb on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:48 pm

  7. From the Benson article linked earlier:

    In her handling of this, Gillard has demonstrated a complete lack of authority - a stark contradiction to her claims of a new assertiveness following Monday's defeat of Rudd in the leadership ballot.

    Hilarious! Shows how determined media types are to keep up that meme, even when it doesn’t fit facts.

    by rishane on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:49 pm

  8. http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/02/surprise-gillard-brings-bob-carr-to-canberra/

    Friday, 2 March 2012
    Surprise! Gillard brings Bob Carr to Canberra
    by Bernard Keane

    Julia Gillard has shocked Canberra and the press gallery with the surprise appointment of former NSW premier Bob Carr to the Senate and as foreign minister, after days of controversy in major newspapers over claims that she was rolled by senior ministers over the appointment.

    by Leroy on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:50 pm

  9. http://www.katelundy.com.au/2012/03/02/statement-on-appointment-as-minister/

    Statement on appointment as Minister

    March 2, 2012

    I thank the Prime Minister for my appointment to the position of Minister for Sport, Minister for Multicultural Affairs, and Minister Assisting for Industry and Innovation.

    by Leroy on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:51 pm

  10. blackburnpseph
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    There is nothing to say that the offer to Carr was made, withdrawn and then remade again.

    No there isn’t, but when you have to create complex story to try and fit your narrative to the facts, then you have to suspect the narrative.

    The PM played the opposition and the press for suckers, basically it couldn’t of happened to a nicer bunch.

    by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:51 pm

  11. Hilarious! Shows how determined media types are to keep up that meme, even when it doesn’t fit facts.

    It makes you wonder how much else the media peddle is also pure bullsh*t. In the case of the FA Carr fracas it’s only because the “story” was subsequently contradicted by facts that it exposed the media’s incompetence. But most stories don’t get this kind of smackdown.

    by kakuru on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:52 pm

  12. This will disarm the Opposition and the MSM. The Prime Minister of Australia has shown she is not only a very decent person, but a consumate poker player. That press conference was one of the most stunning exhibitions of the exercise of raw political power I’ve seen in a long time. A case study Machievelli would have been proud of.

    From today we will see a very different treatment of the Prime Minister by the MSM. She has outmanouvred, outflanked and outsmarted them all. And it will be marked down as the first day of Tony Abbot’s last days as LotO.

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:52 pm

  13. Ta, poroti #646

    I’Ve filed that red-face-making effort too!

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:52 pm

  14. McLelland has called a presser for 3.30.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:52 pm

  15. No there isn’t, but when you have to create complex story to try and fit your narrative to the facts, then you have to suspect the narrative.

    Exactly. It’s called parsimony. When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.

    by kakuru on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:53 pm

  16. Kieran Gilbert ‏ @Kieran_Gilbert
    Rudd says Carr is an excellent choice as Australian Foreign Minister #auspol #reshuffle

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm

  17. What’s McLelland’s seat margin?

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm

  18. When you step back and look at all that has happened in the past two weeks it’s not all that difficult to come to the conclusion that the sequence was more planned than isolated events. The events I am talking about are the resignation of Abib and the appointment of Carr in his place including the FM appointment. If that were the case then the general thrust of the original Australian article, while sensationally delivered to embarrass the PM, was accurate. Having said that I agree it is just an opinion and not something that could be proved.

    I just find that explanation more ethically acceptable than one where the PM of Australia deliberately sets out to mislead and confuse a major media organization.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  19. [It makes you wonder how much else the media peddle is also pure bullsh*t.}

    If it's NewsLtd? About the same as UK's NewsIntel. All but a few bloggers: JTI, Mega, Mumble (sometimes).

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:55 pm

  20. If there were discussions between Bob Carr and Sam Dastyiari on Monday the NSW branch has been definitely in the loop on the whole issue. The preselection now is obviously a done deal – how can it not be.

    Of course they were involved, they are the ones who will up up Carr’s name to the NSW Government for ratification.

    There is nothing to say that the offer to Carr was made, withdrawn and then remade again.

    Correct, this was all a figment of the media’s poisoned imagination in which they had to make it look like they were right all along.

    Articles during the week that Defence were unhappy about getting a new minister should Stephen Smith go to FA may have made an impact, reports that Joel Fitzgibbon may go back to Defence may also have helped lock in Smith at Defence.

    This is all just shit made up by people who were digging for anything that they could pin on the PM. The “reports” had absolutely no effect any of the decisions, only someone absolutely desperate not to look foolish would even think of proposing them as reality.

    The offer to Carr may have had to be made to get Gillard out of a hole largely of her own making. Despite all of the crowing of the Gillardistas here it has not been a terribly edifying spectacle this week.

    Crap. You don’t try to have people parachuted into parliament, and into one of the 4 or 5 top ministries to boot, to try and save face. The conduct of the entire week has been masterly in terms of the amount of information given out, the timing of it and the fact that both the opposition and the MSM have been utterly pwned. If you want edification, you shuold observe what’s been done and said, when and by who, and file it under “Masterclass in manipulating a press hell-bent on destroying you”.

    by autocrat on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:56 pm

  21. OzPol Tragic

    Too young to remember what once was?

    No. Just a comment as he has been prominent in being mentioned as seeing to things this week and obviously still trusted.

    by CTar1 on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:57 pm

  22. Rossmore

    What’s McLelland’s seat margin?

    6.8%

    The demographics are changing there though.

    by MTBW on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm

  23. Rossmore
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 1:33 pm | Permalink
    Bemused wont be happy with todays events …. be nice to him PBers…

    It’s not in my DNA to be nice to misogynists, Rossmore.

    Bemused has trashed the PM at every turn, then hides behind the cloak of “I’m loyal to the party, therefore will be loyal to the leader”

    But when he trashed Bligh the other night, he could no longer hide his contempt for women.

    Bemused has sniggered whenever anyone has suggested Gillard is a brilliant strategist.
    Constantly berates her for shooting herself in the foot.
    Refuses to acknowledge the appalling treatment of the PM by the media.

    So, no, Rossmore, bemused needs to acknowledge his own appalling treatment of JG before I will give him any leeway.

    by kezza2 on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm

  24. http://www.visdem.com/electorate/profile/Barton

    ivision of Barton (NSW)
    Inner Metropolitan Electorate
    FEDERAL ELECTION 2010
    TWO PARTY PREFERRED

    56.9% Robert McCLELLAND
    43.1% John La MELA
    Swing -8.08%

    TURNOUT 91.6%

    INFORMAL VOTES 9.8%

    FIRST PREFERENCES

    LABOR 48.5% LIBERAL 40.7% GREENS 10.9%

    by Leroy on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm

  25. Hmm Labor holds Barton by 6.8%.

    Bob Mclelland is holding a news conference at 3.30 pm

    by Paul_J on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm

  26. About to go to an appointment.

    If the Oppo does a presser on Carr’s appointment, I hope some PBers will post the best bits (inc the non-verbals as well as what’s said/ snarled/ spat/ ranted/ etc)

    by OzPol Tragic on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:59 pm

  27. Gee you have to be quick around here :)

    by Paul_J on Mar 2, 2012 at 1:59 pm

  28. blackburnpseph,

    There is nothing to say that the offer to Carr was made, withdrawn and then remade again.

    Articles during the week that Defence were unhappy about getting a new minister should Stephen Smith go to FA may have made an impact, reports that Joel Fitzgibbon may go back to Defence may also have helped lock in Smith at Defence. The offer to Carr may have had to be made to get Gillard out of a hole largely of her own making. Despite all of the crowing of the Gillardistas here it has not been a terribly edifying spectacle this week.

    I’ve just worked out that “blackburnpseph” is actually Michelle Grattan!

    The style is identical and unmistakable. Sprung! ;-)

    by scorpio on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:01 pm

  29. Bob Carr’s wife was present for the press conference.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:02 pm

  30. There is nothing to say that the offer to Carr was made, withdrawn and then remade again.

    True. Plus there’s nothing to say the offer was made to Clive Palmer, then withdrawn, then made to Carr, then withdrawn, then withdrawn again, the offered twice more to make up for that extraneous withdraw. Then offered last Sunday.

    But it probably was just as the PM said.

    by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:03 pm

  31. DavidWH
    Posted Friday, March 2, 2012 at 1:55 pm | Permalink
    ...

    I just find that explanation more ethically acceptable than one where the PM of Australia deliberately sets out to mislead and confuse a major media organization.

    Given that the major media organizations make up it’s own facts, arguing that the facts were not given would be a very shallow argument. (the PM has pointed out to the press detailing the facts is a wast of time as you will make up your own).

    As to misleading and confusing a media organization, they could deal with that by writing about facts instead of opinion and nonsense, it would then be a lot harder to lure thin into a cull de sac.

    by fredn on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:03 pm

  32. OzPol Tragic
    .
    But wait there is more. Greg Sheridan was also part of the synchronised diving team performing the full Grattan in the piked position.

    Carr drive-by a loss for Gillard by: Greg Sheridan,

    JULIA Gillard's failure to get former NSW premier Bob Carr as her foreign minister is a tragedy for her government and for Australia.
    Bizarrely, Gillard immediately caved in. In a single stroke she undermined her own authority, demonstrated weakness in decision making, created a trap for her own credibility when she subsequently denied the inevitable leaks and gratuitously embarrassed Carr in the bargain.
    But the way the episode played out has once more undermined Gillard's credibility, competence and authority

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:04 pm

  33. After Julie Bishop’s carry on the past couple of days, I bet she feels like a bit of a dill now.

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:05 pm

  34. I thank the Prime Minister for my appointment to the position of Minister for Sport, Minister for Multicultural Affairs, and Minister Assisting for Industry and Innovation.

    Congratulations to Kate. I’ve been watching her in the Senate for a long time. She’s finally been rewarded.

    by triton on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:05 pm

  35. If there’s a by-election don’t assume an ALP loss in the seat. Gillard wins today – and it will resonate.

    by al palster on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:05 pm

  36. I just find that explanation more ethically acceptable than one where the PM of Australia deliberately sets out to mislead and confuse a major media organization.

    Oh the poor dumdums in the gallery getting confused thanks to that mean PM.

    There were three media organisations that screwed themselves (and each other) whilst the PM walked away wiping her her hands and whistling a happy tune.

    There are far too many reporters in politics compared to the relatively small amount of fact based news items available. If these under worked dunces make fools of themselves by predicting things that they can’t substantiate by misleading and confusing each other then I have no sympathy for them at all.

    by Tom Hawkins on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:06 pm

  37. DavidWH

    When you step back and look at all that has happened in the past two weeks

    … Poor inept JG has banished Kev-07 and, then enforced her leadership by having her way on who will be be appointed to positions in Government.

    And given the press a giant wack while she was at it.

    Meanwhile legislation was progressing in Parliament.

    by CTar1 on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:06 pm

  38. Bob Carr gets the answer to this question:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCss0kZXeyE

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:08 pm

  39. After Julie Bishop’s carry on the past couple of days, I bet she feels like a bit of a dill now.

    Inward contemplation being surprised by reality.

    by autocrat on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:08 pm

  40. I can hardly wait for TP’s take on today’s disaster for Gillard!

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:09 pm

  41. Phil Coorey on Carr as Foreign Minister

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-ends-her-week-as-she-began–with-a-win-20120302-1u7f3.html

    by madcyril on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:11 pm

  42. JULIA Gillard's failure to get former NSW premier Bob Carr as her foreign minister is a tragedy for her government and for Australia.

    Almost as good as Shanhan’s “the Foreign Minister who never was.”

    by confessions on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:11 pm

  43. Kezza2 I suspect even Bemused will have to admit this was a good day for the Prime Minister, but I agree there is a misogynist streak in some of his postings. I called him to task on it the other night with the reports about Rudd’s diatribe about the PM in Adelaide. I dont know Bemused’s age but I suspect he may be from the generation that thought a woman’s place was in the home etc.

    by Rossmore on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:12 pm

  44. fess

    After Julie Bishop’s carry on the past couple of days, I bet she feels like a bit of a dill now.

    Exactly what do you mean by “now”? :evil: :lol:

    by Dan Gulberry on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:13 pm

  45. Greensborough Growler

    I can hardly wait for TP’s take on today’s disaster for Gillard!

    How about. After her disgraceful back flip on her decision to pick Carr she has been forced to do an even more disgracejul backflip on her backflip.

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:13 pm

  46. SAMANTHA HAWLEY: PM understands Bob Carr was offered and expressed his interested in the Foreign Affairs portfolio but the offer was later withdrawn after senior cabinet ministers objected.

    by Son of foro on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:15 pm

  47. Great headline on Malcolm Farr piece.

    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/gillard-blows-a-carrs-berry-at-her-critics/

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:15 pm

  48. I wouldn’t think Barton would be a seat the government would want to see a by-election in although Carr would give the seat a good chance for Labor to retain. Anyway we need to wait for the press conference.

    by DavidWH on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:16 pm

  49. Son of foro,

    Gillard has already said only she could offer the position and she only offered the job to him once on Thursday afternoon.

    Seems like Hawley is not being particularly accurate with her wordings and on who made them.

    by Greensborough Growler on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:18 pm

  50. The PM shown welcoming the press to today’s press conference
    http://tiny.cc/12onw

    by poroti on Mar 2, 2012 at 2:19 pm

« | »