Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Puff
Xxx
I mean.
by crikey whitey on Mar 7, 2012 at 3:31 am
I should add, in the interests of balance, that I was confident that the doctor and no doubt the adoptive parents intended the best for the child.
Right or otherwise, I was happy that my child was going to an excellent home and truly loving parents.
As I said, many were kind, and I recollect only kindness and well meaning in the Doctor’s face, demeanor, attitude.
And this is not coloured by the years. Nor was I wrong in my perception at that time.
Young, yes, perceptive, yes.
I expected then and always have that my child would have loving parents.
That they would do their best and all for her.
And I hope they have. Expect it of them. As I say.
by crikey whitey on Mar 7, 2012 at 4:14 am
Her Master Voice is being heard at The Sydney Mining Herald – Rinehart meets Fairfax management on home turf –
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rinehart-meets-fairfax-management-on-home-turf-20120306-1uigx.html#ixzz1oLNGcCrZ #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 6:24 am
Interesting that Brazil is feeling the pinch of the GFC1 more than any of the BRIIC countries. China, India & Indonesia grew between 6 to 9% for 2011.
Asia is definitely the place to be.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e23a2b34-678e-11e1-b4a1-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/companies_us/feed//product#axzz1oMmx2jLk
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 6:35 am
European markets fell heavily last nigh up to 3% over the looming recession:
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2111086/Recession-threat-looms-eurozone-data-shows-0-3-GDP-slip-reinforced-falling-activity-board.html#ixzz1oMprAVPW
History will show the single currency EURO will be the single worst economic decision made by the EU whereas the floating of AUD will be the best single economic decision made by PJK.
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 6:42 am
Mr Limbaugh being Mr Limbaugh
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/Vox-News/2012/0306/Rush-Limbaugh-Do-Democrats-want-uproar-to-continue
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 6:45 am
Oh dear, Datsun? The stench of a decaying BOF Govt has started already.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/pressure-on-minister-to-quit-over-the-star-casino-scandal/story-e6frfkvr-1226291219840#ixzz1oMs6M44D
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 6:49 am
Nessie watch. lately no sighting of Nessie masquerading as #Leadershits or #Ruddstoration. Nice, very nice #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 6:52 am
Is it just me, or has the Graveyard Shift gotten a whole lot nicer to read since the spill?
Thank you to crikey whitey and lizzie for their stories. They’re the sort of things that remind me how lucky I am to have my beautiful, healthy daughter.
by AJ Canberra on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:02 am
Abridged Shanahan this morning:
Well, I’m sure Wayne will take heart from all that. Dennis sounds worried.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/putting-the-slipper-in-a-desperate-strategy/story-e6frg75f-1226291136111
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:07 am
Some time ago there was a discussion on Crikey about cognitive scientist George Lakoff and his ideas about the real source of political division in the USA. He talked about parental styles of Domineering Father and Supportive Mother. Put simply, Conservatives and the Right want a Domineering Father figure and the Left want a Supportive Mother style of leader. Lakoff traces political conflict in the US back to these fundamental expectations. It sounds daft but makes sense given the last 18 months in Oz politics. What does this mean for Gillard and Abbott?
For Conservatives and their voters, leadership is viewed as a male job because Father is the domineering action man. Gillard is unacceptable because she is governing in a “female”, “lefty” consensus way by working through competing pressures. Many people do not see this as leadership, especially not Conservatives or the Right. Their hatred of her is because she won’t fulfill the “proper” role of Domineering Parent Leadership, by making rules, setting boundaries and sticking to them. Thatcher’s key motto was “the lady is not for turning” and Howard was accepted because he was perceived as steadfast and stubborn. Gillard “changes” too much and therefore is not “leading” us. To extend the analogy, the voters are toddlers, who don’t know where to sit or when to eat, so they throw a tantrum.
The Tories and public will grudgingly accept the female Gillard as long as she acts like a “Parent” who dominates the process. I think Gillard has twigged to this, and there is a recent change in her style to dominate press conferences. This does not call for shouting, aggression, abuse, anger or swagger. I am talking about strong firm Parental control of process. Making rules, setting boundaries and enforcing them. The usual stuff you see in books on Toddler Taming. Gillard has started to do this backed up by Swan etc. Even Speaker Slipper is doing his bit.
“Dominating the process” also has the enormous advantage of not being perceived as spin. Words and phrases are spin, but attitude is not. For some reason it is perceived as reality. I hope she can keep this up because it will work for her, and maybe reduce the vitriol and hate directed against her. It really does not have anything to do with Gillard being a female; it is related to the style of her presentation. When Conservatives moan about her being childless and barren, they are dog-whistling that she can’t be a strong Parent-Leader. I think she understands that now and I hope she can keep this going.
The most fascinating point though, is Tony Abbott’s inability to do this. He gets away with playing the father role only because he is an obviously athletic man but he doesn’t do the Domineering Parent role well. Superficially he ticks all the boxes, but he does not set rules or boundaries and stick by them. He plays dress ups and complains a lot. He tries to please everyone. The toddlers are confused and unconvinced. May they remain so.
by Phil Vee on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:13 am
BB, a cloud, we need a cloud of Shananana’s diatribe.
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:14 am
John Menadue sticking it to Scoot “Xenophobia” Morrison.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:19 am
Morning bludgers
Phil vee
Great post. I am liking your analysis.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:19 am
Scoot was “unavailable for comment” but issued a statement that Mr Menadue was politically motivated.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:29 am
So we can expect more articles from the IPA? Goody.
by Son of foro on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:30 am
Amen to that…bring it on here too
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/mar/06/rupert-murdoch-harriet-harman
by dave on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:34 am
Ducky
What did Menadue say about Scoot?
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:35 am
On RN. That Scoot’s comments on asylum seekers showed that he was a xenophobe. I think they referred to a speech he made last night. Should be a ref to it on the net before long.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:37 am
Is it just me or does this paragraph from the BOF/Sauros story start the alarm bell ringing? A news limited trash rag “revealing” text messages from high profile people. Lib embarrassment aside, how, given both parties have no desire or benefit in going to the Tele did the Tele get a copy of a text message? I smell something fishy and its not the tin of canned tuna (with chilli and lemon
) I plan to have for lunch.
by Smaug on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:38 am
Ducky
Yesterday i was speaking to some people, and the question of refugees was brought up. They were not enbarrassed to admit they dont want muslims and Africans setlling in this country.
The usual discussion went “i am not racist but…….”
I was quite disheartened. These people are intelligent etc, but it does appear their attitude aligns with many others in the community. The Libs know this, and they see it is a vote winner.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:41 am
Messy, messy , messy:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8430954
While the adults playing Mum & Dad, the poor kid suffers.
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:43 am
Phil Vee
Spot on.
by Malcolm Young on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:46 am
Crikey
I too was very moved by your story. I did not post yesterday because you were not around and was asleep by the time you arrived last night.
I like Puff’s suggestion.
Put an add out with birthdates – and Hospital. Chances are that someone will see. Gee even send a tweet – does that ABC program “can we help” still run.
Your post triggered a lot of moving stories. Met a half brother myself 20 odd years ago and we remain in touch. He gets on really well with all of us and is a lovely person.
by daretotread on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:50 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/ofarrell-must-think-bigger-says-business-20120306-1uieh.html#ixzz1oN8BJvJc
- i doubt very much Fatty is capable. He is by nature a lazy Premier -
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:52 am
Victoria
Sadly I think you are right. To address the immigration issue labor needs to drill down to the core of the fears that dominate the debate. Hard and possibly not nice but needs to be done.
by daretotread on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:00 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
More cracks? I wonder if Abbott’s heroes Clive, Gina and Andrew approve. Also note the choice of photo for Abbott – he’s at his reptilian best.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/business-sounds-alarm-over-abbotts-parental-leave-plan-20120306-1uifh.html
More on the super rich.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/blunt-instrument/rich-and-white—-and-oppressed-20120307-1uixk.html
Lenore Taylor calls Manboy Hunt out on a lie.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hunts-scare-tactics-misleading-20120306-1uifj.html
Ron Tandberg on our Living Treasure.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/03/06/3098815/Tandberg4-620×0.jpg
David Rowe suggests Swan is up against it with the might of the mighty rich.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
by BK on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:03 am
This is an interesting stat
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:05 am
BK
Great links. Much appreciated. Image of Abbott is quite unsettling!!
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:11 am
vic
Yes – unsettling indeed!
by BK on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:12 am
I concur with this observation, Abbott is the glue holding the Libs and Nats together. He is doing everything to appease the Nats at the preent time. How long will this last?
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:16 am
present
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:17 am
The problem for Shanahan and his type is that should the coalition win the 2013 election it will only be at best a silver medal performance. The gold medal goes to Labor’s 2010 victory. That’s the one that enabled the passing and bedding down of legislation which changed the direction this country was heading.
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:17 am
GDP Number out today – Another BISON in the making?
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:19 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/business-sounds-alarm-over-abbotts-parental-leave-plan-20120306-1uifh.html#ixzz1oNFa3KYh
- i raised this issue few weeks ago and included it in my BISONs:
Read More:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/abbotts-campaign-against-labor-totters-towards-war-on-reform/story-e6frgd0x-1226287767755
It’s about time too
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:25 am
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Close
@latikambourke Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore was in OZ in the 70s & said why you guys want to make shoes with your high education std (then)
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:29 am
The big difference between Bob Carr & Kevin Rudd is Carr really wants to be the FM. While Rudd really wanted to be PM & used FM #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:37 am
The Finns
Rudd who?
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:39 am
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:40 am
Vic, Mr. Lu Kewen has gone into my Nessie watch
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:41 am
this should work
http://www.andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:43 am
Finns
“Sydney Mining Herald”
Gold!!!!!!
by Gaffhook on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:53 am
victoria @ 1220
Unfortunately this is the case. Given most election results are close to 50/50 this one issue boosted by scaremongering by the schockjocks and tabloids is more than enough to get the Liberals close (2010) or over the line (2001).
by CO on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:55 am
victoria:
Great post by Elder.
I said last week that the leadership ballot would be the circuit breaker the govt needed, and it seems that’s how it’s panning out.
It’s clear nobody (press gallery, opposition) believed Gillard when she said repeatedly she had the strong support of Caucus, because it interferred with their narrative of hopeless. The decisive vote in Gillard’s favour blew a hole in that.
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:57 am
CO
I guess that is why Labor pursued the Malaysian swap deal.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:57 am
confessions
Agreed. The appointment of Carr has also taken the focus totally off Rudd.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:58 am
Morrison accused of generating xenophobia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-07/former-immigration-head-launches-attack-on-opposition/3873008
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:59 am
Shanahan likes to depict the government as being “desperate”. The word conjures up images of ministers running down corridors, barging into offices, piling desks and chairs up against doors, boarded up windows, panic, females crying spontaneously, lots of shouting, fight-or-flight adrenalin rushes and so on. Contemptuous, is Dennis.
Dennis hardly ever says a word about Abbott, good or bad.
But today’s ShannaRant was nothing on Paul Kelly’s verbal flatulance last week. The Kelly Cloud went like this:
Kelly goes more for the elder statesman looking down upon the kiddies in the sandpit. Paul depicts the government as not being serious, mucking around, playing at it like Monty Python, in a continual rolling debacle that’s doing damage to the nation. It’s quite a patronizing attifude.
Once again, hardly a word about Abbott.
Their attitude is one of almost total negativism. Nothing at all that the government does by way of policy ever gets a decent analysis. Occasionally they say something’s smart politically, as in “smartarsed”, but that’s about the sum of it.
I guess they excuse themselves by claiming they’re political journalists. Political journalists talk about the political process and perception, not solid policy.
Despite their not talking much about him, the looming gorilla in the corner is Abbott. His flaky, populist strategy is starting to wear thin through over-use. And via repitition, the government is finally getting the message across that he has few policies ready to go to an election. Uhlmann (of all people) the other day pinged Hockey on this, asking him perfectly reasonable questions about what exactly his policies were, if he’s so ready for an election tomorrow.
Hockey looked miffed and mumbled something about sacking public servants, which is hardly a substitute for policies on foreign affairs, communications, health, welfare, housing, disaster management, unemployment (unless you count sacking tens of thousands of living, breathing human beings a “policy on unemployment”), economic growth, inflation, interest rates, the arts, indigenous affairs, shipping, aviation, water management, education, tourism, taxation and so on. “No” is not a policy, and Uhlmann was kinda wondering when they’d flesh that one word out. Good on him (and good luck, Chris… you’ll need it).
Just saying all the things that should be low will be lower under the Coalition, and all the things that should be high will be higher doesn’t really cut it, when at the same time they are demanding an immediate election. The receding tide of public interest in Coalition negativism is exposing more and more mud flats that the Tories claim to be arable land.
Like a Harvey-Norman payment plan, the first year’s mortgage payments are on the Liberals. That’s when the loan sharks kick in for the kill. Hockey says he doesn’t believe Labor can rack up a surplus, but he’d better be wrong, for his sake, or else he’s got no chance of even starting to look like a suburban accountant, much less a Treasurer. The miserable Robb knows this only too well, too. That’s why he’s miserable, dummies.
The whole Coalition policy suite is a jerry-built ramshackle construction, made up of a few brain fart concepts tacked onto a crumbling foundation of Howardism. It’s as if they’ve done one of those instant makeover renovation on the house in preparation for a quick sale. Once again: reality TV has guided them. The public likes reality TV. Why don’t we turn a whole country into one of those Instant Makeover shows?
But the truth is you can’t really completely fix a home in 24 hours. A few rented pot plants and some of that nice crushed terra cotta gravel only cover things over until the weeds start pushing through again. You can only make it look like you’ve changed everything, and then only until the cheap paint, with the second coat splattered on before the first one is dry, starts bubbling and peeling. The Coalition’s hope is that the TV cameras will have left well before that time.
The Abbott PPL policy is a case in point. His idea is to bribe mothers on high salaries with a full pay-packet (apparently including superannuation contributions) for six months. It’s the kind of thing you use as a starting point, not a finalised policy. You throw it onto the table and say, “What about paying salaries in full? Why can’t we do that?”
Only then, when the embarrassment dies down, do the wiser policy heads tell you why you can’t do that.
You can’t do it because it’s poor policy. You’re paying for lifestyles. Sure as God made little brown chicken nuggets, next thing the pensioners will want to be paid whatever their final salary was when they retired. Those kinds of pension schemes, aka “The NSW Public Service Double-Dip”, got closed down because they were stupid, bankrupting states and nation states with their generosity. They had to cobble a Future Fund to pay for the Commonwealth version of the NSW rort.
You can’t do it because it’s expensive and we’re trying to save money.
You can’t do it because it’ll be rorted for sure, with employers and employees making cosy private deals about pay rises timed to pregnancies.
Abbott’s PPL scheme is the sort of thing that looks sort-of OK for about thirty seconds until you think it through. Of course, in Reality TV Land, 30 seconds is all it has to look good for. If the TV renovations are bad and poorly done, don’t stand the test of time, who’s going to complain?
The poor saps who have to live with Dulux Designer Red walls and a purple-tiled bathroom shoe-horned into their home by a piece of gell-haired, Nine Network (or worse, Ten Network) TV trash aren’t going to complain about a freebie, are they? The walls needed painting anyway, they just don’t really fancy the color, and they’ll never have to mow that little patch of lawn again, just rake the terra cotta gravel and pull out the weeds.
Likewise, the Mums who score the Lifestyle PPL scheme aren’t going to complain either. Someone else will be paying for it. Anyway, they’ve worked hard, shown their independence, now let’s get compensation for that (don’t laugh, it’s the argument the $150k-plusses used to justify keeping their health insurance rebates).
But a brain fart is still a brain fart. Abbott’s idea isn’t so much about caring for young mums on high salaries who’ll probably be dropping future Liberal babies anymore. It isn’t even about the absurdity of poor mum’s and dads paying to maintain the lifestyles of the richer and better. It isn’t about setting “$150,000 per annum” as the new benchmark for “deserving” (sounds so Howardesque, doesn’t it, so “2007″?). It’s about Abbott’s authority in the party. As well as saying “No” to all the wrong things, he’s said “Yes” to a few absolute clangers, too. The wise heads know it doesn’t, and can never add up. What the hell are they going to do about it when all Peta Credlin, and therefore Abbott, and therefore the back benchers, care about is Newspoll?
But Abbott’s been able to get away with it because the Shanahans and the Kellys (and the Grattans and the Hartchers, even the Cooreys lately) have abrogated their responsibilities to critique the Opposition’s policy circus. Coorey recently said that while ever Gillard was running a train wreck government (Coorey being self-appointed Trainspotter In Chief), he needed not to bother looking at the other side’s lame policy performance. Grattan has said this too, as have the others in one form or another. Why do they bother turning up to press conferences. They could write what they write, roll over and go back to sleep.
Which is why Labor has decided to do this themselves by starting fights, challenging some of the newly wrought “iron rules” of politics and showing them to be full of rust, only now starting to punch its way through the new paint.
The commentariat thought they had Gillard last week. Shanahan was so excited he wrote her off in the second sentence of his first article on Tuesday. Then, when she showed him to be wrong, completely, and said so (particularly cheeky of her), he vented his spleen with a dummy-spit on Sunday, and again today.
Kelly joined in with the list of words kindly reproduced above. Grattaan sighed that it was all Julia’s fault (everything is, according to Grattan). Coorey mumbled something about how he planned to comprehensively cover politics by only writing about one side of it. Even Media Watch, ostensibly having a dig at the above and their gotcha agenda, ran the line that Gillard had been beaten by the faceless men until Shanahan, scoring an own goal, spurred her on to winning through (something I don’t agree with, actually, but I would say that, wouldn’t I?).
None of them seemed to twig that reshuffling a cabinet is a process of consultation and deliberation, of negotiation, and that Gillard negotiated fine, just fine, to get the result she wanted. She’s not a dictator (as Abbott has been forced to depict himself). She’s a Prime Miinister, getting better by the day, in my opinion, now that she’s free of Rudd and his Miserable Little Vegemiters.
Who’s “desperate” now? Looks more and more like Mr. Shanahan to me. Today’s column was a cry from the heart (if he has one). He’s seen the writing on the wall and, to his obvious chagrin, it’s not his.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:01 am
The Hancocks have some history when it comes to newspapers.From Wikipedia
by poroti on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:04 am
Another important step for the NBN
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Telstra-finalises-NBN-agreement-pd20120307-S5TEK?OpenDocument&src=hp1
by dave on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:15 am