Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
re BK @ Dawn Patrollers Abbott’s maternal leave for 6 months plan
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/business-sounds-alarm-over-abbotts-parental-leave-plan-20120306-1uifh.html
My staunch Liberal-voting mate said that this policy will put back women’s equality in the workplace because employers pay for their employees on maternity leave
The result will be that women who do not have children
1. will not be able to get permanent positions
2. will not get high paid positions
As it is in Victoria traditionally female roles like teaching, nursing have been casualised even though the women must have university degrees and post graduate qualifications to hold those positions.
Needless to say police have had a 19% pay rise and no one will consider casualising firemen
by billie on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:17 am
victoria:
It’s hard to see any journos taking calls from Rudd anymore. I wonder if those 4 he leaked to feel like they were played for fools?
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:18 am
Thanks for andrew elder link.
)
Most of his assessments of “rival cabinets” are spot on (in other words I agree with them
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:21 am
http://www.danielandrews.com.au/media/news/scrap-the-plan-to-scrap-ratios/
by Leroy on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:22 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/business-sounds-alarm-over-abbotts-parental-leave-plan-20120306-1uifh.html
by Leroy on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:24 am
confessions
Frankly all the oress gallery should be feeling like fools. Every last one of them. They have been pathetic in every way.
BB outlines it perfectly at post 1246. They cannot be taken seriously
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:26 am
Heard Ted Baillieu with Faine yesterday and was not favourably impressed by Ted’s attitude to callers supporting nurses. Marshall Baillieu then cemented my disdain in his attitude to nurses.
They are the “old money” in Oz terms.
Now add the miners with their “new money”.
None of them worth respect.
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:29 am
Poroti:”The Hancocks have some history when it comes to newspapers.From Wikipedia”
About 1970 in Canberra a free weekly newspaper started up. I don’t remember its name but somehow can recall the editor was Maxwell Newton.
Week after week the paper hurled vitriol at Tom the Cheap Grocer which had recently opened in Canberra. At the time I assumed the editor had received poor customer service at the checkout or some such.
Now the story seems clearer, courtesy of Wikepedia which has an article on Sir Thomas Wardle, owner of Tom the Cheap Grocer. He seems to have been popular in WA.
Perhaps however he did not get on with Lang Hancock, hence the newspaper attacks on Tom the Cheap in Canberra. Maybe a PB contributor in WA knows the story.
by citizen on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:35 am
Capital Circle blog, links to articles, front pages, and politicians diaries
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/coal/story-fn59nqgy-1226291470067
by Leroy on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:38 am
Victoria, have you considered that ‘the 4′ might have been using Rudd as a stick to beat the government? I find it strange you would wish to portray these co-conspirators as innocent parties. They knew quite well he did not have the numbers but were more than willing to go along with the de-stabilisation ride.
by joe2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:39 am
READ NOW! This article, normally behind the paywall for the first minths, has been unblocked by The Monthly until 4pm today.
http://www.themonthly.com.au/fraser-hawke-keating-and-howard-retirement-love-thy-leader-george-megalogenis-4672
more in the article
by Leroy on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:41 am
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/telstra-finalises-11b-nbn-deal-20120307-1uj4j.html
by Leroy on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:44 am
joe2
The comment you refer to was made by confessions. I doubt very much they were played for fools. They were happy for the narrative of Ruddstoration to beat the govt with. Hence my comment, that All the journos have been pathetic throughout the duration. They were given a huge slap down last Friday. Doubt it is going to stop them on their mission though. The govt just needs to keep punching along
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:46 am
Can someone remind me – exactly how is it that a LNP government will halt the NBN roll out?
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:46 am
Of course they weren’t innocent, which isn’t what I said in any case. They used the Rudd leaks and claims of far higher support than he really did have to feed their narrative of the PM as unpopular, incompetent, and her govt as hopeless.
As the post linked to above points out, when the facts were revealed neither Rudd nor the gang of 4 journos had anywhere to hide. Which is why it’s implausible to claim they knew full well what Rudd’s actual support in Caucus was.
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:47 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-07/former-immigration-head-launches-attack-on-opposition/3873008
I wish that Menadue had spoken earlier about the failures of Nauru. Altho even now, Morrison imediately attacks him for being “political” and running his own agenda.
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:48 am
Sorry, victoria. Shouldn’t try and do two things at once. Looks like we are actually in furious agreement.
by joe2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:50 am
Tues 11th March, parly will resume and sit for seven days. Thereafter will be recess until Budget on May 8.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:51 am
Joe2
Yes we are!!
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:52 am
Leroy
Thanks for link to Mega’s essay
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:54 am
Morning All
I think one of the biggest factors that will help Labor federally at the next election is losing government in Victoria and NSW, as well as potentially Queensland (fingers crossed Labor holds on) – the incoming state governments are proving to be duds. Do nothing, or do very little, state governments when people were looking for change will make people hesitant to make change for change sakes federally.
Great to see the Telstra deal done – the roll out is really going to ramp up from here – BRING IT ON
Victoria – I went to an asylum seeker protest thingy in Newcastle some years back and a priest that was there ran a line I have used many times since. When someone says “I’m not a racist but…” ask them to start again with “I am a racist and…” – makes them think a bit
by womble on Mar 7, 2012 at 9:59 am
Yes I hear that too, but being a safe Nats seat represented by PruneFace doesn’t make much difference. But I get ashamed of comments like towel heads etc
by mari on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:01 am
womble
Yesterday i said to these people that if the refugees were blond and blue eyed and dressed in normal attire, their opinion would differ. Therefore it would stand to reason that their attitude was racist. They tried very hard to defend their position, and the more they said, sadly exposed the racism for what it was.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:10 am
But shows how reptilian he is, so true to life, hope other people also also gets unsettled by it.
Just waiting to see what media can come up with to damn the ALP as Newspoll will be this week? Or have they “shot the last bullet” ? Unfortunately don’t think so in their mindsets.
by mari on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:13 am
mari
One of the people I spoke to, came up to me later on saying wtte, I Hope my comments did not upset you, but I do feel strongly about this.
I responded to her that her racism was her problem not mine
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:13 am
http://www.afr.com/p/national/hockey_spine_stiffener_for_coalition_kXXB7n00tlWR90R3MbyM8I
more in the article
by Leroy on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:19 am
Anyone seen this?
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:20 am
victoria @ 1273
While I agree it is her problem the real issue is that the Liberals can get significant numbers to vote against their own economic self interest by whipping up fear, hate and hysteria.
by CO on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:21 am
[lizzie
Posted Wednesday, March 7, 2012 at 9:48 am | Permalink
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-07/former-immigration-head-launches-attack-on-opposition/3873008
I wish that Menadue had spoken earlier about the failures of Nauru. Altho even now, Morrison imediately attacks him for being “political” and running his own agenda.
Lizzie I have been out for a walk so maybe Scott M has now come out, earlier it was a spokesperson for Scott M saying above, poor little fellow was not commenting.
personally then
Victoria 1273, know what you mean they are quite proud of their views, I can’t believe what they say, but although I have given up arguing, I know I am regarded as a “bleeding heart”
by mari on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:22 am
CO
As I mentioned earlier, the coalition know this is a vote winner, and that is why they are pursuing it.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:29 am
victoria
What an excellent reply. I must remember it. When it comes to “I’m not racist..” I still laugh when I think of Sam Kekovich declaring “I’m no racist. In fact some of my best friends should be sent back to where they came from”
by poroti on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:32 am
Thanks for a thought-provoking article, Phil Vee #1210′ all the more so since I’ve been trying to analyse Anna Bligh’s leadership, especially her crisis leadership, and whether, given Q is a state where natural disasters are usually an annual (at least) event, that will be the critical voter decision-maker when the come to mark ballot papers. If so, then election-campaign bad weather has strengthened her campaign.
I’m not sure that US political analysis is as relevant to Australia as the LNP and MSM like to think (and our billionaires try to force on government) given:
(a) the extent to which religion dominates US Right Wing politics, but has never – despite the NCC/DLP & rise of USA Evangelical-Pentacostal sects – dominated Australian politics in the same way
(b) different patterns of underlying early immigration, the influence of which moulded political & social policies in quite different ways: USA religious (& often ethnic) based group immigration; Australia, individual forced or chosen immigration, with very few religious/ ethnic-based groups (eg Kulturkampf German Lutheran in SA & SEQ)
(c) very different capitalist & labour market policies: USA’s plethora of wealthy and powerful C19 plutocrats, and decentralisation of union politics; Australia’s chronic labour shortages, early development of a very strong, well-organised labour movement, early successes, (eg 8 Hour Day in NSW building industry), creation of nation-wide unions (Seamen’s U & AWU) by the mid1880s and, in 1891, the Union’s political party, the ALP, by striking Barcaldine AWU shearers. (One of the distinguishing tools of early Oz organisation of industry-specific and a generic nation-wide union & ALP was mastery of telegraph technology: the first shearing shed “out’ in 1891 – Jondaryan, west of Toowoomba – telegraphed Barcaldine, starting 1891′s telegraph ‘tree’ covering the nation’s sheds with SU as well as AWU & ALP news.)
Australia was the Great Romantic Experiment, Land of the Fair Go; its early white settlement led by a man chosen because his appreciation of Rousseau meant he’d enact “noble savage”, convict redemption policies & egalitarianism, inc land grants to Ticket-of-leave holders, education and religious freedom: which would continue until Macquarie was sacked for following his orders & enacting them over the objections of Rum Corps remnants and fellow travellers who lobbied for the Commission of Inquiry (Bigge Report) into Macquarie’s “mishandling” of the colony.
Nor does the USA have a formative politico-literary tradition to equal the Sydney Bulletin’s – famously read to rags (a wonderful bit of imagery) from Sydney to Perth, esp its Red Page (ed AG Stephens) literary tradition; nor does Australia share the USA’s formative traditions of Revolution, the Wild West, Slavery and Civil War, and the literature they inspired. Probably the most formative “Supportive Mother” in USA tradition is Little Women’s “Marmee”, Mrs March. That series’ nearest Australian equivalents, Ethel Turner’s Seven Little Australians and Mary Grant Bruce’s Billabong series, set on big country properties, very much in the Oz’s Bush Ballards, Books & Her beauty and her terror/ The wide brown land for me tradition, even those set during WW I – belong to a quite different national mythology.
My concept of Australian Women, based – as national “narratives” are, on history and mythology – is of the strong woman alone: alone, with the children & farm, and only her firearms for protection; often a vast distance from the nearest neighbours; facing childbirth, a child’s death, fires, floods, hiring “hands” etc when the men have gone (a’drovin’, with the wool clip to the cities & ports, to war, off with another woman). Bush women were famously tough, resilient, self-sufficient, no-nonsense, the opposite of hysterical … And very flat-voiced. Interestingly at Grantham’s 1st anniversary celebrations, there was virtually no tonal differences between locals’ & PM Gillard’s voice.
In Australia, I’d say men & women with ego problems and underlying insecurities want parental styles of Domineering Father and Supportive Mother, so they tend to be attracted to the fundamentalist religious/political Hard Right and particularly susceptible to simplistic religions and political ideologies which offer follow-my-rules solutions to problems. For most of the Federation movement & beyond periods, Oz was at war (with men OS) or living with the aftermath of war and former defence force members, trained to command/ obey, trying to recover from what war-service did to them. Between 1972 and 2002, we were, except for some peace-keeping work, a nation at peace, and far less tolerant of Domineering Fathers.
We are not the USA. We have our own, quite different history and historical events (our most famous commemoration pays respect to a defeat); quite different political, workplace and cultural traditions; quite different mythologies, literature and Film/TV. The USA lauds and rewards (inc with low taxation) wealth and celebrity on an Imperial scale; Aussies love “The Lucky Country” (usually ignoring it’s irony), “The Land of the Fair Go” and its egalitarianism (though sporting figures are more equal than the rest).
Let’s celebrate our own ideas of what our leaders should be, and ensure they’re not gender-specific. We in no way lack very fine political heroes, from Capt Arthur Phillip onwards. We have no need of USA GOP & Tea Party ideology, we have far better public education and health systems – the type they try their darndist to rip off their fellow Americans. We don’t need our government decision-making run by religion of any sort. And we sure don’t need USA concepts of what our leaders should be, especially gender-specific concepts of what they should be.
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:33 am
On the Menadue story and his criticism of Morrison, this is interesting background….
http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/50189
by joe2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:36 am
PM & BOF agreed for Clean Energy Corp HQ in Sydney. At a joint presser, BOF basically told Abbott to fuck-off. As Abbott will abolish CEC
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:38 am
Purry (and others) from last night:
Yes, Bob Brown did look a little tired. Cranky, even. But Toolman still couldn’t get the better of him. I thought Brown was persuasive, and not all cocky, like Abbott.
As far as comparing Emma Alberici’s treatment of Swan, I would have to say I was very impressed. Yes, I’m a Labor supporter, yet it was great to see an interviewer (Toolman note) give both Labor and Liberal politicians a fair, but hard hearing. She gave both (comparing her interview with Pyne on Friday night) time to make time to make their point – and hang themselves.
I thought Swan, too (like Brown last night) seemed ‘off’. Perhaps this is a reflection of Alberici and her research team. She really is backgrounded well. I didn’t think Swan did terrribly, but seemed a little uncertain, when the debate is really very simple. Establish a simple line of attack and stick to it.
by Super on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:43 am
As one who welll remembers as a child learning to say “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.” it is sad to see the guy responsible has died .
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10790335
by poroti on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:43 am
1283: I meant PUFFY not Purry!
by Super on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:44 am
Super
Puffy is not often purry.
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:46 am
Tone presser in Adelaide shortly. You there, Puff, BK ….?
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:50 am
There you go. I thought Swan was great. The style of questioning seemed to fire him up rather than daunt him. Pyney, on the hand, seemed shocked that any media rep would call into question anything from coalition world. Bolt was certainly very upset at that kind of boat rocking.
by joe2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:52 am
Crikey Whitey:
I can’t find the original post where you told your story, but it is fairly obvious that it is/was horrendous. You are very brave to post it here. We are all the better for you having done so, even if it makes us feel uncomfortable.
FWIW, by ex was adopted (out) and it was not ’til her forties that she found her natural mother (her father had passed on, and no real details existed about him). I saw firsthand this experience had upon her (self-esteem especially), and it is very sad. What society did back then was horrible. But, some of the values our current society will be judged harshly in time.
by Super on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:54 am
Apparently Abbott’s presser will be in new BER hall.
Wake up journos!
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:55 am
For a bonus – Pyne!
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:56 am
Hope Tone has a helmet on, for when it falls down.
by joe2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:58 am
Joe: that letter is gold.
Morrison comprehensively pwned.
Gotta love it
by Danny Lewis on Mar 7, 2012 at 10:58 am
They already had, but only until someone told them it wasn’t a BEER hall.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 7, 2012 at 11:02 am
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Is that a sling shot I see in the right hand of the little guy confronting the mining goliaths?
Though I do prefer Michelangelo’s version’s beee-utiful bod, I’ll settle for the Surfing-mad bloke from Nambour’s.
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 7, 2012 at 11:02 am
Will we see Abbott launch a BER Hall Putsch ?
by poroti on Mar 7, 2012 at 11:03 am
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 11:04 am
Sad to learn of Robert Sherman’s death.
A recent email told how Gandhi walked great distances barefooted, making his feet very calloused. He was a spiritual figure, frail and suffering from bad breath because of his spartan diet. Hence: SUPER-CALLOUSED FRAGILE MYSTIC, HEXED BY HALITOSIS.
This would not have helped Mr Sherman.
by Toorak Toff on Mar 7, 2012 at 11:08 am