Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
When does the QLD ALP formally launch its election campaign?
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Tom,
Prime Minister Julia Gillard to attend ALP campaign launch on Sunday, @TheQldPremier confirms
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Bemused@1394
So much to respond to there, ‘a dead issue’ got a smirk this end. I won’t say what’s on the tip of my tongue.
But there is no need to use my response as an opportunity to put the boot into others.
Just saying..
by forrest on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:52 pm
bemused
What in dog’s name are you on about?? The only one still smarting Rudd/Gillard is you. Get over it. For me it is Rudd who?
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:53 pm
If these candidates would shut up the networks might be able to get back to some results analysis. This is the third too-long speech in a row.
by triton on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:54 pm
forrest @ 1401
So you don’t see it as ‘a dead issue’?
It could re-emerge of course, but while the PM performs well and the ALP polling improves, it won’t.
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:55 pm
The Finnigans.
To be fair though it is immensely hard trying to decide between Freakshow 1 Freakshow 2 Freakshow 3 and an some old guy .
by poroti on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:55 pm
This has absolutely nothing to do with Ruddstoration, or indeed with Mr Rudd himself, except very peripherally.
(BTW, IMHO, there is not a skerrick of evidence to show that Mr Rudd and his spear carriers are doing anything at all untoward. He is sticking to his word.)
This is about war graves and the possible meanings ascribed to the graves themselves and the activities surrounding the graves. We have such graves in dozens of countries around the world. We believe, somehow, that they should, or can, have no meaning other than the ones we ascribe to them ourselves. They can have no history but ‘our’ history and that they have no context but ‘our’ context. They can have no meaning but ‘our’ meaning.
My post was triggered by the recent news about the desecration of Australian war graves.
The official response was, IMHO, literally, mindless because it was gut. Restoration pro ante and retribution were the calls. But just because the official reaction was mindless, it does not follow that we on Bludger should follow.
This issue has everything to do with the way in which some Australians live in a conceptual bubble beyond which there is no possible alternative meaning and significance. Events that happen inside the conceptual bubble are regarded as having no possible negative impact beyond the bubble. Nothing real happened or happens outside the conceptual bubble.
The sacredotal nature of the views on war graves is so powerful that individuals who question them have to be regarded as ‘mad’. Straight jackets, blue pills, red pills etc, etc are all prescribed. The issues theselves cannot be discussed. The possible existence of the issues has to be denied.
.
by Boerwar on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:55 pm
victoria @ 1402
Oh come on victoria, I read the earlier posts you and confessions exchanged. Do I need to quote them for you?
I am not the one who raised the issue.
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Thanks GG
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Boerwar
As evidenced by bemused’s posts, he sees everything through the filter of The cult of Rudd.
Bemused should point out the posts where I have been carrying on about Rudd. The best thing about this week, is that we no longer hear or see that person. Alleluia!!!!
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:59 pm
PM presser from Wagga “shortly”. KFC Boy must be busy.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:59 pm
bemused
Show me the posts and their context. Remind me
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 1:59 pm
I think it’s nice that Abbott gets to write his own questions for his press conferences.
by Son of foro on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Oh Bemused, sometimes I worry, ‘a dead issue’, desecration of war graves, and you saying with a straight face ‘time to move on folks’ just struck me as a little bit funny.
I’ve moved on, Julia Gillard is the leader of the country, she might not be your cup of tea but put a couple of sugars in and you’ll be right.
by forrest on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:01 pm
With the govt starting to set the agenda and the opposition unravelling, in the past it has been at this time that Rudd would undermine the PM and the govt.
Fortunately now, he is no longer in a position to claim any kind of Caucus support (or at least no respectful journo would print it), and isn’t in Cabinet to leak anything. Plus, now that he’s been fingered for whiteanting, his only option is to use his supporters in Caucus to do his dirty work for him.
I will be pleasantly surprised if he does nothing, and continues to allow the govt to ascend. Time will tell however.
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Agree victoria,, rudd who
by my say on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Boerwar @ 1406
I have occasionally wondered just how long war graves will be maintained?
I say this as graves in a cemetery do not last forever unless financial arrangements are put in place to allow this.
There is usually a set ‘life’ for a grave after which the bones are removed to an ossuary and the grave re-used. This often comes as a surprise to relatives.
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Malcolm Farr sounding less and less like a press gallery hack, and more and more like a professional journalist these days.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/classy-targets-cop-it-hardest-in-phony-class-wars/
WTF is going on?!
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Poroti, i thought it was dumb, dumber and even more dumb plus yes, some old guy
by The Finnigans on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:05 pm
my say:
Nice to see you again. It feels like ages since you last commented here. I hope you are well.
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:06 pm
fess,
Certainly a touch of touche for Malcolm , today.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:06 pm
my say
How is everything on the family front?
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:06 pm
So with Newspoll in the field from tomorrow, what is the OO going to come up with this time?
The negative stories I can see at the moment are about Abbott: PPL and boat people.
Should we run a book at what it might be??
by Andrew on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Confessions,
Mal Farr seems to have come to terms with what a minority government means for getting things done more than most of the senior Canberra journos.
I think he just calls it as he sees it, always through appropriately cynical eyes.
by Burgey on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:13 pm
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Confessions: Rudd has been as quiet as a mouse since the leadership ballot. I’d assume he’s keeping out of the limelight, and ministering to his constituents.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:16 pm
victoria @ 1411
Your request answered.
confessions @ 1141
confessions @ 1157
confessions @ 1242
victoria @ 1244
confessions @ 1250
victoria @ 1261
confessions @ 1263
Now, do you discern a kind of a pattern of behaviour there?
Occasionally someone else buys into it, but it is largely the confessions/victoria echo chamber.
Everyone else seems to have moved on, except maybe TP & TLM.
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:17 pm
GG, Burgey:
Farr has impressed me of late. No evidence of groupthink in his recent articles and Sky News commentary.
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Super Tuesday: Ohio too close to call.
Romney won the seats in the North East
Santorum won Tennesee & Oklahoma
Gingrich won Georgia.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Stephen Smith is on.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Grog’s Drum article today is worth a read.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3872646.html
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:19 pm
In regards to the Labor leadership: It’s settled, for now, but if Labor’s still in a bad poll position in say 12 months time, the whole thing will be revisited.
I’m not quite as convinced by Julia Gillard as 99% of the rest of you here, and it’s still my firm conviction that Kevin Rudd has more prospect of beating Tony Abbott, but hey, that’s just my view.
Anyway, we’ll wait and see what happens over the rest of this year.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:20 pm
bemused
As you will notice my posts relate to the discussions on the blog this morning with respect to the journos and the msm. They had nothing to do with Rudd himself
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:20 pm
victoria @ 1432
Sophistry.
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Abbott’s PPL is bad policy. But its also bad politics. How can you argue that the carbon tax is a great big new tax but his PPL tax isnt?
How can you argue that 500 businesses will pass on the costs of the carbon tax, but not 300 with the parental leave tax?
How can you argue that you would be worse off with a carbon tax plus compensation than a PPL tax without compensation?
by Andrew on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:23 pm
meant 3000 businesses
by Andrew on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:23 pm
bemused
You are a sore loser. Get over it.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Kirkham report won’t be published: too many personal details
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Andrew
Abbott is arguing all those things, and his party are cracking the shits
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Evan spare us the smiley emoticon. I predict you will try to jump on the bandwagon if PM Gillard/ Labor’s stocks rise (as you did previously), but your efforts here show you are not worthy of calling yourself a Labor man
by Andrew on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:25 pm
bemused
By my recall, we were celebrating a “quiet time” without the constant hassling by journos over hints of rebellion. You are being far too sensitive about your hero and are actually raising the temperture of the debate yourself.
by lizzie on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:26 pm
lizzie
Bingo!
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:27 pm
yes victoria, and still the MSM let Abbott get away with it. He is such a protected species. I dont why he clings to the PPL scheme: probably its because its the only substantial policy idea he has had. Its even more stupid now a parental leave scheme is already in place and paid for without slugging companies extra
Wheres the ad campaign from the big corporations?
by Andrew on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:28 pm
victoria:
bemused only comes here to pick fights with other commenters. He succeeds when you respond to his sniping.
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:28 pm
confessions
I know. I felt like calling him out on his childish trantrums.
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Telstra has finalized the deal with NBN/Goverment:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/government/telstra-finalises-11b-nbn-deal/story-fn4htb9o-1226291772664
by zoidlord on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Andrew
Time will tell how it all plays out with Abbott. It seems that Hockey is trying to change policy direction. I am not sure even they know what they stand for anymore
by victoria on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:31 pm
victoria @ 1436
Pardon? What have I lost?
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Andrew:
Abbott’s PPL is regressive in that it is skewed towards the higher income spectrum.
Also, what’s to stop big businesses which already offer maternity/parental leave schemes to their employers dropping them because they know a) they are already paying the PPL tax, and b) the govt will pick up the cost for their staff?
by confessions on Mar 7, 2012 at 2:31 pm