Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
lizzie
Forsooth, why were you glad you ate your chicken already? The Central Ranges Merlot is wreaking intellectual havoc on me. I can no longer understand anything.
by Boerwar on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:34 pm
He mentions different numbers to different colleagues.
by ruawake on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Thanks OzPollTragic at 1280
Your considered response to my message (#1210) made me feel better for having read it. I agree we are not the USA, for all the reasons you listed. Thatcher was thrown into the argument to try and broaden it from the particular American Lakoff thesis.
I really wanted to include the Christopher Hitchens interview with Thatcher. She showed him the naughty stick she used to discipline her Ministers and he asked how she used it. So she showed him by making him kneel and then striking him. The point of his story was that he actually enjoyed it and could see how it worked for her. This is a peculiar English story that does not apply to Australia, but the general idea is relevant. (hmmmm Gillard waving the naughty stick at Andrew Bolt …… I’d like to see that)
Regardless of gender, a leader is expected to dominate in the same way as a parent is supposed to, and for the same reasons. Firstly, because we have few other examples to show us what to expect. Secondly, because of the deeply felt vulnerability and weakness of the child. In Australia this vulnerability is keenly felt into adulthood because of the unique features of our development. Clinging to the coast, inland expansion limited by lack of water, Imperial kinship ties reinforcing subservience to a master, plus the God thing. Religion has not dominated politics here as it still does in the USA, but it was a vital part of domestic life here until the post WW2 period. My point is that religion gives another paradigm of dominating parent if only for those born before 1950.
Your point that we have changed dramatically in the period since the 1970s is correct. Also we are far less tolerant of dominating fathers now. Our progress has been towards a more individual expression of self in matters physical, emotional, sexual and even occupational, without the empty ritualized limiting structures of the past. Of course this has generated a backlash of people pining for what has been lost or never experienced and it finds expression in the incoherent rage against politicians and the idea they are failing to provide us with “certainty”.
To repeat my original point, we want our leader to dominate the process of government by setting rules and enforcing them. If Gillard can do this she will be successful.
This was always at the heart of Australian egalitarianism, arising as it did out of a military beginning and an imperial project. Ours is no rugged American male-only individualism, protecting home and hearth, guarding weak vulnerable womenfolk. As you rightly point out our womenfolk are/were more resilient and self- sufficient. Our captivity narratives do not have the cultural impact of those in America. Our literature is partly (as you say) female; telling stoic, stubborn survival stories. The male part is of men struggling against failed leadership and needing help to survive. Our collective ethic of the fair go demands a dominating leader to implement it. We almost don’t care what the leader does as long as they are transparent and we don’t feel cheated.
by Phil Vee on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:35 pm
why is that ? its the final
by Joe6pack on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:35 pm
I loved Joe’s face on ABC news tonight when he made a very obvious point.
Swan will find it hard to deliver a surplus in May because he has run such large deficits in the past, not because GDP is running at a mere 2.4%pa
by Mr Squiggle on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Kinda proves Robert Manne’s point, doesn’t it? And Swan’s (although he left Rupey out of his “billionaires” list).
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:37 pm
poroti
Mr Bolt’s understanding of climate statistics is not his strong point. I sometimes wonder how he went at mental arithmatic in grade 3. He may even have been a fellow sufferer.
Perhaps he should stick to bastardising easier targets as per his legal problems with ‘free speech’.
by Boerwar on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:37 pm
As predicted, the msm and the Noalition are going Stephen Smith. Much more important than the issues in the reports.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:38 pm
I agree with Sir Puffalot.
by ShowsOn on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:38 pm
J6P
Unless it’s a sell out games are not telecast to the city in which the game is held.
by BK on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Mr Uhlman is quizzing Mr Smith as we write.
by Boerwar on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:39 pm
There is a local black out that is only lifted if the game is sold out or close to selling out.
by ShowsOn on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Reports? What reports?
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:39 pm
I’m still waiting for someone to explain what was so good about my posts in 2007.
by ShowsOn on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Phil Vee
Another thoughtful piece.
Thank you.
by BK on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Lots of people love Ancient History. Your Modern History just isn’t nearly as interesting.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:42 pm
really? I thought they gave rule away ages ago.
by Joe6pack on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:42 pm
lizzie @1779,
You are exactly right.
A budget surplus is not compulsory every single year just as a deficit is not compulsory every single year. It all depends on the economic circumstances.
The Fiscal response by the government during the GFC and budget deficits were the right call in those economic circumstances.
Billions of dollars is now flowing into investment in Australia, consumption expenditure is strong, the economy is going well. Now is the time for the government to pull out and let the private sector take over.
A surplus is the right call for the current and developing state of the economy. The pull back in government expenditure is making a significant contribution to the low inflation environment in which we now find ourselves.
The unemployment rate at approx 5.1 % is a good measure of the strength of the economy. Even if it grows to 5.5 % it is still very low and still a sign of a strong economy.
Of course if the situation goes pear shape and circumstances change then by all means change direction.
But at the moment and based on what the Reserve Bank and Treasury are saying the economy is on track for good growth. Both of them seem confident and I am sure they have the most up to date analysis of the economy.
The government has not pulled this surplus pledge out of its bum of that I am sure. It is the right call for the current circumstances.
Future years, who knows ?
Anyway, just my non professional opinion.
Cheers.
by Doyley on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:43 pm
though a sad commentary of the state of 50 over odc. if a final is not a sell out
by Joe6pack on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:44 pm
I believe “perhaps” is not required given the person in question
by the spectator on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Isn’t it inTER-blog shit-fights William?
Unless, of course, you view the world as just One Big Blog
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:45 pm
And you said you never used time at uni .
by Joe6pack on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Ok BW
Shorter version.
+ number of policies coalition have released. (hint PPL)
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Recommendations for ADFA (from what I saw):
. make beer more expensive in the messes
. serve low alcohol beer
. more women in senior positions
. breath tests.
I think they have to add something that might work. You can’t teach boys to kill and be gentlemen at the same time. It has to be under-the-thumb stuff.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Don’t think much of the pretend cricket that are ODCs. Like cricket, though.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Joe6Pack
I have a .com email account (i.e. without an au). When I first set it up, I was given a USA address – from my IT teacher. So, not being techno-savvy, I was curious to find out what my IP address said about me.
Sure enough, after plugging in the numbers – it was spot on. I really thought it was going to show my real address as somewhere in Utah.
However, with the 25km radius stuff, it actually gave an accurate reading of my town address in Victoria, Australia.
Perhaps, all you need to do is explain why yours does what it does. I mean, if you’re travelling, would it just pick up the nearest ISP?
by kezza2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:52 pm
You are quite correct, BB.
by William Bowe on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:52 pm
william, why was my post deleted ?
by Mick Collins on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Weren’t we about to have one of those yesterday until it got XPDed?
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Isn’t that the whole point of ADFA – any one graduating from there is supposed to be an officer and a gentleman.
by B.C. on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:56 pm
I welcome the Gina rename, mentioned earlier, of [The Sydney Mining Herald].
Just released, the Melbourne arm, of Fairfax, is to become [The Dark Age].
by joe2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Some truly shocking numbers from the US. Numbers I would not think possible.
http://www.offthechartsblog.org/under-2-dollars-a-day-in-america-part-1/
http://npc.umich.edu/publications/policy_briefs/brief28/policybrief28.pdf
by poroti on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:59 pm
given todays gdp figures showed anemic growth and the first quarter of 2012 which almost over does not appear to flash on face value given the job cuts announced etc it would appear that once again the RBA has spectacularly misread the state of the economy. interest rates in aust and the dollar are way to high. on a positive note they will start cutting from next month and that generally factors into more positive poll results for the incumbent.
by the spectator on Mar 7, 2012 at 7:59 pm
B.C.,
I have a nephew who did and is.
by This little black duck on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:01 pm
I don’t know and don,t care . i am just going to ignore the shit .
BTW. get your pjs ready as i will sneak a photo of my vote and will even make sure I get a shot of my left hand which is missing I/2 index finger for proof.
I expect photo of you enjoying your dinner
by Joe6pack on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Mick, it never ceases to amaze me how many commenters are unembarrassed about asking such stupid questions.
by William Bowe on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:03 pm
kezza
I posted an article on AFV that explained the accuracy of locating devices using their ip number is about 50% to 80%.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:05 pm
so its OK for certain PB’ers to post unnecessary and unprovoked ad-hominen attacks then william ?
by Mick Collins on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:06 pm
William, if you are around, you made a comment some threads ago …I think… about the volatility of the polls. I’d be really interested in knowing a bit more about your thinking on this.
by Harry “Snapper” Organs on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:07 pm
jp6
guess you missed the post where I said I sleep in the nude!
Well, didn’t actually say that, but said I don’t possess a pair of jammies, anyway!
Still want the photo?
by kezza2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Puffy, that’s the reason there will never be $1 betting limits on the pokies!
Machines must be designed to meet the lifestyles of all people
Also you would need to adjust for inflation, or more precisely, increases in household disposable income
by Centre on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Mick, your question is too stupid to deserve a response.
by William Bowe on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:09 pm
So it is OK to attack other posters here with ad-hominens for no reason
by Mick Collins on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:10 pm
HSO, could you remind me what you’re referring to?
by William Bowe on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Yeah, saw that. Which was what prompted me to discover my own.
I was pretty shocked when it came up with my home town.
So, in my case, it was 100% accurate!
*stretched lips horizontally and vertical neck bones sticking out*
by kezza2 on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Mick, you are referring to a comment which I deleted, because the answer to your cretinous question is no.
by William Bowe on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Joe6pack @ 1747
Well said Joe . I agree 100%.
I thought Frank’s site would be a useful garbage receptacle but it even fails at that as some of his idiotic acolytes still come here to carry on.
by bemused on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Bemused, my injunction against inter-blog shit fights extends to comments like that one.
by William Bowe on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:15 pm
So is Shows On being a cretin when he calls other pb’ers, that havent even posted recently, “dickhead” for no reason ?
If so why wasn’t his post deleted ?
by Mick Collins on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Centre
Why would it need to be adjusted for inflation? With the $1 limit set in law, not regulations, eventually the wretched things would be worthless.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 7, 2012 at 8:16 pm