Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
thats what I have generally found when watching the ABC news
by the spectator on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm
I have friends on the Gold Coast lets say not exactly happy with what is happening with the Club, and they on the inside
by mari on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Ok, i on the basis that the Fiberal Costings singularity is now massing in the order of $150B i retract any previous statements that may have indicated that a few billion here or there was silly to get annoyed about.
Their costings for promises and commitments are probably getting beyond the realm of accountancy ( even Hogwarts style) and into the realm of seriously heavy Quantum Physics.
I know, they can draft in Steven Hawking to do their 2013 election costings!!
by imacca on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Not to even mention the approaches
by Dr John on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Ruawake: and their response to that, which I have heard a number of times now, is that they just don’t believe Treasury’s figures.
In short, Treasury are wrong and they are right.
End of story.
How the feck do you argue against such rampant, overbearing vanity?
by Danny Lewis on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Twiggy and Mr Swan, indirectly, do battle in the High Court starting tomorrow, over Fortescue’s challenge to lower court decisions rejecting Fortescue access to Rio Tinto rail lines in the Pilbara
by shellbell on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:39 pm
As you all know I am unstatistical but could it be that Mr Abbott could meet his promise by using the absolute amounts rather than percentages of GDP?
by Boerwar on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:43 pm
I find it humorous that all of the 3 obnoxious Australian mining multi-billionaires are caricatures with 2 extremely ugly and the other with a poncy lispy voice.
by Dr John on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:45 pm
shellbell – Clive also has a similar problem with QR doesn’t he? Great that QR builds a railway to his mine but deep difficulty when they actually plan a ‘loop’ line that will serve others as well …
by CTar1 on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Boerwar you would have to know what Hockey actually meant and that’s assuming he knows himself. It sounds like one of those pieces of political spin that are meaningless in the absence of policy detail.
by DavidWH on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Ruawake
Re Hockey. i poste a few weeks back that Hockey made a similar extraordinary claim on Q & A , something along the lines of “a guarantee revenue will be lower under the coalition”.
I mentioned something similar to what Koukoulas is now raising and thought Hockey would be clobbered on that statement.
I received a collecive shrug of the shoulders from posters that responded.
Hopefully someone in the ALP will take on Stephen’s comments and puts Shrek to the sword for his ridiculous statements.
by gough1 on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Difficult when the MSM won’t hold them to account for the outrageous costings or even report on the Hogwarts debacle. And even today the ABC has turned Swan’s reasonable points against the miners into:
“Swan ‘waging war’ on middle Australia”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-05/swan-waging-war-on-middle-class3a-opposition/3869734
by CO on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Hockey has just blown his black hole to $70B + $71B = $141B – bcs we’ll deliver lower taxes than under Labor http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/joe-hockey-just-made-his-black-hole.html #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Well few of the reptiles are going to challenge them.
Emma ? What are you doing in 2013?
by dave on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Gough it’s basic accounting that if you promise to have more in the bank and reduce your revenue then you have to reduce your spending by more than you reduce the revenue. Otherwise it’s just spin.
by DavidWH on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Can someone give me a bit of advice please?
I use Avast Antivirus which I am more than happy with but last week’s update also installed Google Chrome and at the same time deleted Windows XP “add ons”.
I am using Chrome now as my browser however every time I open PB now it takes me back to the page I was on when I bookmarked PB ie the last thread. How do I fix that does anyone know? Any advise appreciated!
by MTBW on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:56 pm
I am pretty confident of this prediction, Joe Hockey will never deliver a surplus budget.
by ruawake on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:57 pm
When does the *Big One* re Twiggy’s appeal come on Shellbell ?
Any feelings which way the ball might bounce ?
I’m talking about his ban on being a director thingy….
by dave on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:58 pm
I have bet very big that he will never even get the opportunity.
by Dr John on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm
“Swan ‘waging war’ on middle Australia”
How is attacking billionaires (soon to be trillionaires in Gina’s case) attacking middle Australia?
How far away from reality are the Coal ?
by lizzie on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm
ha ha love this from George:
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
@Thefinnigans Finns, we have the BISONS. They have the HOGS: Holes Of Gargantuan Size
yay, the Hoggies
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 6:59 pm
spur212
Thanks for link to Alan Jones with Bob Carr. Goodness me. jones thinks highly of Mr Carr
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:00 pm
DWH
Of course any Govt can balance a budget by cutting services. But remember the mess the Libs got themselves in trying to find $1.6 billion for a flood levy. How will they go with 100 times the problem?
by ruawake on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Now we’ll see how even-handed she is!
by lizzie on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:01 pm
victoria – Alan Jones likes authoritiarians.
by CTar1 on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Hi Folks
Been lurking for a while but not able to log on for some strange reason. I kept on being sent around in circles re my password. All is now Ok although it has been very irritating not to be able to comment now and then during this rather interesting time.
I just came on to ask for some advice as I’ve received an invitation from Bert van Manen (well, I imagine every letterbox in his electorate got one so I don’t feel really privileged) to take part in Forde’s BIGGEST SURVEY. I’m not shouting, that’s how it was headed.
It reads very much like a push poll to me as the some of the question are framed in such a manner, eg. “Do you think the Federal Government is right to continue to borrow more than $100 million each day, when Australia already has a record debt?”
I wasn’t aware that we did have a record debt but perhaps one of you may put me right on that.
The “carbon tax” is mentioned at least five times. I’ve written that I didn’t think it was a TAX. Other questions relate to Border protection (should we re-open Nauru? etc); Jobs (Do you think the Federal Government should abandon the carbon tax to protect local jobs?); the Environment (Do you think the Federal Government should support building new dams?).
It also seems to confuse State issues, eg. local roads, dams, with Federal issues, eg. the Economy (which one could argue is State influenced as well).
Anyway I think the whole thing is a piece of propaganda but I am filling it in, a little facetiously as I don’t think it deserves any better, being full of misleading questions IMHO.
There is one question, “If there was (sic) one local thing you could fix, what would it be?”
I’m hovering between “tidying up my garden” and “not having you as my Federal member”. Sadly, I think the demographic of this area is such that Labor in ’07 was a bit of a fluke, so I’m not too hopeful on the second response.
Just as a matter of interest, did anyone else get a similar document in their electorate?
Btw, Boerwar, I’m with you on Kitchener but I think most of the “top brass” were much the same. I love the parody in the fourth series of Blackadder, with General whoever.
by Allan Moyes on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:04 pm
vic,
Jones thinks it’s better to have someone from his vintage running the show. Also, the sudden appearance of NSW personality from within the Government is of interest to Jones audience. Carr did all the impressions of a safe, experienced set of hands very well.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Boerwar
If you’re asking at 256 if Hockey could deliver lower tax take in absolute dollar terms whilst still taking a greater percentage of GDP well it would be possible,
But first he’d have to drive the economy into a recession so long and deep that it reduced the size of the economy back to pre-2007 levels.
Seeing as how much they pine for the Howard years it could very well be his policy.
by ratsak on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Well, I do believe their plan is to get into government, wait a week ane then say, “OMG! The ecomanomy is waaaaay worse than we expected, forget everything we promised you, damn you Labor!” Or something along those lines. It’s standard procedure.
It’s one reason I’m glad that Black Hole info is out there.
by Aguirre on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:07 pm
They can say anything no matter how ridiculous confident that the MSM won’t call them out. However, what I find completely unacceptable is the ABC repeating this rubbish verbatim both on-line and heading the ABC 6pm radio news.
by CO on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Rua your point is a valid one however I think the black hole number has become as meaningless as the political rhetoric. As I said earlier the $70 billion already includes compensation measure the Coalition has said will be repealed along with the carbon policy. Now the additional black hole amount is based on assumptions about a piece of political spin when we have no idea what Hockey meant.
The Coalition’s main problem at present is that they have no comprehensive policy agenda that anyone can scrutinize.
by DavidWH on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:08 pm
David, that isn’t the Coalition’s problem, it’s their strategy.
by ratsak on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Allan Moyes
Hi. Hope all is well with you? With respect to the survey, I would send it back with the word Propaganda written across it
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:12 pm
DWH
Sorry you are incorrect, the Carbon Tax stuff reduces Joe’s hole by about $4 billion. The amounts are out there compiled by credible people.
by ruawake on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:12 pm
CO
Obviously the ABC news journos aren’t paid to think, just to speak noice.
by lizzie on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:13 pm
It’s in their DNA, The Coalition has been a big taxing Govt – Labor’s Tax take 21.75% of GDP Vs 25% under Liberals #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Thanks Victoria.
I’m well, and I’m very tempted to do just as you recommend. I thought I might add a few more words, not rude but certainly not complimentary.
by Allan Moyes on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Sorry, Victoria, I should have asked after your health as well.
by Allan Moyes on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Andrew Robb’s just cast doubt on the introduction of Abbott’s ill considered Parent Leave Scheme & with Hockey tax cut – they’re in shamble
by The Finnigans on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Allan Moyes
Pleased to hear all is well with you. All good on my end as well
by victoria on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm
finny
You should know the fibs are not in a shambles, don’t you read the papers?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Allan Moyes
Isn’t there any sort of penalty for push-polling?
by lizzie on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Was that on Radio Nat PM? I was listening but then had to turn off the radio. What was the gist of his comments?
by Tom Hawkins on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm
I am taking Mr Hockey’s words as if we are getting Coalition tax policy from the horse’s mouth. After all, he is the Shadow Treasurer.
by Boerwar on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:19 pm
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/03/morning-papers-times-daily-tax
by Leroy on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Aguirre
SHHHHH! You will let everyone in on the Liberal strategy.
by sprocket_ on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premiers-chief-spokesman-stood-down-over-star-leaks-20120305-1uc42.html#ixzz1oDrDX4NO
by Leroy on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm
I just listened to Robb. he said nothing coherent to my ears, except election is 18 months away.
by ruawake on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Finns
Robb is a real doubting thomas, isn’t he. Perhaps he doesn’t get all the memos
by lizzie on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm
I just watched Andrew Robb as well. Not worth commenting on that he’s at odds with Hockey, Abbott, etc.
by CTar1 on Mar 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm