Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows no change on last week, bar a one point drop in the Greens vote to 10 per cent: the Coalition is on 49 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on 32 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 56-44. Essential also found plenty of interesting questions to ask about the Labor leadership. Respondents were asked to evaluate the performance of various actors during the challenge, with Kevin Rudd coming out least badly (33 per cent good, 35 per cent poor), “Labor Party ministers” the worst (10 per cent and 52 per cent), the media also very poorly (14 per cent and 43 per cent), Julia Gillard not well at all (23 per cent and 49 per cent) and Tony Abbott hardly better even if it might be hard to recall what he did exactly (25 per cent and 40 per cent).
Sixty-two per cent of respondents said the leadership challenge was bad for the government and 47 per cent that it has made them less likely to vote Labor (64 per cent among Coalition supporters, obviously including many who wouldn’t vote Labor in a pink fit), against 13 per cent who said it was a good thing and another 13 per cent (or perhaps the same 13 per cent) who they were more likely to vote Labor. A question on Kevin Rudd’s future produces a miraculously even three-way split with 29 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and again challenge for the leadership, 28 per cent saying he should stay in parliament and not challenge for the leadership and 30 per cent saying he should resign from parliament.
Respondents were asked to indicate whether they supported the Australian system of leaders being elected by MPs (36 per cent), American-style presidential primaries (31 per cent) and British-style election by both MPs and party members (11 per cent). Fifty-six per cent believed MPs should be guided by public opinion in leadership contests against 30 per cent by who they believed was the best person. The poll also points to a slight increase in support for an early election since the end of January, up three to 44 per cent with support for a completed term down two to 46 per cent.
We have also had Newspoll publish results from last week’s polling on the most important political issues and the best party to handle them. Such figures are invariably very closely associated with voting intention, and since this was a 53-47 poll result, it finds Labor improving considerably since the question was last asked as part of the poll of October 7-9, which was a 57-43 result. Labor has recovered big leads on its traditional strong suits of health, education, industrial relations and climate change, and closed the gap on the economy, interest rates and national security. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Exactly, so people wanting to follow just the Queensland election commentary shouldn’t need to jump between multiple threads to find relevant comments.
by ltep on Mar 6, 2012 at 1:46 pm
What do you want, hyperlinks to the next comment on the subject?
by This little black duck on Mar 6, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Look who has his photo in retro black and white most prominently shown on the “front page” of the online SMH . rumble rumble.
“figures suggest they’d be much further ahead under Malcolm Turnbull, that Abbott may be holding the Coalition back somewhat.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/
by poroti on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:01 pm
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/reporters-without-orders/106/
Worth reading. Unlike most of the MSM articles.
by Leroy on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:10 pm
So why not let the comments happen where people prefer they happen? That means the Queensland thread will die now, rather than tomorrow after 100 posts or so. The last specialist thread on Queensland hit the dizzying height of 120 posts.
The product (state election threads) do not work. The smack of a line extension strategy that nobody wants. So why have two threads with the same discussion, when one talks about 100 different things except the one thing that the other talks about?
The stupid thing is not talking about the Queensland election here; it is talking about the Queensland election on a thread nobody looks at or responds to.
Are you suggesting that people come here just to look at the Queensland election thread? If so, it is obviously a failing strategy.
by JohD on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:13 pm
by confessions on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Don’t get this, only a text dialogue item type thingy. Jumping between threads on an android is a pain-in-the-proverbial.
by JohD on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Johd@854:
Couldn’t agree more.
The comments on the Qld election have been interesting to read here, but I would never have gone to the special thread to look at them just on the off chance.
by don on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Indeed, but you don’t get the option to view the regular web version? I do on my phone – but have until now resisted the temptation.
by ltep on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:22 pm
ajm
I wish I shared your optimism there.
Both major political parties do nothing to counter the prevailing myths and stereotypes of the unemployed, as exemplified by “dole bludgers”.
Neither of the major political parties is all that interested in the plight of marginalised groups such as the unemployed and single parents. The demonisation and scapegoating of “dole bludgers” is a vote puller with the swinging voters who determine the outcome of every election.
It is not in the interests of either major party to really advocate that the unemployed and single parents receive an adequate income to be able to live their lives with dignity.
Blaming the victim is alive and well in many sections of our society.
Swan’s specious response to Peter Martin’s question reveals the official mindset.
by Pegasus on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:23 pm
If discussion of the Queensland election is in any way relevant to broader themes of national politics, I’ll allow it here. But discussion of the Ashgrove poll should go on the Ashgrove poll thread.
by William Bowe on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:24 pm
FWIW, I’ve always valued the less cluttered state threads.
by ltep on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Kick-ass piece in Crikey today from Bernard Keane on Wayne Swan’s inspired display of class warfare yesterday. One highlight among many:
by William Bowe on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:31 pm
We did, Joh was in charge!.
by 1934pc on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:31 pm
The recent Carr Conundrum coverage was an example of this. The two media “giants”, Fairfax and News (both claiming credit for the scoop, BTW) got the germ of the story, a few pieces of a much larger puzzle, and sexed it up: 2+2=22. They guessed the rest, putting through their standard “Labor In Crisis… AGAIN!” prism.
They got it wrong, and then tried to make the facts fit their story. For their story to make senses they had to make out that Gillard was being devious and sneaky in “avoiding” their questions.
All she actually did was do what she said she’d do: dismiss commentary on the reshuffle until it actually happened. The only diversion from this was to say that the Australian’s story – that she had offered Carr the job (wrong) and that she had been rolled by the faceless men who control her (wrong) and thus was poor leadership and PM material therefrom (wrong) – was “completely untrue”.
It started out close-ish – Carr had been contacted, true – but quickly deviated far away from reality when all the wishful thinking about Gillard being nobbled within 24 hours of beat Rudd was added to the mix (in Shanahan’s case, by the second paragraph of his original 40 paragraph article).
IF you put a jigsaw puzzle together with some of the pieces in correct arrangement to each other, but ultimately put the lion’s head on a giraffe, and a hippo’s arse on a meerkat – then who’s pinned the tail on the donkey? Gillard or the useless commentariat chasing a gotcha?
They wanted a story that fitted the sexy meme of “Leaderless Labor” and, energized by trying to scoop their rivals, screwed up big time: all of them.
I don’t see why Gillard should be blamed for that. She screwed them all, without even needing an Australian flag to do it.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Sounds like interest rates are left on hold.
by confessions on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:42 pm
I sense a tautology there somewhere. Wonder if Alex Buzo reads PB?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:49 pm
confessions
OMG OMG.Wrong Way McCrann thinks so too !
Well sort of. There is “a new twist” so he thinks interest rates will likely remain the same……………. unless they are changed
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/tread-softly-softly-on-rates/story-fn7j19iv-1226289852556
by poroti on Mar 6, 2012 at 2:56 pm
So, poroti, he is so heartily sick of getting it wrong that this time he made sure he was covered either way. From his point of view it was probably the best he could do.
by triton on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:02 pm
fess, poroti, triton
Bugger!!!
That makes it very difficult to have a bet on interest rate movements. Usually you’re on a winner betting on the opposite of whatever McCrann predicts.
by Dan Gulberry on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:09 pm
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8430621/rba-keeps-cash-rate-at-4-25-per-cent
by Leroy on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Bilbo @862,
Perhaps you could have chosen this quote too..
by cud chewer on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Got to love Centrelink…
hung on the phone for over 10 mins, then long conversation with (very nice) lady. “I can send you out a form, should reach you within the week, and then it will take a fortnight to process.” Me: “Isn’t there a quicker way?” Lady: “Oh, you could sort it out with me right now if you like.”
Which I did. But why didn’t she make that the first option?
by zoomster on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:21 pm
poroti:
I don’t see how McCrann’s commentary can be worth anything other than as joke material!
by confessions on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Reckon this because they sense the banks are going to ignore it anyway. They did last time.
Better for them to leave rates as they are and have banks puts theirs up, and have people suspect they are irrelevant; than lower them and have banks put their rates, thus proving they are irrelevant.
by JohD on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Who would have thunk that, ugly duckling Clarke Kent @SwannyDPM now a cultural & political warrior attacking the Graceless men/women #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:27 pm
GD
Depends if the meaning of parallel is Euclidean or non-Euclidean.
by Diogenes on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:29 pm
George Cash is a former WA State politician – maybe in the 1980s? Was Attorney-General I think at one stage.
Anyway part of a political dynasty I suppose.
Actually G Cash came across as a quite reasonable pollie as I remember it.
by Tricot on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Forgot to add, though largely unnecessary – for the conservatives.
by Tricot on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:34 pm
George Cash was also President of the WA Legislative Council at one stage if I recall correctly.
by ltep on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:37 pm
From memory, he has been wrong about the last three interest rate decisions.
He has either predicted change where there has been no change or no change when there has been a change.
by ShowsOn on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Diog, it dont matter in Law of Uncertainty of Quantum Mechanics because i am certain that you can be both or neither or either or a dead cat or you can be both wRONg & RighT (for a change)
by The Finnigans on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:39 pm
That reminds me: at the height of the Labor leadership challenge, who did the Herald-Sun have to give their expert interpretation? None other than Andrew Bolt and Terry McCrann.
Mind you, the so-called political insiders hardly fared any better.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Interest rates on hold.
Another line for your bumper edition of BISONs, Finns.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Any news on the levee in Wagga? Sounds like an absolute disaster if it is breached.
by Diogenes on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:50 pm
I remember the OO published a couple of McCrann articles about the NBN and climate change.
Suffice to say, he should stick to interest rates soothsaying.
by confessions on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:52 pm
I once posted on here, about 3 years ago I think an e-mail I received back from McCrann. He basically said he wasn’t an economist. Amen to that.
by Gary on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:54 pm
After reading Mr McCrann’s opinion of the NBN in an OO article last Saturday I feel much more confident about the success of the NBN
by poroti on Mar 6, 2012 at 3:58 pm
poroti @887,
That article was so full of shit I pissed myself laughing..
A perfect example of how if you start to believe your own bullshit you end up writing a parody of yourself.
by cud chewer on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:07 pm
by victoria on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Err, the most irresponsible and reckless spending program ever embarked upon by an Australian government was from the $326 Billion windfall income from Mining Boom Mk1 that howard wasted buying votes – that would have built almost 10 NBN’s !
In addition it could have completed the Pacific Highway redevelopment, built more roads throughout the country, built hospitals, schools, tech colleges, trained more doctors, nurses, teachers, put more people through University.
But howard gave it away instead, apart from $20 Billion that costello stuck into the future fund otherwise howard would have spent that too.
Remember that, Terry McCrann?
by dave on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Good grief
by victoria on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Jonathon Holmes on Media Watch last night sinks a well merited boot into the Canberra Press gaggle – if you haven’t already seen this, check it out:
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/
Grattan, Coorey and especially Shanahan come in for some much deserved attention, and the wry smile of Mr Holmes is very much in evidence as he shows us what these alleged ‘professional’ journalists really are – hacks and pretenders.
I loved the references to ‘the observer effect,’ often noted amongst PBers when commenting on Shanahan’s increasing predilection for intruding himself into a story in an ego-driven desire to be a player as his influence (and the influence of the print media in general) declines over time.
Retirement beckons for most of these fading practitioners of a dying profession, and can’t come soon enough for the dementing drongos in Mr Holmes’ sights last night.
by The Big Ship on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:17 pm
I remember a school geography trip to Wagga Wagga. About 1971 We got to interview the Mayor about the fate of North Wagga, the study was about leaving areas uninhabited due to floods.
I remember the Mayor saying North Wagga will never be allowed to have dwellings on it after the recent floods.
I wonder what happened?
by ruawake on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:26 pm
For anyone interested following is finally an ABC reply to a complaint made last year re ABC/IPA although the specific example was not addressed -
by Dr John on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:30 pm
The Big Ship
It was indeed a much deserved swipe. I would have loved to have been in the room when JG and BCarr walked into that press conference last Friday. It would have been a sight to behold!!
by victoria on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Some tiny minds being played with.
by This little black duck on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:33 pm
McCrann has the most preposterous pic of any columnist in the country. Discuss.
by lefty e on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:33 pm
It’s running interference on the ‘ANTI BUSINESS LABOR!!!’ narrative they’d prefer to be running with.
by confessions on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Bob Carr presser.
People are shouting in the background (hecklink?). Anyone know who they are and what their problem is?
by confessions on Mar 6, 2012 at 4:39 pm