Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).
Categories: Federal Election 2010
fulv
ginia apparently relented after talking to a family friend
perhaps that is the link
also on twitter there has been links to JB’s past legal career
In no way is this an assertion, just passing on speculation
by gusface on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:40 pm
also on abc PM , passing mention was made how john had changed his surname
days of our live and the young and the restless couldnt have dreamed this stuff up
by gusface on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Showson,
I have decided to accept your offer to be my first acolyte. Flattery will get you most everywhere.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Gusface,
I have decided that Gina starring in The Mould and The Dutiful is the soapie of the decade and must not be missed. I have ordered buckets of caramel popcorn.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Fulvio:
I haven’t seen anything about JBishop intervention in the Rinehart case.
Was talking about her acceptance of a gift from Gina.
by confessions on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:50 pm
What can you say about a poll where both the majors shed primary votes? Probably that both the majors are struggling to connect with the voters. Both leaders are struggling to connect with the voters.
I don’t think either side of politics can take much joy from this poll. I think we remain in limbo with no clear direction about where things will go longer-term.
by DavidWH on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:52 pm
http://t.co/UeutNqFS
this
by gusface on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:52 pm
He changed his name a few years ago now.
There was something in the WA press at the time about it. Something to do with a falling out with his mother, but I can’t remember exactly.
The Hancock circus at that time was more about the lovely Rose, her daughter ms Lacson and her relationship with John Kizon, and a family lawyer who did something about opening a locked cabinet without a key and removing a will at someone’s request.
by Fulvio Sammut on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:54 pm
fulvio
the rheinocerouses have a long way to go yet
if the fibs arent careful, they will be trampled
by gusface on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Pretty much status quo – both Gillard and Abbott are unpopular, Abbott’s unpopularity is preventing the Coalition from being further in front.
Labor’s best hope of narrowing the gap to 51-49 by the end of the year is a positive reaction to the carbon tax, in terms of compensation to households/increases to pensions & family payments etc
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Gina’s wiki page says her son changed his surname to Hancock after a falling out with his mother.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gina_Rinehart
Rinehart appears to have been in litigation for most, if not all of the last 20 years.
by confessions on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:58 pm
IF GINA REINHART SET UP A HOLDING COMPANY IN VIRGINA, WOULD IT BE CALLED:
VA.GINA HOLDINGS?
by ShowsOn on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:58 pm
@DavidWH/1555,
The primary voting seems to be level atm which means public couldn’t give a toss atm.
Though it’s abit odd that Gillard is up and Abbott is down, while primary is unchanged.
by zoidlord on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:59 pm
I mean @DavidWH/1655
btw.
by zoidlord on Mar 12, 2012 at 11:59 pm
THANK YOU MR PUFF DADDY! I THINK THIS IS YOUR BEST SONG:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNTBb1u6UGg
by ShowsOn on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:00 am
Whatever happened to Prix D’Amour?
Sigh. Those were the days…
by Henry on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:02 am
henry
a rose by any other name……….
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:04 am
Is the 2PP now 47/53 ?
by cud chewer on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:04 am
Zoidlord Abbott losing support doesn’t surprise me. However Labor losing 4 points and the Coalition losing 2 points indicates people aren’t connecting to either side at present.
Be interesting to see the Greens primary. They must have got a big share of that 6 points for the 2PP to have remained the same.
by DavidWH on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:05 am
Henry:
It was demolished.
I believe one of the scandals was the marble columns at the front of the house weren’t actually marble, but some kind of cheap and nasty fake something or other.
by confessions on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:05 am
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Greens Primary: 12 (+1) #auspol
Hmmm
something is not adding up
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:08 am
Prix D’Amour summed up Perth beautifully.
Glitzy, showy, glamorous but not quite real.
Apropos of nothing Johnny Kizon went to school with my brother and subsequently provided protection for his pharmacy…
by Henry on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:11 am
Seems like Essential will report tomorrow, according to Bernard Keane on twitter.
by confessions on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:12 am
MR PUFF DADDY
WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THAT YOU WERE “SWIMMIN’ IN WOMEN WITH THEIR OWN CONDOMINIUMS”?
by ShowsOn on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:12 am
Others gus others!!
Oakey and Windsor on fire!
by Henry on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:12 am
he sold em condoms?
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:13 am
Well, in that case Gus, refer it to Hogwarts accounting and auditing services. They’ll make it balance.
by Fulvio Sammut on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:13 am
Katter polled big in QLD
by DavidWH on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:14 am
John sold condoms wholesale, Henry?
by Fulvio Sammut on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:14 am
Must have been close to 54-46 then…
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:15 am
Matt Franklin explains the drop in ALP PV:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/attacks-on-magnates-a-bit-rich-for-some/story-e6frgd0x-1226297623883
by confessions on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:16 am
It needs to be explained why Abbott/the Liberals are not “connecting” with voters. When it comes to the media, which form the most direct and influential conduit of connection between a party and the public, the landscape leans almost perpendicularly in Liberals advantage. There are every News Limited paper in the land, increasingly under Rinehart the Fairfax stable, every single talkback radio station and presenter, plus the ABC most of the time, enthusiastically endeavouring to make the “connection” for the Liberals, so why isn’t the party connecting?
Labor faces the diametric opposite situation. There is no pro-Labor mainstream outlet, and plenty that are hostile, including the most influential media organisation in the coutnry, News Limited. If Labor has trouble “connecting with voters” chances are better than high, that’s the explanation.
But what’s the Liberals’ excuse?
by Cuppa on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:16 am
If it hadn’t been for Wholesale” I would have been first, Gus.
by Fulvio Sammut on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:16 am
mod
who knows
basically its 14% undecided
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:16 am
fulv
great minds etc etc etc
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:17 am
How is Katter’s party going in the seat contested by Newman?
by cud chewer on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:18 am
Who knows but if 5 points went to others then the 2PP should have moved a point or two unless it was close to 52/48 last time. Damn statistics.
by DavidWH on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:19 am
14% others is not 14% undecided Gus!
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:19 am
mod
what is it then?
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:21 am
Cuppa at least the Coalition primary vote is in the 40′s but it seems the swingers and disallusined Labor voters are struggling.
by DavidWH on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:21 am
DavidWH:
William can correct me if I am wrong (please!) but I think it goes like this:
ALP 31 = 31
Greens 12 = 80% to ALP (+ 9.6)
Others 14 = 40% to ALP (+5.6)
Gives 46.2:53.8
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:23 am
…but it was 13 just a few polls ago in Jan.
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:24 am
Its 14% for Oaky, Windsor, Katter, and all the other non-major party options out there.
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:26 am
Its 14% for Oaky, Windsor, Katter, and all the other non-major party options out there.
which u then allocated to the two majors
so hence dey iz undecided
by gusface on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:29 am
Gus:
Newspoll excludes the “uncommitted” (which was 6% in Feb) and “refused” (which was 2%) and then presents the percentages on the remainder.
Its a reasonable approach as there is no way of predicting why people refused/can’t decide, and is part of the reason why polls can never be 100% accurate.
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:29 am
ML on those primaries it should be around 54/46 but what’s a point?
by DavidWH on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:29 am
I think the millions of Australians voting for them may beg to differ. They have decided to vote for someone other than the majors, they are not undecideds!
by Mod Lib on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:30 am
…shittiest pharmacy in Nollarama…never got touched up once whilst Kizon was on the beat!
by Henry on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:31 am
Apparently nothing yet Fulvio. But she’ll no doubt in due course offer the Rinehart Plaintiffs a well-padded shoulder to cry-on.
I find the whole saga fascinating: The allegation that Gina as trustee unilaterally and without the prior permission of the beneficiaries purported to extent the vesting date of the trust fby some 30 or 35 years; The allegation that Gina, while trustee, was lending trust moneys to herself (love to learn the terms of those loans); Gina’s allegation that had the trust vested as Lang had provided in the deed, the beneficiaries would somehow be liable for some monster capital gains tax; The allegation that one of the Plaintiffs was offered a separate settlement deal consisting of some sort of quarterly remittance to break with the remaining two and withdraw from the claim.
It all sounds highly suss to me.
I can’t wait to see how this all plays-out publicly in an equity court. Should be real fun and games.
No wonder Gina wanted that suppression order.
by smithe on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:31 am
So Newspoll confirms the other polls of showing no voter backlash against the Labor leadership stuff. That’s the real story of this poll.
As I said before, the Rudd era is in the rear-view mirror.
by confessions on Mar 13, 2012 at 12:32 am