Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).
Categories: Federal Election 2010
Night bludgers
by victoria on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:45 pm
zoomster.. you mean last night.. or some time today?
by cud chewer on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:45 pm
def
i sorta agree but
the hole in the ozone layer and subsequent banning of CFC’s created a precedent
since the Rio thingy there has been a lot of dabbling at the edges
say may say, like nero fiddling while rome burnt
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Gussie, Pain Engine is a Man of Constant Sorrow
by The Finnigans on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:46 pm
ML
The only evidence we have so far invalidates the theory. But as you observe, the trend is our friend.
For once, the heat is on the Coalition’s narcissist, the Coalition’s chronic inability to get their billions to balance to the nearest $100 billion and the Coalition’s chronic policy confusion.
Mr Abbott was desperate for an early election because when you are jumping from one ice floe to another, that is exactly what you need.
Mr Abbott is in deep, deep trouble. His stuff just does not add up. His stuff just does not make sense. His colleagues keep disagreeing publicly with each other about what policy is, or isn’t in the bag.
All this will take a while for this to percolate through. But it will.
by Boerwar on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:46 pm
night Vic. I’m off too.
by Super on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Good night Victoria. Sleep well.
by Boerwar on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Has Johnston had anything to say? I haven’t seen him this time around.
by confessions on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Treatment of asylum seekers in Indonesian immigration detention – LL now
by Pegasus on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:47 pm
They are off to the Windies this week.
by This little black duck on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:47 pm
BW, what about the hot cocoa
by The Finnigans on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:47 pm
So is the argument that the polls stayed the same because people didn’t change their minds?
This theory I would agree with if the polls had improved but we’re not saying that are we? They essentially stayed the same.
by Gary on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:47 pm
fess
i saw him on abc24 at about 4pm est
he didnt want to deviate from smith should apologise
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Finns
I wish he would unhitch his caboose
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:49 pm
It would seem that the new ABC Chairman will have his work cut out.
LL reported on the ADFA developments and much of the report concerned Smith being under pressure and Abbott calling for him or the PM to apologise. Reference was made to a ‘secret report leaked to a commercial TV station’ but it was limited to revealing that the female cadet’s room had been sprayed with a different substance. No reference to the alleged negative findings about the commandant (and therefore no positive for Smith).
by CO on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Oakeshott Country @ 195,
I don’t think the little darlings would have that much in them.
by C@tmomma on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Which is exactly why semantics over this word vs that word is nothing more than do-nothing bullshit designed by hacks to distract us from the penultimate aim: reducing our GHGEs.
I’m curious that we are now seeing Green foot-soldier comments along the do-nothing lines of ‘carbon=bad’. Are the Greens about to u-turn on carbon pricing?
by confessions on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:52 pm
co
good
their abc is slowly tightening the noose
(an old torture was to apply a leatherr thong around the neck and slowly soak it with water- it eventually contracts sufficiently)
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:53 pm
One modest but heroic example of a sovereign nation making a political decision to act against the tide of received international opinion was the Kindertransport movement in the UK in the late 1930′s wherein the UK Government, quietly, without fanfare agreed to accept 100s of unaccompanied refugee Jewish children from Germany.
by Rossmore on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:53 pm
G
Shorter summary of the discussion:
(1) There was a poll at or just before the Labor leadership resolution time that showed a slight improvement for Labor.
(2) This was interpreted by some at the time as possibly indicating that Mr Rudd’s popularity was at work because people were anticipating that he would be successful in his leadership tilt.
(3) If this theory was correct, we could have expected polls after the leadership resolution to have dropped for Labor, Mr Rudd’s popularity no longer having a positive effect for Labor.
(4) This drop has not, so far, occurred.
(5) Therefore the interpretation that pre-stoush poll showed an increase in Labor figures because of Mr Rudd’s popularity is not supported by the polling that has been reported susbequently.
by Boerwar on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:53 pm
How does the location of military bases impact on Abbotts public stance?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_military_bases
by Pegasus on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:54 pm
C@tmomma,
“the little darlings” is a particularly appropriate sobriquet.
by This little black duck on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:55 pm
208
Yet another horrible manifestation of “border control”.
by Tom the first and best on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Gus,
From a scientific point of view it has always been in the middle.
Sadly, both the far right and the far left have turned climate change into a sport where the truth is left behind.
I did a PhD on the subject in the 90s before it was sexy and all I can tell you with my experience is that climate change is real.
It is not as bad as the left make out.
It does exist and does have negative consequences which the right deny.
The REAL argument is in the middle and it has been completely lost in the uninformed bluster.
The truth will win out in the end.
The problem will be acknowledged.
It will be seen for what it is, a problem, one of many that needs to be dealt with.
We will take a hit, but if we do a bit now then we will save future generations a big hit. Simple as that.
by deflationite on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:56 pm
P
That is the longest rhetorical question we have had for some time. If you include the link.
by Boerwar on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:56 pm
You have forgotten the most important bits:
There HAS been a drop (from an 8 point gap which had been constant for months to a 12 point gap which we haven’t seen in Essential for ages).
There was no drop in Morgan F2F, I grant you that, but it is the least reliable of the 6 polls we examine in detail here.
by Mod Lib on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Lateline with Tony Jones very dull tonight. Emma tomorrow night. Hope she has a Tory guest.
by Rossmore on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:57 pm
gusface,
The Spaniards did a nice tourniquet in South America in the fourteen hundreds.
by This little black duck on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:58 pm
agree 100%
what I was alluding to is that INSTANT action can happen
cf banning CFC’s
that precedent has muddied subsequent actions
for good and bad
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:58 pm
confessions,
If ur referring to me….Couldn’t be bothered addressing your egregious verballing and your spurious speculation.
by Pegasus on Mar 8, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Ttfatb,
Your green petticoat is showing.
by This little black duck on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:00 pm
ducky
its funny
but theirabc is frothing at nothings
the more they do it, the more they tighten the noose
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:00 pm
ML
Ah. OK. The results are inconclusive.
As you say, let’s see what happens as people learn to see the real Julia and the real Tony for what they are and what they can deliver.
by Boerwar on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Alberici is a far superior interviewer to that of Jones IMO.
by confessions on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Pegasus,
Aww!
by This little black duck on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:01 pm
tlbd
by Pegasus on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Pegasus:
You can comment or not to your heart’s content. No skin off my nose.
by confessions on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:02 pm
confessions,
And your nose grows longer with every utterance
by Pegasus on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Good night all.
by Boerwar on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Goodnight all.
May your night be peaceful and full of dreams of what can be
by Pegasus on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Horsey, you mean like this?
http://www.northfur.ca/prosthetics/054/054_main.jpg
by The Finnigans on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:08 pm
230
I do support the Greens.
I do oppose migration control.
Nothing wrong with either.
by Tom the first and best on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:14 pm
I’m sure the Greens are so pleased to know they have adult advocates of your quality on side to advance their objectives. Like refusing to buy in wholus bolus to semantic rubbish about the value of the word ‘carbon’.
Oh wait….
by confessions on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:14 pm
tom
u are aware the truce ended recently
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:16 pm
evening bludgers,
Looks like MSM over-reach again with this ADFA report and ther calls for Smith to resign. The leaked ‘secret report’ seems to back the Minister-up pretty-well completely in rehards to his comments and actions at the time.
As for “spokesmen” like Neil James, they remind me a bit of that Neidermeyer character in Animal House – the ROTC military nut who supposedly ends-up getting shot by his own men in Vietnam.
by smithe on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:17 pm
smithe @ 244
Agree 100% but it is outrageous that LL tonight reports that the real significance of leaked ‘secret report’ is the nature of the substance used to spray the cadet’s room with no reference to the finding that it seems to back the Minister up.
by CO on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:26 pm
morpheus awaits
by gusface on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Tony Jones and Martin Indyk on Lateline
__________________
WOW What an impartial expert Indyk is !!!
A passionate zionist and former US Ambassador to israel( curious that Israel will only except a Jewish person as it’s Ambassador from the USA ..thus giving then an inside view of what goes on inside the US Embassy at all times
)
Indyk was an Australian then a US citizen and also an Israeli
and Jones was asking his opinion on the conflict with Iran ! WOW
He mouthed all the same lies as Netanyahu(and as Merkel famously was heard to say .”.he\\Netanyahu is a terible liar”)
So why doesn’t the ABC try to get some one impartial l…young Anthony Lowenstein who is Jewish but a critic of Israel and it’s rabid right-wing leaders.would be good.but even Indyk who is all for bombing Iran had to admit that the consequences would be dire,
,,much worse than Iraq with a disaster for the world economy as an outcome… great policies !
No wonder Obama is not going along with Israel’s desire for war/war/war
Talk about “their ” ABC
Jones is pathetic
by deblonay on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:44 pm
The dude who heckled Abbott last week has been ‘forced to resign’.
Boss wants him to work 5 days but he’s contracted for 4. No wonder he likes Tony Abbott visiting.
by Fiz on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:55 pm
Where’s Albrechtsten, Steyn, Roskam and Switzer when you need them, eh?
by confessions on Mar 8, 2012 at 11:56 pm