Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).
Categories: Federal Election 2010
CTar1,
Advertisers spend their dollars where the eyeballs are. No eyeballs. No revenue stream.
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:47 am
Gina loses in the HC.
by This little black duck on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:51 am
SK – That’s why free delivered newspapers work well. Politicians avoid like the plague any question that these should only be delivered if you ‘opt in’ in case they campaign against them in local areas. ‘Big delivery’ figures still work for these.
by CTar1 on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:52 am
victoria,
I have been busy. It was really hard walking away from the laptop everyday. No PB fix!
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:53 am
So many hearts will bleed across the country!
by BK on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:53 am
A great interview with a very senior guy from Siemens (a bigger company than BHP Billiton) on green technology over at Climate Spectator today:
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/siemens-spots-50-billion-opportunity?utm_source=Climate%20Spectator&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=10f73ad0cc-CSPEC_DAILY
Not the sort of thing you’ll see much of in the MSM unfortunately
by Marrickville Mauler on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:53 am
SK
That is why i have an Ipad. I can multitask!!!!
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:54 am
victoria,
With an allen key and screwdriver in hand? I should have had you here!
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 11:56 am
SK
Not sure how much help I would have been. My older daughter on the other hand, is a whizz putting things together with an allan key!!!!
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Without advertisers there will be no profits.
by B.C. on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:01 pm
I sometimes enjoy a little fantasy of what might happen if the media shoe were on the other foot. Image the Liberals contending with a universally-hostile media. There they’d be, trying to get their spin out, as is their perpetual wont. And there the media would be, with shock jocks and newspaper columnists and TV ranters 24/7 screaming, “Don’t vote for the Coalition! They’re only interested in looking after billionaires. They’ll screw you to make the wealthy ones wealthier! They will run down your public schools and hospitals. They will send your kids to harm’s way in unjustified wars.”
Having no counter to the shocking truth being unremittingly, and without competition, sent into the minds of the voting populace, the Coalition wold be finished as a mainstream political force. I mean, who would VOTE for that? The 10 per cent or so of the population who are literally rich enough to vote Liberal? That’s not enough to sustain a major party. They’d go the way of the dinosaur… a creature they are but don’t yet know it.
by Cuppa on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Update: Coal Seam Gas; landholders’ rights etc
As this agreement is a Qld first, it’s likely to become a template for other states; so those with rural properties, esp if covered by mining tenements (as most of Oz is), might find these, as well as earlier legislation, inc “Wild Rivers” legislation, handy for whatever lobbying/ awareness raising work you/ your neighbours & friends etc are planning to tackle re farmers v miners land rights – esp those in the Hunter & Sydney Environs for whom it’s a very big issue.
Here’s the latest (report of yesterday’s meeting): Agforce Team Removes Confusion
An overview of & link to Changes to the law are @ Coal Seam Gas and Land Access Agreement: 16th August 2011
Further information on AgForce Queensland Website
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:10 pm
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Re a Media Watch type show every day. Does anyone think a Jon Stewart or a Stephen Colbert type show would work here? They both routinely destroy the MSM and politicians and their biases and hypocrisy of said outlets. Combined with, on occasions, hard hitting interviews. There certainly is enough content within the Australian media and body politic for such a show.
by hugh moran on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Cuppa
I am of the firm view that the govt should be receiving the bulk of the scrutiny as the government. But in light of the fact that we are dealing with a minority govt, and the msm and coalition have constantly reminded us that they should be taken seriously as the alternative, because of the minority status. Well, On that basis the coalition needs to be held to account for their alternative position. The msm to date, have failed to do so. The coalition have been able to take up most of the airtime expressing what they are against, but not putting forward a coherent argument for what they stand for. It is about time they were made to do so.
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:11 pm
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:13 pm
high moran
Stewart and Colbert are my heros!
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:14 pm
victoria
Especially given that Tony keeps calling for an election right away. The oppn should have everything set to go.
by triton on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:16 pm
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Yes, yes, yes to a Jon Stewart type show here.
by confessions on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:18 pm
triton
Precisely my point
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:18 pm
SK@418
LOL!!
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:20 pm
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:21 pm
The pity about Stewart and Colbert is that, IMHO, they are far and away the best political reporters in the USA is that they are on the Comedy Channel and not on free to air.
by hugh moran on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:23 pm
hugh moran
I reckon Colbert/Stewart democratic ticket 2016!!!
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:25 pm
For those not in the know about the alternative meaning of his name – google ‘Santorum’ and see what is the first entry. Once in the know it is amusing to see some of the headlines coming out.
by hugh moran on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Unfortunately we don’t have the talent in this country. The best we have is Chaser. Great if you’re 20, not so hot for the rest of us.
by Son of foro on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:31 pm
They were on free-to-air here till a year or two ago. Then dropped by the ABC. I wonder why…. too politically-incorrect for the ‘new ABC’, perhaps?
by Cuppa on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:33 pm
The fact they they don’t gives the game away. They know it’s going to be a long haul.
Yet, even yesterday, 2GB had several callers phoning in begging Chris Smith to petition the Governor-General for an immediate election.
I guess once-upon-a-time, an immediate election could have been called wihtout the Opposition having to change much policy-wize, like in September or October of 2010, perhaps even as late as in the month after the Carbon-Like-A-Tax Announcement.
Not too much had been done re. the CT, the NBN was still reversible, Telstra still owned the copper in the ground, the MRRT was a wet dream, money hadn’t been spent, budgets hadn’t been allocated… they might have pulled one off based on their 2010 + Howard Leftovers policies then.
But not now. It’s too late for the yellowing scribbles from the last campaign to really be relevant. Many think it’s not, of course, but they are being kept fed with a diet of anger and adrenalin. That’s alright for a month, maybe six, you could stretch it out to 8-10, but not 18 months. You have to have a square meal sometime, or else you start eating your own.
We’re closer now to the next election date than we are to the last one. It’s getting serious. They have to come up with something that passes the laugh test or else even their most enthusiastic spruikers from the business and influence-peddling worlds will be starting to freak out.
Wonderfully, the longer Abbott stays as leader, the better for Gillard. As long as he runs his argument that nothing succeeds like success (even id only success in opinion polls) the better for Labor. This isn’t sour grapes… I’m serious.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Another example of the growing disjunct (“cognitive dissonance”) between what the Oz Opposition says and Oz MSM reports, and the reality of the responses of international commerce, industry and trade (inc trade in carbon credits) to Carbon Reduction and Emission Trading Schemes (ETS).
BTW: Recently came across this wiki article which may come in handy when the debate between CSG-fired power houses (and export of CSG to other nations for their CSG-fired stations) and those who demand non-carbon energy only. Spark Spread
More in the article – including lots of links, some very good.
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:34 pm
SoF
John Doyle I think could do it very well.
by hugh moran on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:34 pm
We probably do, somewhere; they just haven’t been uncovered yet. And likely never will. The media here hardly have a good track record for cultivating new talent, LET ALONE that verboten species, progressive talent.
by Cuppa on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Victoria
That response to Cassidy’s article mentioned Fran Kelly. Here’s what she said on The Outsiders on 19 February:
Fran Kelly still has a job, but I’m not sure too many people are taking her seriously any more.
by Son of foro on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Absolutely!
by confessions on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:44 pm
SOF
Fran and others have been getting it wrong on a regular basis. It seems they are all suffering credibility
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:45 pm
I believe the rights to these shows were bought by Foxtel, and they are now on cable television here.
I assume it was just a matter of cost – the ABC weren’t prepared to outbid Foxtel.
Sadly, I’m guessing that same decision appears to be why (unless you do internet jiggery-pokery to get around the restriction) you can no longer watch these shows on the internet direct from Comedy Central in this country…
by Jackol on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Dio
There would be two reasonable reasons for having two reports. The private report might have in it material that is subject to the Privacy Act and/or material that may relate to court cases to come.
That said, from what very little we can glean, Mr Kirkham appears to have done a poor job of straddling. I would suggest that he avoids barbed wire fences.
by Boerwar on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Tony Abbott’s direct action policy is hypocrisy masquerading as ignorance.
by Aguirre on Mar 9, 2012 at 12:58 pm
jackol
Your assessment is correct
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Aguirre
gold!
by victoria on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:00 pm
What is happening at Kiribati is almost certainly NOT related to climate related sea level increases but to local and/or regional sea level changes caused by something else. These regional sea level changes are the norm rather than the exception. Along parts of the Australian coast in recent times, the sea level had dropped. Along other parts, the sea level has risen.
Over time the global base sea level (around which regional will vary) will increase but the changes so far are not nearly enough to explain what is happening at Kiribati.
It is also likely that regional sea levels will be affected by regional changes in climate but there is not enough juice in the modeeling to predict with confidence what these might be.
BTW, I believe it was last year, the global sea level fell by 6mm. The reason was that a very wet year had temporarily transferred enough water to the land surface.
by Boerwar on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:03 pm
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:04 pm
On TWT West Australian editor-in-chief Bob Cronin said that when he was editor of The Sun in Melbourne it had 3 million readers but no one he met admitted reading it. They all said they read The Age.
by triton on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:09 pm
BB @ 320
Any change at News Ltd in this country probably won’t happen while ever the dead hand of the octogenarian Murdoch rests on the lifeboat’s tiller, however lifelessly at this time. The News Ltd broadsheet flagship is now more like a garbage scow adrift in the doldrums of new digital media age, moving ever closer to the rocky shoals of insolvency and irrelevance, leaking oily reactionary platitudes and leaving a scum slick of mendacity and false story flotsam in its aimless wake.
Until the Old Man finally releases his palsied grasp, either through the intervention of shareholders (or more likely the Grim Reaper) the News Ltd ship of state will continue to circle ever faster around the plughole of potential news insignificance in preparation for disappearing, like most of Shanahan’s recent journalistic output, down and around the S-bend of history.
by The Big Ship on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Mr Murdoch’s mother just turned 103.
He may well have a couple of decades more of useful contribution to mankind left in him.
by Boerwar on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Clarke and Dawe on Clive Palmer: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-08/clarke-and-dawe-enter-the-age-of-reason/3877996
by Space Kidette on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Looks like Mordor & Mordor junior have oodles more poo to deal with;
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/tv-radio/ofcom-looks-at-stripping-murdoch-of-bskyb-7546200.html
Please ‘Dog’ make it so!
by grantplant on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:14 pm
They’d need to be tolerated in order to get aired. That’s your major obstacle. We have three major commercial networks all pumping out soft right/populist messages, and a government funded network currently engaged in chasing the market, which is pushing their message to the right as well. a Stewart/Colbert style show sits very uneasily with that ethos.
Secondly, all political commentary in this country is po-faced. Journalists and editors react badly enough to not being taken seriously as it is. It’s hard to work up comedic hysteria in an environment like that. You’d actually need 2GB-ism to infect the country in the way Fox News has infected the US in order to create the need for a comedic counter-weight. Put it this way, if CBS and NBC were all Jon Stewart had to riff off in the US, his show wouldn’t work.
Lastly, we just don’t have the talent. I know Wil Anderson is a smart-arse, but it would require someone with his level of mental agility plus a searing social conscience and the cojones to work outside the system to make it work. And then you’d need a large-ish writing team working at that level to feed him.
It might work as an entry-level Foxtel comedy channel show. It could build a grass-roots audience from there. But to find a talented enough cast and crew to work for peanuts because they care enough, and the goodwill from above to let them do it, is a lot to ask.
by Aguirre on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Penny Wong on shortly “to respond to Tony Abbott”. ABC95.
by This little black duck on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:15 pm
In the world of reading education theory there used to be (and I am speaking of a time more than four decades ago) a formal concept of ‘reading age’.
I recall that the reading age required to read the Herald Sun was somewhere around 11-12 years.
I suppose whether you admitted reading it or not, might have depended on whether you were inclined to the cup half-full or the cup half-empty view of your reading age.
by Boerwar on Mar 9, 2012 at 1:16 pm