Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition
Morgan’s latest face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 878, shows no change in the two-party support from poll conducted a week earlier in the two days before the Labor leadership spill: the Coalition leads 52-48 on respondent-allocated preferences and 50-50 with preferences distributed as per the result of the 2010 election. However, both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by 1.5 per cent to 39 per cent and the Coalition by 1 per cent to 43.5 per cent. The Greens are down one point to 10 per cent with “others” down 1.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. One hesitates to read too much into Morgan face-to-face polls, but I’m tempted to read this as more evidence of opinion polling’s remarkable imperviousness to recent political turmoil (though judgement should be reserved until more post-spill polling evidence becomes available). Morgan also treats us to state-level breakdowns derived from the last month of regular weekend polling, thereby producing useable samples for the states individually. This convincingly shows Labor struggling in NSW and performing best in South Australia, but eyebrows may be raised at the result from Queensland: Labor trails only 51-49, quite a lot better for them than the 54.5-45.5 New South Wales result, and has a higher primary vote than in Victoria (39.5 per cent compared with 38 per cent).
Categories: Federal Election 2010
http://www.alp.org.au:6020/federal-government/news/more-liberals-and-business-groups-walk-away-from-t/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Poor Tony will soon be on his lonesome
by mari on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Is there any definitive proof that the Oz loses money? I work with an annoying right-wing IT nerd who actually buys the Oz everyday, and reads it, and believes everything in it. He insists that a great businessman like Murdoch would never keep a money losing venture going. What proof could I show him?
by david on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Can Do in deep do do.
Are there enough gullible turkeys to vote this chancer in ?
Buyers remorse must be setting in about now.
http://www.news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8432358
by Bill B. on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Diogs,
If he has been absolved of confidentiality as the PM did with her universal amnesty to the journaltariat, then the only reason they would not take it up would be because of the potential damage to their credibility to admit they had participated in such sham arrangement in the first place.
The Ruddstoration Four took this confidentiality schtick to a new level. They were clearly trying to engineer news and be players in the leadership outcome. The story, in the end, is the manufacture of news, not the information they were accessing.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:44 pm
GG
I think Gawenda pointed out the problems of these parasitic relationships very well.
by Diogenes on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Re Morgan Face to Face one of my friends who “hates ” JG, I can’t convert all people, had a Face to Face, which meant the forms evidently were left for her, when they came to her place, she posted them off (guess would be in this lot of figures) and she now picks out a present,(was posting off what she wanted to Morgan) not sure what the present is, will ask, but trying not to show too much interest.
by mari on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Hmm.
“Without the nuclear power angle it was just another run of the mill natural disaster”
GG and Dio, How about “Without the avoidable element that should have been under human control, but wasn’t, it was just another run of the mill natural disaster”
Or more broadly “if we define away the problem because it doesnt suit us whats the problem”
Found that honest man yet Dio? …. thought not.
by Marrickville Mauler on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:53 pm
254
It is possible to control infectious diseases without a general immigration control program. I do not support refusing entry to disabled people because of their disability and doing this is becoming increasingly less acceptable to the Australian general public.
Describing people as “undesirables” is ever so slightly bigoted. Why should people who have served their sentences be restricted from travelling once their sentence has ended? Do the worlds poor not have the right to try and get out of poverty by migrating to richer nations were even unskilled work is more highly valued?
What right do comparatively wealthy Australians (or Americans, Europeans, etc.) to say no to the worlds poor migrating to get to a similar level of wealth? Answer, NONE!
However it does need to be a more general abolition of border controls than just for a small nation like Australia so there is not a disproportionate flow of people to 1 place (likely to have a greater drag down effect and a lesser drag up effect.) but a greater spread. One of the smaller EU member states (probably with a language only it speaks) changing its citizenship laws to have universal citizenship of said EU member state (and thus residency, working and partial voting rights in the rest of the EU) would be a reasonable start.
You seem to view opposition to immigration control as not a reasonable/legitimate point of view when if there is an unreasonable/illegitimate view point on this then it is supporting immigration control.
by Tom the first and best on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Diogs,
Cassidy gives the behaviour context when he describes the culture change in the news rooms to journalists being able to deliver “exclusives” rather than proper analysis.
No doubt the behaviour has been around forever. However, it’s new that the doyens and doyennes of the Press gallery feel a need to engage the process to protect their position, power, prestige and longevity.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 3:58 pm
MM,
The point is that the nuclear aspect was a very minor part of this terrible disaster.
It’s just our interpretation of this event was overwhelmed by the fear and paranoia about nuclear power in our culture.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:01 pm
News journos facing the chop!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/news-journalists-on-footing-for-job-cuts-20120309-1up79.html
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:14 pm
I have and he’s not a politician.
by Diogenes on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:17 pm
MM –
Yes, they could have prevented the nuclear meltdown by upgrading a 40 year old power plant …. and they could have saved thousands of lives by relocating houses away from the shore in a tsunami zone
The nuclear element is just an element. There is nothing that makes it worse than the rest of the disaster, and the rest of the disaster actually killed people
by SoulmanZ on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Tom – By undesirable I am referring to war criminals, convicted terrorist, mass murders, serial rapist, Kiddy fiddlers, drug & people smugglers.
Now how is attempting to prevent them entering the country bigoted.
I never said prevent disabled people from moving to Australia, by health checks I am talking about people with highly transmittal diseases.
The voting public want controls in place and the government is answerable to the voters and if we are too have a larger immigration program then we need to have public support for that program or otherwise you run the risk of seeing a number of Pauline Hanson’s getting themselves elected.
Also by having a structured immigration program the various agencies can plan for the increase in population.
The funny thing is I see many who support a higher immigration rate until the day comes that government allows high rises in their area then all of a sudden their position changes.
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:22 pm
And I serious dealt any poor person is able to buy a seat on a leaking boat, not many poor people can afford 5-10,000 dollars
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:25 pm
EXCLUSIVE ! Lord Barry Bonkton has a 1.9 KW Solar system fitted to the Castle today and has from lunch time wound back the money meter by over 4 kWh so far. My daily Average Usage is 7.80 kWh ( Sept.20th – DEC 11th ) I have had solar hot water for 15 yrs so far. Have to wait till Energex swaps over the meter to a digital one and then submit a EWR form to my supplier to buy any extra kHw i produce. I now own a power company. I will spend my weekend watching the inverter in my shed in SUNNY QLD. No PB.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:25 pm
mb
Sounds like they might still get a job at Queensland Health though.
by Diogenes on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:26 pm
http://www.news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8432358
Thanks for that link BillB.
The stench around Newman is becoming a bit much to ignore, isn’t it?
It seems to me that should he be elected, a new Joh-style era of graft and corruption is a definite possibility for the sunshine state.
by smithe on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:28 pm
GG, Diog, only 2 of the 54 Nuclear Power plants are still operation in Japan.
Whether Fukushima is or isnt a major disaster is no longer relevant. The train has left the platform and the Nuclear Power brand in Japan is fuacked.
Last week BBC radio did a program on the future of Nuclear Power in Japan. It was reporting that the current Govt is seriously considering the abandonment of Nuclear Power and embracing Green Power instead in a big way. Watch this space.
by The Finnigans on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:28 pm
I was under the impression that the Japanese were closing down all Nuclear Power Plants, I believe Germany is following suit
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Finn, give it a few years. Looks terminal now, but the replacement cost would be outrageous. I reckon the people will change their mind when their hip pockets start hurting
Re: disaster though, gotta bear this in mind -
the only energy alternative for the 40 years Fukushima was operating was fossil fuel power, probably coal. Coal energy production at that one plant would have caused dozens to hundreds of deaths in that time, from cancer, lung disease etc. (~10-40k deaths per year in USA)
The nuclear power plant saved those lives. Opportunity cost. Even in isolation this plant is life neutral, if not life-saving compared to the only alternative. Then add in every other nuclear plant in the world, ever, that has never had a meltdown (excluding Chernobyl obviously). That is hundreds of thousands of lives saved, for up to a few thousand deaths in chernobyl, and currently none in Fukushima. If it was a medicine it would be PBS listed!
by SoulmanZ on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Arthur Sinodinos is a Senator. I can’t seem him becoming LotO any time in the near future (just as claims of leadership ambitions for Senator Bob Carr are also unjustified IMHO).
by B.C. on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Sinodinos might move to the HoR sooner than later with both Bishop and Ruddock surely close to retirement within the next few terms
by mexicanbeemer on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Sinodinis is a King maker. Guess who is on Lateline Tonight.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:41 pm
A few people here will be thrilled to know the next Quarterly Essay (not the one just released but the next one) will be written by Laura Tingle titled:
The Big Whinge: Politics, Affluence and an Angry Nation
http://www.quarterlyessay.com/next-issue
by spur212 on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:49 pm
smithe, it difficult to understand how that sort of information regarding Newman and his associates did not come up in any vetting procedure. That horse has now well and truly bolted.
by Bill B. on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Apologies if this has been posted-I may have missed it scanning through:
First submissions to inquiry published
Some of the comments are beyond offensive. We’ve just been scrolling through a few & we’re so very very angry and upset.
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Er, Smithe, try “certainty”.
by Scringler on Mar 9, 2012 at 4:58 pm
You seemed to think it pretty relevant when you were using it as the basis to rant “shame on you” at Japan this time a year ago, even as it was pulling the corpses of tens of thousand of its citizens from the rubble of its coastal cities.
by William Bowe on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Finns
I don’t think Japan is well placed for Green energy in terms of solar, wind, tidal, geothermal etc.
They have already maximised their hydroelectric power.
They have quite a few energy problems. Their power is already very expensive.
by Diogenes on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Bilbo, as usual, red herring, i was referring to the lies of the Japanese Govt
by The Finnigans on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:02 pm
And I have been proven RIGHT!!!!
by The Finnigans on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Diog are you advocating that Qld Health, or any other state heath dept, never employ people with convictions for any of its positions, eg gardiners, cleaners, maintainence people?
Should any public authority employ people with convictions?
Who should employ released felons?
by kevjohnno on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Has anyone read Shane Maloney’s political-crime novels about the ALP staffer?
Are they any good?
by Diogenes on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Anyway, good afternoon – and good night – Bludgers.
One calls for advice from the wise heads here. During the termination of PB for 48 hours, is it recommended that one wear and stock up on tin-foil hats?
Is there a DIY kit available?
by Scringler on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:07 pm
kevjohnno
I’m not advocating anything but it’s a very interesting argument though.
Can you discriminate against someone, employment wise, because they are a murderer, rapist, bank robber etc?
My understanding is that you can’t unless it impacts on their suitability to do their job but it is a very grey area.
by Diogenes on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:10 pm
FWIW & public info
http://www.skynews.com.au/video/?vId=3111593&cId=Programs&play=true
by Leroy on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Diogs,
There’s 3 novels. Very Melbourne with a strong ALP 80′s and 90′s flavour.
A good holiday read.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Aaaggghhh.
by Rox on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:14 pm
With PB closed, for a bit of fun why not go over to Frank’s joint and get banned which would not look too bad on the CV. Only joshin’!
by Dr John on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Abbott’s Audit Commission is a pretend to do something while you are not doing anything. It’s another Abbott’s aspiration #auspol
by The Finnigans on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:17 pm
I suppose no-one saw David Speers at lunchtime talking about education with Peter Garrett, Tim Wilson and two other blokes whose names I didn’t catch. I could only watch for a few minutes. Wilson dragged up that old Tory chestnut vouchers for schools. The Tories are obsessed with vouchers. Wilson waffled on about giving the most choice but honestly, he had no idea. I didn’t have time to work out whether Timmy wanted vouchers for all schools or just private ones. The voucher thing won’t work because -
It would need to be administered by an army of public servants and this would cost squillions, and -
Country areas would find no advantage – there’s no point being given ‘choice’ via a voucher wif you have only one school locally anyway.
Money spent on implementing this fruit-loop scheme would be better spent improving state schools. Yet every few months the Libs drag it all up again as if it was an amazing new idea.
by leone on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Well smithe, i think you have pretty much encapsulated where the Coalitions election campaign stands at the moment, and probably will stand for as long as
is front man.
Heard him on the radio this morning and i think its going to be getting sad for him over the next few weeks as people start to pay a bit more attention to economic numbers.
by imacca on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:20 pm
A few examples among many of The Finnigans’ compassionate reaction to the vast human tragedy which descended upon Japan a year ago.
by William Bowe on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Afternoon, bludgers.
I’ll be on Hobart ABC at 7pm tonight if you are interested in listening in:
http://www.abc.net.au/hobart/
by Aristotle on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Hope everyone has a good weekend and will catch up sometime Sunday evening.
Best wishes to the Crikey geeks with the server upgrade.
by DavidWH on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:29 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/news-journalists-on-footing-for-job-cuts-20120309-1up79.html
David 551 about half way down this article it mentions The OZ loss making status
by mari on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:30 pm
As I wander off to the pub, a little dedication to the coming weekend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuCRLHY7mOY
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:31 pm
eeeuw. cold turkey coming up.
Loved ones have already provided feedback that I am behaving strangely. The Jack Russell is wary.
by Boerwar on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:32 pm
I think people are assuming it’s a “server upgrade”. It could be a downgrade. Never know. Cheaper.
by sohar on Mar 9, 2012 at 5:36 pm