Comments on: Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Ashgrove

By: Mod Lib

Mod Lib — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 12:14:42 +0000

GhostWhoVotes ‏ @GhostWhoVotes Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
#Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39.2 (-2.8) LNP 60.8 (+2.8) #qldvotes #auspol

By: DavidWH

DavidWH — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 11:33:48 +0000

BBS should be a NewsPoll out tonight

By: blackburnpseph

blackburnpseph — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 11:15:08 +0000

Are we expecting to hear from our friend ‘the Ghost’ tonight?

By: Graeme Orr

Graeme Orr — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:51:25 +0000

Just returned home to a last minute Robo-Call from Kev. For ‘my friend Simon Finn’. I’m guessing he recorded a few dozen otherwise identical spiels.

By: Graeme Orr

Graeme Orr — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:18:00 +0000

Von K @ 38.

“Queensland does indeed seem to work differently though, they’ve only changed government in a full state election 3 times in the past 80 years.”

Sure there are regional differences in Oz, but they are less than we imagine. Long term govts were the norm everywhere. QLD is about to change a 5th time since the last war began, just over 70 yrs ago. That’s the same as NSW.

By: Graeme Orr

Graeme Orr — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:02:01 +0000

A so-so long term administration has run out of steam. A listless opp alighted on a blokey, known leader. sound familiar?

Rudd Labor won a 5% swing in the same context: why Newman could get 10% is the conundrum. (I’m assuming that swing; the polls are back to where they were a year ago). Sure, Qld ran into economic downswing earlier and harder: not Bligh/Fraser’s fault, but you take the credit/blame. But even Keating, unloved by the many and coming out of a tough recession, managed 39% primary/46+ TPP.

Everything under about 37/45 tomorrow represents contemporary Labor’s nadir, and needs explaining beyond blaming a decent, intelligent Premier or Banabending differences. Grattan et al are wrong to say this election has federal implications for
Labor: rather it reflects an Australia-wide malaise for the party.

(All that said, neither Qld ALP nor LNP have the talent to fill a ministry: state politics nationwide isn’t attracting enough calibre.)

By: Psephos

Psephos — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 09:57:07 +0000

I don’t think Australian Muslims vote as Muslims. They vote Labor for the same reason the great majority of working-class immigrants do: because they see Labor as the party that defends their economic well-being, and also as the party of multi-culturalism.

By: Geoff Robinson

Geoff Robinson — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 09:31:24 +0000

Sydney class polarized? In part but its also Muslims & atheists vs. the rest unlike Melbourne. 2011 NSW for every 10% increase in non-Christians Labor vote up 3% (Jews in Vaucluse notwithstanding), and for non-professionals/managers up 7% for every 10% increase. Victoria rather different.

By: Von Kirsdarke

Von Kirsdarke — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 09:23:01 +0000

I see. Thank you for explaining that.

I was thinking more along the lines that if an opposition (especially a Liberal one) wins an election in a substantial swing, they generally lose around half of the seats they gained previously are lost in the next election (ie – Federally the Liberals won 28 seats in 1996 and lost 14 in 1998; Labor won 23 in 2007 and lost 11 in 2010; in NSW the Liberals won 22 seats in 1988 and lost 10 in 1991. I know of the exceptions though, like Victoria in 1992/96, WA in 2001/05 and Queensland in 1989/92), and I assumed Ashgrove may be high on the list of those in danger of going back.

Queensland does indeed seem to work differently though, they’ve only changed government in a full state election 3 times in the past 80 years.

By: Psephos

Psephos — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 08:53:51 +0000

I think the notion that if Newman wins Ashgrove with a 2PP of under 55% (as I expect), it will be a dangerous seat for him in 2015 is probably misguided. Suburban Brisbane is much “softer” politically than Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide, by which I mean it is less polarised along class lines, with a huge “soft centre” of voters without firm class identity or fixed political loyalty. So when Labor wins big, it wins virtually everything in Brisbane, as it did in 2001. When the Libs win big, they win virtually everything, as they apparently will tomorrow. If Newman gets a second term, it will be because the Brisbane seats consolidate behind him, as they consolidated behind Labor after 1998 for the next three elections. Unless his government crashes and burns in its first term (possible but not likely), he will make Ashgrove a fairly safe LNP seat.