Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition
A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Hi Swamprat re 1060
It is sad to live among a people that has very little understanding of or care for their history, traditions or the extraordinary land in which they live.
In the early 1990′s I worked in admin in a Uni faculty of education; several academics were working on new subject curriculums and I noticed one change was to drop the word “history” in favour of something like “texts and traditions”. When I asked why, the answer was that “history” was in effective a politically incorrect term, insufficiently inclusive.
Last month the Age printed an article on the decline of Australian history in schools and Uni’s. I’m afraid I now think of what I was told 20 years ago as the danger of political correctness achieving the opposite of what was intended.
F
by Fil R on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:25 pm
finns
Rosebud?
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Great post swamprat at 1060.
Found myself nodding in agreement with much of what you said.
I find myself becoming more and more disillusioned with this country.
We have become such a nation of whingers, whiners, special interest group with their handout type of place that it sickens and embarrasses me.
This land though is sacred though. I will never be sick of this LAND. It truly is the greatest LAND in the world. We are lucky to be here.
I have never taken a cent from the govt and never will. Never qualified for the home owners grants, don’t have kids so that rules out the baby bonus and have always paid my fair share of taxes. And I never will complain because we are bloody lucky here.
In the great lottery of life we got hit on the arse by a rainbow to live here so I don’t complain and just soak up the balmy summers (well perhaps excluding the last on here in sydney), the mild winters and the glorious food and produce we have here.
I wish the whingers could spend 6 months as the working class in india or China and then they might STFU.
by Henry on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Dear middle man @ 1097
Thank you for your response,
I apologise for still being here after i said i was leaving.
Despite your kind words, I doubt I make sense.
by swamprat on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:26 pm
swampy
sorry
+1
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Gussie, yep. Troubled childhood
by The Finnigans on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm
g
Umm…thanks. I agree with Will Steffan that Greenland is highly likely already irreversible. So, that is 10 metres over probably, millenia. Probably ‘manageable’.
But Antarctica is not yet irreversible. The Siberian carbon is an unknown but looms. Arctic methane, OTOH, is definitely on the move. Not enough yet to provide a significant feedback loop but if that gets going we are goners. Absolute goners. It will be like the last car race in ‘On the beach.’
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:28 pm
The numbers don’t suggest private sector experience is good for career advancement in the ALP…
A significant role in unions seems to help…
by Mod Lib on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:28 pm
That is absolute rubbish, Labor wont do it because of the industry funds superannuation gravy train enjoyed by the union goons, who to their credit can take their goonness and defeat the private sector, but I’m not convince they can beat the capital growth in residential real estate (excluding rental income).
It wouldn’t disadvantage anyone, it might advantage people who have a home and debt and oh my god labor wouldn’t be at all interested in cost of living for people who have debt.
I have such trouble understanding your pov I’m giving up.
It would be a massive vote winner across a pretty good proportion of labor voters if they had the courage to do it. I’m not holding my breath.
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:29 pm
another book every bloody whinger should read is A Fortunate Life by Bert Facey.
by Henry on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Agree, its a classic.
by Mod Lib on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:31 pm
b
ummm ok
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:31 pm
And also there is a proportion of labor voters who may be a little weathier, but they have class and wouldn’t vote against Labor helping out this group.
Libs would probably hate it, it gives ordinary Australians a chance to catchup, maybe get ahead (are you a lib?).
Greens should love it but they are probably too wealthy to actually bother.
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:33 pm
great book.
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:33 pm
WeWantPaul. the super trustee boards of industry funds usually have an equal number, or close to equal number, of employer group representatives. its not only unionists who enjoy that gravy train.
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:33 pm
poroti:
I think Rio only operate a couple of diamond mines worldwide.
But that won’t mean anything to today’s opposition, who will seize any opportunity to bag the govt’s legislative agenda, no matter how untruthful their claims may be.
by confessions on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Henry and Swamprat – well said.
Goodnight all
by BH on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:40 pm
I blames rattus rattus. Apart from declaring the need to win back those that voted for Pauline (and doing so) was the bull shite Cronulla flagged draped jingoism he spawned. He turned ANZAC day into what my GG Uncle loathed and Frank was actually there with his two bros. The fecking people that bullshitted them into hell,pollies, come ANZAC day would strut like banty roosters basking in the “glory” of what they went through.
by poroti on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:40 pm
poroti
didu know the first anzac daywas held in the suez
whatshusface had a memorial for all who were lost
since then the message has been lost
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Abbott on LL: “I think that I am the opposition leader.”
Make of that what you will.
by This little black duck on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:43 pm
gusface,
You’ll be waiting a long time. I reckon I’m even banned from logging on or reading comments there!
by scorpio on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:43 pm
sossman. for me, the question we both have posed, is the end result of the change to the ALP’s supporter base and the falling number of union members. how does it embrace those who support its underlying belief in collectivism and the need to ensure that labour and capital dont become unbalanced, yet are from outside its traditional power and organisational structure? or better still can it embrace them?
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Just looking in the rear view mirror with my rose coloured glasses on
by Dee on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:47 pm
scorps
why sell yourself so low?
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:50 pm
middle man:
Perhaps you need to look at it from a different angle: you’ll never know if you don’t give it a go.
by confessions on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:51 pm
middleman
Well, it depends!
If you’re standing for a non winnable seat, it’s generally yours for the taking. Some of them are literally filled by whoever happens to be walking by the office door on the day.
I was first preselected four days after the election was announced, as the result of a cold call from Head Office, and told that if I didn’t say yes before the end of the phone call, they’d put the name of the one of the HO receptionists on the ballot paper.
I have known people who started in non winnable seats (including this one) using their performance as a basis to then get preselection for a more winnable one (and winning).
Needless to say, it gets harder as the seats get more winnable and thus more important factionally.
However, in Victoria at least, if you win the local ballot it’s very rare for the decision to be overturned by HO.
So it’s possible for a very determined, quality candidate to win preselection for a winnable seat without belonging to a faction (John Thwaites, former Deputy Premier for Vic, is an example) by working the local branches.
But it’s obviously easier if you’ve joined a faction.
I’ve never bothered, because it’s not a winnable seat here, and by now I’ve done enough within the party that I can drum up factional support (from all sides!) if I need to.
But if anyone’s contemplating running for Parliament, this is absolutely the best time to throw your hat into the ring.
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:51 pm
gusface
The message my gg uncle gave me was ‘Lest We Forget” meant always remembering that it was the pollies the churchmen and the royals the generals who sent them to die in a pointless war and to never let them do it again. After Gallipoli the poor bugger was sent to France and an even greater hell.
by poroti on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Evening jerkers, it’s great that Campbell will force Anna’s husband to unravel all that carbon nonsense.
by Generic Person on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Wonder if Cameron has had Rupert over for dinner…
by Henry on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm
poroti
+1 bro
anzac aint about some notion of self sacrifice
it is a warning to never let it happen again
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Giving it a crack and will report back!
Wonder if it’s too late to get preselection for South Brisbane…
by Sossman on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm
heya candles
quiet night at the tarttoria?
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:54 pm
thanks confessions and zoomster. i’m in federal seat of Griffith. factionally important? HA!
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Waaaay back at #7, Tricot asked:
Yes this occurred especially with Keating vs Hewson (particularly pronounced in the second half of 1993, ie after the election) and with Keating vs Downer towards the removal of Downer from the Liberal leadership.
I did a long article about this thing of both leaders being disliked at once at
http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php/article/when-both-leaders-are-loathed-a-polling-dynamics-history
That was in September last year and since then they have both become even more disliked. If you measure mutual dislike of leaders by adding together their net satisfaction ratings, then the third-most-recent Newspoll had the =4th worst score ever.
It may be that neither will break – Labor because another leadership switch would be farcical, the Coalition because their momentum might be damaged if there is infighting.
Semi-seriously, if Rudd and Turnbull decided to both quit their parties, take a few mates with them each, start a new centre party and have a public coin toss or arm wrestle for the leadership, just how much trouble would it have beating Abbott and Gillard from scratch even with no resources to speak of out of sheer public relief at a real alternative? Alas no party structure could be big enough for long for either of their egos let alone both.
by Kevin Bonham on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:55 pm
This bloke on lateline is surely wearing a hair hat…
by Henry on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Oooops
I meant trattoria
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Bahaha… same. We have no chance
by Sossman on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:57 pm
yeah sossman. its far too safe a seat for some private sector chumps to get a look in.
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:58 pm
middleman
I should also add, you are supposed to have been a member for (I think) 18 months before you can nominate.
It’s more honoured in the breach than the observance but you get stubborn people like me who make life difficult for you if you put your name up without qualifying (unless there is no other candidate!)
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 10:59 pm
gusface,
I can get into enough strife here!
by scorpio on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Sossman/middleman
State seats, perhaps? At least to start with!
I would also recommend a stint in council. IF you approach it with right attitude – that is, as a learning experience – you can learn a lot about governance and the problems involved in decision making.
Getting involved in the policy process is also worthwhile (for much the same reasons).
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Sossman:
I nearly nominated for council last year to fill vacancies resulting from several retirements.
Still think I might do it at some time in the future.
by confessions on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:02 pm
kevin
the fly in the ointmnt is bob katter
on a fed level 11% would create a bit of mischief
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:02 pm
yes i imagine there will be a few candidates required for the next state election. i’ma believer that a candidate should at least reside in their electorate. so i’d have to move. Di Farmer is still infront isn’t she??
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:06 pm
I can get into enough strife here!
low hanging fruit, stop being a chook
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:07 pm
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:07 pm
and zoomster i’d be more than happy to do my time.
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:08 pm
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:08 pm
State is what I would be interested in. To be a part of a rebuilding team would be exciting seeing that it really is starting all over from scratch for the ALP. There was some serious deadwood in that old team.
Not sure I’d have the passion for council.
by Sossman on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:09 pm
yeah council is a bit hard to get excited about. although i think my local councillor does a fantastic job.
by middle man on Mar 27, 2012 at 11:12 pm