Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition
A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
That’s the money point.
by Bushfire Bill on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:05 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01dlvbm
Via Kerry O’B & 4Corners, which often runs Panorama investigations? Worth an email to him/ 4Corners site.
If they haven’t been posted already, here are The Guardian’s reports. Panorama goes to air c9.00pm Monday, so AEDST 6.00am Tues. These 2 below are dated 26th March
Questions for News Corp over rival’s collapse Software company NDS allegedly cracked smart card codes of ONdigital, according to evidence to be broadcast on Panorama Resume of the Panorama programme.
Was ONdigital beaten fair and square, or undermined? BSkyB’s short-lived rival struggled for many reasons, including a piracy problem
Pretty much a well condensed “all you wanted to know about” how, why & with what consequences”
The Independent for the next day – 27 March – and M’Harties, hints it might involve USA authorities (awa Italy & Israel)
Scandal spreads to Murdoch TV empire Allegations of corporate espionage in satellite broadcasting may attract unwanted attention from US authorities
This one with comments (also 27 March) James Cusick: From Sicily to the US courts – the trail of evidence could hit Murdoch where it hurts
This one from The Telegraph (dated 10pm GMT Tues/ 7.00am Wed AEDST hints of more to come Murdoch’s Scandal, PBS, preview As the phone hacking scandal continues, this PBS documentary examines the impact it’s having on Rupert Murdoch’s career.
by OzPol Tragic on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm
BB
Globally, 2010 and 2011 were the wettest years on record.
2011 was the wettest Australian year on record. There is no guarantee that a la Nina will be followed by an el Nino. We have just had two la Ninas in a row. While unusal, we could get another one next year.
While el Ninos are globally hotter than la Ninas, each la Nina has been warmer than the previous la Nina.
The difficulty that this creates for farming is in risk management. Higher predictability reduces risk. Lower predictability increases risk. In short, a more volatile year-on-year weather means that the cost of agricultural production will go up. This means that the cost of food will go up. No-one much, globally, would have planted crops on the basis that 2010 and 2011 were going to be the wettest years on record. It would not have made sense to do so then. Now farming sectors have to factor in a more extreme range of possibilities than they would have done previously.
The rural socialist ratbags who are ratting on about Australian food security do not want this to be part of the discussion; they are denialists.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Well it is not as if NDS did not have form. From wikipedia
by poroti on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Zoomster
The other difference between BoF and Newman is that BoF is hardened in internal political politics and knows the motivations of cabinet better than they do. Campbell would have no idea who could white-ant him and what he could do about it.
by bluegreen on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Billie, thanks for the tip. It should be shown on 4 corners, but I don’t like the chances. It must be seen. This is a rare opportunity to nail a lot of lowlifes !
by outside left on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Now here is a job with a history of no applications required:
http://archive.nswbar.asn.au/database/in_brief/inbrief.article.php?i=4089
by shellbell on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Ms Bishop just now implying that we should not be negotiating with the Taliban to get out of Afghanistan with our shirts on.
Now that she has knocked back Mr Oboma’s plan, and hence our plan, I wonder what her plan is?
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Ms Bishop is just talking about ‘the integrity of the process’ and ‘transparency’. But she does not appear to be discussing the process-free LNP from the deep north.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:19 pm
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/04/02/120402fa_fact_collins
Very interesting, and long, article for those with an interest in how the press works to influence its audience. Online article from the upcoming April print edition of the New Yorker.
by Leroy on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Ms Bishop is again expressing ‘…great concerns about the process’. I don’t think that she is talking about Mr Newman but she might be. After all he thinks that we have been processed to death.
So exactly what does the Liberal National Coalition want? More process, some process, no process? It is like their multiple policy disorder. No-one is quite certain exactly what they stand for.
They should just make up their minds.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:24 pm
If nothing else convinces me the ABC are beholden to News Limited it’s this piracy story.
The ABC finally puts up something on the breaking news that’s very pertinent to Australia that the Fin Review posted at Midnight last night.
Almost 16 hours later, at 3.47:03pm (or 15:47:03), there’s a carefully constructed article.
It even says “News Corp has denied promoting piracy or sabotaging the commercial interests of its rivals” although it doesn’t quote a spokesperson or refer to The Australian’s own denial, issued about 2 hours earllier at:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/foxtel-denies-pay-tv-dirty-tricks/story-e6frg996-1226312470663
The ABC should be taken to the cleaners over this, but I won’t hold my breath.
by kezza2 on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Conroy urges probe into News Corp piracy claim
Posted March 28, 2012 15:47:03
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-28/news-piracy-claims-should-be-sent-to-afp-says-conroy/3917880
by kezza2 on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:27 pm
by victoria on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Boerwar the LNP wants process but only where it suits. That’s Politics 101.
by DavidWH on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Just sent this to Four Corners;
Feel free to do the same yourselves guys
by grantplant on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Mr Newman must be able to smell out the talent and bring it along nicely. I imagine that was all the process he needed when he appointed a CEO to run a department with 8900 staff who has no prior experience of running anything like it.
It will be the Newman Monkey see, Monkey Do school of management, I suppose.
It is also a nice kick in the snoot for any exceptional talent that might have been lurking amongst the 8900 also rans. If they stick around they will be wet-nursing (nannying?) a person whose only known qualification for a high level management job is that he went through Mr Campbells’ process.
If they have any sense they will bugger off for greener pastures in the private sector. I mean to say, why would exceptional talent stick around?
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm
The full 27:41 m story
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/03/28/panorama-news-corp-nds
by Leroy on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm
I can just imagine Rupert Murdoch with an eyepatch and a parrot on his shoulder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEBbu-wkKrs
by bluegreen on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm
I feel like we are going in circles here but I will go over it again, I am totally 100% against Tony Abbott’s Parental Leave Scheme and reckon he should drop it because no one cares about that issue anymore because of the Labor minimum wage scheme. I will predict however it will be gone for the 2013 election.
No I don’t support the Malaysian Solution for the following reasons:
1. It has a limit of 800 we can send to the Malaysians which means we are screwed once we get 801 arrival. During Howards Nauru Solution between the announcement of the policy and the actual impact of the policy(in other words the boats stopped) there was a 3 month period with around 1100 illegals. So how the hell does Gillard and Co plan on getting that down to less than 800 over a 4 year period when they haven’t taken into account the “elastic” period?
2. Four Corners would have rocked up in Malaysia with their cameras showing Labors boat kids working the streets of Kuala Lumpar and then we’d have the leftwing brigade screaming what horrible monsters Australia is. Then Labor would have said they would no longer be sending unaccompanied kids… and yep you guessed it… boats packed to the rafters full of unaccompanied kids piloted by some inexperienced 16 year old Indonesian(they get sent straight back to Indo with a slap on the wrist now). And what happens when the boat sinks? Yep leftwing brigade out again telling us what horrible monsters Australia is.
3. One-sided agreement with Malaysia. Now this one is something only Labor could manage to negotiate. WE take 4000 refugee’s from Malaysia(and I do actually believe these are legit refugees, not like our blowins on boats) and we pay the entire cost of them living in Australia. We then send 800 of our boatpeople to Malaysia and guess who pays for them to live in Malaysia…. yep you guessed it… Australia! So we pay for the ones we recieve and the ones we send. But if you read the details it gets worse… because as long as these boatpeople stay in Malaysia we keep paying their bills. That means if they stay there their entire lives, we pay 60 YEARS. Thats no joke… thats in the contract we have with Malaysia.
But I ask the Labor supporters this… what was the policy that Julia Gillard took to the election for boatpeople? What was the policy that Tony Abbott took to the election for boatpeople?
One told a lie and keeps changing their policy and one has had the same policy view from day 1. East Timor is a signatory of the UNHCR convention, so the Liberal ammendments actually COMPLY with Labors 2010 election committment… the problem is Labor just keeps on lying.
I’m just wondering what Labor are going to announce for the 2013 election…. processing on Fiji?
by GeeWizz on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Oh yes and can I say I feel I am being baited
by GeeWizz on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
Hilarious to see NDS, Foxtel, News Corp categorically denying pay-TV piracy allegations. Precisely the same formula as phone hacking denials
by gusface on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:34 pm
one for george methinks
by gusface on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:34 pm
A local story that had already been reported by the BBC, CNN, Reuters(Canada). My suspicion is that they were waiting for News to say something first to get the pitch right because that first ABC News report came out just after them.
by joe2 on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm
When will Labor increase the Newstart allowance by $50, as recommended by the Henry Report and the OECD, so people living in poverty can buy the basic necessities of life?
The Henry Report specifically did not recommend an increase in the superannuation guarantee from 9% to 12%, yet this super increase was just about the only recommendation that Labor adopted.
Labor – the party of “fair-go”?
The poorest, most vulnerable and most disadvantaged in our society would disagree.
The Labor Party – the party that pretends to be the party it is not.
http://www.acoss.org.au/take_action/allowances_statement_2012-02/
http://greens.org.au/content/paltry-newstart-increase-highlights-need-change-0
by Pegasus on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm
gus
I have just passed your suggestion on to george.
by BK on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Finns
And when evidence is provided, they will say it was a rogue lone employee and they didn’t know nuffink about wot woz going on.
by Diogenes on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:38 pm
bk
hopefully it will be in the style of long john silver
by gusface on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:40 pm
How can something be the only recommendation adopted if it was not recommended? Or are you saying the recommended increase was smaller?
by ltep on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:40 pm
P
If only the Greens party could form government, all would be well! It would be particularly good if they could manage it some time in the next half century before the AGW horse has sniffed the methane and buggered off out of the stable completely.
OTOH, as long as they continue to compete with, and slag each other, the Greens party and the Labor Party will continue to do MAD. If only the Labor Party could be as good as the Greens party for the poor! What can they thinking of? BTW, I would suggest that a holier-than-thou tone is particularly effective in persuading others. It gives them a warm, inclusive feeling and certainly promotes cohesion amongst centre-left voters.
Meanwhile, we can just hand over the real game to the planet destroyers.
Enjoy.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Sky manfully continuing with the drones.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:42 pm
joe2
That suspicion is absolutely correct, but doesn’t it ring alarm bells?
To get the pitch right has never stopped the ABC before from reporting breaking news.
So, why wait to get the pitch right? Because they need to be singing from the same songsheet as Rupe!
And that’s what’s wrong with the ABC.
by kezza2 on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:42 pm
I’ll one up you and say it’ll be gone after the election when a ‘black hole’ is discovered.
Again, I’ll one-up you and ask what will be the policy Abbott eventually implements? It certainly won’t be whatever he claims he will implement.
by ltep on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm
But Boierwar they told Hugh they were covering the story! Got quite ‘snarky’ too they did
by grantplant on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm
QLD LNP Party Room Meeting:
http://images.brisbanetimes.com.au/2012/03/28/3170008/Campbell_newman_729-420×0.jpg
QLD Labor Party Room Meeting:
http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2012/03/28/1226312/436221-labor-mps.jpg
Looks like a Scones and Biscuits affair
by GeeWizz on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:44 pm
g
It is a bit sad when you have to give yourself a kick in the arse. Much more fun to kick everyone else’s arse.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:45 pm
GW
I suppose now that they have already been processed to death they won’t have a meeting chair, they won’t have an agenda, they won’t have a policy process and cabinet can just bugger off for wasting Mr Newman’s time.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Peg
I, as one of the great unwashed unemployed appreciate your concerns over the plight of the unemployed.
However, all these calls – from the far right, the right, the left, and far left – for an increase in employment benefits, is purely political and (apart from the compassionate peeps) is all about trying to get the Gillard government to subvert a budget surplus.
by kezza2 on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Good news
Bob Carr’s close friend, John McCarthy SC has not been appointed as Ambassador to the Vatican
http://archive.nswbar.asn.au/database/in_brief/inbrief.article.php?i=4090
by shellbell on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:46 pm
ltep
oops…thank u for pointing that out.
Super increase was a taxation / income support measure that was specifically not recommended by the Henry Report. The increase in Newstart was recommended by the Henry Report.
Despite advice, Labor implemented super increase and ignored just about every recommendation made in the Henry Review.
by Pegasus on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:46 pm
shellbell
If it was Mr Newman’s appointment task, Mr McCarthy would already have been appointed Pope.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm
I’ve heard pundits pointing out that Labor’s polling primary vote at the moment is quite a lot lower than the 39.7% who said they identified with the Labor Party in the ANU’s 2010 Australian Election Survey. This has led me to have a ferret through the AES data on party identification going back to 1987, which has revealed the following (always allowing for the margin of error on these figures):
• Whereas the number of Coalition identifiers has remained steady at around 40% since 1987, Labor’s has dropped from the high forties to the high thirties.
• Since 1990, Labor identifiers voting Greens or Democrats has ranged from 2.4% to 5.2% in quieter years, but spiked three times: to 10.6% in 1990, 7.4% in 2001 and 7.4% in 2010.
• There is no clear trend of Labor identifiers increasingly tending to vote against the party over time. The Labor identifier vote for the Coalition usually ranges between 4.4% to 6.9%, but spiked to 9.4% in 1996 and fell to 2.9% in 2007.
• Apart from 1990, when the figure spiked to 9.6%, Labor identifiers voting for the Democrats never topped 3.6%. The Greens however scored 7.4% in 2010.
by William Bowe on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm
BW
maybe he is being saved for the HC
by shellbell on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm
my email to media watch:
Dear media watch
Today, serious allegations were made against News on piracing both here and in England. Senator Conroy had stated that this matter should be handed over to the AFP for investigations. One can understand that this has not been reported in the Murdoch press but as I write this email at almost 3.30 pm, ABC online has a not a word on it.
Is the ABC under the control of Murdoch? Its worth an investigation from your programme.
by adam abdool on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm
b
????????????
by gusface on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63
@mishaschubert @lyndalcurtis Pyne has issued a partial transcript of the ABC 891 interview which leaves out the child care discussion.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:50 pm
gus
george has started work
by BK on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:50 pm
William
Has the fall from the high forties to the high thirties been accompanied by a growth in Greens identifiers?
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:51 pm
g
Trawl back to one of mine in which Mr Newman is reported to have stated, ‘…we have been processed to death.’ This is in relation to his process-free sacking and hiring of departmental heads.
My implied comment is that there is a double standard whereby Labor processes are always criticised and Mr Newman has got away scot free with giving a mate a job in charge of 8900 people. The mate has no experience running large organisations.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:53 pm
gg
In the old catholic church that would be a lie of ommission. And sinful.
by Boerwar on Mar 28, 2012 at 4:54 pm