Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition
A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
gigi
It will all be too late for the Greens!
For the Greens to one day become a major player in Australian politics, they should aim for two things:
1. First and foremost, that the Labor Party wins and remains in government.
2. To then, and only then, try to win majority support of their values.
So why will it be all too late for the Greens?
Because nobody will still be alive to learn from their chronic loser behaviour from the last time they held balance of power in the Senate
by Centre on Mar 27, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Not to worry.
Apart from Ms Gillard and some of her colleagues, and some relative nonenities in Tasmania and South Australia, the next really big tranches of feather dusters will be conservatives. Given what they are already doing to AGW action and to the planet, they will deserve a brass razoo for their pensions.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 1:59 pm
re bob carr
the next logical step would be GG, not PM
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Oh dear Campbell Newman has just said electricity prices will have to rise by 50%.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:00 pm
I have been thinking about the local impacts of the mining boom.
There are massive local and personal consequence beyond the normally discussed ones.
They are:
1. Fly-in Fly-out dads live an entire life without seeing their children.
2. Divorces from the above.
3. Increase in prostitution. (…someone’s daughter)
4. Increase in alcoholism
5. Increase in local crime rates because of the above.
The ALP could launch an entire program on the basis of dealing with these issues. It would be an amazing conversation starter to support the mining tax/companies are evil debate.
by bluegreen on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Arguably, the two party split of the centre-left vote is ensuring minimalist climate action by Australia governments.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:01 pm
ru
ha
it only took a few days
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:02 pm
ru
Why 50%?
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:02 pm
guytaur
i must admire the trenchant optimism, from dear souls like yourself, victoria and gus, only demonstrated in this place. To suggest that Kevin was holding JG back three days after Saturday is a stunning expression of faith – almost akin the original christian story. if queensland does nothing else it will bring KR back by christmas for a slightly earlier new year election – and that will be the only and only chance for keeping labor alive after the devastation of june 2010. when will labor do its mea culpa. KR of course doesn’t need to do a thing – not even wish it. the dialectic is playing out more pronounced than could have been known, even after challenge from a few weeks ago
by geoffrey on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Tricot a person would need to accumulate around $2 million to set up a 25 year annuity that pays around $150,000 per annum. It’s not an un-generous pension. Also one hopes Anna will live longer than another 25 years which just increases the starting amount.
I have heard many people complain when people in the private sector get payouts in the millions. Just a touch of perspective.
by DavidWH on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Which ties in nicely with
by Dan Gulberry on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:06 pm
b
Not to speak of the national discussion we should be having about holes in the ground and holes in the economy as the resources are exhausted.
We recently visited the archaeological remains Spotted Dog Gold Mine near Mallacoota inlet. It operated 120 years ago. They extracted less than 1,000 ounces but shifted huge amounts of earth by diggings, tailings, races, dam infrastructure, roadways, etc, etc. The forest is well on the way to regrowing except for one thing: for some reason many mature trees in the vicinity of the old workings are dead.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:06 pm
bluegreen – I understand what you are saying but do you by any chance see some of the young Labor pollies on SkyNews. I am mightily impressed with them against their counterparts in the Oppn.
Andrew Leigh is brilliant at making points – scores against all senior and jnr Oppn pollies.
David Bradbury, who I thought was a proper dill when he was elected, is fluent in easily understood grabs and outdoes his Oppn opponents as well.
Mike Kelly, Kate Lundy, and many others absolutely shine.
The PM’s full press conferences have plenty of scope for good and positive news grabs, including when she explains about the ‘carbon tax lie’ but these are rarely seen on news bulletins where most people get their 4 second news grabs.
There must be a reason why the media love Abbott’s ‘toxic govt.’ line more than the positive grabs from the Govt. I just wish they’d be honest enough to share it with us.
I have just been reading http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2012/03/26/Abbott%E2%80%99s-atrophy.aspx
Worth a read and maybe Ad Astra has a point about Abbott being led by fear. Is it fear of failure because he has always been the spoiled child?
by BH on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:07 pm
dan
ha
frippery and flippancy
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:08 pm
It is ridiculously small and two million – levels reporting to CEO who isn’t chair can take home two million bonus each year – let alone the severance package – very silly or ignorant to make out it is big or generous.
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:08 pm
DWH
The obvious solution is to have only one lower house and one upper house government for Australia and to pay the reps accordingly. It would be cheaper and better. Now that the conservatives control many of the states they can all do their real thing for small government and wind themselves up, preferably before their policies and programs speed up too much the process to gaining 400ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:09 pm
If a politician is genuinely retired no problem, but personally I find it troubling and not a good look for Labor that some of its leaders take the money and then still go on to “tout” for $$ as consultants etc. -Hawke, Keating, and Brumby for example. Brumby is even on the same Huawei board as Downer.
Perhaps there should be means testing, if not already?
F
by Fil R on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Boerwar, the Greens must learn to win.
The problem is they can’t learn , won’t learn and don’t know how to learn!
They should have supported the CPRS, they should never have proposed a carbon tax, they should pass the Malaysian solution and they should shut up when it comes to issues that involve $
As it stands they are just one DD off oblivion!
*catch u guys later*
by Centre on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Means tested you guys are insane – you will get failed real estate agents as your mp and still you be underpaying them
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:12 pm
BH
I like Andrew Leigh. He can articulate arguments from first principles. But where was he in the recent two reshuffles.
I think the ALP need a total rethink on where they are going and why. Holding the fort will not be enough.
by bluegreen on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:13 pm
I also note the double standard ‘bad look for labor’ and I know you wouldn’t be complaining about Howard’s massive benefits – pdffft stupid and inconsistent arguments.
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
gus
there is only one
skeleton to see
it is out
in the open
for all to see
only rudd can begin
to clothe it again
by geoffrey on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Thanks victoria and MTBW.
You never know how much of yourself to disclose on Blogs like this, but facts are facts, I guess.
It’s just one of those things. We all feel we’re lords and masters of our own lives and destinies, but something like this snaps you back into reality quick smart, let me tell you. Bit like being hit by a Tsunami, but I don’t plan to harp-on about it. Everyone has their problems.
And yeah, I’m bloody grateful for Medicare. We would have had to sell the house to pay for treatment if I’d been some uninsured Good Old Boy from Arkansas, former barrister or no.
by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Centre @ 466 hear hear
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:15 pm
To pay off debt.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:15 pm
geoffrey
haiku?
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
ru
Oh dear!
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
ruawake
you are just making that up.
by bluegreen on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:17 pm
444 Boerwar
Yes they gnaw at the same bone with the same ferociousness. Hopefully, the stronger one will get the bone, the one with the most teeth.
by gigi on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:19 pm
No I am not, Newman said it today, he is waiting for the report from the regulator before he officially announces it.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:19 pm
I don’t agree with the analysis of the Political Sword article that Mr Abbott is atrophying. There is no clear evidence that he is worse now in his behaviour than in the past. It is same old, same old.
I would add the point that, IMHO, Mr Abbott is borderline narcissist/sociopathic. Such personalities flatline. They do not evolve. In any given set of circumstances/triggers they will continue to behave in the same way.
Finally, the article lacks an analysis of the female in Mr Abbott’s behaviour. This is, IMHO, critical.
In particular, it is interesting to contemplate the relationship of Ms Credlin in Mr Abbott’s behaviour. Is she mother, is she mother’s daughter, is she Madonna, or is she whore? I say this without prejudice to Ms Credlin because this is not about her. It is about repertoire of female caricatures available to Mr Abbott’s worldview. I suggest that these have not evolved either. Given these points, the particular caricature inhabited by Ms Credlin would be instructive. Again, the implication is not that Mr Abbott is atrophying. It is simply that he is not changing or evolving at all because he can’t. He can pick and choose from a set of caricatures, but that is about it.
Beyond that, Mr Abbott’s well-known policy fascination with nannies may well be instructive.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Smithe My very best wishes to you and may the recovery be swift, I have quite a bit to do with cancer through relatives, friends etc and the care is amazing in Australia
BTW My friend who had the liver transplant 2 weeks ago today is doing amazingly well, until they operated they did not know how bad his liver really was, he was a very lucky man. All this was done on Medicare including a private jet to Sydney before the operation
by mari on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Do you have a link?
by bluegreen on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Did Mr Newman promise to increase electricity prices by 50% last week?
What a sneaky lot the conservatives are! It does not really matter what they say when electioneering and promising.
The minute they get in their rich mates are on a roll and the hoi polio can suck hind tit.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Most ex Premiers work tirelessly for their communities in one way or another. They are in great demand for all sorts of work for charities, fundraisers, etc etc, and to a much greater extent than any former MP (or indeed, than a failed CEO).
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:23 pm
WewantPAul re
I’ve been a Labor voter and member since 1976, and happen to think Labor should also set an example and not drool after CEO type packages.
That’s why the Health Services Union is such a disgrace to Labor – the porrer workers have been paying thru’ the nose for officials receiving 300K plus pay while pissing the Union funds up against the wall.
Then there’s the small fact of actually connecting with the average person who might be on struggling 60K a year.
F
by Fil R on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:23 pm
So what does the uber conservative Heritage Foundation think of our nation wrecking socialist worst ever government ? It would seem the opposite of what the Fibs keep bulldusting us with.
http://www.heritage.org/index/country/australia
by poroti on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:23 pm
smithe
I wish you all the best and a speedy and complete recovery.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Campbell is demonstrating his sincere thanks to the voters of Queensland and rewarding them for their good judgement.
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:26 pm
ABC Radio news QLD.
He is saying the increase is already legislated for.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:28 pm
All the best smithe
by poroti on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:29 pm
As a labor voter you should be more concerned with the disparity between the CEOs and your 60k worker and much less concerned about stupidly small payments union officials and MP’s get because for a labor voter you seem to be playing into the libs hands.
by WeWantPaul on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Boerwar 444
No No No. The Greens compete with Labor for the left, just as the Nats compete with the Libs for the right. The greens’ voters preference Labor 80%, and vice versa. Thus, the Greens and Labor are effectively a coalition.
Due to our preferential system, progressive and conservative votes split 50-50, or thereabouts.
It matters not a jot whether the Greens “steal” votes from Labor. All that matters is that the progressive vote total more than 50%. Then, Labor forms either a majority or minority government.
Independents have the exact same effect – Windsor, Oakshott siding with the progressives, Crook and Katter with the conservatives.
The idea of Labor losing its base to the greens is an MSM conspiracy. In single party terms, Labor gains more votes than any other party, including the Liberals. But that is irrelevent.
It’s the 2pp vote only that counts.
by dedalus on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:29 pm
A queensland postr was complaing yesterday about the increase in PT costs under Labor and why that (among other things) made him sad.
What sort of cost increase is a 50% increase in power costs going to reap?
by Greensborough Growler on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:29 pm
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/hajnal-black-guilty-of-financial-breach-20120327-1vvin.html
Poor Hajnal, it is North Korea
by mari on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:30 pm
An announcement of a 50pc rise in electricity price would be an extraordinary broken election promise in a extraordinary short period of time and so far there is nothing in any of the press to confirm this will happen. It will be front page headline if and when it is announced.
by DavidWH on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Somehow it is all ALP fault you wait and see
by mari on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Ru, am surprised it wasnt 100%, cause he can then blame on PM Gillard’s Carbon Tax and Mining Tax.
by The Finnigans on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:31 pm
For some reason, after an electoral wipe-out State or federal, we always seem to get people on her bemoaning the fact that the hated and now humiliated Enemy is entitled to some sort of Parliamentary Super. Everyone does it, Lboth abor and Tory.
And it shits me.
I take they view that any pollie (with a few but notable exceptions) who is prepared to spend years, sometimes decades of their lives serving the public according to their lights in a shit-hole like parliament has boody-well earned their pension. It’s a job, like any other. And it’s not a particularly well paid one.
The exceptions are few: Notable crooks and frauds. And we’ve seen one or two of those on both sides, but not had heaps of them. Think: Askin.
And those same whiners seem to bemoan the fact that no-one can attract decent candidates for office.
Bozhe Moi.
by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:31 pm
What a cop out. He is the government now. He can change the legislation by introducing a new bill.
by Gary on Mar 27, 2012 at 2:32 pm