Crikey



Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Finns

    BW, i can only see Horsey calling Ru a ‘Liar”

    That would be an extreme case, then.

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:33 pm

  2. [ Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 3:36 pm | Permalink
    Latest from David Pembarthy:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/election-rout-could-signal-kevin-rudds-return/story-e6frfhqf-1226310671214

    Good old Pembo.

    As Keating would say: Like dogs returning to their own vomit.

    by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:33 pm

  3. I see Annastacia Palaszczuk has put her hand up for QLD ALP leader, while I know nothing about her and thus couldn’t comment on her quality for the role, I will make my comment on the inevitable “gender tokenism” debate that will inevitably occur and say it’s a good thing that women are frequently seeing themselves as viable candidates for their party’s leadership. I hope to see more of it. On both sides.

    As for the argument that voters don’t like women, more female leaders in the future would decrease such a prejudice.

    Next stop: maybe some leaders who aren’t white?

    by Carey Moore on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:33 pm

  4. Dennis came cheap.

    Failed radio station in debt to celebrities
    Failed Melbourne right-wing talk radio station MTR owed more than $13 million to Sydney-based Macquarie Radio Network when it was abruptly pulled from the air earlier this month, documents filed with the corporate regulator show.
    ...
    In addition to the millions owed to the joint venture partners, MTR also owed far smaller amounts to celebrities, journalists and on-air talent.

    Psychologist Sandy Rea, a regular on station programming boss Steve Price’s breakfast show, was owed $3150, the report, filed following a creditors meeting a fortnight ago, shows.

    Channel Nine’s Robert Penfold is listed as being owed $1350 while Collingwood legend Peter Daicos was owed $3300 through his company Madicol.

    Herald Sun gossip writer Fiona Byrne was owed $840 while columnists Alan Howe and Susie O’Brien were owed $500 and $400 respectively.

    Rita Panahi, a regular on SEN, the sports station run by MTR half-owner Pacific Star Network, is recorded as being owed $750.

    Senior political journalist for The Australian, Dennis Shanahan, was owed $82.50.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/failed-radio-station-in-debt-to-celebrities-20120327-1vvtp.html#ixzz1qIQqWww4

    by Bushfire Bill on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:34 pm

  5. See, if you wait long enough in politics things do turn your way.

    Interestingly, some tory political pundits have made a shift – not widely touted – to the effect that they do recognise their boy Abbott is despised and rejected by most of the Oz electorate.

    Their tune is now, “Look we know he doesn’t appeal to everyone, but if it means getting rid of Gillard then I think you, the Oz electorate, could stomach him.”

    Once they would never had admitted their pin up boy had any issues, but even they have to concede the electorate might need to look beyond Abbott to the “goodies” a conservative government might bring.

    This is a telling shift, as they are starting to get anxious, that despite Abbott’s unrelenting negativity, it is not really getting him closer to the lodge than 18 months ago.

    And make no mistake the Dr No thing is biting.

    In a letter to the editor of the West, today, by one of in-house, tame cat conservative writers the editor often gives a forum to (she seems to have a letter published every second day!), a one Viv Murray says the following:

    “Calling him (Abbott) Dr No, Mr Negative and Mad Monk gets very boring (to her one assumes)……..If Mr Abbott has be negative (the fact she thinks there is some doubt about it speaks volumes) it is because we have had so much bad policy from Labor.

    (And the clincher) Why should the Liberal-National coalition be telling Labor what its future policies will be so far ahead of the next election?”

    The fact of course, that perhaps the Oz electorate might like to see Abbott’s policies seems to have escaped her notice.

    She then finishes with:

    “Until the next election is called it is up to the Opposition to hold the Government to account by criticising poor decisions. If there are lots of poor decisions, there will be lost of negativity towards them, not just from Mr Abbott, but from voters as well.”

    So there you have it from the conservatives play book of policy making.

    For mine, for a one-eyed conservative which this woman is week in and week out, to have to defend Abbott’s negativity in this way shows Labor has at least one winner on him.

    The better policy of course, is to ignore him.

    by Tricot on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:35 pm

  6. BB

    Funniest thing I have read in a long time. Thanks for the laugh!!!

    by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:35 pm

  7. PREMIER Campbell Newman says Anna Bligh’s husband, public servant Greg Withers, will be asked to oversee removal of carbon reduction policies he helped create

    Well aint that spiteful!

    by billie on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:35 pm

  8. Actually the decision rests with the previous Bligh government who delegated authority to QCA on 22 September 2011

    Which is what I stated earlier, the legislation is in effect and Newman will blame Labor.

    by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:36 pm

  9. Is this in Australia’s best interests?

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/us-and-australia-discuss-drone-flights-over-indian-ocean-20120327-1vw10.html

    The United States and Australia are planning a major expansion of military ties, including possible drone flights from a coral atoll in the Indian Ocean and increased US naval access to Australian ports, as the Pentagon looks to shift its forces closer to Southeast Asia, officials from both countries said.

    The moves, which are under discussion but have drawn strong interest from both sides, would come on top of an agreement announced by President Obama and Prime Minister Julia Gillard in November to deploy up to 2500 US Marines to Darwin, on Australia's northern coast.

    by Pegasus on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:38 pm

  10. ruawake implied i was a liar.

    I did? If I thought you were I liar I would not imply it.

    by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:38 pm

  11. DavidWH, even you would surely admit that 50% is a big jump. Little wonder he did not talk about this before the election. What an extraordinary betrayal of trust. And so soon.

    by joe2 on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:38 pm

  12. BB

    Did Mr Bolt feature in the debtors list? Or was he prudent in terms of demanding his payments upfront?

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:39 pm

  13. ruawake implied i was a liar.

    Now that does require a “PLEASE EXPLAIN”

    by The Finnigans on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:40 pm

  14. Alliances and coalitions. And gerrymanders.

    People should look up the australian electoral commision 2010 federal election results. Primary votes: ALP 37.99%, Liberal 30.46% Greens 11.76% LNP Qld 9.12% Nationals 3.73% Informal 5.55% All others 1.39%

    Progressives: 49.75 Conservatives: 43.31 Informal 5.55% All others 1.39%

    Those “others” include Cruikshank, Wilkie and Windsor.

    2pp ALP 50.12 LNP 49.88

    Total seats won: ALP 72, Liberal 44, LNP Qld 21, Nats 7, Greens 1, Country Liberals 1, Independents 4

    Progressives: 76 seats Conservatives 74 seats

    Nats polled one third the votes of the Greens, and won 7 times the seats.

    Now, to the charge that ALP needs minor preferences to form Govt. This is true. The truth is also that the LNP need minor preferences to form Govt.

    Get this: from 2010 federal election.

    64 seats were won by first preference vote. Alp 24, LNP 39, Independent 1

    The ALP won 48 seats after going to preferences.
    The LNP won 32 seats after going to preferences.

    Facts dispel fiction, but unfortunetaly they do not dispel myths.

    by dedalus on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:40 pm

  15. SHY obvious non sequitur:

    “The UNHCR says if protection conditions are improved in transit countries and people are provided with safety, they won’t need to risk their lives on boats to try reaching Australia.

    “The Greens repeat our call for Australia to lift its humanitarian intake to 20-25,000 people a year and resettle more people directly from Malaysia and Indonesia to undercut asylum seekers’ reliance on people smugglers.

    What does the 2nd paragraph have to do with the first? SHY has quoted the UNHCR as talking about improving conditions in transit countries.

    I’m assuming there’s an implied “if we take more refugees from transit countries that will ‘improve’ the transit countries”, which doesn’t – to my mind – make any sense whatsoever.

    And it’s also my biggest gripe with the Greens’ position on the Malaysia arrangement – it represented the single biggest opportunity for improving the lot of asylum seekers in Malaysia that Australia could facilitate.

    I don’t particularly want to enter another round of ALP bashing over the “evils” of the Malaysia deal, but Pegasus does quote SHY at us and I’m not going to let that go unchallenged.

    by Jackol on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:41 pm

  16. Pegasus:

    I did this even though I was a Greens supporter knowing that the Greens Party had IR policies that were more in the interests of the workers than were Labor’s policies.

    And yet you preference the Liberal Party above the Labor Party and would again? What?

    Too many cognitive disconnects going on there.

    by Fiz on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:41 pm

  17. Is this in Australia’s best interests?

    Horsey, NO

    by The Finnigans on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:41 pm

  18. Funny thing is when Abbott is PM, the attitude of the Coalition and its hacks will go from “it’s the opposition’s job to oppose.” to “the government was elected to govern. Stop opposing us and being negative!”

    by Carey Moore on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  19. Tricot @ 294

    By the way Peg I happen to agree with you.

    Thank you for that.

    At some point a more formal association will need to be forged. This probably won’t happen if and until or when, Labor gets defeated at the polls. Too many in Labor still living not recognising the post industrial era we now live in.

    Unfortunately, this is the conclusion i have also reached.

    by Pegasus on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  20. there are some posters here who resort to juvenille behaviour

    wtf does a persons financial matters matter

    a continuing decline into dross and drivel by a once eadable poster

    more like a farting spark than a wildfire

    :(

    by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  21. gordongraham Briggs on #abcnews24 ... against Abbott on foreign investment, PPL, IR, car subsidies and the MDB ... Probably a number of other things too
    2 minutes ago

    by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  22. 50% increase in power prices is because of:

    1. Anna Bligh’s incompetence

    2. Julia Gillards carbon tax

    by GeeWizz on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  23. http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/russian-pm-vladimir-putin-to-visit-israel-in-june-1.420873

    Russian PM Vladimir Putin to visit Israel in June
    Israel is expected to be Putin's second foreign destination after he is inaugurated on May 7.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/03/inside-rick-santorums-alternate-reality/255057/

    Inside Rick Santorum's Alternate Reality
    MAR 26 2012, 4:13 PM ET 25
    Everyone is telling the Republican presidential candidate the contest is over and he can't win it. But he's not going anywhere anytime soon.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/mar/26/news-corp-ondigital-paytv-panorama

    Questions for News Corp over rival's collapse
    Software company NDS allegedly cracked smart card codes of ONdigital, according to evidence to be broadcast on Panorama
    David Leigh
    guardian.co.uk, Monday 26 March 2012 22.23 BST

    by Leroy on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  24. Fiz

    And yet you preference the Liberal Party above the Labor Party and would again? What?

    I have never preferenced Liberals above Labor in a Federal election and would never do so.

    by Pegasus on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:44 pm

  25. 50% increase in power prices is because of:

    Truthie, in the immortal words of Tony Abbott: The power price is now Newman’s problem

    by The Finnigans on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:44 pm

  26. eadable being of course shorthand for readable among us 6.5 star bisons

    by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:44 pm

  27. Newliar, GeeWizz, ‘new-man-liar’ and you know it.

    by joe2 on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:46 pm

  28. I’m with Finns on the policy of opposing increased peace time* interlocking of US/Australian militaries. Quite simply, it reduces our sovereignity.

    Come to think of it, where is the public discussion on the policy aspects of the status of forces agreement?

    *’Peace’ time if you count our Afghanistan adventurism as being more like a squabble over the opium trade.

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:47 pm

  29. wizzer

    You can’t blame the carbon tax, Campbell needs the $365 million it pays him.

    by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:48 pm

  30. Miracle Man had better start fixing that economy with plans other than cranking the energy COL by 50%.

    What a whacker.

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:48 pm

  31. In my quest to make sure the oration is authentic, and not just satire, I went to:

    http://greensmps.org.au/

    …which is the truly ruly website for Green MPs.

    And yes, there’s a link on the front page to the oration (it comes up in the feature box, which scrolls through a number of different topics, so you may have to wait for a few minutes for it to flash up) to:

    http://greensmps.org.au/content/news-stories/bob-brown-delivers-3rd-annual-green-oration

    So it’s real, all right.

    Some snippets:

    Surely some people-like animals have evolved elsewhere. Surely we are not, in this crowded reality of countless other similar planets, the only thinking beings to have turned up. Most unlikely! So why isn't life out there contacting us? Why aren't the intergalactic phones ringing?

    Here is one sobering possibility for our isolation: maybe life has often evolved to intelligence on other planets with biospheres and every time that intelligence, when it became able to alter its environment, did so with catastrophic consequences. Maybe we have had many predecessors in the Cosmos but all have brought about their own downfall.

    That's why they are not communicating with Earth. They have extincted themselves. They have come and gone. And now it's our turn.

    Recently, when I got back to bed at Liffey after ruminating under the stars for hours on this question, Paul enquired, 'did you see a comet?' 'Yes', I replied, 'and it is called 'Global Democracy'.

    It may be that the Earth's biosphere cannot tolerate ten billion of us big consuming mammals later this century. Or it may be that, given adroit and agreeable global management, it can. It's up to us.

    Once more the answer lies between the poles: between the narrow interests of the mega-rich and a surrender to the nihilist idea that the planet would be better off without us.

    It will be global democracy's challenge to find the equator between those poles, and it is that equator which the Greens are best placed to reach

    And lastly, eternity. Eternity is for as long as we could be. It means beyond our own experience. It also means 'forever', if there is no inevitable end to life. Let's take the idea of eternity and make it our own business.

    It’s all very florid and over blown rhetoric.

    by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:49 pm

  32. Regardless of what the recommendation on power prices is, it’s Campbell Newman’s call as to what the actual increase will be.

    If he campaigned so strongly on “cost of living” then he deserves to lose some paint over any significant increase in charges that he has control over. Live by the sword etc.

    I note that there is probably a fair amount of expectation management (ie spin) occurring here – a leak about the largest possible increase “50%!”, which Campbell Newman can then undercut in terms of actual increase so people think “Oh that’s not so bad”. It’s still spin and still worthy of criticism if he has just been hammering CoL in the election campaign and follows through with a significant increase.

    But still, he hasn’t done anything yet, so it’s a bit silly to be going on about hypothetical price rises at this point.

    by Jackol on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:50 pm

  33. dave
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 4:11 pm | Permalink
    Hajnal must be close to being certifiable.

    The leg extension caper convinced me.

    All pretty sad really.

    Fear not dave. She’ll no doubt have them extended-out to the stilt-size by the time she fronts the High Court on Special Leave to Appeal day. Doubtless it will be a short hearing.

    Still, it would be worth paying good money to view the spectacle of something resembling an an 8 foot-tall brolga stepping up to the Bar Table.

    by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:50 pm

  34. The way to make a 30% price increase “palatable” is to threaten a 50% increase.

    by This little black duck on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:51 pm

  35. Of course, Newman’s government will continue with the tradition honoured by both side of politics, of opening the books and “discovering” the state of things are far worse than expected. This “tradition” as well as the accompanying honeymoon period will shield them from any criticism of anything bad happening under them as just a hangover from the previous government, as well as give them elbow room to revise their pre-election promises.

    by Carey Moore on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  36. The more the Queensland electricity prices rise now the less will be the proportionate impact of the carbon price.

    by BK on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  37. Some unhappy campers:

    2m Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    Also, some Libs reckon the Nats, the junior partners of the coalition get too much say in directing Liberal/Nat coalition policy/direction.

    3m Tom Kelly Tom Kelly @tpwkelly
    Abbott says he’s committed to reducing the threshold for scrutiny on foreign investment. #auspol #gippsnews
    Retweeted by Latika Bourke

    3m Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    Liberal MP Jamie Briggs says there are differences within the coalition on the need to revise Foreign Investment threshold for FIRB review.

    4m Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    Lotsa Libs share Jamie Briggs’ frustrations – they say it’s unfair Nats can ‘freelance’ and they have to be disciplined ie. shut up.

    5m Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    Liberal MP Jamie Briggs says senior frontbenchers ‘freelancing’ before party has agreed position is messy and ill – disciplined. #ABCNews24

    6m Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    Liberal MP Jamie Briggs was asked about Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce’s proposal to reduce the Foreign Investment threshold for FIRB.

    6m Latika Bourke Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    Liberal MP Jamie Briggs says it’s disappointing when ‘very senior members of the party freelance’ on issues before position is made.

    by B.C. on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  38. P and T

    At some point a more formal association will need to be forged. This probably won’t happen if and until or when, Labor gets defeated at the polls. Too many in Labor still living not recognising the post industrial era we now live in.

    One of the preconditions for centre-left organisational sanity is the Labor continues to enjoy the fruits of opposition. I am guessing, but my view is that that will take 10-20 years to sink in.

    Of course another precondition for centre-left organisationals sanity is for the Greens party to notice that the planet will continue to go to hell in a handbasket while they compete with their centre-left party partners rather than co-operate structurally to destroy the conservative rightists who are busy cooking the planet as we write. I imagine that will also take 10-20 years to sink in.

    The only real problem with the 10-20 year scenario is that we will have passed through 400ppm during that time span. We don’t actually have the time that the centre-left protagonists appear to believe that we have.

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:52 pm

  39. QLD Labor = The shadow kitchen cabinet with a few guests over for dinner.

    by rummel on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  40. Sossman
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink
    PREMIER Campbell Newman says Anna Bligh’s husband, public servant Greg Withers, will be asked to oversee removal of carbon reduction policies he helped create

    The only thing worse than a sore loser is a sore and spiteful winner.

    Yes. This stinks of both hubris and spite.

    I hope Hubby has the financial security and style to tell him where to shove it and perhaps recommend ex-Senator Flow or one the Bjelke Petersen clan, or maybe a real LNP stalwart like Bill O’Chee, for the chainsaw job.

    by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:54 pm

  41. Bob Brown wants an Earth Govt. Maybe the tin foilers were correct.

    I guess earthers is better than friends.

    by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:54 pm

  42. GeeWizz

    Orrrrrrrr. From November 2009. Their Nov 2011 estimate is 42%, close to ruas 50%.

    Queensland
    • Queensland residential electricity prices are forecast to increase by 32% in nominal
    terms between 2009/10 and 2012/13.
    Drivers of Queensland price movements
    • 49% of the forecast increase is due to increases in distribution costs, driven by
    increases in maximum demand and consumption, higher rates of return following the
    Global Financial Crisis, and increases in the cost of land and materials.
    • 24% of the forecast increase is due to wholesale costs due to an expected tightening
    in the supply/demand balance, while 11% is due to retail costs..

    http://www.aemc.gov.au/Media/docs/Information%20sheet-9110c5bf-385f-4ed4-8642-f9569133e97e-0.pdf

    by poroti on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  43. Kerry Packer said there was nothing there after being “death” for 10mins. James Cameron said there’s nothing there at the deepest ocean

    by The Finnigans on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  44. r
    You talkin’ Clive?

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  45. And just to follow up on 712. Would the coalition ever win an election without the outrageous rural electorate gerrymander? And what does it say about country people that they will vote for a flake like katter, who wins them so little, and disparage canny politicians like Windsor, who win them so much?

    And why have country towns been dying, and the bush going bust? Why do these good honest trusting folk vote in 7 national MP’s who end up doing so very little for their interests? Why do they vote for those who are opposing the NBN rollout, one of the few bright rays of hope for regional Australia?

    Questions to be answered, my bushie friends.

    by dedalus on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:56 pm

  46. d
    One reason is that lots of your bushie friends would have cherish values over their hip pockets. In other words, they would rather be a bit poorer as long as it means that gays can’t marry one another.

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:58 pm

  47. PREMIER Campbell Newman says Anna Bligh’s husband, public servant Greg Withers, will be asked to oversee removal of carbon reduction policies he helped create

    The only thing worse than a sore loser is a sore and spiteful winner.

    Doesn’t it stand to reason that public servants are at the bidding of the government of the day? If they can’t act in the service of the government they have every right to resign. I don’t see any ‘spite’ in requiring public servants to do their job.

    by ltep on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:58 pm

  48. Itep
    Yep.

    by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm

  49. QCA will report electricity pricing with and without the CPS element so it should be easy to determine the CPS impact.

    by DavidWH on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm

  50. And for something a bit more dispassionate from the current Economist:

    In a generally up-beat article about JG under the heading: “Your Tax or Mine?” – “Lucky Julia chalks up another political victory”, the writer concludes as follows:

    “While they argue, (here referring to Forrest, Barnett and the Big Miners)……..Ms Gillard seems to be the biggest political winner.

    “Five months ago she won parliamentary approval for a plan to price carbon, another idea Mr Rudd proposed and then mismanaged………….”

    “These victories have strengthened her authority and, for the moment, defied critics’ predictions of her imminent demise.”

    We would never see this kind of analysis in the Oz media, and, of course, not many read the Economist either I would have thought.

    Looking at the current Newspoll would not give this flavour either, but then, I see nearly all reference to it has all be disappeared from on-line news.

    However, from the hurly-burly of day to day politics from outside, the above seems a fair and balanced view of events I would have thought.

    by Tricot on Mar 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm

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