Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition
A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Hi Tricot re 791
Where is the 8% vote Labor needs for continued governance?
Simply and simplistically, it is with the Opposition. Labor has to work out how to get back those voters who deserted it, first in early 2010 to both the left and right, over the postponement of the ETS, and second those who went mostly to the right in early 2011 over the perceived broken promise about a carbon tax.
Taking 8% off the Greens wouldn’t achieve much, and I support the point that Labor still needs to work with the Greens fairly and strategically, without being seen to become beholden.
What the strategy is, that would bring back that 8% is whole other debate…
F
by Fil R on Mar 27, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Just popped in here briefly,
MBTW,
Thank you for your supportive comments.
If we were neighbours, I would gladly stand shoulder to shoulder with you on a mutual campaign of interest.
by Pegasus on Mar 27, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Tricot @791
Part of the problem is that the Greens have more incentive to tear Labor down than they have to attack the Liberals – or than Labor has to praise the Greens.
Part of this, ironically enough, comes from the Greens’ policies on donations.
Although – in the light of that major private donation before the last election – they’ve furiously rewritten their policy so that they can accept donations if they’re ‘pure’ enough, the Greens are still heavily reliant on the payment-per-vote as their main means of financing their operations.
In other words, Labor can be a bit sanguine about people who vote Greens first and Labor second. It’s only a couple of bucks, after all, and the vote comes back to them, so why worry?
But for the Greens, if they don’t get that primary, they get nothing.
As a Labor candidate, I once drove two hours across the electorate to support a Greens organised walk in support of climate change action. Myself and my young son marched with them. Of course, the local member was a no show.
I was given an opportunity to speak, which was nice, and was followed by the Greens candidate.
Instead of presenting a united front against the sitting Liberal member – as I had, in my speech – she devoted her speech to bagging Labor out. There was no acknowledgement or gratitude expressed for my support.
Purely political (I actually know the candidate well personally).
Ironically, my son was so infuriated by the rudeness of this that he came home vowing he’d never vote Green!
That’s one example – anecdotal, I know – of the problem.
She needed the primaries, so she couldn’t give me an inch. I didn’t, which weakened me.
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Roy Orbison
Off topic but I saw your post last night re Hillsdale Matraville etc. Amazed at the number units you quoted for the Post Office site at Matraville.
I grew up on Bunnerong Road Opposite GMH.
by MTBW on Mar 27, 2012 at 6:56 pm
I wonder how many Green-leaning voters in those inner-city seats saw Bob Brown’s earth song duet and listened to his Earthians speech. I wonder whether seeing that footage would raise some interesting questions for them.
by Fiz on Mar 27, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Peg
You are welcome!
by MTBW on Mar 27, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Has this been posted? Classic psychopathic behaviour by an organisation.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-27/news-corp-accused-of-hacking-rival-company/3914764
by Diogenes on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:00 pm
z
Um, because when Labor loses one second preference in five, presumably to the conservatives, every 10% of the primary vote that switches from Labor to the Green causes a 2% bleed in the overall 2PP for Labor.
That alone would be enough to settle most elections in favour of conservative rightists.
This business of having two competing, squabbling centre-left parties is the gift which keeps on giving to planet destroying, society-splitting, rich mates clubs.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Good to see Queensland Laborites picking themselves off the floor to start fighting back:
Link to facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/events/397768536902684/
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Dio
Yep. But it certainly deserves another run.
F,B,F&Co are going to sue Mr Roo for theft of intellectual property. Every little earner we have ever dreamed of has been creamed by those guys. It is a crying shame.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Boer
I did make it clear I was talking about ‘Greens first, Labor second’ voters.
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:03 pm
MTBW:
I sit in the Lindsay Tanner camp when it comes to the Greens:
by Fiz on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Dawd. It sounds like Karl Sagan meets Twelve Monkeys.
Did Terry Gilliam get a look-in with the script.
by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Fiz
Mr Tanner is a symptom of the problem. He is nowhere near a solution. He is a tacit supporter of the notion that it is better for the centre-left parties to die in a ditch fighting each other while conservative rightards wreck the planet.
Get real, Mr Tanner!
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:05 pm
z
Yep. I accept your clarification.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Is that right?
Blimey, who’d have thunk it!
I couldn’t believe any centre-left combatants could call each other something like that!
I can think of a few other things though!
by scorpio on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:06 pm
zoomster
I really enjoy the way your posts provide insights into the reality of local politics. Thank you for hanging in !
by lizzie on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:06 pm
I wouldn’t necessarily say that’s true. Bob Brown certainly spends a lot of the time attacking Abbott and the Liberals, sometimes making the point better than Labor ministers. In fact I’d say over the current term the Greens have been too close to Labor, with government accountability the victim.
by ltep on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:07 pm
The WA Greens may have an image problem with the Green-Liberal union.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:08 pm
ltep
Didn’t Brown say Abbott had out greened the Greens?
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:09 pm
This was Jamie Briggs. I can’t watch him. Lyndal Curtis allowed him free rein to diss Labor as untrustworthy liars, but as soon as the Labor senator tried to speak, it was the usual talkover, laugh/snigger, interrupt.
More than annoying. Typical arrogant Lib behaviour.
by lizzie on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:12 pm
ruawake, that was a particularly moronic comment, but if I recall correctly, it was prior to the last election. There’s been a marked change in behaviour since the formation of the minority government.
That being said, I’m not a fan of Bob Brown. Megalomanic would be quite a fitting descriptor.
by ltep on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Labor candidates will be much tempted in future campaigns to play Bob Brown’s words as a warning.
by CTar1 on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Briggs is a natural!
by BK on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:14 pm
F,B,F&Co have decided to start a new centre-left Front Party. It will seek to occupy an ideological policy niche situation between the Labor Party and the Greens party. Since we will have to have enough members to register the party, all F,B,F&Co employees who register as members will (a) get a complete refund of their registration fee, (b) receive an efficiency bonus and (c) receive a meritorious service wall plaque. Our new Party will be called ‘The One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party’. This is to ensure that we don’t have a lot of spurious claims from the Labor Party that it is the real centre-left party and from the Greens party that they are one true centre-left party.
Its main function will be to cause endless disputes between itself and Labor on the one hand and the Greens on the other over anything and everything. We will probably mine Bludger for useful argument starting points.
Thereby we will enhance the Party’s objective of ensuring that the right sort of governments rule Australia at all levels. These would be the governments which have, as an underlying philosophical leaning, ‘Greed is good with a heart of gold’ and ‘Cook the Planet.’
Naturally we will be running a few third party media campaigns on behalf of our true friends and slinging the odd campaign contributions through various channels to the rich and deserving.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Fiz
I read the quote and fair enough. I am not a big supporter of the Greens either however in the circumstances we are in we do need them to keep Government.
I just think that everyone is entitled to join whatever Party aligns with their view of the world. Differ on opinions and discuss issues passionately but derision is not appropriate in my view.
I come from a Labor family which goes back generations.
I married someone whose family was Liberal voting and my daughter’s godfather is a close friend of mine who joined the Liberal Party. He and I worked at the same polling booth in 1975 standing on opposite sides of the same gate each handing out for our own party and we both acted as scrutineers for our own party.
His wife and my husband looked after our kids at my house till we finished at 1am the next morning.
Live and let live is all I am saying.
His wife
by MTBW on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:17 pm
I disagree about your conclusions regarding Lindsay Tanner. He is the person Labor most badly needs right now and would have made a very good leader in mho.
Tanner was obviously part of the gang of four but was clearly the most intelligent of the group. He has always been an innovator and has written many tomes and papers on policy.
If he had been listened to a bit more he would not have resigned. a real waste of talent for sure.
by Mike Patton on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:18 pm
A natural what, BK?
by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Boerwar
You will have to beat the Daily Telegraph Party
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:21 pm
I have a few choice ones stored up
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:21 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/mar/27/tory-donor-climate-sceptic-thinktank?CMP=twt_fd
An expose of one of PM Cameron’s little climate sceptic friends.
by lizzie on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:21 pm
MP
Like yourself, I admire Mr Tanner. I always have. Individuals may have many, many good talents and worthwhile skills and experience. But when he can’t see that one of the reasons there is a crisis in the centre-left vote is the squabbling competition between the Greens party AND the Labor Party, then he is a symptom of an acute and pressing challenge; not a solution.
Labor people looking backwards, and Greens people dreaming forwards, are not going to cut it.
We need to address today’s reality today. Together.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Lindsay Tanner should have retired to rural Victoria in about 2001.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:23 pm
I listened to ch 10 and Hugh R who is travelling with the PM , he gave a very fair appraisal of what’s happening in Seoul and quite praiseworthy of Julia G and passed the comment one thing ALP has going for it is Tony Abbott who is even more unpopular than JG, about the only media outlet who has brought that up, don’t listen to the other news, did anyone else? Bit different to the grub effort by SMH
by mari on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:27 pm
rua
I don’t think you understand. The One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party is on the same side as the Daily Telegraph Party. The main function of the One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party is to cause barren and pointless ideological flame wars between the Labor Party and the Greens party, thereby exhausting them before they even begin to fight their enemies. They do make it easy, by the way.
Naturally we will do most of our campaing advertising in the Daily Telegraph and through paid commentary by way of the shock jock industry.
The main point to remember is that The One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party is running a spoiler campaign for greed is good with a heart of gold.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Dunno Boerwar.
After the “earthers speech” it sounds to me like they might just be looking upwards, while listening to that old Carpenters number: ‘Calling occupants of interplanetary craft…calling occupants”
Odd. Really, really odd.
I wonder, did BB have a bottle or two of Mrs Johnson’s elderberry wine under his belt at the time?
by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Mike
Mike, Lindsay had already lost one family through divorce which he blamed squarely on long hours & abscences because of his political career. He said that he was well on the way to losing another family if he remained in the political sphere.
That is why he left politics. Had nothing to do with not being listened to.
by Dee on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:29 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-27/asylum-seekers-turned-off-27toxic27-australia/3915842
Inspite of the figures, Scott Morrison still lugging his exaggerations.
by lizzie on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:30 pm
lugging = plugging
by lizzie on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:30 pm
mari
Appreciate feedback re Channel 10. I watched Daily show and The Colbert Report tonight. Gave local news a wide berth.
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Dee
Tanner made this clear many times on Melbourne Radio before he officially quit that he was giving it away because of his young family
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Good news, chocoholics (but only the dark stuff).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-27/study-finds-chocolate-helps-lower-cholesterol/3915650
by lizzie on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:34 pm
l
My cholesterol should be very, very low.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
smithe
You can imagine writing the speech, in the comfort of your own home.
You can imagining delivering it, to a room filled with adoring supporters (& I don’t know any party which idolises its leader the way the Greens do theirs…)
But can you imagine posting it prominently on your website?
by zoomster on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
MTBW:
I have no problem with whatever party people want to join either. Heck, I spent the first 12 years of my life helping my dad hand out National Party HTV cards and my family is made up of all shades of the political spectrum. Lively political debate was a staple around our kitchen table. We learnt early on to have reasoning and argument to support our positions and inconsistencies were pounced on. I suppose that environment that has had a lasting affect on me.
This is a political blog. We all come here with a political position and it is a lesson in persuasive language to see people from all sides argue their cause. I really see nothing wrong with questioning perceived inconsistencies and don’t see that as derision, I see it as debating.
by Fiz on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Scott Morrison is pushing a smelly thing uphill.
Senator Hanson-Young may do well to meditate on this statistic.
by ruawake on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:36 pm
by victoria on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:37 pm
The One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party has issued a press release deploring the constant derision that is being derided by the Greens party people at the Labor Party people and vice versa.
It wishes to remind the deriders that they are usurping the rightful role of the Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party. This Party really knows everything about the centre-left voter’s true desires, has the only correct policies, and knows what is right and good for the long-suffering planet and the long-suffering masses.
The press release ends with the leader-elect of One and Only True Centre of the Centre-Left Party calling on the squabbling children of the centre-left to stop it at once coz their puny and disunited cries might momentarily distract the conservative rightards from their ruling endeavours aimed at cooking the planet.
by Boerwar on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:46 pm
b
i am running my own vendetta agin a few so called lefty’s
so, with respect, stfu
by gusface on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:48 pm
No way. It’s more of a consenting adults, behind-closed doors sort of thing.
Sort of like Howie playing dress-ups in WW2 Military Garb and having mock conversations with Churchill, Menzies and General Blamey about how we’re gonna win the war and beat The Jap to a bloody pulp.
by smithe on Mar 27, 2012 at 7:48 pm