Morgan face-to-face: 55-45 to Coalition
Morgan has published its results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling, showing Labor and the Coalition both down half a point on the primary vote, to 36.5% and 45% respectively, with the Greens up two to 12.5%. The headline respondent-allocated preference figure is up from 54-46 to 55-45, but as always with Morgan this is heavily at odds with the 51.5-48.5 result using the industry standard measure of preferences as per the result of the last election. Also as always, it needs to be remembered that the primary vote figures in Morgan’s face-to-face polling are biased to Labor: at the four elections since 2001 Labor’s primary vote has been overstated by an average of 3.7% and Coalition’s understated by 3.6%, although it was less pronounced in 2010 (1.9% and 2.0%).
Morgan has also published phone poll results of state voting intention for New South Wales and Victoria from small samples (479 and 408 respectively), though not as small as some Morgan have passed off in the past. As with other polls, it shows the O’Farrell government holding its ground since the election on the primary vote, on which it leads 49% to 24.5% (51.2% to 25.6% at the election) with the Greens on 13% (10.3%). This time though, Morgan has produced a quirky respondent-allocated preference split which favours Labor: the LNP leads 58.5-41.5 on their published figure, but on 2011 election preferences it would be 64-46, just as it was at the election. Both New South Wales and Victorian results come with figures for leaders’ personal ratings, for what they are worth.
The Victorian figures have the Coalition at 45.5% against 44.8% at the election, Labor at 35.5% against 36.2% and the Greens at 12.5% against 11.2%. This pans out to 53-47 on Morgan’s published preferences figure, or 52-48 using the previous-election method. There was also the matter of Saturday’s Niddrie by-election, which was very easy to overlook because of events in Queensland and the no-show by the Liberals. Labor’s Ben Carroll polled 46.8% compared with Rob Hulls’ 45.7% at the election, with the remainder scattered very evenly among the other eight candidates. The VEC conducted a notional two-party count between Labor and the Greens which had the margin 20.7%, but the Greens actually finished third some distance behind independent Andrea Surace. Preferences were only distributed to the stage where Labor secured a majority, so no two-candidate preferred margin is available (UPDATE: Lenxyz in comments points out I wasn’t looking hard enough: a full preference count shows Carroll with 18371 to 8967 for Surace for a 2PP of 67-33).