Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Brian Mc@1087
The OED gives a few definitions of “hack” but the one I like here is “common drudge” also attributed as a “writer” = hack.
Another is a “horse let out for hire” but while I am tempted to ascribe that to some here, it is the first definition that relates to “conservative hack” and possibly “union hack” as the conservative “hack’ would have it, if you see what I mean.
Pretty well sums up their contributions here – apart from a few exceptions
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:03 pm
http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/article/13321109/casino-allegations-referred-to-police/
Ha. BOF boffed.
His halo is definitely slipping.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:04 pm
smithe,
This is a set up. Let it run its course.
Labor should keep well away until something of substance emerges.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:06 pm
GG Agreed but I am not an optimist right now. We are all getting cheaper pharmaceuticals but that is already forgotten after two days and was taken for granted. Do you really think the compensation package will be gratefully accepted by the public. They will pocket the money and be whingeing a month later about cost of living pressures.
I just don’t think it’s about policy at all but who the messenger is and how sincerely it’s being delivered. I am still sure things will get very close in the end but I just cannot see it with the PM or the pretender KR but we have some real talent waiting to be unleashed and therefore I still expect us to win next year especially given Ted and Barry’s soporific leadership in Vic and NSW.
by Mike Patton on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:06 pm
GG
Labor has been amazingly quiet on this. Not like the Coalition with Craig Thomson.
Still early days. We may yet hear from Labor.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:09 pm
mari
My “Mari Hallelijah” confidence level has reached 0.999995. That’s out of 1.000000 by the way.
Here is my school chapel choir having a sing. They put out the most amazing L.P. in the 1970′s of Handel’s Messiah. Recorded in the school chapel even this young athiest thought it WOW.
Here the chapel http://www.flickr.com/photos/digitalsublime/5591535701/
Here the choir http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHq2Y_Rx8Ic
by poroti on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Mike
Understand your angst, but hold your nerve.
The next election will be fought on the economy, leadership, employment and some X factor that is not apparent at this time.
Polls in March 2012 will be long forgotten apart from being a benchmark on how far the variation.
Personally, I’m not fussed. I believe Abbott is a loser and that in the end good policy will win out. If I’m wrong I can live with going down.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Mike@1103
Who is coming to “save” Labor “down the track”.
I would be pleased if you could outline why you think JG can’t win.
Who might?
When should the salvation take place?
What policy changes do you envisage?
What will the new leaders cabinet look like?
What will he/she do with JG?
What narrative will be developed? What, we lost our way once, and we lost our way twice and now we have found the way?
Give us a break.
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Ha Gina Rinehart with Joh Bjelke Petersen.
What a picture!!!
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Thare is another important point here. Some 20% of GRN voters dont pref ALP, no matter what we hand out as an HTV. We cant help that.
What it shows is that the GRNs convert certain former LNP voters to a progressive vote, where the ALP cant.
20% of GRN vote is about 2% of the electorate. Its significant.
by lefty e on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Go Rose………………Gina would be spitting blood right now
by Last name red wombat on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:15 pm
lefty e,
Of course it’s significant. It just makes it harder for moderate Labor Governments to win office when 20% of Greens are more stupid than the rest of the Greens.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:15 pm
I think the choice between the ALP moving “left” or “right” to gain votes from greens or libs is really a false one. It conjures up some sort of stunt policy move that would be seen through anyway.
Which current policies should be changed or dumped to achieve either of these anyway? Without that its meaningless. We have a broad set of policies being moved on now, the CEP (which can’t realistically be altered now anyway with all those compensation & tax changes built into it), the NBN, the NDIS, the trades skills changes, reforms of shipping & trucking sectors, as well as various legal initiatives like plain packaging & forced marriage laws. I’ve left out plenty of other things. Really, what could be used to move left or right right now? How would it be paid for? How would it get noticed?
The best thing, indeed only thing ,the govt can do is work on good policies that benefit the country now & in the future using the best evidence to hand. If we lose regardless, I’m sure no change of leader, no stunt, no fresh policy designed to appear more left or right, would have made any difference whatsover. The leadership change idea is such rubbish. If we are to lose, it really won’t matter. KK was popular in NSW, and is still fairly well regarded, and it made sweet F.A. difference. When you’re gone, you’re gone.
As to polls, I said mid last year that I thought nothing would get better for the ALP until late 2012. Nothing has changed. It’s all about the CEP (the real reason for the poll drop) and the changes that go with it that matter. The rise in the the tax free threshold alone, to $18000 a year, is a game changer, one that hardly anyone seems to be aware of yet (ask anyone on an average or low wage, 9 out 10 chance they don’t know). It will take a few months though for it all to sink in, there’ll be plenty of fear mongering even while people are realising they are getting less or no tax taken out of their pay, or to realise that society & the economy has carried on regardless Once it has, we’re at least in the game.
by Leroy on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:16 pm
My point there is ther’s a lot of focus on splitting the progressive vote. Not enough on how having 2 parties has increased it.
by lefty e on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Now what were those words muttered by the judge in the Rose/Gina case about Gina???????
by Last name red wombat on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:17 pm
I think the Labor/Green/Independent alliance is the most constructive government we have seen in some time. In a decade or to the Coalition will be pretending it was all their policies like they do now on good economic reform that Hawke Keating achieved.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:21 pm
I suspect the Greens links with the ALP lose more TPP votes for the ALP than they “nick” by taking Lib voters away from the Libs, some of which are then siphoned off to the ALP. The middle ground probably isn’t that enthused about a Green coalition partner in govt.
Why doesn’t this effect occur with the Libs and Nats? It probably does, but to a lesser extent, because the Nats don’t seem to have the Libs by the short and curlies, unlike the Greens and the ALP.
by Mod Lib on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:21 pm
And they reckon Gillard has a big arse
by Last name red wombat on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:24 pm
True. Thats why the Nats are dying out – being challenged everywhere by rural indies, Katter, you name it. Voters can see they are a useless appendage of the Liberal party.
No one noticed, but one of their bastions just fell – QLD. They are the junior partner for the first time in QLD political history.
by lefty e on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Mod Lib,
I’m sure Bob Brown and his earthians will disagree.
It’s quite amazing how Greens think their job destroying economic policies will ever be acceptable to mainstream Labor.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:25 pm
And the WA Nats, for that matter.
by lefty e on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Last name red wombat
As they say “Better a PM with a big arse that a big arse as PM “
by poroti on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Mod Lib
The Nats certainly do in Victoria. If a major party relies on a minor one for balance of power, they have an influence. What else would you expect.
by lizzie on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:26 pm
“than”
by Last name red wombat on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Tricot
Just my opinion but living in south eastern Sydney which has always been Labor heartland I note how things have changed and people are more visceral than I have ever heard in my time. I cannot believe we will have the same leader and I feel confident the Fibs will ditch Abbott shortly afterwards as he would be unelectable against better a better opponent. I suspect we will face MT late next year and he is pretty popular around these parts.
by Mike Patton on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Last name red wombat
Bugger !
by poroti on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:29 pm
GG
“It’s quite amazing how Greens think their job destroying economic policies will ever be acceptable to mainstream Labor.”
You’ll be happy to know I am on the Ecomonic policy working group for GreensWA.
And I can say with confidence that your statement is quite wrong.
Mod Lib
Sometimes you actually try to appear objective, but when you make statements like this
“…because the Nats don’t seem to have the Libs by the short and curlies, unlike the Greens and the ALP.”
It becomes apparent that you’re just interested in spreading memes.
by Astrobleme on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Ecomoronic policy working group. What’s that?
by Mike Patton on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Always the crazy optimists
_______________
Two years ago when the polls dived for Bligh there were those here on PB who said it would all come right on the day
Whoosh ! Bang It didn’t..and Anna and her crew are gone
I hear the same bland assurance here now
The Gillard govt has no talent for seling tself…and Abbott loathsome as he is…has just such a talent
Look at the figures re the Carbon Tax !
Gillard is dead in the water,,,perhaps get some one else…but she is gone for all money
with a primary vote in the 20ies and no sign of recovery
to think otherwise is not optimism… but sheer folly
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Astro,
Back again! And, here was me thinking you’d died and gone to heaven.
Still see big announcements without detail. That has always been an important part of your schtick.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Mike Patton
Ummm Joe Hockey,Tony Abbott and Andrew Robb ?
by poroti on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Thank Popoti for your comment and new uplifting music for me, also very happy with your pronouncement re Murdoch, I was getting worried before
by mari on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Poroti
Who is Curly, Larry and Mo again.
What about Shemp?
by Mike Patton on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:36 pm
deblonay,
Always the crazy pessimist.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Poroti
That is a committee. Not a working anything.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:37 pm
GG
That’s what this blog is about, I wouldn’t bother trying to debate things here!
But I can say that there’s no “job destroying economics”…
by Astrobleme on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Candidate Ron Paul and the war in Af”stan
______________
79% of voters in the US now agree with Paul re the need for immediate withdrawal
He said the Republican establishment wants endless wars,,,and the Jewish Lobby want a war with Iran regardless of the conseguences to the US or world economy…which he says will eb”dire ”
Would that our PM had as much sense!
might even win a few new votes
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Ron Paul on Wars http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0401/Ron-Paul-Most-Americans-agree-with-him-on
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:40 pm
I don’t feel at all inclined to watch QandA tonight.
by BK on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Ron Paul one of the Tea ZParty favourites.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:41 pm
GG ii33
No always the realist …as I said quite some time ago re Q’Land
better than unreal optimism
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:42 pm
Yobbos doing cultural sensitivity.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/video/7nswtop-885606/parliament-burqa-furore-28802997.html#crsl=%252Fvideo%252F7nswtop-885606%252Fparliament-burqa-furore-28802997.html
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:42 pm
BK.
Abetz and Wilkie are on. Pokie reform will be fiery debate.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:42 pm
Mike@1124
Well, I guess you know your area best.
In Perth, it is true that Labor is not actually achieving rave reviews, but most people I come into contact with are not talking politics at all.
There general attitude is that they would like to see JG succeed but somehow she seems to be “stuffing it up”.
Nobody has a good word for Abbott.
There is an undercurrent that “if” the Libs were lead by MT, it would be all over Red Rover for Labor.
I have no way of verifying this.
My point is that “Find the White Knight” is an easy call to make – and I am not confident it is warranted just yet, and I don’t believe there is a White Knight in any case, and if Labor is to go down trying to put policies in place then so be it. That is democracy.
At the end of the day whether it be by 5 or 50 seats, should it happen, it makes no difference. However, I would hate Labor to try to be Liberal-Lite.
Some would claim this has already happened.
The sad part is that some progressive voters actually prefer opposition as they can snipe and find fault which is much easier than actually trying to put policy into place.
There has been a role reversal in that some of the conservative hacks here revel in the role of opposition because they have been on the other side with we as their carping critics.
The difference of course is that conservatives stand for nothing other than the status quo.
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:43 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/mcdonalds-ceo-noble-says-hit-from-carbon-tax-on-spending-overstated/story-fn91v9q3-1226316512807
Surprising that this was in the Ozm will have to cut and paste as usual to read
by mari on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:43 pm
BK agreed Q and A getting pretty tiresome and formulaic. I hate the tweets it just takes away from the focus on actual issues. The main problem is Tony Jones who just hogs the limelight rather than asking probing questions and then butting out.
I would like to see Emma Alberici do a fill in as she is fantastic and totally to the point.
She reminds me of George Negus circa 1980s interview style.
by Mike Patton on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Mike P
I agree entirely.
by BK on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Just when you were counting all the money that we were going to make when the Crikey and Pollbludger site is sold…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/01/huffington-post-bloggers-aol-millions
by Scarpat on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:47 pm
deblonay,
I see you more as an optimistic unrealist.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Guytaur 1139 re Paul\
_________________
Wrong …Paul has not been a Tea Party favorite…your ignorance is showing/..though his son has been
He has been a critic of the crazy christians and the catholic extremists around Santorum
He has been critical of the Zionist Lobby..who excluded him from their TV forum for telling the truth about israel…always dangerous in the USA..and of course of the War Lobby….big in both parties
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:48 pm