Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I am guessing you believe it too GG, but I understand you must keep up appearances.
BTW: I don’t necessarily think it is all over. It could still get worse!
by Mod Lib on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Nite all.
by Mod Lib on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Mod Lib,
I’m very confident of a Labor win at the federal election to be held late next year. Always have been.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:06 pm
From the assumptions you’ve implied in your comments about women.
In 2007 facing an indigenous opponent by way of an independent, Snowdon increased Labor’s vote amongst all (or nearly all IIRC) of the remote indigenous community booths in his electorate from what I recall reading in the Indigenous Times in the washup of the 2007 election.
by confessions on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:06 pm
DWH #1286, no, she didnt.
Why has the PM ended up looking like that is the case? different question and as ML rightly says, a source of much frustration.
But to recap.
1. JG promised to price CO2 emissions. She has.
2. JG promised not to have a carbon tax. She hasn’t. Its Not A Tax!!!)
Only ray of hope I can see is that despite the efforts of certain State governments and media outlets to mislead the public – who are unused to deception on the industrial scale currently being attempted from people they should feel able to trust – it will become apparent during July that the real Julyars are not our very brave PM , or the genuine working class hero Greg Combet, or the superb professionals at Treasury: but, rather, are the risible rabble alongside and behind the man who presently disgraces the office of Leader of the Opposition
The turn when it comes may be quite fast: the News of the World ceased to exist in a few hours on a wave of public revulsion, and I think that they were a more professional outfit than Mr Abbott and his crew.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:07 pm
MTBW @ 981
Another late joiner… newcomer!
by bemused on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:09 pm
DavidWH
and all the spin you put on words won’t change the fact that in the interview where she ruled out ‘a carbon tax’ – a term which had been discussed in depth over the previous few weeks, and which had, in that context, a meaning well understood at the time – she also commited to price carbon.
Which she has done.
Amazingly, not one journalist at the time asked her about the apparent contradiction between promising to price carbon and introducing a carbon tax – because there wasn’t one.
Even more importantly, the idea that somehow this got her across the line in a tight election is bunkum.
Firstly, the ‘no carbon tax’ pledge was pretty obscure (a couple of sentences in the context of thousands; last few days of the campaign; not a big ticket item in the newspapers, restricted to one article, which gets quoted ad nauseum).
Secondly, if the ‘no carbon tax’ message had gotten through, so would have the commitment to pricing carbon – whereas people clearly believed what the Liberals were stating at the time, that Labor had no policy on climate change and the Liberals were the only major going to the election with a climate change policy.
As a candidate, I fielded many questions about “Labor’s inaction on climate change” – from voters, in interviews with journalists (radio, TV, newspaper). I did not get one question about a carbon tax.
Honestly, if that’s all that people are holding against Gillard – whilst ignoring Abbott’s cheerful and deliberate lies on almost a daily basis – it’s obvious that other forces are at work, which can’t be admitted to, and for which any figleaf, however threadbare, is preferable.
As someone who has been a ‘woman in power’ (albeit on a small scale), it seems like sexism to me. But I can understand you won’t ever be able to admit that (probably not even to yourself).
by zoomster on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:09 pm
GG I never said its all over but it probably will be unless the issue is accepted and dealt with. Just saying I know what’s best for Australia won’t cut in my opinion.
by DavidWH on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:09 pm
He did give Australians a 1 year heads up on the issue and actually took it to an election and said if you vote for me I will introduce a GST.
Gillard went to the election saying 1 day before the election, if you vote for me I will make sure there is no carbon tax.
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:10 pm
by Space Kidette on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:10 pm
What would a Carbon Tax… the one that Gillard said she wouldn’t introduce… look like exactly?
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Re Murdoch’s hacking and the Isreali connection
__________________________________
A young Australian Jewish writer,Anthony Lowenstein has put up on his blog a story about Murdoch’s conection with ex-Mossad members and how they helped him destroy some competitiors.
The story surfaced last week in the Fin Review
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Davidwh,
What issue are you talking about.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm
There is no such thing as a moderate Liberal in today’s Australia.
There are Liberal-leaners, rusted-on Liberals, and anti-Abbott Liberals. But not moderate Liberals.
Which is why former Liberal PM Malcolm Fraser has seen fit to resign his party membership.
by confessions on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:12 pm
ML # 1299, yep and the other 3 of FDRs freedoms too and all the rest that flow from that. Good night to you.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Wow what a world we live in that Burma, the country with one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world(more embarrassing stuff-up for the Yanks than the Vietnam War imho) now has more democracy than China.
When will the Chinese want a bit of freedom?
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm
GG
Wow, gimme a swig of that jungle juice as well. Based on what by the way? With or without JG at the helm because I’m sure as hell that she can’t lead Labor to victory any time this century.
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Lowenstein on Murdoch’s Mossad connection
It figures !
http://antonyloewenstein.com/page/2/
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm
fess,
And, Fraser has always been a hypocrtical piece of scum Liberal. The type that everyone knows. It must be bad if even he can’t stand the company.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Is there any Newspoll out tonight ?
by Woeisme on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Is there any Newspoll out tonight ?
by Woeisme on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Mick77,
How about what do you think Abbott and the Libs will offer Australia. It’s up to them to make the case for change.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:18 pm
GG:
Robert Menzies reportedly refused to vote Liberal at the 1972 (1969?) federal election.
What is it about the Liberal party which sees its former leaders constantly reject it?
by confessions on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:18 pm
W,
Next week.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:18 pm
@Geewizz
Late last night our time there was some reporting of a crackdown on social media. This was due to rumours of a coup. All quite on the Eastern front so it looks like the hardliners remain beaten and outoing Presidents comments on more reform needed to make full advantage of the economy is to prevail. That sounds like moves towards more freedom not less.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Thanks GG I understood there might have been a WA poll
by Woeisme on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:21 pm
So at last the gov’t has started saying it is not a tax, it is a carbon price scheme.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Puff
Combet has always said that.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Well, it shows how much prominence it has been given up to now.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm
guytar,
And come July 1 they will be able to prove it.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Oops I was thinking of Cambodia when I mentioned Yank involvement.
Seems backing hardline-communists isn’t a problem for the Yanks if you want to pieve off the people next door who you lost a war to.
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Zoomster @1306
Think about the following likely sinister (shhh) reason: people don’t like her. It’s not a logical science but she grates on many including me, and on my neighbour, on my mum and on my regular bus-driver and on the guy who runs our local pizza place and the list goes on. She’s a turn-off as PM where as a senior minister she was a delight with less exposure. That’s life and like love it has no logic so let’s replace her with Smith or Combet and game on.
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
GG she has to explain to people why it was necessary to put a tax/levy/price on CO2 now at a level higher than anywhere else in the world after the major polluters failed badly to reach an agreement on coordinated global approach to reducing emissions. She promised to build concensus and she failed to even attempt to. That is the fundament trust issue the PM has.
Zoomster until 2015 it’s a price mechanism that raises revenue based on pricing a commodity. Call it what you like but it’s a tax until the carbon trading scheme comes into effect.
by DavidWH on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
fess,
Clearing the conscience, I assume.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:26 pm
davidwh,
Keep repeating.
Eventualy you might convince yourself.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Mick77,
You seem to have a mummy problem.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm
GG
Abbott and the Libs offer the one thing that Labor cannot offer at the moment and that is “not Gillard”. I don’t think one can overestimate how much she is disliked and the Oz electorate seems quite prepared to cut off its nose to spite its face just to make the point. How do you see the turnaround coming?
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm
One good thing about an ex American on the panel at Qanda tonight. Not backwards in roasting Forestry Ztasmani for its attempts o muzzle free speech.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Gee Whiz,
The big problem for the yanks is those they buy off don’t seem to stay bought.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Lateline showed the Laws interview with Abbott.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Mick77,
A “Not Gillard “” campaign is something I dream about. Unfortunately, the Lib hierarchy are not as stupid as you.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:34 pm
Night all. GG I got to bed comfortable that my opinion is just a valid to me as yours is to you.
As has been asked several times tonight and not answered is what is a carbon tax if not a price on emissions of CO2.
by DavidWH on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:34 pm
GG
My mum only comes up in recent posts because the turn-around in her views is so stark. All of her life Labor, now at 87 and getting well looked after, she cannot stand Julia Gillard and switched at last election.
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:35 pm
davidwh,
Now that you are in bed, at least you know what ever you feel is yours.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:36 pm
@DavidWh
A tax is not something that can be traded. Therefore the carbon price is not a tax.
That is it.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:37 pm
The Theme song of the Julia Fan Club on PB
_____________________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eImvscBf8uU
by deblonay on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:37 pm
GG
The stupid tag is a bit rich coming from someone like you who said
but can’t or won’t explain how this will happen.
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Mick77,
Have you told her about the $250 she receives in the next few weeks, or the CPI plus 1.7% pension increase she is to receive on July 1 and the rest of the increases.
I bet not.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:39 pm
What Laws interview with Abbott??
by confessions on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Confessions
The one where Abbott admits that a levy he is going to impose for Paid Zparental leve is in fact a (hold your breath) TAX!!!!!!!
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:42 pm