Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I am highlighting the fact that nobody has actually been named – thus people speculating on Thomson might well be looking in the wrong place.
I am also unimpressed by the external interference – by Brandis, Jackson and any other person with a vested interest to see Thomson go down.
If Thomson was not a pollie in a hung parliament, this stuff wouldn’t make it to the evening news.
by jenauthor on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:18 pm
[OK, so you have cast aspersions on Kathy Jackson and now on Senator Brandis....}
Oh Lord..
Cast aspersions...cast aspersions? Who do you think you are ML? Tiny Tim?
Jenauthor put a point of view. Like every other scab-picking pont of view put here by your lot (including those put by the big Aspersion Hisself, Brandis) and just as valid.
If you don't like aspersions....then FFS stop flinging them about yerself, comrade and see what (if anything) the DPP does with the reference.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm
SBS is advertising Panorama as the documentary “Rupert Murdoch does not want you to see”. ABC did such a great job of making the supplementary Financial Review Story, on local piracy, ‘the one we helped keep the lid on, here, to protect our main man, Rupert’.
by joe2 on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Probably a fair analogy, but you’ve spoiled it for me, smithe. I rather liked the hapless Major Major in a bemused way, (he had a sort of innocence about him) especially I suppose the way he’d managed to use Sgt Towser’s bureaucratic imbecility to advantage. Now Abbott… I can never feel the same about Major Major again!
By the way, I hope your health is improving, or if that is too much, that you’re coping with your incapacity better by now.
The upside of it all is that we have benefited from your more frequent postings.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Hmmm this Thompson thing will take away any oxygen Gillard was hoping for in the next few weeks.
I am becoming even more convinced 2013 will be very unkind to Labor almost like the landslide in 1975.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:27 pm
What have I flung about exactly smithe?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Kind words GD, thanks.
I doubt I’v added much that wasn’t already here in spades. For good or ill, but thanks.
I generally enjoy myself.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:31 pm
I thought that the DPP did not have an investigative arm. It receives a “brief” and decides whether to prosecute.
If that is the case, I assume the decision will be relatively quick. Then Mr Thompson will have the choice of whether to cop a guilty plea and lessen his penalty or risk a higher penalty for the sake of keeping the party in power for an extra 12 months.
by ifonly on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Gary
Actually I think the general public have such a low opinion of pollies in general that they just think it is par for the course. I’ve heard a lot more giggling and snickering about it than anyone seriously upset.
by Diogenes on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:34 pm
I suspect it will only take oxygen if he’s found guilty.
But yes never have two leaders of the major political parties been so hated.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:35 pm
Yes, but we have a Plan B Gary!
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Yes, the hypocrisy over the media reporting has been stark.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:38 pm
For goodness sake, GS, if you’re so interested in the Thomson case you ought to have learned by now that there’s no ‘p’ in his name!
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:39 pm
I am guessing you are not referring to sexism here are you Confessions?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:40 pm
You seem to be trying to come across as the conscience of PB or something with this ‘aspersions’ nonsense. Tiny Tim. Jimminy Crickett.
Jenauthor says something about someone who is a party to this Thomson witch-hunt and it’s: “Oh maaa, she’s casting……. aspersions.”
As if the fact of making just such a complaint is not in and of itself an aspersion on jenauthor.
If you’re going to suggest something about someone’s character or motives, fine, just don’t bother to wrap it-up in a hurt tone of assumed moral superiority, because brother, in a political mudfight of this crappy sort, there ain’t no such thing.
Throw the mud and, having done so, be content.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Love the BBC Panorama’s Title: Murdoch’s TV Pirates
by The Finnigans on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:42 pm
GD i empathise with the fact that since Gillard is hugely unpopular you can only find enjoyment in pointing out when people spell his name wrong. Humble pardons for my spelling.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Have just got off the phone with mum who advises that my relative with advanced lung cancer has a) one collapsed lung, b) constantly losing balance, resulting in falls, and c) an increasingly bloating abdomen.
I kind of get the first two as being related, but can’t quite fathom the third.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Jen went:
Modlib went:
And you say I am casting aspersions!!!!!
LOL
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:43 pm
No, ML, no evidence of sexism in the media treatment of Thomson.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:43 pm
William,
On the Crikey group rate offer, could you post the link in your editorial. I seem to lose it when it’s just in the general posts.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Correct. But they can return the brief and request further investigations or inquiries be made if they’re not happy with what’s been delivered.
If there’s enough there to make an informed decision, they’ll make it.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Confessions:
No probs. Its just that he is a man and the media are being mean to him apparently, whereas they are being kind to a female pollie. I was just wondering whether you were drawing attention to the gender difference and any possible impact that had on their treatment. I see you don’t want to draw attention to that in this instance.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Gary S
That’s not true actually. If you use disapproval ratings as a measure of hatred, Keating and Downer were quite a bit worse.
Dec 94
Keating 59%
Downer 69%
by Diogenes on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:48 pm
smithe:
I take you point about the staffer rather than a minister. But reading reports of the episode does invoke the entitlement/born to rule mentality of Liberals.
Someone allegedly using his/her position in the Premier’s office to influence a sexual assault complaint is an abuse of power.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:48 pm
If Brandis and the rest of the gang were smart they would stop commenting and leave it to the DPP to reach a conclusion.
by DavidWH on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Anyone remember The Cruise of The Crimson Assurance?
“It’s fun to charter an accountant
and sail, the wide accountant-sea….”
They could be playing this little Python ditty as a background soundtrack.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:49 pm
I don’t consider Downer a leader though Diog
lol!
But yes you are most correct.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:49 pm
It is dopey and ignorant comments like this, from someone who aspires to the highest legal office in the land, which leads sensible people to “cast aspersions” on the man’s fitness for the task.
One would think that a future Attorney General like Brandis should support the Constitution and convention, not piss on it for short term political advantage.
by sprocket_ on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:51 pm
Mod Lib:
The hokey pokey Senator had actual charges brought against her, which she defended in court.
There are as yet no charges against Thomson, yet the media hysteria and speculation surrounding the FWA investigation into his former union has been overwhelming, far more so than any media speculation about whatshername. Do you see a disconnect?
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:52 pm
http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/23557
http://motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/beyond-coal-plant-activism
more in each article
by Leroy on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:53 pm
I have no analysis of ” Rudd Haters”, as you refer to them, for four very simple reasons.
1/
Kevin Rudd is on the backbench and not really relevant to the debate.
2/
As we all did, I voted for Mr Rudd and watched in horrified dismay at the speed, brutality and finality of his removal. Those actions, even though they were necessary,
and, given subsequent events, appear to have been vindicated, still give pause to sombre, sober, uncomfortable reflection. The only shining light being the strength, of both character and intelligence, of Julia Gillard.
3/
The history/story of Kevin Rudds time as Prime Minister will be written by someone, somewhere, at some time. The input and the roles of the ” junior woodchucks”, as Barry Cassidy called them would be interesting reading. I find it curious that none on this blog have pursued it? None that I have seen anyway.
4/
While I have no particular ” barrow to push” against Mr. Rudd I have to state that;
a.
I voted for him and had the greatest admiration for him.
b.
So very thankful that, thanks to both Maxine and himself, the JWH canker was expunged from the parliament.
c.
After the ” Apology” it became apparent, to me anyway, that the man who was PM, and would be king, had feet moulded firmly from clay that I, in my niavety, believed only to be for us common folk.
Kevin Rudd gave us a fleeting glimpse of what we, as both a people and a country can be.
Julia Gillard is showing us the hard work, the mental strength, the political acumen and the sheer bloody minded effort it is going to take.
Like Kevin Rudd, I don’t think we are up to it.
by Ian on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Of course it is. It’s just not BOF’s abuse of power, rather it’s that of the staffer concerned.
If BOF knew what was happening, however….that’d be a completely new ball game. But there’s nothing that suggests he did, at least as I understand things.
Appointing a fool like this to a high level staff position raises other questions, but not questions of corruption. Competence, maybe.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Nothing personal, GS.
It just annoys me that all the trolls coming on here to air their opinions on it (and I accept that you’re not one) do so much research on the matter that they can’t even get his name right. How much do they really know about it all if they can’t even get that right?
All the gossip and speculation to this point … does anybody know if Thomson’s name is on the list of FWA sent to the DPP?
As for JG’s unpopularity, I can live with that. She seems to have managed to get all Labor priorities into legislation while still running one of the best economies in the world (with triple a ratings by all three agencies- read it and weep, Costello). We’ll see how the polls rate 6 months or so from now.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:55 pm
GS
I was just looking at the LOTO lists. I never knew we had a Free Trade Party and an Anti-Socialist Party providing LOTOs just after Federation. Barton was in the Protectionist Party. It’s very quaint.
by Diogenes on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:55 pm
ML,
More aspersions from The Big Aspersion, I see.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Yes I do.
The Thomson issue has prostitution, possible misappropriation of funds, the tantalising possibility of the fall of a minority government whereas the hokey pokey Senator as you call her appears to be suffering from a mental illness.
Just as they left Senator Sherry alone, they are leaving the other Senator alone.
The Daily Telegraph has been critical of the NSW government, and there are news stories everywhere about O’Farrell being dragged into the Star issue.
Where there are juicy stories the media go for it, and so they should.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:57 pm
smithe:
So you feel justified in saying I am casting aspersions if a member of a political party that I have voted for casts aspersions eh?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Yep. But his actions still smack of Liberal entitlement mentality.
And I reckon the opposition should refer the whole thing to ICAC.
What’s good for the goose and all that.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Twitter news from the UK is awash with James Murdoch stepping down immediately as chairman of BSkyB.
To quote Monty Python; “It’s only a flesh wound!”
by sprocket_ on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:02 pm
NSW Labor better be careful playing their hand to hard on this BOF thing because it’s looking like another case of Godwin Gretch(public servant inventing stories).
by GeeWizz on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:04 pm
It’s the disconnect between the actual and all those possibles I was getting at.
As for Nick Sherry, I still recall every media outlet in the land gleefully replaying Costello’s nasty mocking QT response to a dixer with some kind of ‘impersonation’ of Sherry’s mother. “Oh possum….!!!” to shrieks of laughter from the govt benches.
Left alone indeed.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:04 pm
@Mod Lib/2186
The issue where the juicy stories go is while sometimes tell a grain of truth, 98% of it is a lie.
TheAustralian and Daily Terror, News Ltd that do it, others follow.
Daily Terror and TheAustralian has been caught out lieing a number of times, even on a non-threatening debates such as the NBN.
by zoidlord on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:04 pm
I like Yes/No Reid
Then you have such entities as the Commonwealth Liberal Party.
I still find it pathetic that the Coalition do not honour the anti-socialist leaders/PMs that came before Ming.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:06 pm
by Diogenes on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Impressive, young Skywalker.
Not bad at all. Makes us look a bit ordinary.
Still, we can always up-target a bit.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:08 pm
smithe I’m pretty sure their Female socialist leader did not lie to them about their plans before the election mind.
Helle Thorning-Schmidt is at least more honest than Ms Gillard.
by Gary Sparrow on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:09 pm
That was before the suicide attempt from my memory
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Good to see that Newman and the LNP love of stupid is manifesting itself so early.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/entertainment/books/new-premier-tears-up-literary-awards-20120403-1wad1.html#ixzz1qyl2lwEr
by poroti on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Murdoch and the Hackers from Israel..the SBS./BBC program tonight
______________________________
Now we see that Murdoch’s links with the Israel Mossad/hacking company may help to explain why he has consistently sought to absolve Israel of any crimes…the blockade of Gaza and the starving of I.5 million Palestinians..the attacks on Lebanon and the torrent of anti-personal; bombs dropped on civilian areas..the settlements on the West bank
Murdoch never says a word…except to denounce israel’s critics as neo-Nazi or worse…even Jewish critics get the treatment if they decounce the right-wingers around Netanyahu
Now we know how close he is to them and that explains a lot,the hold they have on him perhaps ?
They deserve each other !!
by deblonay on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:22 pm