Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gs,
For once in yer life mate, just take your hand off it will you?
I’m not going to reprise that tired and flogged-to-death Tory “she lied..meme” for the twenty millionth time here with you, so you’re barking up the wrong tree for that debate, brother.
If you want to debate political ethics, have a chat with Tiny Tim about Aspersions and the castng-thereof, if you like.
He’s around here somewhere cheering-on that flake Brandis.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:23 pm
…more aspersions smithe.
Consistency is something at least I guess.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Oh, so once they drive someone to attempt suicide, then they leave him alone.
Fair enough.
by zoomster on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:25 pm
zoomster:
I think criticising Costello because he attacked an ALP senator who later attempted suicide is a bit rich.
Have you heard of an old ALP pollie called Keating?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:27 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3470436.htm
Blimey, if she wasn’t speaking as the national Secretary, I’d sure like to know “who” she was speaking on behalf of.
Virtually every thing she was asked (and which she answered) related to her role as NS of that Union.
Just goes to show that you don’t have to be horribly smart to run that particular Union. The general membership seem to be quite a trusting, easy going lot that are happy to let their leaders get away with virtually anything.
Any other Union and she would have been out of a job tomorrow morning after that lot.
I don’t like her chances of retaining membership of the ALP for much longer though! An application form for the Liberal Party is probably in the mail at this very moment!
by scorpio on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Gee, i just saw Germaine Greer’s big stomach
by The Finnigans on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:29 pm
On what grounds could she be expelled from the ALP?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Oh, was that what I was doing?
I thought I was pointing out how pathetic your defence of him was.
And – as was clear at the time – Costello’s attack in parliament was a direct cause of the suicide attempt. Sherry felt that he had failed to live up to the standards he had set himself.
I am unaware of any of Keating’s attacks leading to an attempted suicide. I’m sure you’ll enlighten me if there were.
(Oh, and don’t try and argue that there wasn’t a causual connection, because Costello was the first to recognise there was one).
by zoomster on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:31 pm
If she’s been gagged by the National Executive, she shouldn’t be speaking in any capacity.
by zoomster on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Mod Lib,
You’ve gone way out of line now buster. The treatment handed out to Sherry was abominable and beyond disgusting.
I don’t think the likes of Costello and others will ever be able to airbrush their disgusting behaviour in that episode and you seem to be happy to follow their miserable path.
Piss off somewhere else where your sort are more tolerated.
by scorpio on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:33 pm
What’s it to you you lowlife grub.
by scorpio on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Don’t know of too many attempted suicides related to Mr Keating.
Grubby mate! Bloody grubby.
by scorpio on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:36 pm
So is your argument that if a political attack results in the attackee attempting suicide, it is the attacker’s fault?
So Keating attacking Hewson’s speech impediment, or making fun of Peter Reith’s weight, or any of the other personal invective was OK, because none of the Libs attempted suicide, but Costello’s attack on Sherry was wrong because Sherry had depression and it tipped him over the edge?
All politicians attack their political opponents. It is part of our system of government. Costello was attacking Sherry on the grounds of improper claiming of allowances- perfectly reasonable line of attack.
The level to which partisanship blinds people here is quite extraordinary.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:36 pm
So is the ALP responsible for Andrew Robb’s depressive illness?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Mod Lib
No, and they have never made any form of attack on him for it.
Your point?
by zoomster on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
You are a total scroll by now mate. I refuse to read “anything” you post here from here on.
by scorpio on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Kathy Jackson is either a brave hero or a naive fool. Time will tell which one.
by DavidWH on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:40 pm
I am devastated.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Actually, I think I get it.
You think people get depressed because of outside factors.
So you have absolutely no understanding of the illness.
If so, can you please shut up about it. I have very close personal experience of the illness – which included being ‘blamed’ by a depressed person for their illness – and this attitude s###ts me to high heaven with its ignorance.
by zoomster on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:42 pm
So what does Murdoch Jr actually manage these days?
Oh and Mod Lib Robb has been feeling low (his word) for many years.
With his grasp of economics I would be feeling a tad blue myself.
by Henry on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Interesting to watch the Ms Jackson interview.
She is asked if any of the “supposed ” breaches that may lead to criminal charges are related to her actions.
She answers no and then states that they all relate to Mr Thomson.
She has not read the report yet claims that she knows what the report contains. How would that be ?
Ms Jackson is either very sure of herself or very stupid.
by Doyley on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm
The point I am making is how ridiculous it is to use whether or not the outcome of a political attack (a perfectly justified attack on improper expense claims) leads to a suicide attempt to judge its worth rather than the substance of the attack.
Do you think Keating attacking Hewson’s speech impediment is fine because Hewson didn’t go and slash his wrists, but Costello attacking improper expense claims is wrong because Sherry went off to slash his wrists.
Can you not see how silly your position is?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Quite clearly nobody can be responsible for a persons suicide, unless they were aware that the person was in that risk category.
A grubby attack on somebody should be detested because it is grubby, but in no way can you blame somebody for a persons suicide. We had this discussion way back in Brent’s blog years ago I believe.
Nobody should attack, criticise, divorce, split up etc etc with another in case in lead to suicide is where the argument leads.
by Thomas Paine on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:45 pm
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Wow. I go away watch a movie come back and the knives are out.
Costello did wrong in his attacks on Sherry. He apologised stating he did not intend anything near someone losing their life. Lets all believe him and move on. Depression and suicide are not weopons to be wielded in political debate.
As for the inquiry and comments the relevant one was by Mr Cowdery on the Drum this evening. Due to lack of money due to lak of funding the DPP is going to take time to determine if charges need to be laid due to criminality.
So ll this invective gets people nowhere. If charges are laid against Thomson, most likely it ill be after the election.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Perhaps because it was her that sent the material to FWA 4 years ago?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:46 pm
I am speechless!
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Yes it was. Almost immediately before, if I recall.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Jackson is dating the vice president of FWA who was installed by John Howard.
by Dee on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:51 pm
with mod lib on the sherry stuff. Seriously folks. Anyone who has had a close relative kill themself ( as I have) or try to or threaten to should know better than to buy into finding people to blame. Lets just be glad Nick got his life back together and by the way he has contributed lots to the public good since then.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:52 pm
I think the Qld election results have really knocked a lot of people about.
And the knock on effect of Gillard’s factional supporters attacking and character assassinating Rudd again has reaped it just reward. She cannot complain, her abysmal poll results is something she has earned.
They thought they were clever in bringing in Carr, but I think she will find that he is diametrically opposed to her on a number of issues, and it seems he will say so. Probably he has his eye on the top job now, seeing that Gillard is most likely to get knifed herself at some stage.
The only thing that matters to the factional power brokers is if Carr is a threat to their power or not. If not then they will have a program to dispense with gillard after a ‘reasonable’ amount of time. Gillard’s legacy will be to be remembered as a back-stabber. Sad for the girl.
by Thomas Paine on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Just to remind you what you posted:
So, indeed, he was left alone after the mental illness manifested.
Just as his fellow senator has been left alone. We have a decent media in Aus.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:53 pm
I don’t live in Qld, and couldn’t care less about the election result there.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
@TP/2230
Actually I think it’s you guys by attacking Gillard and Labor all the time…..
Without even thinking of Coalition short coming and long ones….
by zoidlord on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Mod Lib
I always like it when Liberals point to a Labor person to justify their actions.
So we’re to accept Costello’s behaviour because Keating behaved the same way.
Most of us can work out right or wrong for ourselves. We don’t need to look at how other people behave to work out whether we’re behaving correctly.
Not so the Libs, apparently. They can’t work out if a form of behaviour is acceptable or not without looking to see what someone from Labor did in similar circumstances.
If they can find someone from Labor who behaved the same way, they breathe a sigh of relief – must be OK, then.
I’m willing to accept that both Costello and Keating behaved badly in Parliament.
What I did was point out two facts – 1. no attack made by Keating led to anyone’s suicide; 2. Costello accepted a degree of responsibility, showing that he felt he might have contributed to Sherry’s actions.
Costello was obviously a better man than you are. Didn’t catch him pointing to Keating’s behaviour to justify his own.
by zoomster on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Mod Lib.
Dissappointed that no acton will be taken until after the election hey! (see comment 2224)
There will be no early election due to HSU scndle given those facts.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Mod Lib:
You can’t on one hand excuse the behaviour of then Liberals towards Nick Sherry, while on the other insisting that the behaviour of current Liberals (yourself included) towards Craig Thomson is different.
You are getting lost in your own goalpost shifting.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:58 pm
zoomster, really, back off. Life is more complicated than that.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 3, 2012 at 10:59 pm
zoomster:
Very long post with very little substance.
Costello had every right to raise the expense issue against an ALP senator.
Every right.
Costello was absolutely right to feel bad about Sherry slashing his wrists and calling KB.
KB was absolutely right to tell Costello that he was not to blame.
The problem as I see it is you claiming that Costello was wrong to raise the expense issue. He was not. I see you have accepted that both Costello and Keating “behaved badly”. If you re-examine my posts I made it clear when an attack was OK and when I thought it was not (i.e., personal attacks versus legitimate questions re inappropriate expense claims).
I cannot see how this is difficult to understand, unless it is viewed through the prism of party politics.
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:00 pm
The ongoing damage to the ALP is gold for our side guytaur.
Books will be written about this stuff in a decade or so. There will be 4 Corners reports on it with drums and dramatic music. Just wait and see!
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Daily Terror and TheAustralian has been caught out lieing a number of times, even on a non-threatening debates such as the NBN.
Non-threatening to you and me. Life threatening to them. Hence the brimstone and pitchforks of today. Can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings…
by Roy Orbison on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Don’t worry zoomie.
It was just another baseless aspersion…directed at Keating this time.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:03 pm
So, how have I shifted goalposts?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Thanks for playing defence attorney for me Smithe — I ducked out for daughter’s b’day dinner and come back to a big does of vitriol all over the place.
Glad we aren’t all in the same room, black eyes all round, methinks!
by jenauthor on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Kathy Jackson has opened herself up to defamation. She has suspicion. No evidence presented to the public to justify her statements that are in the public arena.
So it has to be asked what is her agenda? I do not know the answer. However either the answer will destroy the PM’s reputation for placing confidence in one of her team. Or this will blow up in he Coalitions face for being a power hungry mob out with pitchforks and torchs.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Actually, my apologies. That isn’t what Mod Lib is doing.
What Mod Lib is doing is trying to suggest that the govt launched similar attacks on hokey pokey Senator (whose name has genuinely escaped me) as the then Liberal govt did quite brazenly, and in QT to Nick Sherry.
Labor has played a dead bat with the shoplifting Senator, and there have been no egregious Dixers in HoR QT about her.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:06 pm
jen,
The PB lounge atm is a bit like the morning after the night before, detritus all over the place.
by This little black duck on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Again Confessions, you are getting your timing wrong.
Were there any attacks from the Liberal party against Senator Sherry after the mental illness episode?
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
The level to which partisanship blinds people here is quite extraordinary.
Highly unlikely that a one-eyed partisan like yourself is smart enough to see the devastating irony in that gem.
by Roy Orbison on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Mary Jo Fisher!
Google is, as always, one’s friend!!
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:08 pm