Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@ModLib
The mud is stiking to the coalition too. That phone call by Brandis to NSW Minister to politically interfere in an investigation has not been explained. The great unwashed see the slavering jaws wanting to bring Labor down so they can get the Treasury Benches.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Correction!
Lawler is a member of FWA & vice president of the Industrial Relations Commission.
by Dee on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:10 pm
I’m sureyou can handle yourself jen.
Sanctimonious twats just grind my gears after a while.
I dipped-out to listen th a bit of lateline, but there was Abbott banging-on about “illegitimate votes” or somesuch palaver.
Then there’a Alberici being a dick, goin for the crap gotcha, the-rule-in-rule-out low-blow, talking across Wong. I hope Wong just gives her one in the schnozz for her efforts.
Alberici is a try-hard.
She doesn’t even warrant blowhard status.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Book – bed …. YES!
Nite folks.
by jenauthor on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:10 pm
It only takes ONE Wong to make Abbott gone white.
by The Finnigans on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Ducky:
You can always go back to bed if the PB lounge offends your sensibilities.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Kathy Jackson is a very unimpressive individual.
Bogan springs to mind.
by Henry on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:12 pm
@Confessions
By the looks of it the PB lounge is in a Kings Cross Back Alley this eve.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Penny very good on lateline.
Almost got the impression Emma was batting eyelids at her…
by Henry on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:13 pm
The “great unwashed” get a chance to tell you elitists what they think every few years.
They have done so in NSW.
They have done so in Qld.
They will do so federally soon enough!
Also, the longer it takes, the more fermented will be the response, I suspect!
Anyhow, goodnight for now!
by Mod Lib on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
mod Lib:
Nice try at deflection, but I ain’t falling for it.
Are you proud of Costello’s appalling QT behaviour back then? And where is the Labor equivalent on Mary Jo today?
Liberal entitlement mentality, as I said way back when. It’s sickening.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
And those Bronnie Bishop piss-holes-in-the-snow-eyes, what’s the story there?.
Is Alberici a Bishop? Was there some unfortunate switcheroo in the natal ward many years ago.
The nation holds it’s breath for an answer.
I mean, it’s gotta be ruled-in or out, hasn’t it?
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Perhaps because it was her that sent the material to FWA 4 years ago?
Has it occurred to you that someone may have, and almost certainly did, also send material on HER to FWA? Probably not, due to that blinding partisanship that you seem to think only afflicts others. How does it feel to be THAT close to having all the ducks in a row? Yet still so far, far away…
by Roy Orbison on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Emma Alberici is wonderful. She’s worth a thousand Uhlmanns and even more Triolis, Grattans and Fran Kellys.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:16 pm
BTW before the pitchforks come for me for agreeing with Mod Lib on this occasion, I believe Thomson is most likely innocent – for reasons which he will only disclose if forced to. Think about it for a second kids.
And further, if we are in pitchfork territory, I would like to see that thoroughly reprehensible creature Scott Morrison take Reith’s show pony enactment of life as an asylum seeker just a bit further and take his chances on a smugglers boat. Not that he should perish like so many poor souls, just that he might understand and , yes, repent.
I would suggest as another option there the selfsame Member for Cook fronting up on a Navy boat trying to save people, but the Navy of course are (1) honourable (2) highly qualified and (3) selfless in defence of both the security of Australia and of those in peril on the seas, so thats 3 strikes against the disgusting soi disant Christian Mr Morrison being received in such company.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Mod Lib
An old saying applies here. Stones. Glasshouses.
Look to your own before you gloat over Labor.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Well, it’s not hard to beat that lot of no-hopers and epsilon-minus grade morons, but having said that fess, I’ve gotta say, you’re easily pleased.
I thought Alberici was a right twat tonight.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Australia isn’t a Labor dictatorship just yet.
BTW on a completely seperate note, I have been reading about the hoo-ha about our man CanDo up here in QLD scrapping the Premier Literary Awards. Apparantly the cost saving of scrapping this event was $244,000.
Thats one expensive award…. sounds like a big free-dinner and chardonnay type event that needed to go.
CanDo, can get rid of waste.
by GeeWizz on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm
smithe:
Her interviewing has been exemplary since taking over Lateline.
by confessions on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:27 pm
@Geewizz
Lame very lame. The National Executive comment was about consequences. Not the action of breaking the rules.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:28 pm
geewizz. the prize was actually numerous smaller prizes. and no it wasn’t some big free-dinner and chard type event.
get educated you moron.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:28 pm
middle man to a value of $244,000 to the Queensland Taxpayer?
Seriously I can print an award up on my printer with a 50 cent piece of cardboard and 1 cent worth of ink.
Heck I’ll throw in a bottle of wine for the winner and some flowers, lets say $100 bucks worth.
Wheres the other $244K going to?
by GeeWizz on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:32 pm
sorry. i shouldnt have called you a moron. but seriously, what a petty ‘cost saving’ to make. it was symbolic shot across the bow of the ‘educated’ and nice little nudge nudge wink wink to those who through no fault of their own are somewhat suspicious of literary endeavours.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:32 pm
@Middle man.
Under Can Do hollywood on the Gold Coast becomes can’t do.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:32 pm
you find out yourself.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:33 pm
I see that the ABC is giving extensive coverage to Abbott’s line that ‘this Government is being propped up by a tainted vote’. It would greatly help if the ABC could also draw our attention to the particular provision in the Constitution that specifies what should be done in the case of a ‘tainted vote’.
by CO on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:33 pm
the ABC disappointment on a daily basis. from being ‘the’ standard they are now completely without standards.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:35 pm
Typical Liberals, act like scum, drive someone to attempt suicide, then try to airbrush it from history. BTW, people attempt/commit suicide even though they do not have depression.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:37 pm
As Andrew Stafford wrote on his blog on Brisbane Times. Queensland: we’re Stranded. and linked it to this little gem.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFvhd–qDDU
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Uk Reports coming in that James Murdoch is stepping down from BskyB according to the SMH.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:37 pm
So who saw the photograph that I photographed on S.A. ABC 7 PM news TONIGHT!?
There it was in all it’s glory. The perfect use of aperture, shutter speed, focal length and composition were all there for everyone to see.
As part of the Crikey group subscription promo I would be willing to allow the photograph that I photographed to be printed on t-shirts.
Perhaps with the slogan “Crikey.com.au Poll Bludger Speed Dating Friday Member 2012″. could be added to give the photo some context.
I’m sure First Dog on the Moon could add the required text above and / or below the photograph that I photographed.
What does everyone think about that? The t-shirts could be an extra bonus for participating in the Crikey group subscription offer.
by ShowsOn on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Dunno about that talking over people fess old son.
Or the absolutist rule-in/rule-out crud. I mean, what kind of journo asks crap questions like that? I can’t even rule-in waking-up tomorrow. Can you?
What does she want? The sheer excellence and genius of that gotcha question recorded for the awe and edification of journos for generatons to come……..or is she after the illumination that one gets from a sensible answer to a searching question directed at a competent Minister on top of her portfolio?
I mean, if she did her job, we might actually learn something.
Cearly, from where I sit, it’s all about Emma.
Admittedly, she’s an improvement on the wailing Greek Chorus you’ve identified above, but it’s a sad day when a bordeline competent and obviously ego-driven interviewer like Alberici gets kudos for simply being better than awful.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Its official. No James Murdoch at BskyB.
by guytaur on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Cando – jobs for the boys already.
Cando – jacking up electricity prices 20% already.
Good luck Qld.
by Henry on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Not keeping up tonight due to the usual work and family, but Mod Lib #wherever that was, casting aspersions at Senator Brandis? FFS!! SC in his own lunchtime. What a fool he is, despite his memorable contribution in describing JW Howard as a lying rodent.
Serial attempts to interfere in proper legal process.
Utterly ignorant of huge tracts of the law.
To give one example, he thinks and has said in Hansard that international declarations which arent treaties can be and have been ratified by Australia. Um, you cant ratify a declaration. Because its not a treaty. Go to the bottom of the class George.
Trainspotter stuff for most people perhaps, hardly daily tele front page unless it was a Labor Minister, but epic fail for anyone vaguely involved in public law.
Almost (almost) as unqualified to be AG as Kentucky Joe would be to be Treasurer.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:46 pm
we need it Henry…
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:47 pm
MM. Brandis has sold out his education, his own knowledge of what is true, for political point scoring. charming.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:48 pm
The Madness of Newt Gingrich…and his BIG IDEAS
______________
See all five of his promises…including a promise to bring petrol prices down to about 65 ceyts US a litre….yes really big( mad ) promiseshttp://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/02/newt-gingrichs-last-very-big-idea/
by deblonay on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Cando axing the literary awards already.
the lights are going out out on Qld.
by Henry on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Gingrich’s mad promses to the US voters
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/02/newt-gingrichs-last-very-big-idea/
by deblonay on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:50 pm
middle man.. you and Labor just don’t get it.
This is ONE pet project. By itself it is insignificant. $244K is probably a tiny portion of the budget.
You say, don’t scrap that it’s just 1 project. Then something else comes up… it’s only $250K in cost as well. Well why should that one be scrapped either, just let it slide through you didn’t scrap the other one.
And then by the end of it, you’ve approved so many pet projects you are spending huge amounts of money.
Queensland Governments role is the following:
1. Running QLD Education
2. Running QLD Health
3. Running QLD Transport and Roads
4. Running QLD Police and Law
5. Running QLD Water, Resource & Minerals
6. Protection of QLD Environment
7. Registration of Business Names and managing Councils
If they are doing anything else, they are wasting my money
by GeeWizz on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:50 pm
PTMD @ 2277
Really?
Well I suppose there are other very exceptional circumstances in which it may occur but otherwise I believe it is invariably depression which is frequently not diagnosed until after the event. All very sad.
by bemused on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Henry it seriously has given me flashbacks to the late eighties when i was a teenager… being one of the odd ones out for liking books etc… i was right into punk as well and was treated like a leper… qlder’s enjoy sameness and familiarity.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:52 pm
no Geewizz. you dont get it.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Bob Carr is proving a liability for Juliar – why on earth is he allowed to speak on matters outside of his portfolio area?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:53 pm
so knocking down GOMA to build some units would be a god thing?
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:53 pm
The Guardian on the James Murdoch’s resignation story tonight from London
________
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
by deblonay on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:53 pm
hmmm… what about the QLD museum?
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Four Corners on forced marriages….I swear I wouldn’t watch this stuff.
…………But 60% of Pakistanis married to their first cousins? FMD.
The gene pool must be getting more than a little brackish.
Turned it off now. That’s better.
by smithe on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:54 pm
oh and that useless orchestra thingey and the dancing girls – the ballet thing… p*ss them off too.
by middle man on Apr 3, 2012 at 11:55 pm