Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
One interesting thing about Antony Green’s graphs are the near vertical lines refelective of rapid turnarounds in party voting at state elections
by shellbell on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:39 am
A little light relief:
http://media.news.com.au/multimedia/2012/01/oz_quiz/oz_quiz.swf
by MTBW on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:39 am
I noticed it on Twitter a couple of days ago and did it at that time it was running 70% to 30% as concerned on a couple of hundred, so now the right wing nuts have got in on the act, guess IPA has been busy????
by mari on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:40 am
http://bible.cc/daniel/11-14.htm
There u go i thought i had heard this type of quote in my other life, of fire and brimstone semons
It took me about 30 sec, to fi d it , take note of abnott language i am betti g there is more out there
by my say on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:40 am
[MTBW
Posted Wednesday, April 4, 2012 at 8:14 am | Permalink
http://m.smh.com.au/national/how-to-live-well-on-nothing-a-year–obeids-financial-miracle-20120403-1wax9.html
Nice one MTBW.
Mo Obeid. Model citizen.
Ten volumes of Affidavit and no reference to a Trust paying the Bills.
Some people are doing it tough.
by smithe on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:40 am
However, the NSW libs wil survive for a long time when the SMH can do stories on family members of old ALP ministers like this one as frequently as they do
http://www.smh.com.au/national/how-to-live-well-on-nothing-a-year–obeids-financial-miracle-20120403-1wax9.html
by shellbell on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:41 am
What did they say that was defamatory?
The problem with Thomson in his fairfax case was that you only sue someone if the accusations aren’t true… he learned that the hard way, cost the ALP something in the order of $100K in court costs from memory.
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:42 am
smithe
And his father Eddie was in the Legislative Council in NSW and a power broker who determined the fate of others within the ALP.
by MTBW on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:44 am
I protest.
Scanning the Age online a few minutes ago, I found an article comparing Howard’s position to Gillard’s – “nobody listens any more” etc. and suggesting that because Howard recovered, Gillard can. It had Grattan saying the same things about Howard then as Gillard now.
Now the article seems to have disappeared. I stupidly can’t remember the title or the author. Can anyone help?
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:47 am
Do your own research. I bet it amounts to 4/5ths of bugger all. Maybe 2 dollars per person each year. What’s that amount to? A packet of cigarettes every five years?
What about the funding support for local fishing and shooting clubs to name just two groups that the government supports and will continue to support? Should their funding be stripped away?
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:47 am
gw
You want justice for members of a UNION? What do you think we are, members of your Dunce Hat club?
The only thing you conservatives want is to union members is grind their bones to make your bread.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:47 am
FFS is Abbott now posting under Truthies account?
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:49 am
Front Page today
http://www.theage.com.au/frontpage/2012/04/04/frontpage.pdf
Handy list of articles in the paper edition, in order
http://www.theage.com.au/todays-paper
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/building-watchdog-shambles-20120403-1wb06.html
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pokie-venues-accused-of-circumventing-atm-ban-20120403-1wava.html
by Leroy on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:49 am
Lizzie yes but not the name but i was surprised to read his title wtte somerging about political reporter, i had never seen his name before
by my say on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:52 am
I just want to delve a little outside the chat on the HSU and Newman’s stupid book decision.
The win by the CSIRO is extraordinary and should have been a national celebratory moment. It should have been a time for reflection on what we are capable of as a Nation and what we are doing right now that could be the next wireless (or black box recorder or cochlear implant etc).
It should have been a Prime Ministerial announcement. As Prime Minister she gets first dibs on announcing anything the government does. It should not have been left to be announcement by bureaucrats. It should have been her doing the radio and tv rounds in the morning. She should have been on the rounds the following day handing out grants to the next new big thing. She should be appointing Barry Jones as Australia’s innovator-in-residence.
by bluegreen on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:52 am
Ah. Got it! Good old google.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/let-me-remind-you-its-2001-john-howard-is-facing-disaster-20120402-1w8nl.html
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:52 am
On #Slynews @TurnbullMalcolm said Labor cant manage money. Malcolm, read & weep – http://t.co/kKeIyVjI – ALP best manager of money
by The Finnigans on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:53 am
Oh won’t this be fun to watch! Being grilled by proper highly qualified QC’s and all too;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/03/rupert-murdoch-james-phone-hacking-inquiry
I bet ‘tickets’ are selling fast for this lot!
Apparently Cameron and Blair are to be called to appear too.
by grantplant on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:54 am
This won’t make the Pope, the Curia, Opus Dei, Catholic Action, Pell, Abbott etc happy (with good audio): Christoph Schoenborn, Austrian Cardinal, OKs Gay Man For Parish Council
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:56 am
@TurnbullMalcolm on #Slynews just said that China will provide more leadership in Climate Change than USA. It’s also a dig at Abbott
by The Finnigans on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:57 am
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/04/casey-crime-spree-questions-from-public-forms-appear-to-contain-forged-signatures-vexnews-exclusively-reveals/
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/clover-moore-is-compelled-to-choose-between-being-an-mp-or-lord-mayor/story-e6freuzi-1226318009603
http://www.afr.com/p/business/marketing_media/murdoch_quits_as_bskyb_chairman_FtYaVBIjgAY0iRyU2DqMoK
http://www.afr.com/p/national/news_corp_glass_jaw_surprises_fairfax_VJ6M4FA1PfdwavqF3RFh9M
by Leroy on Apr 4, 2012 at 8:58 am
Bushfire:
The Tories always do this. They castigate and bag the public service from sun up til sundown when they’re in opposition. All aspects of the public service are just stooges for Labor govts and are clearly biased against the Coalition. It is always ‘bloated’ and has increased by x-fold during Labor years. Then when they hit the govt benches all of a sudden the public service is terrific again and they can’t get enough of them. Oh, at first they sack a bunch and hire private consulting firms to fill the gaps, which of course get expensive, so they quietly shuffle those contracts off and hire public servants again. Usually in much greater numbers than when Labor left office.
It’s all as predictable as “OMG Labor was hiding a super-mega-GI-NORMOUS black hole in the budget and now we have to cut every little tin-pot arts project, sack X% of public servants and sell off anything that’s not tied down to fill it”. They really are the most unimaginative and staid thinkers. No big picture projects with that lot.
by Fiz on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:01 am
lizzie,
Agree 100% on Gittens being a national treasure. On of the ecommentariat that understand the economy exists for the benefit of real people, not corporate persons.
by ratsak on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:03 am
Not only that, she also made claims last night that ministers were actively involved and meddling in the Fair Work investigation. She only just stopped short at using terms like “perverting the course of justice”. Uhlmann tried to get her to pin a name on the minister but she held her tongue. Just.
by Fiz on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:05 am
Can anyone remember the name of the Liberal bloke mentioned by Craig Emerson yesterday. I only caught the tail end of the Sky grab about it but Emmo said that Andrew ? (was it Laming) had voted with the Howard Govt. 50 times while charges against him were being investigated by the DPP.
Talk about double standards with Brandis and Abetz.
by BH on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:09 am
Is Brandis demanding O’Farrell stand down?
by Son of foro on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:13 am
BH – I think it was Andrew Laming, participated in 50 plus votes or something
by womble on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:13 am
http://tinyurl.com/7m6aroa (click google link)
by Leroy on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:17 am
from Wikipedia
In 2007, Laming and fellow Queensland Liberal MHRs, Gary Hardgrave and Ross Vasta, were investigated and subsequently cleared of breaches relating to parliamentary entitlements. This included A$67,000 for printing campaign material and Laming’s five-day employment of a staff member who worked in the office of Gary Hardgrave. There was speculation in the media and the Queensland Parliament that funds had been diverted to the Liberals’ 2006 state election campaign.[19] On 2 March 2007, the Australian Federal Police conducted a search on the three MHRs’ electoral offices as well as those of a printing company and a graphic artist.[20][21] Laming described the incident as a “routine visit”, while Liberal state leader Bruce Flegg noted that “this is one of a number of printers that would be regularly used by both the party and its members”, and that he was not aware of anything untoward.[22]
On 13 August Ross Vasta was cleared and Gary Hardgrave was cleared on 11 September. On 28 September 2007, the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions cleared Laming of any impropriety in the matter.[23][24]
by womble on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:17 am
It must be difficult for Labor people north of the Tweed these days muttley and I do feel sorry for them. There but for the grace of Dog………I too could be holding-out in a socialist bunker in the Valley waiting for the relief column that’ll never arrive.
It was a very long term Government, to be sure, and the proportion of seats to votes won is a disgrace and indicative of problems on a pretty fundamental level.
Having said all that, however, the viciousness with which Queenslanders turned on Bligh was a disgrace. She’d made errors, for certain (like flogging public assets against the clear will of the people) but from where this mexican sits, she seemd to have done a pretty good job of managing the State over one of the worst 12-18 month periods it has had to endure.
Yet little thanks did she recieve, and still they went her for Mr FlimFlam.
As for Joh, I think the Marrickville Mauler got his number spot-on last night:
by smithe on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:19 am
Fiz wrote:
It just goes to show the nonsense that’s the claim conservatives are good at managing the economy. Economies are dynamic. Conservatives are not.
by Cuppa on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:23 am
Morning bludgers
Appreciate all the great links and posts this morning.
James Murdoch steps down form BSB Sky!
Abbott, Brandis, Kathy Jackson, all preempting the FWA report.
As some bludgers pointed out, this does have a Gretchy feel to it all.
The fibs for short term gain will say and do anything.
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:25 am
yes yes. I think we all knw who he is MTBW.
The fact remains there are many ALP types who have little love for Eddie. Or his son.
There will be many a dry-eye on the Left if Mo has to pay that $12 million back, I can assure you.
by smithe on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:26 am
grrr damn Centerlink.
by zoidlord on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:28 am
Damn straight. For 40 years there’s been an unfair trade between Qld and Victoria: Qld sends its young, talented people to Melbourne; and in return Victoria sends its crusty One Nation retirees to Harvey Bay.
by Son of foro on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:28 am
Great comment from MM and perfectly true. But I can see the pendulum swing back with equal momentum in a few years time if Cando’s record as Lord Mayor is anything to go by.
The Sale of Assetts shocked me at the time and, along with Bligh’s bagging Cando and coming up empty handed are the reasons Bligh got rolled IMO, but we sure didn’t deserve this result.
However, as my old boss used to say, “When much is given, much is required.” : )
by muttleymcgee on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:30 am
Meanwhile front page of the Herald Sun, it is about the saga of Melbourne Coach being accused of racist behaviour. Turns out it is untrue, and the finger was pointed an an indigenous player.
During the footy season, politics does not get a look in!!
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:31 am
Can you imagine if the same sordid saga of BOF & his closest advisor happens with PM Gillard. By now, she be lynched by the #MSMhacks mob
by The Finnigans on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:31 am
It’s going to be a tough decision for preselectors in Dobell.
Presumably, Thomson won’t have been done for anything at preselection time. Do the preselectors dump on him or cut and run?
And what if they dump on him and he ends up never being found guilty of anything?
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:32 am
Btw has anyone bothered to read Grattan’s piece today?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/when-air-of-mystery-favours-abbott-20120403-1wat0.html
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:35 am
The finnigans
Agreed. Btw do the people mentioned in the FWA know they are being referred to the DPP? That is one aspect of the matter I am unclear about
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:37 am
What if the court case is during the election campaign?
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:37 am
So no one here thinks that a $200 plus million win by the CSIRO should not have been a Prime Ministerial announcement?
by bluegreen on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:37 am
I wish that on Lateline last night Penny Wong had put much more emphasis on the necessity to separate politics and the justice system. She sorta said it, but not strongly enough to overcome the shouting from the Coal. Abbott is spinning Labor’s hands-off as if it is self-serving, hinting that there’s definitely something hidden in the woodshed.
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:37 am
BB
That piece @ 2384 was once of your finest offerings. Thankyou so much.
by BK on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:38 am
Did Gerry have anything to do with this?
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/hometech/grey-imports-hundreds-of-dollars-to-be-saved-20120403-1w9zr.html
by Peter of Marino on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:38 am
I did try, Bluegreen! The court win was my first post of the morning the day the news broke (Monday?). But it’s winter. If many south of the Murray are paying attention to a non-sport, non-political topic, I’d be shocked & amazed! But research shows that need for a “cheering” fix is typical of areas with cold wet winters.
The right to announce such breakthroughs, btw, is the prerogative of the organisation’s CEO or appointed proxy, not a political figure. For PM Gillard to pre-empt the CSIRO’s announcement would be a belittling (& resented) breach of protocol. After that, her (and/or the relevant minister’s) job is to ensure the achievement is lauded in Hansard.
BTW: there’s been another Big Win: Australia, S. Korea create giant telescope
Never mind that Sciences (esp CSIRO, CSL, IT, medicine) and arts, film & TV, pump far more into the Oz economy than sport, are so well recognised internationally that Aussies (inc myself) are engaged in conversations about them in museums & galleries, train stations & in trains, coffee shops (where the Aussie Flat White, having conquered London, is currently doing likewise in New York), even at concerts and plays (as they do about our economy & the Treasurer they wish they had).
As PB braces for the onslaught of AFL hysteria, I can only wish our Arts & Scientific genius attracted a tenth of the enthusiasm.
We are a seriously dumbed-down nation!
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:38 am
Gez muttley, who was your boss? Spiderman?
by smithe on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:39 am
bluegreen
Sorry, can hardly catch up on this blog sometimes. Did anyone of any political weight announce it at all? I’m not hearing enough strong messages on anything atm.
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:40 am
Page 15 of the Herald Sun has devoted a few paragraphs to Murdoch stepping down.
What a laugh.
Murdoch on the move.
In a nutshell, James Murdoch steps down from BSB to concentrate on his father’s television business! Wow what in depth reportage. That took all of 20 seconds to read
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 9:40 am