Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The government needs to launch the mother of all advertising campaigns.
The media are not going to come to their collective sense anytime soon.
Even if Gillard cops it over another broken commitment (political advertising) it’ll still focus a lot of peoples attention on the scoreboard.
Ok. Shoot me down.
by rosemour on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:54 am
Another dreadful poll for Labor, and once again the Gillard apologists on Poll Bludger are seeking to dismiss the result as either a one-off or a statistical quirk or the product of extreme sexism against the supposedly magnificent Queen Julia.
Such is the sense of unreality exuded by Poll Bludger.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:55 am
Womble,
Utter bullshite if I may say so. If Labor, whatever the polls say, change leaders again I, for one, will consign the party to the scrapheap.
Please people, get it into your heads that it is NOT the Leader and it is not policies, that has got Labor in strife. If you think laterally and cease being led by the nose by the despicable opposition leader and his msm and billionaire backers, you will see clearly what this negative campaigning is all about.
Was listening to Mark Textor on Sunday night profile – might be an idea if you look for the transcript and read what he said. He is the architect of this tactic the coalition are using. Constant repetition of “a bad government”, “incompetent”, “everything they touch goes bad”,
“THIS Prime Minister ….., “she lied”, “she’s got a big arse”. Say it all often enough (and they have several times a day on a daily basis) the meme sticks in voter’s mind so that is all they hear.
What Labor needs is a couple of billionaires willing to spend a few million dollars putting out “positive” ads to counter the attacks of the coalition.
by janice2 on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:55 am
And if the best person they’ve got to sell the supposed benefits of carbon pricing is Greg Combet…….they truly are screwed.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:58 am
janice2
Good to hear from you. I believe the govt will start advertising its achievements in the second half of the year. The budget announcements will be a determining factor as to the direction of their advertising. Thank goodness our PM has a steel spine!!!
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 8:58 am
Mega on the BISONs
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/on_the_cost_of_living/
by The Finnigans on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:00 am
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-has-faith-in-poll-resurrection-20120401-1w6b7.html
http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/one-eyed-economists-99-is-not-same-as.html
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/on_the_cost_of_living/
by Leroy on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:00 am
The usual suspects saying Doom to Labor for last 18 months.
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:00 am
Phillip Coorey is the favoured journalist of the Gillard camp, so of course they’d leak something like that to him.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:01 am
Since Julia beat K Rudd in the leadership contest, Labor’s primary vote has declined by 7-8 points – very indicative.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:02 am
as I said yesterday the ALP could change leaders and get away with it.
Gillard commits hari kari.
She makes an address to the nation which knocks peoples socks off. Garners truck loads of sympathy – a la Beazley – and hands over to…..?
Some will see it as natural justice, some will lament, the incoming clean skin will have no blood on HIS hands……level-ish playing field for the government to fight the election.
Or, look on the bright side. We elect governments to do the stuff they want to do for a term at a time. We shouldn’t be greedy. By any measure the Rudd/Gillard government has been overwhelmingly good for and ungratefull country.
Oh, and Abbott will call a DD 7 months into his first term.
by rosemour on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:03 am
Which was a failure of NBN of projecting this happening. Other companies deal with things not going their own way all the time, they don’t blame someone else…
Malcolm and the Libs have changed their position and said they are having a full review of the NBN as well as a Cost-Benefit analysis.
The NBN is too far embedded now that they can’t easily scrap it.
Like Medicare which was a mess after Whitlam introduced it, the NBN will be a mess after Gillard introduces it…. and as usual the Liberals will come in and clean up the mess and give a working, non-socialist system
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:10 am
The connection between 2pp and preferred PM has always been an enigma. A change of leader per se will do little or make things worse but a change of leader who can change direction and have no baggage could swing things around very quickly. Gillard is unelectable whatever preferred PM polls may show. Smith or Combet or maybe someone else (not Shorten) can come out and say “we’ve heard the people” and defer introduction of carbon tax which is the single biggest emotive issue and has nothing to do with the parameters of the scheme but all to do with the history of its introduction and the fact (not perception) that it will do nothing for the environment. For interest I do “private polling” and try to get an opinion out of every tradie or postie or shopkeeper or friend or kids’ friends and it’s astounding how despised Julie Gillard is. It’s all to do with the leader and what she is associated with and it shows how on the nose she is if LNP led by Abbott is a poll shoe-in. I voted for her, with little enthusiasm after the terrible election campaign and have since despaired particularly with her unnecessary pandering to the Greens, so give a clean skin a go to shake off the baggage and revive fortunes, not Rudd of course. She lied to me as well and to everyone on this blog. I believed her when on the last day of the campaign she and Swan said there would be no carbon tax.
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:14 am
Janice can you, or anyone else here, honestly say Julia is doing a good job at winning people over???
If the numbers haven’t turned around by Christmas it makes perfect sense to roll the dice and try someone else – would be mad not too, as bad as it will look. Hopefully the numbers have improved by then though and we can focus on the good stuff that’s going on rather than the flogging that the polls show will happen
A big advertising campaign would be an awful mistake, advertising costs money, the government is scraping together all the loose change it can find to meet this stupid commitment to a budget surplus – cutting things and then spending money advertising would be a terrible look I’d suggest
by womble on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:14 am
non-socialist?
The government has created an asset.
If the ALP didn’t create stuff the Know-Nothing Party would have nothing to sell off or to manage.
by rosemour on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:15 am
@GeeWizz/261
What a load of rubbish.
There was no failer on NBN side.
Telstra SAU failed with the ACCC so it had to be modified.
The ACCC also had delayed it’s decision on POI Deployment.
Two external entities of which NBNCo and Goverment have no control.
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:16 am
Great news that there isn’t one, hey?
by Son of foro on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:17 am
Utter Utter Bullsheet.
Sick of hearing this little lie from Labor supporters because their party is doing so badly.
If it’s about sex, why did Bligh win in a landslide back in 2009? Surely the bloke should have easily won?
Or perhaps… just maybe… they told so many lies that people finally got sick of them and want to now vote them out?
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:18 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/health/disability-groups-hail-3bn-insurance-plan/story-fn59nokw-1226315910843
by Leroy on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:18 am
So NBN’s plans are the responsibility of others?
Take some responsibility for christ sakes
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:19 am
And I should correct myself – it was Telstra’s Separation Plan – not Telstra’s SAU.
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:20 am
stanny
David Murray is stupid and arrogant enough to think he knows more than thousands of climate scientists about… climate science. He shares this with Mr Abbott and Mr Joyce. I understand from the polls that they are likely to become our next prime minister and deputy prime minister.
How thick is that?
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:20 am
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3926114.html
by Leroy on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:21 am
I’m not so sure that there has been a seismic shift in poitical reality here.
I think what we’re seeing is a Country in the throes of a sort of national ADD episode.
Possum predicted just after the 2010 election that we’d be facing a progressive, deliberate and gradually more hysterical unhinging of the right-side of politics here and so indeed it has come to pass.
A masterfully astroturfed and managed campaign has turned-us into a quivering angst-ridden, self-pitying wreck of a people.
So, is this some sort of new base-line in Australian politics? Are we condemned to remain political crack-heads forevermore?
Not a chance, IMHO.
We’re far too laid back and lazy for that on any long-term basis.
You’ve gotta be an American style fruitcake to go for this stuff long-term. It takes real dedication. Timothy McVeigh dedication. David Koresh dedication.
We don’t do that stuff here.
No.Sooner or later some stubbie-wearing bogan, somewhere, is gonna ask the question: “WTF is this shit? My job’s OK. My health is OK. My family is OK, I’ve paid-off my house, I can afford the car. I’ve got plenny of beer in the fridge and the dog still loves me. Why am I sitting here shaking like a farquing junkie? And who is that wangker on the TV with the speedoes talking about boats?”
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:21 am
@GeeWizz/269
What sort of excuse is that.
Telstra’s Separation Plan is the responsibility of Telstra.
ACCC responsibility (To extend the Deployment of POI Placement) was the responsibility of ACCC.
Stop being a poor troll and get with the program.
NBN can’t control every aspect as it has to rely on 3rd party.
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:22 am
GW
You can’t wish away the gender imabalance in the polling. What are you so shy about? That the Coalition has a significant proportion of misogynist male supporters?
Or is that you recognise, but don’t want to acknowledge, that Mr Abbott is creepy?
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:22 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-02/driver-mistakenly-declared-dead/3926638
Any analogy for the ALP in this?
by bluegreen on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:23 am
Failing to separate the distribution and content arms of Telstra during the privatisation process was one of the biggest ever Howard Government FAILs.
Thank goodness Labor has been able to fix it.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:24 am
Who writes NBN business plans? Telstra?
If NBN Co have absolutely no insight into what they are doing, then that makes them incompetent
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:25 am
It does show what abrave lady is, julia, she was in qld, this week , i wouldnt go if they paid me to.
You would be set upon, to confess whom u vore for, i had a email pal in a south state of the us
Who told me she wss to s ared to discuss politics there, i think aust is becoming a divide, now do u win elections in states in that case firget them up there,
Concentrate in the south, a bit of nsw, and NT may just a bit in wa, dont want any of my taxes spent inqld. Bet tbey like their next pension rise though,
by my say on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:25 am
The other massive comms failure by the Howard Government was the Heath Robinson effect arising from a variety of platforms, distribution systems and content providers that was the outcome of a non-existent broadband policy.
The result was a pepperpotted shambles.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:26 am
Julia Gilliard didn’t lie to me!
Sounds like your private polling is of great assistance to Abbott and vested interests.
by Dr John on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:28 am
Pull the other one Mick, it’s got bells on it, mate.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:28 am
http://tinyurl.com/6mw84zg (click google link)
by Leroy on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:28 am
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHhahahhahahahahaa…
That’s actually funny because the one thing the Labor Party has been absolutely crystal clear about since about 2004 is the need to price carbon. That if we don’t actually do something then we are consigning future generations to a massively expensive ‘adapt or die’ strategy. When we finally have to face the writing on the wall just imagine what a fifty or sixty percent contraction of GDP will look like. If you’re not dead you’ll be pining for that $23 per tonne carbon price.
Don’t suppose you happened to watch that terrific series on ABC last night – Time Travellers Guide to Australia? At the end of the Permian age the atmosphere was flooded with CO2 due to volcanic activity. The oceans turned acidic. Upwards of 90% of all species became extinct. We may not be facing a Permian extinction event, but we are certainly facing a cataclysm beyond anything in human history. I guess all we can do is hope we can adapt fast enough. But you keep telling yourself it’s all about an extra buck fifty you will pay on your electricity each week.
by Fiz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:28 am
Smithe they now dress him in suits, they are trying the next idea, may be then mayrol robes.
Emperors clothes, trilby hats are in fashion , short back sides, , lets see,
by my say on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:29 am
The gender numbers are interesting, aren’t they.
Women have a problem with Tony Abbott.
Men have a problem with Julia Gillard.
by Fiz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:30 am
Mick and his ‘private polling.’
FMDead.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:30 am
Liar, liar pants on fire?
52% of those polled believe they will be worse off under the carbon tax.
In other words, they have swallowed the lies of Mr Abbott, the MSM and business interests who have been promising rack and ruin over the carbon tax for well over a year and a half. These hypocritical liars have had the gall to call Ms Gillard a liar.
There is 17 months left for folk to discover:
(a) that many will be better-off under the compensation mechanisms
(b) that many will not be worse off.
BTW, business is arguing in the current minimum wage case that workers will be ‘over compensated’ for the carbon tax and that therefore carbon pricing should not be accepted as a reason for increasing the minimum wage.
In other words business, when the rubber hits the roat, is giving the lie to Mr Abbott, to many of its previous statemetns and to substantical elements of the MSM>
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:31 am
Le roy do i read in the uk, its in reverse, when will the idiots wake, a few links here for wiz
From the guardian may help him understand and rummel just what they would get
by my say on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:32 am
Danny
Will only write this post cos I have lots to do but you comented on my son’s reaction. Well to put it in perspective he will go Greens first then Labor – voted Labor in the state election. His view was that the sheer unrestrained nastiness of the attack on Rudd meant that Labor federally should be punished for quite a few years. Now of course that was a week or so after the Rudd/Gillard ballot and he may have calmed down by now.
However I suspect he was just reflecting the view of other young professionals.
As I have said before, election planning should be for about 15 months – at the earliest and latest and 18 months at the latest. I think that Gillard will need to call (not hold) the election by 21 August. The media hype if they go beyond three years will be enormous. I would think therefore that the latest an election can be held realistically is 1st week in October (yes I know technically it could be November, but think as this will be the first time a government has gone over three years it woulod be a risky strategy.
by daretotread on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:32 am
Smithe, when I retired 15b yrs ago, there was already a substantial data pool showing that, in most households, women manage their families’ domestic budgets. I don’t imagine that, in the last decade and a half, men have taken over the role; in fact, given that most married/ partnered women now work, I can’t imagine that’s changed. BTW, they’re also more likely to complain about overcharging and poor service/ workmanship – probably because they do budget.
Thus it’s more likely to be women who register increases & decreases – and complain about rip-offs – and they already prefer Julia Gillard.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:33 am
Barrie Cassidy picks apart Gillard’s answer on the “carbon tax”.
While he might be right about the way the interview could have gone if she had answered differently and not said “I’m happy to call it a tax”, there is no question in my mind that the msm are supporting Abbott in their insistence on quoting “there will never be a tax…” at every bloody opportunity, virtually every day.
With no qualification.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-30/cassidy-labors-fate-and-carbon-tax-hindsight/3922204
by lizzie on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:33 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/01/government-email-social-network-surveillance
Well now lets see
by my say on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:34 am
@GeeWizz/278
I see you trying to change the topic – don’t, because you failed it badly.
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:34 am
We’ve been too shy in attributing all the recent weather disasters to climate change. What has been happening has been modelled by the CSIRO. Now we’ve gone through a strong la Nina, we’ll get to teeter back to the other side. Maybe one of the best things that can happen for Julia Gillard is for us to have a long, hot summer that starts in September just to remind voters what it’s like to have your grass brown off in summer.
God it’s depressing that people can’t seem to focus long enough to inform themselves about what we are facing with climate change.
by Fiz on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:34 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/02/executive-pay-ftse-firms
Mmm more for others
by my say on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:35 am
Womble,
She has won over those people who are capable of thinking and can smell rotten rats mingling in their midst. If people had a bit of spine and would speak up and challenge the bullshite that Abbott and co spruik, then a lot more would be “won over”. Instead, these people say nothing when their friends/acquaintances spruik the anti-govt meme because they want to be liked and fear that speaking out for the govt will cause them to be sidelined in the friends stakes. There are those who are appalled at the disgusting treatment dished out to the PM but when it comes to defending her they remain silent. Just like the uingrateful pensioners who can’t bring themselves to give thanks to a Labor govt for giving them the means to live more comfortably.
If the Labor Party even give a passing thought to going to the 2013 election without Julia Guillard at the helm, they would not deserve to win it and I repeat, I would consign them to the scrap heap.
by janice2 on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:35 am
On the cheerful side:
*Not so bad in the Southern states – whiel Red Neck states – and to an extent NSW, another matter
*Despite all, still 18 months to go and this is a long time in politics
*People are just not talking about politics at the moment.
*In the West, one small item on about page 7 about the current poll – and fairly balanced at that.
*The government may be unpopular with some, but not all.
*What the government is trying to do with the CT is not popular but when has ever bringing a new tax in been popular?
*Rudd or anyone else would make no difference to Labor’s fortunes at the moment
*It is the 2PP which is important for election not the noted 27% primary though it does beg the question of why 8% of the electorate – calling themselves Labor supporters – are voting for the enemy.
*Julia Gillard has shown no sign of buckling and this is all to the good. If she goes other than by her own choice, all bets are off for 2013.
*The conservative hacks here can gloat all they like but they are no closer to government now than they were in 2010. They still have at least as long in opposition and then some if the Southern Drift of support for Labor gets into NSW.
*There is potential for Labor to pick up in NSW the longer things go so as to make Queensland’s nominally toxic to Labor stance less of a concern.
*WA is still weak for Labor but I still think they can retain at least their three seats regardless. Barnett and the 57% increase in power costs is not popular.
Have a good day!
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:36 am
To all those who apparently weren’t lied to maybe you weren’t watching the last frantic days before the polls when things were looking bad for Labor. Abbott said Labor would bring in a carbon tax and Gillard accused LNP of wanting to bring back workchoices. The denials and accusations occupied the airwaves for 24-48 hours. SHE LIED bludgers, and has never recovered from that. The 150 person committee disappeared into the arms of the smiling Bob Brown and that’s the image – cosy up to the Greens, quite unnecessarily, and well the electorate will understand the backflip. But it didn’t and doesn’t.
by Mick77 on Apr 2, 2012 at 9:37 am