Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Barnaby Joyce is great value, loved his bit on Craig Thomson the other night on 7:30 report.
Heres a video of what he thinks of Craig Thomson “I didin Do It!” claim:
http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2011/08/barnaby-joyce-on-craig-thomson.html
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:36 pm
The Daily Telegraph online does not appear to think this is big news for voters in Western Sydney. Online site has the HSU stuff hidden in breaking. When they want to they put it in bold at the top of the page.
Interesting insight to political importance I think.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Diogs,
However, the maladminsitration is well known and been widely reported over a number of years.
While no crimes have yet been identified, it is pretty clear that the HSU had institutionalised inappropriate guidelines and practices.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:37 pm
zoidlord
Me as well it is a weeping wound that isn’t going away.
In the meantime we should also give a thought those in that Union whose work does not bring great rewards seeing just how their union dues are spent.
by MTBW on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Looks like GW has Thomson hung, drawn and quartered already. So much for the presumption of innocence.
by Gary on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Mr Reith may be keeping his head down on the subject of corruption due to his connection to Tenix.
by CTar1 on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Gary,
I doubt this will generate any heat apart from those who would not vote Labor anyway.
As for Gee Whiz and his new found love for hospital workers, I doubt he could spell HSU.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Gary….
As Barnaby Joyce has said there are two possibilities.
One is that someone broke into Craig Thomsons house, stole his credit card, drivers license, mobile phone… used his mobile phone to book the appointment, drove down to Sydney, is a splitting image of Craig Thomson because he supplied his driver license, is a great caligraphy artist because he signed exactly like Craig Thomson… then went all the way back up the Central Coast, broke back in and put everything back where it was.
The thief did this on several different occassions weeks and months apart.
As Barnaby said… the other crazy crackpot idea is that… it was… in fact… Craig Thomson. No way!
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Reith would say he was caught and punished with five years banishment to the wasteland of Paris in a job no-one’s ever heard of before or since.
Reith paid the penalty.
Now that he’s reformed, he has a perfect right to speak out against the evil of credit cards, abuse of power, lying to the public, using hookers and fiddling expenses.
God loveth the repentant sinner.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:44 pm
Mike Carlton, Sydney Morning Herald, 13 February 2010
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/all-for-nought-as-barnaby-gets-a-job-in-the-counting-house-20100212-nxem.html
by Cuppa on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Geewizz
You and Barnaby never had friends come over to stay on a regular basis?
You are trying Craig Thomson in a Blog as Joyce has done in the media.
This leaves legal action open to Thomson.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Then this is going to get remarkably messy.
To date, all the opposition has to run with is a propriety angle. Its “seen” to be “not right” and the ALP should hand over Government to the Libs on that basis.
For some reason they haven’t twigged that this game is played according to big boys (and girls) rules. We actually have defined rules and rule of law in this country, which are particularly important when the stakes (Government of the Country anyone!!) are high.
The Govt is sticking to those rules, and if anyone has PROOF they are not they should be coming forward with it. The process in something like this where it there are serious accusations to be dealt with is remarkably important. The DPP has had the matter referred to them and will deal. Let them do so.
If the DPP want to release all or part of the report then they will, AFTER they have had a think about whether or not releasing the report will or may prejudice and actions they may consider taking.
To release it before, simply because a particular political party “demands” it would be just plain silly. The DPP are not going to want to take even a slight chance on poisoning any potential actions because if they did, the next thing the Fiberals would be off on would be a witch hunt through the DPP for whoever released it, to prejudice proceedings, to protect the Govt!!!
All of which will go down well in froot loop conspiracy theory blogs no doubt.
by imacca on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Thomas Paine
+1
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:48 pm
oops sorry scratch that. last.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:49 pm
What does the HSU do if it is tossed from the ACTU and is already out of Labor?
Plod on? Re-invent itself after a purge? Fold and reincarnate under a new name? Disband and have its members go elsewhere?
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Fairfax made the allegations.
Thomson took fairfax to defamation court. He failed, cost the ALP $100,000 in legal fee’s otherwise CT would have had to declare bankruptcy. He then tried to claim that fairfax did an out of court settlement with him… which was yet another CT untruth.
You should keep up with the news mate.
One great thing about the CT vs Fairfax case was that the case allowed Fairfax to legally force brothels and CT’s Telephone Company to hand over confidential information regarding Craig Thomson, which ended up netting his phone calls…. an interesting scan of CT’s drivers license… and receipts.
It’s a shame it didn’t drag on longer before CT threw in the towel, we might have got some CCTV vision as well.
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Gee Whiz,
I know you are getting excited and well may need the services of a knock shop to quell your fever. However, playing sexual prurient politics and enjoying the innuendo doesn’t mean you’ve got evidence of a crime. Sure people are shocked and outraged. However, I doubt anyone will be deciding to vote Labor/Liberal on this issue.
The importance of the issue for the Libs was in trying to force an early election. I’d say that possibility has now passed. So, despite the publicity, Abbott is the loser again.
Action like the ACTUs to disaffiliate the union and tell the HSU to get their house in order will impress voters more than the titillation you and the Libs seem to adore. Abbott comparing this to the Fitzgerald Inquiry into Queensland this morning is a sign of a desperate man.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:53 pm
I don’t know why the ACTU is kicking out the HSU, CT is in the Labor Party
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm
@GeeWizz
I referred to comments by you and Senator Barnaby Joyce. Not Fairfax.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Robyn Archer is good. Speaking at the National Press Club. Making Canberra sound attractive.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:56 pm
GW, if this was happening to the Liberals you’d be on here telling us that “it’s only a scratch”.
by Gary on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:57 pm
GG I agree that the CT case may drag on.
What this is however is a disgrace for the Labor Party… a party that claims to be for the workers and union membership. Now it’s looking like an Old Boys Club protecting Union Heavies who may or may not have ripped off their members.
Labor had a choice in this to stand up for the little guys and it’s union members, but they instead have basically spat on these people to try and hold onto power. As I said they should have forced CT out and make him sit as an Independent… Now they take full responsibility for him and his actions.
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 12:59 pm
@GW
The problem for the Coalition is that in their eagerness to see Labor fall they have trashed due process. Innocent until proven innocent etc. Just look to Queensland to see how voters react to such tactics.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Off topic, but …. the Adelaide Advertiser gives Lord Downer a weekly column to pontificate on politics and peddle his prejudices.
This week’s column is hilarious. Downer looks at Nelson Mandela and Aung San Suu Kyi, “two people who have been lionised more than anyone on earth by the media”.
“I assmued, before meeting them, they would both be calm, rather quiet and ceremoniously polite,” he writes.
“Well, I was wrong. When I did meet them, I found them feisty and surprisingly aggressive, particularly Suu Kyi.”
Good gracious, she did not agree with some propositions he put to her. It was even worse than that. “She speaks flawless English with an Oxford accent and even had the audacity to challenge the grammar I used in a particular sentence.”
Challenging His Lordship’s grammar? This woman will stop at nothing.
by Toorak Toff on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Diogenes @ 2614
Same thing that Dean Mighel at ETU did when ETU was disaffiliated
(might have been CFMEU – but if my memory serves me well . . . . )
by billie on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:02 pm
They have succeeded in holding on to power. I think this is what irks you.
Your side would do EXACTLY the same thing, and has in the past.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Toorak Toff
LOL thanks
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Gee Whiz,
Just more rhetorical flourish from you. Rants might make you feel good. But, aren’t a substitute for due process and actually doing something to sort out the problems.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:04 pm
billie
You got it right it was the ETU.
by MTBW on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:06 pm
GW@2617
I don’t know why the ACTU is kicking out the HSU
What has been reported in the Universe I live in, is that the ACTU are calling a meeting tomorrow to consider suspending the HSU.
There is rather a huge difference between “suspending” and “kicking out”. However, facts may not matter in your Universe
by Brian Mc on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:08 pm
If Craig Thomson has to resign and a by-election were called, would Labor retain his seat?
I assume not, as he is putting up with this relentless campaign
by billie on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Let’s hope I haven’t sent PB into long-term italics mode.
by Brian Mc on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Okay wel I will rephrase….
I don’t know why the ACTU is “suspending” HSU, Craig Thomson is in the Labor Party
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Has anyone seen Thomson say acknowledge he was named in the report?
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Dio
There is a bs headline not borne out in the story:
http://www.news.com.au/national/thomson-agrees-hes-been-named-in-report-but-no-idea-of-the-outcome/story-e6frfkvr-1226318393769
by shellbell on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Diogs,
Thomson actually said he had no idea if he was one of those named in the report.
Further, he said he found out about its forwarding to the Fed Police on Twitter.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:15 pm
GeeWhiz, you’re are still jumping the gun The ACTU meets tomorrow to consider suspension. It could well be that they decide to go down that track, but that’s for tomorrow. When and if they do you’ll be able to get excited again.
by Brian Mc on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Aleander Downer obviously does not support Tony Abbott based on his views of Suu Kyi:
by shellbell on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Toorak Toff
Good god Lord Downer of Baghdad sounds like Samuel Johnson
by poroti on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:18 pm
shellbell and GG
Looks like he hasn’t acknowledged it at all.
More top notch reporting.
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:18 pm
GeeWizz
From what I have read the FWA investigation found something like 180 breaches in their investigation into the Union. That would be the reason behind the ACTU taking action against the HSU. Thompson is a separate issue.
by MTBW on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:19 pm
And Jackson is in the HSU. You don’t read the reports do you – you simply pass judgement based on what your favourite politician like Joyce and Abbott has to say.
That’s extremely shallow of you but not at all surprising.
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:22 pm
by Dee on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:24 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3932142.html
more in the article
by Leroy on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Prediction – Abbott is creating an excuse to refuse to pair CT in future. Politics is an ugly art.
by DavidWH on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:25 pm
I wonder what the approval rating of Senator Brandis is. Known to voters for Thomson case.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:29 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/a-quantum-theory-of-mitt-romney.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general
An amusing ‘take’ on Mitt Romney, but I have news for the author: Romney isn’t the first quantum politician, we have one of our own:
by zoomster on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:31 pm
wizzer/Truthie @ 2632
You really are thick as a brick!
There are clearly problems with the HSU, at the very least lax administration and accounting procedures. The ACTU does not want to be associated with that or appear to condone it.
No-one in the government even knows if Thomson is one of those named. It is all innuendo and Tones fevered imagination.
by bemused on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:31 pm
I think you are correct. Mind you it won’t amount to anything as CT will turn up for work each day parliament sits. His recent illness won’t be a factor. Abbott will simply add to his image of being poisonous and duplicitous.
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:31 pm
TH it concerns me just a little that I am siding with the PB majority today. Perhaps I have been spending too much time with mum.
by DavidWH on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:35 pm