Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
PM doing Presser announcing 700 new jobs in Western Sydney
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:36 pm
PM presser, sky
by mickt on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Did Julia just thank News Ltd papers?
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:38 pm
DavidWH
Maybe so. I reckon now that you have seen the back of QLD Labor you will feel at peace with the world for quite a while
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Irony its News Limited related
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:38 pm
DavidWH
Stockholm Syndrome.
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Completely off topic but now I really feel old:
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/the-new-fab-four-beatles-sons-may-form-band-20120404-1wbv0.html
by MTBW on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:39 pm
DavidWH @ 2649
Comrade, your mother and my encouragement is working, you are being drawn across from the dark side.
Probably exposure to the full lunacy of wizzer/Truthie also helps.
Continue spending time with your mum. She will be proud of you.
by bemused on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Cando Newman abolished the Literary Awards that is only $244,000. That is very mean, you cant even buy good white shoes for that amount
by The Finnigans on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:40 pm
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=736262&vId=
more in the article
by Leroy on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Stockholm Sundrome arghhhhh I must escape
by DavidWH on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:41 pm
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=736284&vId=
more in the article
by Leroy on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:41 pm
DavidWH
That’s Ok “the PB majority” were in furious agreement with rummel just a while ago. It’s going a bit kumbaya. But fear not for we have GeeWizz to make sure we don’t fall into that trap.
by poroti on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Cloth-eared journos.
JG just slapped one down.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Laming getting a run.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:43 pm
God Juliar telling us Craig Thomson has publically said he is innocent.
Yes PM, but what about PRIVATELY? Thats the question the press was asking
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:43 pm
LOL
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:43 pm
DavidWH
You’ll be letterboxing Dobell for Thomson next.
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:44 pm
ABC95
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Has Can Do managed to get insurance for Queensland yet?
by Son of foro on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:44 pm
As I mentioned earlier it amounts to LESS THAN 6 cents per year for every man woman and child in Queensland.
Petty and backward in the extreme
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:45 pm
We’ve covered this many many many many times now.
This was one of many “only $244,000″ pet projects. By themselves they are tiny. Together they are a massive waste of QLD Taxpayer dollars.
If you can’t scrap “one tiny pet project”, you can’t scrap any of them.
Cando, Can Get Surplus
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:45 pm
BB @2351,
“Thomson could still end up turning this into a nice little earner if he is not charged.
Stock up on the popcorn.”
Enjoy your posts and agree with them mostly, however, have to disagree with you on this.
I thought this whole sorry mess was started (or re-started?) when Mr T brought defamation proceedings and then bailed from them?
Anyway, does it really matter if Mr T dodges the criminal proceedings bullet? Won’t that be a mere technicality that will be lost in the maelstrom of this most unedifying spectacle.
At its heart is the allegation that while Mr T was a senior executive of the HSU, significant amounts of Union funds, including a credit card for which Mr T was responsible, were apparently used for non Union purposes. I gather from Mr T’s public silence on this issue – and, yes, he has the legal, moral and common sense right to remain silent if he chooses – that there is no simple, rational and innocent explanation for the use of the funds. I am willing to bet London to a brick that when, and if, the full details of the report are released they will be, at the very least, highly embarrassing to all concerned.
Clearly, the PM will continue to be called upon to state whether Mr T has her support and confidence. She will continue to say yes, at least at this stage. This will no doubt be portrayed in many ways in the media, none of which will be flattering or positive. It may be said that her stance is “desperate” in light of the numbers of the Parliament or that she is just protecting one of her Union hack mates. It doesn’t matter whether it is justified or not.
And unless the report makes a finding or findings vis a vis Mr T to the effect that it’s all been a big mistake and misunderstanding than I cannot see anything positive coming from it. Worse, if it sets out the facts and circumstances and then remains equivocal about the conduct of the persons concerned so as to let others like the DPP to decide, that will only add grist to the Opposition/media frenzy mill.
While this affair continues to be reported and speculated upon in the media then it will remain a millstone around the PM’s/government’s neck and a continual distraction from the positives of the PM and this government.
And none of the above addresses the legitimate issues and concerns of the HSU members as to the governance of their Union and its funds.
This affair is, as I said, a most unedifying spectacle.
So, if you don’t mind, I won’t be stocking up on popcorn and I certainly hope this is not a nice little earner for Mr T. Frankly, at least for the government’s sake, the faster Mr T and this affair p!sses off or is p!ssed off, at least from the front pages, the better.
by Darc on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Now the PM sounds like a lecturer again. Not surprised the media needs the lecture on what independent means.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:46 pm
GeeWizz, then he’s going to scrap a lot more projects. What are they?
by triton on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:47 pm
A decision that will save you 54 cents over 10 years.
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Basil had it right: “Please understand before one of us dies!”
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Mumbleblog yesterday “The Parramatta fallacy”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_parramatta_fallacy/P25/
by billie on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Two soft questions for Gillard. Could this be early signs of a shift in the Canberra Press Gallery thinking?
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Hopefully anything and everything that doesn’t specifically relate to running the state of QLD. (health, education, police, water)
Time to get rid of the fluff I reckon
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Michelle not happy.
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Truthie, happy for CanDo to keep doing that because it will cos him millions politically
by The Finnigans on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Truthie @ 2671
OK, share your enlightenment.
List a few for us?
by bemused on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Do you think the Prime Minister sounds like a lecturer talking down to particularly stupid hostile students, because – well frankly – the Press gallery are hostile and malignantly portraying her as incompetent and shifty.
I think she is only human and doing a marvellous job under such horrible pressure.
I would like to see the Press Gallery mete out the same treatment to the Opposition front bench and their policies
by billie on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:57 pm
lizzie
What does Michelle want the govt to do?
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Bemused,
Come on use your imagination. As I said, anything that isn’t basic roles of QLD State Government should be scrapped.
There are probably thousands of pet projects that have nothing to do with running schools, hospitals, police or the roads. They all need to go, because the reality is they are waste.
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 1:59 pm
@Billie
A good question to save up for Q and A.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:01 pm
victoria
She’s gone into capitals for emphasis. Cross with govt for not commenting about FWA report.
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:01 pm
La Stupenda wants Labor to resign so the natural government of Australia will prevail.
At her age she should have paid off her Mugga Way mansion, so how much does she expect to receive from Palmer/Rinehart
by billie on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Mexicans can whinge about QLD getting rid of Literary Awards and other taxpayer waste.
We’ll gloat about having the lowest taxes in the country.
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Truthie @ 2685
Truthie, I don’t just imagine stuff. I work with facts and evidence.
Thousands? Then it should be a doodle to name a few. But so far you haven’t come up with any.
by bemused on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Whizzer
To quote a higher authority: “Man shall not live by bread alone.”
I suppose you don’t have a creative side, except in bagging Labor.
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
by victoria on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
We Mexicans still remember the Queensland diaspora that started reversing once Joh left office
by billie on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Truthie @ 2689
While simultaneously whinging about cost of living pressures? Sounds about right.
by bemused on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:05 pm
How about consumer protection? Legal aid services? Recognition of acts of bravery? All waste probably.
by ltep on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Bemused I didn’t even know about the Literary Award, does that mean it doesn’t exist?
Some government pet projects are so small, that a majority of people wouldn’t even know they existed.
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:05 pm
I really hate the use of the term “mexicans”. I have never heard it used except in a derogatory manner.
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:07 pm
lizzie
I have to disagree. To call someone Mexican is not derogatory. There are more Mexicans, millions of them than there are in this country. In Mexico City alone.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:08 pm
by lizzie on Apr 4, 2012 at 2:08 pm