Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Finns@2900:
I haven’t seen him, and I’ve been waiting all day.
by don on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Anyone putting their hopes on Turnbull being some sort of force of enlightenment in the Liberal Party will be sorely disappointed.
by Cuppa on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:47 pm
There shouldn’t have been a tendering process in the first place. The Australia network should be run by a government agency rather than it being run by News Ltd. which doesn’t have Australia’s best interests at heart, and ultimately only cares about profits.
by ShowsOn on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:48 pm
I do not think a sex tax would go down well with the public.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:49 pm
For some, sex is already taxing.
by Scarpat on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Even in states where prostitution is still illegal, prostitutes are expected to pay income tax on the income they earn.
I consider this completely unfair. What other illegal occupation is expected to pay income tax?
by ShowsOn on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Malcolm Farr said on #Slynews, wtte, that: “Everyone assumes from day 1, there was a criminal act” – Yep, #MSMhacks, Abbott & Brandis
by The Finnigans on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:54 pm
I would much prefer a Abstinence Tax
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Regarding Victorians being labelled “Mexicans”, some years ago the trains between Sydney and Melbourne were named. At one time the southbound train was called the Melbourne Express (MEX) and the northbound train was the Sydney Express (SEX).
by citizen on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Whats the polling on Abbott’s PPL scheme?
by Dr John on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:54 pm
… which would be made all the more stimulating if it involved a hung parliament.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:55 pm
I very much question whether the ABC has Australia’s best interests at heart these days.
by Cuppa on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:55 pm
SO
Does the Tax Act define income as having to be legal?
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:55 pm
I think you will find “Proceeds of Crime” is taxed at 100% under state law
by GeeWizz on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Showson
It may be news to some conservatives, but sex work is legal in some states
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Diog – sometime back – thanks. Only just picked it up.
by Tricot on Apr 4, 2012 at 4:59 pm
GW
It’s only illegal if you get caught. My guess is the ATO doesn’t care less how you got the income; they just want their share.
by Diogenes on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:00 pm
I think it is only SA where prostitution is illegal. Well almost.
Only in Dolly Land.
by ruawake on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Perhaps a progressive scale might be best. The rates could be related to consumption.
Tri Weekly
Try Weekly
Try Weakly
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Some of the motive by the MSM in covering political scandals is self interest. It gives someone that journalists can beat on the more trusted list.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Brandis now arguint that because the DPP has said the report is not a brief of evidence then we should see it.
Publishing it now would make matters even worse, I would have thought. It doesn’t even have the cover of being related to a proper investigation.
Really, just scuttlebutt, no more.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:04 pm
The more the Opposition goes on about Thomson in disregard of facts, the more they sound like they think the next election is a win to Labor.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:07 pm
When Beattie came up with it the term “Smart State” was a statement, with the election of can-do Campbell it’s become a question.
by Smaug on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Dio @ 2966:
I believe you are correct. (We all are sometimes, except maybe Truthy). And, given that tax returns are strictly confidential, if you were to put “Bank Robber” as your occupation on your tax return, the ATO could not refer it to any investigative authority.
by Ozymandias on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:09 pm
(Commonwealth DPP says he cannot investigate HSU information sent to him by Fair Work Australia.
So The Prosecutor will not prosecute, how cute. Abbott must be turning purple.)
Have been our all day, watching news you woukd not have clue, woukd some ome pkease tell me in a nut shell pkease . What the latest please.
by my say on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Glengyron @glengyron
It’s easy to have a go at Campbell Newman. But to keep the literary awards after closing all the schools would be absurd
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:10 pm
OK – this is a LOL. (Give it a couple of paras to warm up…)
http://jezebel.com/5898432/i-re+watched-titanic-so-you-dont-have-to-youre-welcome
by zoomster on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:10 pm
MySAY
It appears that only police investigation will resolve. So its back to where we were two days ago.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:11 pm
SK
There is no doubt whatsoever that hundreds certainly. and thousands, probably, of APS jobs are going to go in order for the Labor Government to achieve its surplus. Most economists are against this. Most business leaders are against it. But I don
t mind. It is not a good time in world history to be racking up more sovereign debt, IMHO. For the purposes of this discussion, there are two drivers for building a surplus:
(1) the increased ‘efficiency’ dividend. As I have pointed out previously, this is now an effectiveness dividend. It is effectively used as a non-transparent mechanism to reprioritise government spending. The efficiency dividend is sourced from running costs. The overwhelming proportion of running costs in fed departments is staff costs. It is fairly easy to have a look at the annual reports to work out how many jobs are going to go for each department. Ms Gillard is being somewhat disingenous about not ins or outs. They are outs. They have been announced already. The only question is the proportion of blood on the floor attributable to voluntary redundancies on the one hand and sackings on the other. (Incidentally, these sackings represent a broken promise by Labor and undercut their crticism of Mr Abbott’s promise to cut 12,000 APS jobs. It also behoves an alert MSM journo to ask Mr Abbott whether his 12,000 are additional to the ones already carried out by Labor.)
(2) The second source of cuts is program cuts. Typically, each program has an allocation of running costs, the biggest element of which is usually staffing costs. If a program is to be cut back or eliminated, there is an inevitable set of job losses. Ms Gillard is quite right not to be counting these in or out. They are properly the subject of budget night announcements.
by Boerwar on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Does anyone know if the following statement is correct?
If this is true, then obviously Jackson panicked.
by Dee on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Qld could have a colouring-in award to replace the literary award?
by Scarpat on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:13 pm
GG: a consumption tax approach could have an impact on certain sexual acts too …
Also I think we need advice on the effect of s.92 of the Constitution – you know, trade commerce and intercourse between the States to be absolutely free
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:13 pm
So, are we heading towards a well-hung parliament?
by Boerwar on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Oh GG I won’t ask which one you belong to!
by mari on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:14 pm
I’m amazed no one has cottoned onto the meta story which Abbott, Abetz and the Coalition IR hard cases are seeding into the public consciousness as they go to town on Craig Thompson.
Ever occurred to anyone that the Coalition despise Fair Work Australia and the IR edifice that Julia Gillard has created in the wake of the WorkChoices 2007 election washup, and that the Coalition and their IR bullyboy mates are just itching for the hook to hang it’s deconstruction and demolition on?
Welcome to Centre Stage, the HSU/Craig Thompson investigation by, you guessed it, Fair Work Australia. Which has taken 4 long years!!! Shock! Horror! Tut, tut.(Even though I’m STILL waiting for the AFP to hand down their findings into who leaked the report to Andrew Bolt from the ONA).
Now, how easy will it be to quickly dismantle a thoroughly delegitimised FWA once Abbott & Abetz get control of it, and the IR department?
Just factor it’s abolition into the ’12000 Public Service job losses’ if,Dog help us, they ever get their slimy hands on the levers of power.
The electorate will be gagging for it and for them to reintroduce a ‘decent’ IR system by then. They won’t even have to bother dreaming up a new name for the reintroduction of WorkChoices. People will be offering up their arses to them on a plate, along with their vote.
The Coalition and their cronies will be laughing all the way to the bank at their job well done.
by C@tmomma on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Apparently the Productivity Commission wants to do an investigation into paid roots. But the Opposition only wants it to do an investigation into paid nannies.
I just want the Productivity Commission to do an investigation of the DAP.
by Boerwar on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:16 pm
MM,
Including Buggery will only complicate things.
Stick with the fistic vertical model and everything will be sweet.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:18 pm
mari,
I’m not a tax minimiser.
In fact most men will gladly pay more tax than they have to in this area.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:19 pm
I think that is one of the most honest answers I have ever heard, you are a gem GG
by mari on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:22 pm
But i thought , they had already done, this in nsw. And victoria, how can they do it twice,
..
And why. Want it be the same,
by my say on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Not sure if it’s true. However, apparently on Twitter the Opps referred the HSU to the FWA instead of the police. So the total cock up is all their fault.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:27 pm
guytaur
The Coalition could sit back and stay absolutely silent & let the media win the next election.
by Dee on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:28 pm
MySay
What it means is that despite the Noaliton desperation no early election due to this.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Nah, we just don’t care what you do as long as you don’t do it on the streets and frighten the horses
by Danny Lewis on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:29 pm
George Brandis SC.
What a legal star!
by BK on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:30 pm
So the dpp cannot investigate stuff from , fairwork . So they now have to ask police to investigate,
So they can invedtigate, sound like an episode of ” yes minister”.
Why werent fw, told this.
by my say on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Dee
Not going to happen. What politician would be quiet for 18 months?
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:31 pm
I had the misfortune to stumble across The Australian this morning. What a dreadful paper. I note Kelly’s piece on Gillard, Wong and Ellis “getting it so wrong” on Abbott’s Nanny Funding Scheme. Does anyone have a view on the merits or otherwise of this proposed scheme. I would have thought it is a return to middle/upper class welfare so proficiently provided during the Howard years and simply a re-run of the Liberals merry go round of $$ pissed up against the wall.
by Lynchpin on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Dee
Unfortunately I think they already have.
by Lynchpin on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:33 pm
And still no news from Ltd News on the news that the DPP has handballed News Ltd top story on its flagship newspaper, I guess it is not news if News don’t report it.
by ruawake on Apr 4, 2012 at 5:34 pm