Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I know what you are saying: its called denial (its not us its you- i.e., the ALP is great, its just the unfair media). After years of the same message on PB, even us dull Libs (whats the term used here: “Bogans”) get it.
What I am saying is that I have seen pretty much every major interview with Cabinet Ministers on political shows for the last 5 years. The Carbon tax has not been properly explained and the general public do not understand it.
That is why action on climate change has gone from large majority support to very mediocre support.
by Mod Lib on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Can Do ” Look after the pennies …”
Nong!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Brandis and the HSU.
Time for Jones to make his name.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Wrong. The term you were searching for is “fucktards”.
by ShowsOn on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:41 pm
This is absolute BS. I’m not the one in denial. I keep on telling you I have never been to Egypt.
Well, when it comes into being they’ll understand it. They’ll be living it.
by Gary on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Can Do needs to learn from the Scots. Famous penny savers. Famous for their arts and especially the Edingburgh Festival.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Shows:
We are patient beings us libs.
Our revenge will be swift and sweet!
by Mod Lib on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:43 pm
TJ: Many bodies?
GB: FWA. Won’t get into hair-splitting.
TJ OK so far.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Have there been any interesting photographs on the ABC yet?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:43 pm
The kind of arrogance that we voters get our chance to react to in due time.
by Mod Lib on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Mod Lib
You show true colours. You want your side to govern so you can get revenge.
Stuff the country!!!!!
Which generally happens.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:44 pm
GB ” The ultimate conclusion of the advice does not reflect previous caveats.”
Weasel.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Mod Lib,
Even chuck knuckles like you will understand how the Carbon Price works after July 1.
Only 83 more sleeps. You should be excited!
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Jones has Brandis cornered. Let’s see the follow though.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:45 pm
YES! Mr Puffer! Thank you for asking. Just last night an excellent photograph that I photographed was broadcast by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation on the weather segment of the 7 PM news!
by ShowsOn on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Mod Lib
Come election time Whyalla will still be there. Be sure the Labor Party has advertisements to this effect at the ready.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Shows insults me
I say I will have my revenge at the next election
You say that shows my true colours, that I want Australia stuffed.
Hmmmmm
by Mod Lib on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Abbott’s response to the DPP flick off on LL appeared almost shrill – his bleatings could be summed up as ‘it just isn’t fair – we should be in Government’. The PM in contrast looked and sounded relaxed and comfortable.
by CO on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Brandis wants FWA to “assemble a brief of evidence” “Not a hard task.”
You are joking, aren’t you?!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Mod Lib,
“We are patient beings us libs”.
Yeah, that salivating and regular pants creaming by Abbott really demonstrates patience.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Well done Showson
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Slums is what this country is headed for under the conservatives, as they well must know. We’ll have slums and shanty towns, beggars, rising infant mortality, oldies dying of the cold because they can’t afford blankets, hobos on the track, people withe heads full of rotting teeth, rising levels of drug and property crime – and squatting obscenely above all the putrefaction, a handful of people with wealth beyond common imagination, grasping always for more and more from a country with less and less to take. The country’s natural wealth will be stripped away till it’s all gone forever, entry to the world of online competitiveness retarded and reversed, public health and education progressively dismantled, a soft fascist press charged with maintaining the status quo.
It will be a kind of Great Depression suffering, visited again on millions. OK, there might not be the unemployment levels of the 1930s. There will be “jobs”, but most of them will be SerfChoices jobs – with pay, conditions, job security and workplace dignity on a steady slope downwards to eventual Third World standards.
A decade or two of muscular conservative rule should see Australia become the new Bangladesh of the South Pacific. Think about that, just in time for the next generation…
by Cuppa on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Tough, Robinson!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm
The rush of ALP stalwarts here explaining the carbon tax is deafening.
Something that has been explained so well for so long by so many ALP Ministers, and not a single PB poster is willing to have a shot at it (you could just cut and paste all the wonderful communicating you have been referring to, you know!).
Case closed.
by Mod Lib on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Mod Lib
Posted Wednesday, April 4, 2012 at 10:43 pm | Permalink
Shows:
We are patient beings us libs.
Our revenge will be swift and sweet!
========================================
No mention of elections. Too late after the event.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Brandis: “It is a fair surmise.”
Weasel!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:48 pm
“Merely a matter of assembling” evidence.
Prat!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Mod Lib,
As you know, the carbon Tax is a Liberal fairy tale.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Thanks!
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/9590/myweatherphoto.jpg
by ShowsOn on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:50 pm
What has happened at the ABC? Tony Jones pursuing actual questions and Brandis soi-disant SC looking very very ordinary
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Brandis thinks FWA has sufficient evidence for a brief.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Time for Laming. Come on, Tony!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:51 pm
MM
Maybe the change of Chairman of the ABC is starting to have an effect.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:52 pm
MM,
If Brandis says anything then it’s another swimming pool for Thomson.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:52 pm
WTF are you going on about now?
The Coalition’s climate change policy is very easy to explain: TAX AND SPEND.
Doesn’t mean it is good or will work, but that’s how to summarise it.
by ShowsOn on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Duck,
How does he know?
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Brandis wtte: “If Thomson is charged he can’t be booted from parliament” he he.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:53 pm
GG
Thomson could get reelected by promising every constituent a free swimming pool.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Brandis now saying Thomson could be charged before the end of this year.
Idiot!
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:54 pm
guytaur,
Now that would be delicious.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Like a man who knows he’s been foiled at least, maybe hit a roadblock?
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Now, Can Do on LitGate.
Brandis wtte: “He is entirely justified.”
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:56 pm
This little black duck @ # 3407
”As to why FWA forwarded the report to the DPP my guess was there was nowhere else for it to go.
They could have gone with “insufficient evidence to proceed” and thrown it in the incinerator. ”
Never an option.
Justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done. See that rest of my previous post. You put enough pressure on anyone then they will always try and cover their arse. FWA can now say that they collected all the evidence, evaluated it and presented it to those who would conduct any prosecution if necessary and that they (the DPP) came to the same conclusion as they did –that is, there was no case for a prosecution.
by Ratsars on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Now Brandis being a idiotic, irrelevant philistine
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:57 pm
EOF,
Jones didn’t go for the kill.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:57 pm
TLBD
A delicate business this giving them enough rope.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:58 pm
How on earth is that arrogant? It’s a statement of fact.
by Gary on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:58 pm
George Brandis SC disagrees.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Brandis was quite discomfitted. Good to see.
by This little black duck on Apr 4, 2012 at 11:00 pm
This Thomson saga reminds me of the old joke.
What is the definition of suspicion?
Nuns doing push ups in the long grass.
by guytaur on Apr 4, 2012 at 11:01 pm