Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Perhaps Hockey is finally admitting that the contradictory, but populist, messages that the coalition are so eager to put out there, are going to be seen for what they are – crap!
by jenauthor on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:13 am
I mentioned this after the QLd State election that Gillard did her party and herself a great disservice by pulling the “it has nothing to do with us, it was state issues” line when they know Federal Labor is so deeply unliked in Queensland… it reinforces the view that Labor JUST ISN’T LISTENING.
All she had to say was that Labor has heard Queenslanders very loud and clear and they know they have work to do.
But of course this is Labor who can’t help but stuff it up.
Those comments alone cost Labor a few percentage points IMHO
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:13 am
No worries William – I have an anonymous email: concera.vota@gmail com – Vic you can contact me there
by jenauthor on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:15 am
William if you are about, please provide jenauthor with my email details. Thanks in advance
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:15 am
that’s:
concera.vota@gmail.com (left out the dot!)
by jenauthor on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:16 am
Thanks jen
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:16 am
I don’t think that Rudd is finished, not by any means.
If the polls are still as dire as this for Labor in 12 months time, I can envisage senior figures in this government drafting Kevin back into the top job.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:16 am
@GeeWizz/351
A change of Goverment is going to change that view point ?
Hrm – it would be more likely that LNP will similar position after 2 years because they want to sell everything and restrict workers rights, cancel the NBN (even with 56% popularity).
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:17 am
And its become ‘common knowledge’ even though as said many times on here, its not even accurate. Its a sad example of how strong the power of repetition is if you’re allowed to do it.
by rishane on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:18 am
Again, it doesn’t matter what Labor does. If Queenslanders want a Coalition government that badly then nothing will change their minds. Luckily the rest of Australia isn’t as fond of one party states.
by Mithrandir on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:19 am
my say,
Rummel and friends know exactly what they will get from Abbott. They want it. In that sort of misery there is the opportunity for some to make money. They think they will be that some.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:19 am
This is major news and should have been announced by the Prime Minister. Former Prime Ministers would have gotten a months public discussion about this.
by bluegreen on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:19 am
So, Mick, you’re another of the economic illiterates who doesn’t know the difference between a TAX and a PRICE!
In Oz, on almost everything you purchase in the not-black economy, eg a pub lunch or macca’s, you pay at least one tax (GST) and a price. If you get a docket, you’ll find a few lines below the total, which separate the actual item price from GST paid on it. So I thought, after a decade+ of separating an item’s actual price from the tax on it, even the economically challenged would know the difference – unless you’re a swallower of LNP right and even further right propaganda.
CP, as of 1 July, will be collected as if it were a tax, but returned, via compo, to those who pay it – individuals, families, businesses small & large etc – Business, esp small business, families and OAP Pensionners are well rewarded. If anyone’s ripped off (you, for instance) mechanism’s already been there to rip it back off the offender, plus fines and (if necessary) court fees.
BTW: pink-batt rip-off merchants are being fined 5 & 6 figure sums – published inconspicuously by NewsLtd papers, more prominently by Fairfax (funny about that, eh?) Similar cases are in train over other Beating the GFC Projects, like Solar HWS & BER Halls. Mere mention of the sentence I sent a report to Greg Combet’s office works almost immediately, with panicky post-blunder phone calls re one’s satisfaction with redress given!
Bet that’s not on Liberal Websites/ Talking Points, Alan Jones & other Shockjocks’ programmes, or JaNova’s Blog!
Offspring operates as a small business, so: tax threshold soars by c$10,000 & other thresholds increase up to specified gross amounts (so tax plummets), & there’s an immediate equipment write-off. Offspring might pay little or no tax, With no kids in need of child-care/ nanny, sure ain’t voting to have Gillard’s largesse ripped-away by Abbott’s Lies.
The only small biz owners I know NOT excited are swallowers of Abbott’s Line.
Like some shares in Lassiter’s reef & the Storey Bridge going cheap? I’m very persuasive.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:20 am
Two very long term Labor Governments victoria both pretty-well exhausted.
Don’t sweat it. The good people of NSW and QLD just wanted to change their underpants.
Once the New Tory Tights start to grip the goodies, however, I think we’ll start to see a bit of discomfort deveoping. Especially when it becomes clear that they’re difficult to live with without losing a lot of skin in the process.
Shoulda gone commando.
The Labor Federal Three Piece is still a classic and as you know, you can’t go past classic cut suits. Long wearing, durable and confortable. They’ll keep it, I reckon. Especially when constantly reminded of what a poorly-considered change can bring via that annoying and persistent Tory groin itch.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:22 am
smithe
You make some very good points re state elections. On the other hand, SA re elected long term Labor govt and here in Vic, the Libs only won with a one seat majority.
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:25 am
In case I am persona non grata over at The Australian’s blogs, and my comments are not publishable, I wrote this in response to George Megalogenis’ article on National Negativity.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/on_the_cost_of_living/
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:26 am
Still only takes SEVEN voters in ONE HUNDRED to change their minds and it’s EVEN STEVEN.
Still EIGHTEEN MONTHS to the next election, calm down you people!.
by 1934pc on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:27 am
@My Say
Abc local radio in Sydny is getting listeners to put a question to be asked by Essential pollling. Try asking your electorate breakdown there.
This poll has to have been taken before the weekend. The weekend saw wins for Labor.
Good coverage of the NBN launch. No Limited News to distort the message.
Then the drug price drop being the big news on the Sunday. A result that will increase primary votes in polling. If this does not happen then I will be making complaints under trade practices to ACCC and similar bodies over fraud.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:28 am
If so, only because it wouldn’t immediately turn to ‘why is the PM so unpopular/a liar?’ talk like it currently does.
by rishane on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:28 am
Oh my FG. He’s dessiccated, dried-out and twisting in the breeze Evan.
They don’t get deader than that.
Dr Frankenstein couldn’t bring him back. You’d need JC. Even then, he’d have his work cut out for him.
But you reckon…..ITS ALIVE……..
WTF?
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:29 am
What would a carbon tax look like, please explain it to us
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:31 am
BB
You’re the Col Nathan Jessup of News Ltd.
They can’t handle the truth.
They need a good Code Red, I reckon.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:35 am
Liberal Party state seats, Qld: 3 after the 2001 election; 5 after 2004; 8 after 2006 – the last contested as a separate party.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:36 am
26th of November 2012 Rudd will become PM again
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:36 am
Here is a question Crikey could get pollsters to ask
Isit in Australias national interest to have 70% of the print media owned by one person?
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:37 am
@smithe/369
I think he can come back, just not the way TLM will want him to be.
There is plenty of places in NSW and QLD where they can use him.
by zoidlord on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:38 am
Fiz—the fixing of atmospheric CO2 by the rapidly proliferating plant life also caused a global ice age.
Just posted that to the JoNova blog, be interesting to see the brainwashed respond to it.
by political animal on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:38 am
BB
Case in point. A couple of years ago, house prices continued to rise in defiance of the GFC, the papers were carrying on about how bad it was for Australians not to be able to afford a home, and the insinuation was that the Chinese were buying up all the houses and it was the fault of the Rudd govt. Two years later and house prices are now at more sensible prices. What do we get??
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:38 am
A tax linked to the consumption of goods that emit CO2.
For example, a Carbon tax would be a line item on a fuel docket based on a per litre fixed rate set by the government. For those of you familiar with the National Greenhouse Energy Reporting Scheme (NGERs) there are some estimated emission factors for different fuels in different vehicles (such as Euro IV for Diesel). This would be used to calculate the ‘carbon tax’ per litre of fuel of MJ of natural gas consumed in a household.
The current scheme is the purchase of a right (through granting of a permit) to emit CO2 or equivalent gases to the value of that permit.
by Sossman on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:41 am
@my say: Early days?
Look at QLD. Anna Bligh’s polling dipped /very early/ in the cycle. It stayed there until the floods, during which it rised to an election winning lead… and after which /it dipped right back/ to where it was before. In other words: Even if some miracle happens, it will be fleeting before people’s opinions revert to somewhere around where they are now.
There’s a second message from QLD too: Stop attacking the man. QLD Labor couldn’t run on their record. And people didn’t trust them enough for them to run on their future promises. All they had was to attack Newman /and it backfired/. That’s the same situation Federally. Labor’s Federal record is Kevin Rudd’s policy platform. They can’t run on future promises because, thanks to the Carbon Tax, Asylum Seekers and the Wilkie deal, no-one will believe them. All they’ve got is to throw things at Abbott.
These poll numbers won’t change. They might jump a few percent here or there but Labor federally are facing a massacre.
As for Morgan and Essential: Morgan face-to-face is typically biased about 3% towards the left side of politics. (I’m assuming Possum doesn’t use their face-to-face results in his polling for a reason). A result of 55 / 45 can mean reality is around 57 / 43. That would mean 3 polls now are in-line with each other over the last week.
As for Essential, you really think 55 / 45 is a good result? Go look up Kevin Rudd’s election win of 2007 on wikipedia and tell me what the 2PP was for that election (52.7 / 47.3). Now look at John Howard’s win in 1996 and tell me what the 2PP to Howard was (53.6 / 46.3). Now look through Australian Federal Election history and see if you can find /any/ result that’s greater than the 55% 2PP mark.
@Mithrandir: “And what exactly is this ‘message’? I’m curious to know.”
Doing nothing but talking about Tony Abbott isn’t working. Message: STOP TALKING ABOUT ABBOTT. He is irrelevant to Labor party policy. “It’s time” the Labor party started acting as such. Blaming him for every wonky result doesn’t work, hasn’t worked and isn’t going to start working any time soon. People aren’t going to reach the election, hear Labor repeating the same message, and suddenly change their minds.
“What should Labor do? The amusing thing is the people screaming Labor needs to get ‘the message’ don’t care what Labor does.”
That’s the problem Mithrandir. Labor doesn’t care what Labor does. Party platform clearly states Asylum Seekers should be processed onshore. So why is it a Labor Government’s policy to send them to Malaysia? Labor party policy is in favour of gay marriage. So why is it a Labor Government’s policy to stand against gay marriage?
You tell me what “Labor” believes in. Because the party believes in one thing but this Government is doing the exact opposite.
The message: SORT YOUR POLICY OUT. Don’t keep saying one thing and then doing the opposite.
@ltep: “”Just because someone said something and then the opposite comes to pass doesn’t make it a lie”
Funnily enough, that’s the /real/ problem. If we take out lying, then there are two reasons for Gillard to say what she said:
1. She genuinely believes that a Carbon Tax is not the best solution and is such a bad solution that there would be no point in introducing one.
2. She doesn’t care, and is willing to make whatever commitment she needs to in order to hold on to power.
If the answer is 1, then changing her mind the minute she sits down with the Greens makes it look like she has no integrity at worst, and at best that she didn’t do her homework properly before she made the commitment. Gillard keeps saying “things changed”, but the only thing that changed was an election result. There was no new science, no new argument presented about climate change. The only thing that changed was she /thought/ she had to do a deal with the Greens to hold on to power.
She’ll say whatever she needs to, to win “at that point in time” and will change her mind the minute she needs to to win “the next time”. Just like she did with Andrew Wilkie. Just like she did with Asylum Seekers when she thought she had East Timor onboard. All of this means she’s not doing her homework properly (IE: her job), she’s not researching issues appropriately and she’s not adequately discussing thing with her colleagues before she makes these commitments.
And hey, wasn’t that Kevin Rudd’s problem too…?
by John64 on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:41 am
Brilliant Bushfire. I can’t stand the constant whinging. Didn’t we used to make fun of the Poms for being whingers?
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:42 am
Enjoy slumming-it amongst the Denilaists do you PA?
You will not be thanked for your contributions there. I was banned by Nova long ago for upsetting the apple cart with a fact or two.
She’s a piece of work, that’s for certain.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:42 am
For the Gillard is doomed people here is a reminder of what a former employer of Tony Abbott once splashed across the front page
by poroti on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:45 am
This published on OO…amazing!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/the-real-julia-fan-club/story-e6frg8h6-1226313688921
or
The real Julia fan club….and google
by joe2 on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:45 am
Which might be a duty of excise, which is a tax.
In the words of the Government’s own second reading speach on a bill forming part of the package:
by ltep on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:45 am
Omitting the unexpected the PM will go to an election on the last possible day. It increases her scope of things to sell. While decreasing Abbott’s ability to claim to undo things.
Just as John Howard did to Beazley over the GST.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:47 am
Well they’ve clearly got us bang to rights on that score by now.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:48 am
the standard for achievement should be changed from “self made man” to “self made welfare lover”. how does it come to pass that the Libs have become the party promoting a larger welfare state, and Australians have become welfare lovers?
what happened here??
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:48 am
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/things_i_dont_believe/
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:52 am
This figure alone shows how dodgy opinion polling can be.
by Ozymandias on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:53 am
If, and it is a big IF ALP changed leader – it won’t be Rudd. He’s too damaged.
by jenauthor on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:55 am
Regarding the carbon price and compensation while some people may by fully or even over compensated many people will be under compensated. However the big problem for Labor is trying to differentiate the carbon price effect from the other factors which are driving double-digit annual increases in electricity costs.
All this feeds into and compounds the very simple message that Gillard and Swan made a very firm committment to the Australian people in 2010 and broke that committment less than 12 months later. It was always going to be tough to come back from that.
by DavidWH on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:56 am
Howard realised it was a vote buying tactic!.
Just like the $500 dollars he paid to pensioners at EACH election!.
by 1934pc on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:56 am
John 64 having a whine on labor about policy.
Rich, mate, rich, especially given that the Tories are a complete policy-free zone.
As we all know, they don’t do policy. They do ‘aspirations’ whatever TF they are.
But then, I suppose, you don’t have much of a problem with that. You’d rather criticise Labor’s ham sandwich (on the basis that it’s not the fuarking feast you wanted) than the Tories’ empty plate.
I bet when you were a kid if someone gave you a toy you’d complain it wasn’t what you wanted and throw it away, demanding that pony insted. And if some poor patient uncle or other ante’d-up bought you that pony, all you’d do is whine about the mount of shit it produced.
There’s a mame for people like you.
Plunker.
by smithe on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:57 am
Not sure if this link has already been posted. Shoots down most of the reasons given by comments on why the polls are so bad for Labor.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/things_i_dont_believe/
by lizzie on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:57 am
Could be, depends on how narrowly the ‘Ha v NSW’ decision is applied to the operation of the permit system. Would have to argue that it’s a tax applied to a step in production. But is a permit a tax when it’s granting a right? Is my licence registration fee every 3 years a Driving Tax? It’s one big loop.
If this is an excise, that means every possible way to price Carbon is therefore a tax. Therefore PM Gillard went to the last election both promising a tax and refusing to implement a tax at the same time.
Brandis save us!
by Sossman on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:59 am
victoria
sorry, I’m too slow!!
by lizzie on Apr 2, 2012 at 10:59 am
janice2 @ 252
I too heard that Mark Textor interview and agree others should check it out.
That constant repetition is rather like the Goebbels “big lie” and sadly, it does work.
Labor doesn’t have any billionaires I am aware of, we are on our own and depend on our own resources. Would you really want to be beholden to a billionaire? Far better we examine the fund raising techniques employed by Obama for example and get to work on raising campaign funds.
But what you and many others overlook is that either those repetition techniques have been spectacularly successful or the PM has an underlying popularity problem. And I don’t buy any of this gender rubbish.
When the PM lags a mere ‘slogan bogan’ in popularity and leads him in unpopularity, then there is a very real problem and closing your eyes and wishing it wasn’t so does not address it. Nor does the naive belief that miraculously this will all turn around with the efflux of time.
Numerous events have been pointed to as marking when things would improve for the ALP. They have come and gone and things have not got better. They are worse. Now we look for salvation on 1 July when the Carbon Price kicks in and the sky doesn’t fall. That may provide an opportunity, but so far these opportunities seem not to have been exploited in a way that yields results.
The seeds of this sorry situation were sown in June 2010.
by bemused on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:02 am
These are my perceptions, and please, only generalisations, as to why Labor is not travelling well at the moment – nothing much to do with Abbott per se.
*The Oz electorate, despite having brought it upon themselves, are not that comfortable with a hung parliament. They do seem to like the “winner take all approach” probably because they don’t want to think about politics every five minutes and want to let the pollies get on with it.
*As much as we here, mostly, could see reasons why Rudd had to go, to the general populace he seemed “Priministerial”. He was popular, and, if he was to fall from grace, the electorate wanted the the job of deciding – not the Labor party.
*Everyone wanted “something done” about climate change, but nobody really wanted to pay for it. The electorate would prefer the “something” to be painless and costless. Impossible of course.
*Whether JG “lied” or used cute language, the conservatives and the media have painted her as having lied in relation to what is, for the electorate a “tax”. The Oz electorate does not like “taxes” and they like even less one that they cannot understand and seems to be just providing more money for the government’s coffers.
*Despite all the best will in the world and so called gender fairness in this country, a lot of people are not happy with a woman as PM. There are women haters from both genders who just can’t abide by the fact that the PM is female.
*The Mining tax is feared in Queensland and WA, partly because it is not understood nad partly due to the rough and over the top treatment the miners gave it. Surprisingly, after the huge and extraordinary profits the miners came up with, opposition to the principle of the tax is muted while the details are being fought over. This is not helping Labor much though.
*Rudd walked away from the “greatest challenge to our world” or wtte and Labor credibility started to go down with it.
*State political cycles are currently working against Labor making it look as if Labor is kind of a lost ship wherever.
*The boats – an issue that Labor can never win as there are too many fearful of “the boats” in Labor’s most sensitive electorates.
And…………..as a footnote………..the unrelenting negative campaign from the conservatives and their media cohorts.
Fortunately, none of this is enough to be terminal and there is no election tomorrow, but it will be tough.
There is absolutely no point at this stage of either changing policies or leaders if this is what Labor was supposed to have “heard” from the Queensland election.
Either change if virtually playing into the hands of the conservatives.
There is no one in Labor at the moment who could ensure a Labor victory – like some kind of White Knight waiting to save the party.
A change of policy would repudiate everything Labor stands for.
If come 2013, the electorate do not buy this, then they are entitle to throw Labor out.
However, there are still two budgets, and election campaign and 18 months to go, and the conservatives are no closer to power than they were 18 months ago.
It is instructive to note how poorly the conservatives were going until Abbott came along and then?
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:03 am
jenauthor
Agreed. Btw I sent you an email
by victoria on Apr 2, 2012 at 11:04 am