Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

Sunday, April 1, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:

• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.

• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.

• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.

• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.

• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.

• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.

• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

4167 Responses

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Is there going to be a point in time when people are going to stop being distracted by the antics, and look at the substance?

Not before the election and maybe not even for the first year of an Abbott government should he become PM.

Living in a Victoria as I do it is easy to forget that large parts of the country (particularly extreme north and extreme west) are inhabited by people not like those that I meet on a day to day basis. I don’t know anyone that I think is capable of joining a lynching party let alone organising one. It seems to me that many thousand in other parts of the country are ready to do just that. Bogans, nutters and fools are in plentiful supply out there. They are too thick to comprehend where their best interests lie. They will vote for a party that will do them over in double quick time rather than a party that, despite its faults, basically works to improve the lot of ordinary Australians. That’s modern Australia I’m afraid. Many Americans I met overseas when GWB was president were embarrassed to admit that they were American. I have an aweful feeling that Australia might be heading the same way. If Abbott becomes PM I could always pretend to be a New Zealander when abroad. That might work.

by Tom Hawkins on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Ah Northern Territory delivers gold again.

News 24 Snakes on a PLane!!

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:08 pm
guytaur @ 3897

Victoria

An hour means that the meeting can break up any minute. HSU by next hour could very well have to drop the U.

How do you arrive at that conclusion? It will still be the HSU but it may or may not be affiliated with the ACTU.

by bemused on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:09 pm
TH

As a Melburnian, I know precisely what you mean. The attitude towards Labor here is not toxic, as appears to be the case elsewhere

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Bemused

Thank You. That was my mistake. I was thinking deregistration not losing affiliation.

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:11 pm
I suppose when schools are prepared to teach creationism, they will be equally prepared to teach Plimerism.
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/power-move/ipa-under-fire-from-scientists-over-plimer-book-mail-out/201204051228

Scientists and teachers have accused free market think tank The Institute of Public Affairs of spreading disinformation by sending copies of Ian Plimer's latest book to hundreds of schools around the country.

Plimer's tome, How to Get Expelled from School: a guide to climate change for pupils, parents and punters, argues that the theory of man-made global warming is a scientific and financial scam.

Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute, described the IPA's bid to influence science teaching as a "dangerous development".

"They're an advocacy group; they're putting forward the position of vested interests," he said. "This can happen in the political sphere; it shouldn't happen in the educational sphere.

"We have procedures for developing curricula and trusted sources of science – the Australian Academy of Science, the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, universities. That's where to go for information. Once you open it up to anyone with a vested influence it's basically a free for all."

Anthony Lonergan, a science teacher at Scone High School, told The Power Index he was shocked when his school received a copy of the book in January.
"I was outraged that the IPA was sending out this rubbish," Lonergan said.
The book was accompanied by a letter co-signed by Plimer, the institute's executive director John Roskam and Hunter property developer Jeff McCloy.

Roskam said he had received no complaints.

by lizzie on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:12 pm
http://theconversation.edu.au/community-cabinets-could-be-the-cure-for-gillards-communication-conundrum-6303

5 April 2012, 1.46pm AEST
Community cabinets could be the cure for Gillard’s communication conundrum
James Mahoney

Note, he doesn’t say its the only cure, just a one part of possible a communication strategy

by Leroy on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:14 pm
3881 Victoria

Re forum last night. Great to see Julia Gillard and her MPs all lined up. They all looked so friendly, polite, eager to help the crowd. Overall quite a good ambiance. But this morning on abc24 the same cliche by J Stanley: the Gillard government is a “rubble”. You just can’t win.

by gigi on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:14 pm
guytaur @ 3904

Bemused

Thank You. That was my mistake. I was thinking deregistration not losing affiliation.

I am relieved! I was wondering what was going on that I was unaware of.

by bemused on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Tom Hawkins @ 3900

If Abbott becomes PM I could always pretend to be a New Zealander when abroad. That might work.

Better start practising on your vowels right now just in case. That Kiwi accent takes a bit of work.

by bemused on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:20 pm
@gigi

Actually I think the government is winning. One vote at a time. The media is losing by the same amount. As more and more people see media claims unravel they become more and more sceptical. As this happens they end up roughly thinking as most here in PB do. Yes that includes dyed in the wool Liberal voters.

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:20 pm
gigi

As mentioned previously, the govt will have a strategy to combat this in second half of the year. That is my belief anyway

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Sky News Australia ‏ @SkyNewsAust
Details via @AhronYoung: Breaking: HSU has been suspended. Resolution passed

by Greensborough Growler on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:21 pm
I was thinking deregistration not losing affiliation.

There is also quite a difference between expulsion from membership and suspension, which is the only action that has been mooted by the ACTU so far.

People here seem to be getting these two actions mixed up.

by scorpio on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:22 pm
See what I mean? Collective MADNESS. I do so hope we snap out of it in time.

You could almost say that we’re sleepwalking our way to the election.

by ltep on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:23 pm
And for memories, a quote from a certain somebody in 2007

“There is no conclusive explanation for the Government’s poor run in the opinion polls,” he said. It was “an extraordinary honour” to serve the people, “yet they are demanding masters”.

by ltep on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:24 pm
guytaur

Your optimism is astounding. Hang on to it.
Abbott and his cronies are the masters of smear and the msm support them.
Headline in the Age this am implied that Gillard was involved in latest Melbourne AFL problems. These sub-editors are the devil incarnate.

by lizzie on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Just got a phone call from someone in India ? Telling me my computer has a bug and wants to help fix it. They wanted me to push the windows button + R button on keyboard together ? My mother (89yr ) with NO computer has been getting heaps of these phone calls and this is my 3rd one. I told them that i did that and my screen has gone Blue , and demanded to talk to their manager and told them i have a knock on the door and leave them hanging on the line. What are they trying to do ?

by Lord Barry Bonkton on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
Vote to kick HSU out of ACTU was 1797 in favor and 103 opposed to suspension.

by Greensborough Growler on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm
guytaur 3910

May you be right. I for one haven’t seen any such indication. But time is still on our side.

by gigi on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:26 pm
latikambourke Vote to kick HSU out of ACTU was 1797 in favor and 103 opposed to suspension.
3 minutes ago

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:27 pm
GG

Snap

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:28 pm
ACTU presser on ABC95 shortly.

by This little black duck on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Jack The Insider is calling for Swan to give up on the surplus. Says the nation can’t afford the pain. Claims it’s all “politics”.

Seems to be OK for the Coalition to play politics with surpluses and deficits, but when Labor is in power, we need to get all serious and practical… and run a deficit.

I write this as a comment on his blog, and cleaned up a couple of points in the process (posted here in case Jack takes my comment as personal, which it isn’t):

Jack, you'd have to forgive me (if you can find it in your heart) for hearing from a columnist in an anti-government newspaper (the newspaper, not you Jack, this is not ad hominem) decrying the attainment of surpluses.

I can follow your arguments and I agree with some of your points, but I can also follow the opposite point of view as well. It's passing strange to me that suddenly cost-cutting and fiscal discipline - even at the cost of some pain - are now regarded as silly trophies, to be discarded because they may include some downside. We didn't hear THAT when the Coalition was in power. We don't hear it now as a criticism of the Coalition. Deficits seem to be the only game in town. I thought the GFC was a "Northern Hemisphere thing". I thought the government should butt out of private enterprise and not prop up ailing industries? How peculiar, what a reversal! And so sudden!

The Coalition, which proposes even greater cost-cutting (if only they'd tell us where they are going to cut besides sacking 12,000 public servants), and promises even higher surpluses, while at the same time cutting taxes, subsidizing nannies (I thought they were the anti-Nanny Staters?), paying young women their full salary to subsidize their lifestyles while nursing babies, is let off almost scot free.

They say, "But we're not the government", yet you'd be hard pressed to find one journalist or opinion writer, one pollster or pundit saying anything else but that they are a shoo-in at the 2013 election, if not before.

So, if they're a dead-cert, London-to-a-brick sure thing, why aren't the Coaliton's policies and costings under even the most rudimentary of scrutiny? If they're so sure to win and become the government, shouldn't we ask about (and receive straight answers to) what they intend to do?

Which brings us to politics: the economic writers, almost to a person are saying we don't need a surplus and that the government should be condemned for virtually ensuring a recession to follow in the next 12-14 months. The government stands condemned for going for gold.

But if they don't achieve a surplus, the economics writers will give over to the political opinionistas, who will just as vehemently condemn the government for FAILING to deliver a surplus. That's politics: damned if you do and crucified if you don't.

It's the right of any government to seek re-election by doing everything in its power - within reason - to achieve that end. We are already at AAA rating right across the board of ratings agencies. We have low unemployment and interest rates, high wages, low taxes (the lowest in over a decade), yet still the nation is whingeing and moaning itself into an economic abyss, believing that we're rooned for sure.

The nation needs to be snapped out of its malaise or else the prophecy of the shock jocks and the partisans will become self-fulfilling. It needs to stand tall among other nations, who might take some inspiration from our efforts to renovate our own house before we lecture the rest of the world. But most importantly, Australia needs to regain faith in itself, to get away from the relentless negativity we see everywhere.

And yes, the government wants to be re-elected. It also wants to see the Opposition's costings and policies analysed with more than a passing glance, a nudge and a wink.

For all these reasons a surplus focuses our national energy and, in my opinion, is the right thing to go for.

"Keynesian down and Keynesian up" is Swan's motto. "Keynesian" is not a country in Africa. It's an economic philosophy that pulled us out of the mire quicker than any other country, Jack. Swan is sticking to his guns, and good on him for doing so.

by Bushfire Bill on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Can anyone ever remember a union being suspended? I can’t but it migh have been before my time/

by Space Kidette on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Andrew Wilkie, the Greens, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott must force the PM to release details of the FWA investigation.

If they don’t they will have lost all credibility they have as indepedents

by GeeWizz on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Marrickville Mauler,

a mostly toxic media, some with obvious malign motives , some acting from lack of basic professional competence, all of them will be to blame if we do get Abbott PM

And you watch. Should they get their way and we get an Abbott “government”, watch the instant turn-around. Without skipping a beat these shonks will change from being attackers of the (Labor) government to DEFENDERS of the (conservative) government! Their attack will move to the OPPOSITION, where they are now the Opposition’s propaganda carriers.

The bastardry of the Australian media is unparalleled outside of dictatorships such as Malaysia, North Korea and Saudi Arabia. You’d have to assume they’d like nothing better than to see a dictatorship here too!, such is their one-party support behind a leader with an expressed favouring of “GUIDED DEMOCRACY”.

by Cuppa on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Peter Martin is more often sensible than most others in the media, but he is a paid up member of the anti-NBN brigade. Says some really stupid things about it and buys the whole ‘we can do just as good wif wireless/copper/magik/two tin cans and a length of string’ gobbledegook. He’s an economist dontchaknow. Where’s the cost benefit analysis, if it was worth doing then Telstra would have done it kinda guy. Such people like to ignore natural monopoly as an issue and all of the side effects it causes, not to mention the history of higher costs and slowed capital investment that occur when natural monopolies are privatised.

He can tell you the price of the NBN but hasn’t the first idea about it’s value.

by ratsak on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Lord Barry Bonkton

It looks bad

Latest phone scam – Asian cold caller trying to take over my pc

He asked me to type the Windows key and R – in other words to start a “run” box in which to type in programme commands. He then says to type eventvwr (very clearly and spelt phonetically, much clearer than when the call started and I asked him which company he worked for) ]
http://pcrescue.wordpress.com/2010/06/12/latest-phone-scam-asian-cold-caller-trying-to-take-over-my-pc/

by poroti on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:31 pm
The union is set today to be suspended from the ACTU, as the union movement distances itself from the allegations swirling around Mr Thomson.

MG seems to be so fixated on what Abbott was hoping to gain from an adverse finding against Thomson that she seems to be closed off to the possibility that other persons might be of far more interest in the investigation & report.

She of course is not the only one in the media that is totally fixated on just one person.

An HSU spokesman said officials would argue strongly against its expulsion.''Unions need to stick together through difficult times,'' he said.

Seems she can’t tell the difference between suspension & expulsion either. For a scribe with such a reputation that she has enjoyed for such a long time, these sort of basic errors are unlikely to be made by even a high school student doing an essay. Sad!

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomson-inquiry-misfires-20120404-1wdaf.html

by scorpio on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Lord Barry Bonkton
Posted Thursday, April 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink
Just got a phone call from someone in India ? Telling me my computer has a bug and wants to help fix it. They wanted me to push the windows button + R button on keyboard together ? My mother (89yr ) with NO computer has been getting heaps of these phone calls and this is my 3rd one. I told them that i did that and my screen has gone Blue , and demanded to talk to their manager and told them i have a knock on the door and leave them hanging on the line. What are they trying to do ?
==================================
Anything like this you have to assume is a scam to get hold of your bank details.
Just keep virus and firewall programs up to date. NOW is a good time to do so as there is a new problem with javascript. Apple has pushed out an update fix. I am sure Microsoft is doing the same.

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Victoria 3911

Thanks for your uplifting comment. We’ll have to wait for July.

by gigi on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Craig Thomson is in the ALP not the HSU.

Union hevies protecting union heavies is an ALP specialty

by GeeWizz on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:35 pm
SK

BLF did get deregistered a whole world worse than the HSU is in. Goes back to Costigan Royal Commission days. Howard’s Bottom of the Harbour Schemes.

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:35 pm
SK

The BLF was deregistered years back. Do you recall the name Norm Gallagher?

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Lord Harry Bonkton,

What are they trying to do ?

Hoping to sell you a “cure” for your stuffed computer?

by Cuppa on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:35 pm
guytaur

Snap!

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:36 pm
@Lord/3917

Those are scam artists,

Don’t give them anything, don’t buy anything from them, hang up on them.

And tell you’re friends about them too.

by zoidlord on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:36 pm
BB

Very disappointed in Martin that he would promote such tainted tosh.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/nbn-labelled-a-waste-to-set-labor-back-years-20120404-1wd9l.html#ixzz1r81ltfof

billie

BB, I think Peter Martin was told to write the above crap. As a paid up member of the Peter Martin fan club, that’s not his normal writing style. He rarely indulges in “he said, she said” reporting

bemused

It is quite obvious in that article Peter Martin is merely reporting what some so called “Business Leader” said. He is not expressing his own opinion.

I think people here often jump at shadows.

From Peter Martin’s blog:

Anonymous said...
Whats with the copy and paste of a press release journalism?

Was interested to see the opening sentence backed up with some type of analysis/facts. Instead more of the usual partisan nonsense

Martin replies:

Peter Martin said...
Copy and paste of a press release? ??

I’m with BB and billie on this one. Martin doesn’t even seem to realise he has offered no analysis!

by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Oops. link to Peter Martin’s blog:

http://www.petermartin.com.au/2012/04/announce-it-and-hope-for-best-nbn-style.html

by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Lord Barry Bonkton,

Just got a phone call from someone in India ? Telling me my computer has a bug and wants to help fix it.

Do what I do. I tell them I don’t have a computer, not even a laptop.

They generally hang up immediately on me.

by scorpio on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:38 pm
SK

The BLF had its fair share of issues re corruption, but I have a fair bit of knowledge about its history. For one thing, it was involved in campaigns to save places Places of heritage in NSW.

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:40 pm
SK

Victoria is of course referring to the famous Jack Mundey Green Bans.

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Andrew Wilkie, the Greens, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott must force the PM to release details of the FWA investigation.

If they don’t they will have lost all credibility they have as indepedents

Truthie, you have already lost your credibility , if you had any before.

the PM cannot force FWA to do anything. It is an independent body free from the control of the Govt. Unless you want a Canberra Dictatorship.

by The Finnigans on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:42 pm
guytaur, victoria,

Now you mention it I do remember the BLF.

by Space Kidette on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:43 pm
In regards to telemarketers, this website is magnificent: https://www.donotcall.gov.au/

Even if it does take about a month for your number to be fully registered, you can easily end all conversations with “This number is on the do not call register” before they can try their conning techniques on you.

I had them calling daily at one point, now I haven’t had a call since I registered last August.

by Von Kirsdarke on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:44 pm
I still dont get it why the ACTU suspends HSU and on what basis?

by The Finnigans on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:44 pm
guytaur

Yes indeed. i have a family member who has helped someone document the history of the BLF. He has given me a verbal history of the union as well as his own interpretation of events.

by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:44 pm
@Truthy,

You have lost credibility.

Actually you’re in the MINUS zone of credibility.

God even as some like myself knows that under an investigation you can’t force anything to release details.

by zoidlord on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Finnigans

If truthie is Clive Palmer he could well desire such an outcome. We are talking tin f oil hat territory.

by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 2:45 pm

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