Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition
The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:
• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.
• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.
• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.
• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.
• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.
• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.
• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
guytaur @ 530
This should also be applied to the organisation (iSelect from memory) which is currently saying the government is about to announce Private Health Insurance price rises, as though the government is responsible for those rises.
by bemused on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:18 pm
(1) – ETS / Carbon Pricing
(2) – Bruce Willis
by Sossman on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Bemused I am in no doubt that the Coalition policies to reverse both the carbon price model and mining tax are the wrong way to go and they should develop policies to improve both. However politically they are doing better at present just sticking to the current course. It’s all about winning government and dealing with the rest later. Not much different to what Gillard did in August/September 2010.
by DavidWH on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Boerwar you just really don’t get!
I couldn’t give a rats about Labor voters swinging to the Greens.
I care about Labor voters switching to the Liberals.
Labor get Green votes back on preferences. Stop presenting the farce of an argument that it is to the detriment of the Labor Party to lose votes to the Greens.
If those that switch to the Greens and want to give their preferences to the bestest friend the environment EVER had, please feel free!
by Centre on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Centre.
It is the Nats who should be concerned. They have votes swinging to the Greens and to Katter.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Carbon price schizophrenia. My goodness, the vested interests are reacting differently to their rhetoric. Whodda thunk!
http://www.climatespectator.com.au/commentary/carbon-price-schizophrenia#.T3kbioXV3Go.twitter
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:30 pm
M77
The Greens have the respectability they crave by right of holding the BOP in the Senate – something they are likely to have for the next ten years, on present polling. They also have the respectability of having 10-15% preference power in the House. They also have a certain self-respect: they believe that the Greens party will not go away, to use their terminology.
I voted Greens first in the Senate in the last election. I did so because I thought it would be the most powerful way I could vote for climate action. Subsequent events have demonstrated that I was right, IMHO. The result is still inadequate, but it is better than what I would have gotten had I voted for either the Labor Party or the Greens in the Senate. BTW, I suggest that if you want to keep the centre-left vote split and weak, keep calling Greens voters ‘loonies’.
… except that the Greens feel no compunction to give Labor preferences or to support Labor in the Senate. Why should they support people who insist on ignoring that they exist except to call them ‘loonies’ from time to time. Put yourself in their shoes for a second and think about how you would feel with that sort of contemptuous treatment?
Labor will never gain government again on the basis of the working class vote. There are not enough working class people left. It needs to have a broader appeal. As for calling people ‘nongs’ see my comment above. Making enemies of the voters you need to form government is not very smart.
With the sort of insults you serve up you can be pretty sure that the ‘nongs’, ‘loonies’ and ‘nutcases’ are not going to support your 2PP. They are only human, after all.
That, on all recent polling, leaves the Labor Party short on primary numbers of something like 14-24% of the total primary vote. And short of government for the next 10-20 years.
The Labor Party needs to understand that changing the head does not fix the body. It needs internal reform. It needs to form a strategic alliance with the Greens.
In the interim, the head in the sand routine will ensure defeat at the next Federal elections and around 10-15 years in the electoral wilderness for the centre-left vote.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:30 pm
The polls are looking a little ‘stuck’ to me. people aren’t engaged with meaning information sources. Alot of the sentiment is based on urban myths and ill-informed outrage.
Unfortunately, I am starting to believe that this is permanent, and that good policy is no longer sufficient. And I’m not sure I want the party I vote for doing the things that might be necessary to win over the electorate in its current mood.
I know plenty on here will say ‘chin up’ etc. But it’s becoming increasingly difficult to see that light on the hill….
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:32 pm
that should read “people aren’t engaged with meaningFUL information sources.”
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:33 pm
guytaur
Something else, the Nats are the ones who are in a real coalition.
If the Greens ever wanted to even dream about being in coalition with Labor (and what a sad day that would be). They must learn to do what the Nats do!
SHUT UP and ZIP…..
by Centre on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Well, that didn’t take long…
The DT is at it again… running polls (with 10,000 votes against Gillard in four hours), printing Latham stories on how we “can’t have a liar as PM”, blaming her for unemployment in Western Sydney, telling the Reserve Bank what it should do, slagging off Tim Flannery (using yet another poll… I mean a poll on Tim Flannery? Jesus wept!), and writing menacing stories how “fat cats” in electricity companies are going to be stripped of their high wages and made to compensate pensioners for high prices (anpther downer on electricity prices can never hurt).
It’s Hadley in print, or should that be Hadley is the DT on the airwaves? Or perhaps both?
The nastiness, the vitriol, the contempt, the whining viciousness is appalling.
This newspaper is a living, breathing emobdiment of all that is wrong with Australia – in that Australians are so easily led by shit sheet such as this – and a condemnation of the malignant, treacherous, victimisation that has become the Murdoch hallmark all over the world.
Murdoch’s self-pity, his view of himself (and his Daddy before him) as being persecuted by elites, has made this planet Earth and in particular this city of Sydney a very unpleasant place to live.
An utter disgrace.
by Bushfire Bill on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Bushfire, hence why i wrote 555.
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Bill Shorten is doing a press conference as I type. Industrial relations is back.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm
C
It is clear to me that you do not understand what is happening to Australia’s environment. I don’t have much time for Labor’s efforts on the environment. They have been part of a series of governments that is generating:
(1) continuing over- population in Australia
(2) disastrous management of fresh water resources, including the environmental devastation of the MDB
(3) humungous biodiversity loss in Australia
(4) the virtually untrammelled introduction of feral animals and environmental weed species
(5) global warming
(6) mass forest clearing
(7) massive soil erosion, loss of topsoil and loss of nutrients; massive salinisation, sodicity and acidity coupled with a deterioration in soil structures.
Labor has not been the solution or the best friend that the environment has ever had. It has been part of the problem. That is why there is a Greens party in the first place. Rather than be complacent about both the environment and the political situation, you should face the facts.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Bemused: what you forget is that there were Libs ready to cross the floor in both Houses.
All Rudd needed to do was to negotiate with the Coalition, Greens and the crossbenchers, rather than taking the very risky strategy of negotiating only with a bunch of lying bastards, some on whom were very, very vocally opposed to taking any action on climate change.
He had no Plan B, that was the problem. If he had negotiated in good faith with the Greens and the crossbenchers then he might have been able to muster the numbers to get it up in 2009.
Once the Libs walked away, the numbers weren’t even nearly there because he had pissed off the Greens so badly be refusing to deal with them.
It would have been very interesting to see what would have been nutted out if it was Gillard who had been in the big chair back then. What the past 2 years has shown is that she seems to be very good at bringing disparate people together and getting them to reach some sort of consensus.
Whether she would have been able to work that parliament as well as she has this one is something, unfortunately, we will never know for sure.
by Danny Lewis on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Shorten giving the banks a kicking for wanting to chop penalty rates for lowest paid bank workers while ceo’s earn millions. go for it bill.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:37 pm
DavidWH: listen to dead leader on this one.
He reckons if you are going to tackle climate change effectively and efficiently, why not do it with a simple tax?
by Danny Lewis on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:38 pm
PTMD. More class wars eh?
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Centre
The Greens have too much integrity to do that. If their is to be a colition on the left the Sussex Street right will have to learn they re not Liberal Lite.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:40 pm
guytaur
That is because there is a minimum wage case on the go. There have been two attacks by employers;
(1) one based on ‘over-compensation for the carbon tax (!!) I do hope that the Government trumpets that one left right and centre
(2) they want to de-weekendize the weekend. In other words they want to get rid of weekend penalties.
It was the latter that Mr Shorten was just now attacking.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:40 pm
For those from Labor bagging the Greens, I think you are on the wrong tram.
On the one hand, 15% of the electorate voted for the Greens last time around, and may I remind, without their preferences, Labor + + now would not be controlling the Treasury Benches, nor would some significant legislation have passed the Senate.
I proffer for evidence Stephen Smith in the Perth electorate.
At the polling booth I was working, the Green vote went up from about 8% to nearly 16% in 2010 from 2007.
Let me make this nice and clear, he would NOT have won without Green preferences.
The people who are voting Green now, who did not in 2007 are mainly disaffected Labor voters and I sense, short of disaster in 2013, most are NOT coming back.
I get the sense they were totally let down by Rudd’s cop out (though the Greens themselves were their own worst enemy) with Climate Change legislation, many feel Labor has followed the AS path of the Libs while the Gay vote is also largely at this end of the spectrum.
Now we come again to the 8% Labor voters missing in action – they being part of some poll recently which claimed that 38% saw themselves as “Labor voters” but could not bring themselves, at the moment, to vote Labor.
It is these votes that Rudd had in his pocket. They were, probably, Howard’s Battlers, and I sense it is this mob who are currently sleeping with the enemy.
It is this group which Labor is just not getting on board. I am loath to try to categorize them as William has chastised us before claiming the “lumpen unwashed” is some kind of mythology, but I wonder.
While it is true 70-80% of Green preferences come back to Labor, and just as well they do, the Labor vote has to be somewhere in the 40s in relevant seats for this to be of any use. Not much good getting a potential 80% preference flow when your primary is only 30%.
Labor is not at death’s door by any means, and the wail of the conservatives has not changed for months
Remember the AFR article of nearly a year ago which claimed that in parliament, all the Labor members looked “defeated”?
This was crap then as it is crap now, but this does not stop the harpies from the Right using it time and time again.
It is as it was from Day 1. Labor on its feet. Labor is governing. Labor is in charge.
Conservatives are in opposition where they belong. Galling for them but tough.
The polls not good for the progressives, and the government is “unpopular” but then many, many governments have been in this position but come election time, guess what, the opposition stays in opposition as was the case for Labor on many occasions.
Some will remember how Labor, say four weeks out from the polls were leading something like 56-44 and week by week, with glee, the OO would track the fortunes showing a waning Labor vote and a strengthening conservative one and with a note of triumph, just before the election, “Liberals Hit the Lead”.
There is absolutely no reason at all why it cannot work the other way – that is, when the electorate has to make a real choice not just gripe.
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Boarwar
God created all men and woman as equals. Then he created Tony and since then the atheists have been raising hell.
The final budget for the Abbott government was captured on canvas with Abbott offering cash with Mesma and eleven followers during the last surplus.
by rummel on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Centre,
Don’t bother. The fact that Labor has succeeded for years by remaining a strong centrist party is totally disregarded by the Greens urgers.
You are absolutely right. Labor will not win/retain Government by pandering to the nonsense of the leftists and Greens who think labor could fix everything by being more like them. The reality is that the opposite is true.
The facts are that the 5% of the vote Labor needs to retain Government is parked with the Libs not the Greens. The Greens vote overwhelmingly returns to Labor’s coffers (80%) without Labor doing anything more than telling the Greens they smell.
The smart operatives will be focussing their attention and developing their policies to attract those moderates who are currently supporting the Libs.
It’s not rocket lettuce.
Queensland showed the Greens are not trusted by mainstream voters. Remember they were going to win seats off the Nats over CSG.
In the recent Niddrie by election Greens couldn’t even come second in a race without the Libs.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Boerwar
You do not know how the 2PP voting system works!
And you do not have the intelligence to distinguish between the policies of Labor and the Greens.
The Greens are further away to the left than One Nation is to the right of Tony Abbott, much further.
Do not associate both Labor and the Greens in the same spectrum of centre left, it is grossly offensive!
by Centre on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:42 pm
I feel your pain man. Like you I’d rather that the ALP didn’t change it’s direction just to hold onto power. My preference would be to go out in a blaze of glory. Give us ‘rusties’ something we can be proud of in 10 years time.
by Sossman on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Essential 55LIB :45 ALP
http://essentialvision.com.au/essential-research
by shellbell on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Geytaur
Let me know when you have got rid of, or reformed Labor, and a new centre-left government is in place!! Swapping insults will delay the likelihood of this happening. In the interim, let the conservatives enjoy the fruits of righteous internicine squabbling amongst centre-left parties.
Enjoy.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Thanks Soss. what are your thoughts on party reform? I think i can guess them… being a non-affiliated type like myself.
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:49 pm
@Boerwar
On Penalty Rates Shorten AND the banks are right. To fix this increase minimum weekly wage to point income the same as worked with pnalty rates. Cost to the banks would remain the same as would the wages received by workers. Thus flexibility achieved with no inome loss or increased cost to business.
Of course for diametrically opposite reasons both Management and unions will oppose this. That is of course if you can get states to agree to losing another tax.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Boerwar
Stop trying to push Labor to the loony left with the Greens by bracketting both parties in the centre left.
It is an appalling but totally useless tactic.
And read GG at 571, to learn something about common sense!
by Centre on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Centre
I do. Only 80 out of every 100 Greens voters give their second preference to the Labor Party. Perhaps calling them loonies, nutjobs and whatever will improve their motivation to give Labor 2nd preference. But my guess would be that it would not.
I voted for Labor in the House and the Greens in the Senate. I do believe that I know something about Labor and Greens policies. I notice that you routinely include ad hominem attacks in your posts. Here’s a suggestion: calling people nasty names or denigrating them tends to ensure that they think less of you personaly and hence, less of what you trying to say.
Ummm, not sure how you came to that analysis.
BTW, which Greens policies do you regard as extreme?
Do not associate both Labor and the Greens in the same spectrum of centre left, it is grossly offensive!
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:50 pm
geytaur
But then no-one would want to work on weekends. They would all want to work Mon-Frid 9-5.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:51 pm
On actual party reform I’ll have to get back to you on that on Middle Man. Haven’t been to a branch meeting yet but I’m sure I’ll spot some problems in the first hour or so
by Sossman on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Essential Poll
Only 25% of people think Gillard is trustworthy.
Hard to come back from there.
by bluegreen on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:53 pm
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/whistling-for-cash/161/
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/a-quantum-theory-of-mitt-romney.html
by Leroy on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm
@Boerwar
Not true. You would still get your weekend. Just on different days. Let he tax free religions adapt. Not the other way round.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Penalty rates are paid because the employee is paying a penalty for working unusual hours.
by ruawake on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm
r
cf your Abbott jape:
*laughs*
I needed it. My attempts to reform the centre-left vote are being frustrated by people who would rather have a conservative government in power than to share power sensibly with the other centre-left party.
Just your luck that you guys have sorted out sensible coalition arrangements between the National and Liberal parties. (Pity about the policies, though).
It makes far more sense than squabbling and infighting and three-cornered contests. The centre-left has a bit to learn from the conservative side of politics.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:54 pm
middle man
Too right.
The working and middle classes have been warred upon for decades by the top classes. In fact it never stopped, not even from Charles Dickens days. The GFC was proof of that.
Why do you think there is such an emphasis on ‘Law and Order’ at every election? It isn’t to stop granny’s handbag snatcher. The pepper-spray, tasers, guns and militarisation of our police forces is to protect the rich from the poor. (which is the historical reason for the creation of police)
Just in case the lower classes get the idea to bring out the knitting needles again.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Geytaur
I am not arguing religions, doG forbid. I am arguing that everyone would want to party on Friday, recover on Saturday morning, do the shopping Saturday afternoon, watch the footie and/or party on Saturday night, recover Sunday morning, wash the clothes and mow the lawn and be with family on Sunday afternoon and then all go back to work on Monday.
You know it makes sense.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:56 pm
sossman. quite true. next time i run into shayne sutton or di i might ask them what their take on ‘reform’ is.
by middle man on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Rudd should have held a leadership challenge this week..
by GeeWizz on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:57 pm
@ruawake
Working weekends are not unusual hors for service industries. That includes retailing.
by guytaur on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Mumble has a few things that he doesn’t believe about polls and stuff. Good reading.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/things_i_dont_believe/P50/
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Centre
Within three years there will be conservative governments in place in every state and territory and at the Federal level.
That’s what I call the appalling results of useless tactics.
by Boerwar on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm
bg,
Read Mumble.
John Howard was never regarded as trustworthy.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Would love to hear how two salaried people with a mortgage can magically reduce their taxable income in a legal way. There are surprisingly few ways to do this – only self-education expenses, home office expenses, and that’s about it.
by Patrick Bateman on Apr 2, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Looks like a definite split of opinion here re the Greens!
I do not see the Greens as enemies of Labor but sure as hell I see the conservatives as the real poison. If their groupies who turn up here are anything to go by, what a miserable lot.
As someone has already noted, Essential is about as it was, while most references to the current 57-43 split has all but disappeared from on-line news.
At the moment, people are just not listening as they know an election is a long way off.
I agree as well, I prefer Labor to stick to its current policies and leadership. They can go to an election campaign with clear differentiation. If this is not palatable to the electorate, well so be it.
At that point the electorate will know what is is rejecting and if if is stupid enough to accept the unknown from Abbott ,well so be it too.
Come Day 1 after an Abbott led victory will be something to look forward to. We will all be in Nirvana and the harpies on the right will stop being harpies and all will be lovely for all in Oz.
Pigs, of course, do not fly.
We know all we will get is “black holes”, “they were not telling the truth”, “world conditions have changed”, “it is too difficult to change that legislation”, “we will do it when we can afford it”, “the public service become bloated under Labor”, “that will come in in our next term in office” blah, blah, blah.
What I will not cop is the any Abbott shite about “I will govern for all Australians” and if he and his supporters think that he will get an easy run, he can forget it.
It will be all stops out to destroy his leadership and policies as soon as possible. What comes around goes around.
by Tricot on Apr 2, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Would have still been flogged. By a slightly narrower margin but still flogged.
by Sossman on Apr 2, 2012 at 2:00 pm
The latest Essential found that most people thought that government was too big; and simultaneously thought that government provided too little in the way of health, transport and regulation.
by bluegreen on Apr 2, 2012 at 2:00 pm