Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Seems like there is a swing away from Labor and the current FWA mess will not help them.
by DavidWH on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:05 pm
current is the key word, the fact that Australian people are allowing the Coalition to interfere with investigations is rather disappointing, we are heading towards other countries.
by zoidlord on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Actually abbott farce will not help the liberal party
im believing he is gone once the carbon pricing comes in
by Meguire Bob on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:07 pm
DavidWH
Dunno how much permanent damage the HSU thing will do, prob very little IMO, but it sucks oxygen away from Labor talking about other things.
Labor obviously needs to change a few votes and this gives them less time to do it.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:08 pm
DavidWH
After that Presser the Coalition will be seeking. New leader. It was outrageous.
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:08 pm
He is acting too aggressive to remain leader for the long haul til the election
He is in his final 4 months, to get an election or say good bye
by Meguire Bob on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:08 pm
by victoria on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:10 pm
DavidWH, mid term, every negative issue will not help any Govt.
However, i will fight them on the beaches, on the mountains, on every street, alley and house2house, hand2hand combat with my BISONs – http://bit.ly/GKselc
by The Finnigans on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:10 pm
David, mostly gone togreens and others, thsts good liberals are on the nose,
William it would be nice if you hilighted in big black letters the figures after allocation of pref, please
Isuspect passers by only read headlines, now that would not be to much trouble would it
by my say on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:10 pm
vic
Presumably to the Senate committee.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Fargling bullsheight, that’s exactly what I call it. Can’t wait until Campbell raises the old association laws.
by Smaug on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:12 pm
I assume the Senate committee can release the report publicly without fear of libel?
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Melissa Clarke ABC 24
Abbot high risk strategy
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:14 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-05/community-builds-new-home-for-fire-devastated-family/3933956
Something really lovely from the Unions and others.
by MTBW on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:14 pm
I’m reposting this from the last thread (I got in a bit late):
Hello bludgers. Although I have officially quit the internet I am back on for a few days over Easter so I can download Wrestlemania and a few other things and I thought I would say hello.
I listened to the Julia fat arse controversy with interest the other day. All our well bred, politically correct instincts tell us that we should not judge a person (particularly a woman) by their physical appearance, and comments on the subject are crude, boorish and unwelcome.
Which is all true I guess, but then things are rarely as simple as that. I have noticed a tendency here on PB for the Labor bludgers to focus on the practical, factual side of Labor in power and in many ways to scorn the politics of the present situation. They seem to think that you can somehow separate the “facts” (BISONs etc) from the politics (spin, slogans, tactics, criticisms of style, presentation, communication and physical appearance) and that to emphasise one is to be virtuous and to emphasise the other is to be low brow and cretinous (i.e Tony Abbottesque).
But I’m not sure. Politics IS about appearances, and there is something slightly strange about the Labor Bludgers retreat from actual politics into this sort of technocratic perspective.
Where Julia Gillard fails is in leadership – in the projection of her personality and values into the political debate. People who act like this doesn’t matter so long as she gets X number of bills through the parliament really don’t understand politics at all.
The differences between modern Labor and the coalition are so slight that investing so much emotion in the ALP‘s agenda seems like such a silly thing to do. If Julia Gillard had the charisma and skills to create a cult of personality then at least the slavish devotion would be more understandable. As it is I really wonder why people bother.
I used to be horrified by Tony Abbott but as time goes on I am finding myself admiring his political talents, and a small (but growing) part of me wants to see him triumph over Julia Gillard. I will revel in her disgrace, because with the policy differences between Labor and the coalition so fundamentally slight, the human drama is all that’s interesting to me in politics right now. Bring it on I say.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Its a Bongo tweet don’t get too excited.
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Abbott is gone after this fiasco
by Meguire Bob on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Yep Bongo missed a bit.
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:22 pm
So you’re impressed by sheer wankery?
“Revel in her disgrace”? Hmmm. How very noble of you.
by jenauthor on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Ge if clarke says its high risk it must be,
As abbott has destroyed my logic brain , why is
Nothikng he says sticks
Will he be off to the cathederal tonight holy thursday is bigger tan ben hur in te chuch.
by my say on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Don’t y LSL I was never in doubt of your position as a supporter of Abbott and a denegrator of women generally.
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Larry, no prob. If you prefer hollow over substance that’s your choice.
by The Finnigans on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:25 pm
LSL
You cracking a fat over Abbott?
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:30 pm
@Maguire Bob
Who next?
Julie Bishop or is she going to be content as second banana gain?
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:30 pm
I don’t agree with the way the Coalition are interfering in this issue and said that strongly yesterday however there is something very wrong when a government department withholds information from a police investigation. That is what will be hurting the government.
by DavidWH on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:30 pm
My Say
Use Easter as an Abbott break.
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Hate to be Liberal Party person on Capital Hill, or Agenda tonight.
How close is the Defamation line.
by guytaur on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Fair Work Australia is not a Govt Department, it is a body, created by statute, to be independent of Govt. Its head is a Justice of the Supreme Court. I think they know the law better than most.
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Every time I see Abbott say this brings a whopping great grin to my face.
I wonder if even he knows what it means?
by scorpio on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:35 pm
LSL
You were right the first time.
by Boerwar on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Lll. Back over esster, is this to punish us re lent,
Now tell us, as its eater just which msm publication your from, do u live in wa.
Do u live in the portals of parliment house. Do you sit withthe press gallery do u have a column, a tv show, . Orare u the phantom of the net. Cough up we have a rightto know who are,
But infact easter is a bit precious to me so i have no intention of reading blah blah
O i know your the ester bunny, did head rabbitt send you:-)
by my say on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:37 pm
From The Age
compared to the ABC
Incredibly The Age did not mention the overwheming numbers in the article. Very poor effort from journalist Clay Lucas… or is that Clay Lucas junior staffer in charge of washing up the coffee cups.
by Tom Hawkins on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:39 pm
I hope this link works (let me know), if not it’s free to register to read Business Spectator, and worthwhile as they have some good articles.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/NBN-Co-broadband-Mike-Quigley-carbon-tax-Telstra-pd20120405-T2T59?opendocument&src=idp&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=28893&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary
more in the article
by Leroy on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:39 pm
see ru at 28
Yes, misinformation is hurting the govt.
Why don’t you do something about it.
Correct it, rather than revel in it.
But, let’s face it, your faux interest is nothing more than faux outrage!
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Yes i did not buy one bunny , there are two many out there now, hiding behind bushes
With big L signs on
. Oly bought eggs tbe symbol of new life and newbegginnings, its quite symbolic that this all happened now,
Bettercheck my easter buns
by my say on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm
The usual suspects saying this “I’m a lumberjack and but I’m all right” kind of attitude…
by zoidlord on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm
Barnaby, too scared to contest a labor seat, or Windsors seat?
Obviously has no faith in Tone leading them to victory.
Still has not clicked with him that you win government by winning seats from the government not by winning seats from your colleagues.
And he has ambitions to be deputy PM!
Be funny if labor hang on by one seat in 2013.
by castle on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Leisure suitL
You really didn’t have to bother. Actually your all over the place like a cheap suit!
by Dr John on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:42 pm
DavidWH
Be careful. You are being overwhelmed by Lib misibformation. You are usually so logical and fair that I’d hate you to be drawn down the Rabbotthole.
by lizzie on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:43 pm
There it is again – that missing 6-8% of the vote of nominally “Labor” voters now spread over “Other”, Greens and/or resting with the enemy.
What is it about them, at present, which makes them think that the conservatives will look after their interests better?
It is almost as though they are doffing their cloth caps to those who should be their rightful betters.
Having said this, I just can’t work out why Abbott is in any danger at the moment.
For one, nobody really gives a stuff out in voter land about the HSU and what goes with it.
Secondly, it is a negative issue and at, present, just adds to Abbott’s theme. Fairly consistent from him I would have thought.
There will come a day or reckoning for the Noalition but closer to the election.
Most people are not really engaged in politics or are really paying any attention.
Still, it would be nice to see some kind of pick up in the polls from a morale point of view if nothing else. Conversely, when Morgan has picked up for Labor in the past it is usually ignored and thus this one should have much the same treatment I guess.
by Tricot on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:46 pm
And I believe, like many other statuatory bodies (eg the Medical Board), that it receives info during investigations on the basis that their investigations are privileged and they only release evidence when compelled by law to do so.
That is certainly the case with the Medical Board.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:48 pm
scorps
Thomson even voted for Rudd in the leadership ballot. Abbott is becoming frenzied.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:50 pm
@guytaur
Julie Bishop is very unlikely
the replacement likely imo wont be an abbott supporter or agree with his policies
Abbott applying his last gigantic effort to get an election within 4 months
by Meguire Bob on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:51 pm
zoidlord
I didn’t want to be a barber anyway.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zey8567bcg
by ruawake on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Lizzie I understood that both NSW & VIC police have requested information From FWA which has been refused which is the issue I can’t agree with it. If I’m wrong about that then I’m happy to apologize.
by DavidWH on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Tricot
I think our hope is that Tone’s ravings will wake up some of the msm that he is not the steady, clever leader they would like to think, but just a b.s. artist.
by lizzie on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:53 pm
The SANFL is playing a match for the first time on Good Friday and serving alcohol. I gather the NRL has been doing this for ages.
Given that nothing happens on Good Friday, it would be a great day for the AFL to play a big match. They need to move with the times.
by Diogenes on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:55 pm
DavidWH – where did you get that information?
by kezza2 on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:55 pm
DavidWH
I’m hoping that the truth will come out in the wash. atm I’m not believing anyone.
by lizzie on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:55 pm
mysay I am the easter goldfish. I leave lincoln logs in your sock drawer.
I used to think that there was no way that Labor was doing as badly as all these polls are telling us – I used to think that the primary vote in particular was ridiculously low and they could never go that low in an actual election. But then Queensland happened and now I’m not sure.
It seems incredible to me that Tony Abbott could be elected PM – my first impression when he was elected leader was that he had “unelectable” written all over him. There is a sort of schoolboyish immaturity about him which I had assumed would put off all but the most hardened of liberal voters.
But then Labor made Julia Gillard leader and what a disaster she’s been. It has been incredible to watch. I think I am not the only one who is coming to accept that Tony Abbott is going to be the next Prime Minister. It will certainly be interesting to see how he does.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Apr 5, 2012 at 5:57 pm