Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
And, BH, does similar drying work on Bay leaves? Not for myself. Had a nice compact bush that’s gone utterly berserk (heading to forest status inc via root suckers) with all the rain. I want to do some bunches, pkts etc for local fund-raisers, but don’t have facilities (no wood fire).
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:20 am
Poss made an absolute fool out of Matthew Franklin on twitter yesterday over these claims.
It astounds me that the OO continues to be the go-to publication for Canberra insiders. It’s no better than a tabloid shit sheet.
by confessions on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:21 am
#1300 oops . Should be …
And, zoomster does similar drying work on Bay leaves?
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:22 am
Confessions
Toilet paper serves a useful function. Not sure you can say the same about the 00.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:23 am
Barry O’Farrell is doing the populist thing and avoiding tough decisions that might upset local communities even though there are National issues of productivity and economic well being at stake.
Imagine if the Federal Government ever made tough decisions that are overwhelmingly unpopular in the short term but will deliver long term benefits to all Australians in the future.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:24 am
That’s because those “neighbouring” seats have critical infrastructure of the type that gets NBN priority, and his has lots of Retirement Villages.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:25 am
Some of the FWA questions I raised late night are starting to get a run in the media. Once again, corruption or incompetence?.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/thomson-saga-drags-on-and-on-20120406-1wgdn.html
by rummel on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:27 am
OzPol
Don’t you know? Its the long term conspiracy of the setting up of exchanges when the copper network was laid out.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:28 am
rummel,
Almost the entire management of FWA are made up of ex-union hacks, if you want to see how a government can stack a “independent body” this is it.
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:29 am
rummel
I refer you to Joel Fitzgibbon’s very appropriate comments. Something the Media and Oppositions should take note of. Not doing so could come to bite them in the future.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:29 am
I feel very uneasy about ex-union bosses investigating ex-union bosses.
What we need is a real independent body to investigate and that means NSW and Victorian Police
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:32 am
GW
Do us a favour and shut up for four weeks. The report is coming out then. It is going to Senate Committee. It will be revealed to the public. Stop hyperventilating just because it is not going to your timetable. That is NO EARLY ELECTION.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:34 am
BH
separate leaves from stem.
Place (single layer) between sheets of newspaper or paper towel. (I fold piece of newspaper, put leaves on one half, and fold over).
Microwave on High 1 min 30 secs (as microwaves vary, do your first batch in 30 second spurts to make sure).
Leaves should crumble easily if they’re ready.
*** Do not re use newspaper or paper towel – if they dry out too much they catch fire!!
by zoomster on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:35 am
guytaur
Oh, I forgot the necessary conspiracy theory! And it would have nothing to do with Dutton’s being such an obnoxious (expletives redacted) AH that the LNP refused to endorse him for a safer seat when Fed ALP was so high in the OpPolls he looked like getting the treatment handed out to the unpleasant Mr Brough in 2007.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:36 am
Read that, the man is a complete tool.
They are getting all hot an bothered about the 3 year fiber rollout, when the the wireless and satellite coverage is due to be FINISHED in 2015/16.
Given that’s regional, that will mainly cover Noalition electorate’s but they aren’t complaining about the fact it will give their constituents reliable internet with 4 times the speed i get now in Fremantle @ the same rate as a metro customer pays.
AND, it will be lit up and running 2015/2016!!! Grrrrr……..
Idiots from the OO reporting by press release. So much FUD from so many overpaid idiots in a stupidly partisan MSM.
by imacca on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:39 am
Sounds like alot of if’s and rants there rummel.
by zoidlord on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:41 am
Excluding Qld
The liberal primary vote is less then 42% in the rest of Australia
If the L-Np gets less then 26 seats in qld they will not win the election outright
That is a guarantee
by Meguire Bob on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:42 am
Don’t know about bay leaves, but would suggest using same instructions and see what happens!!
by zoomster on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:43 am
Even in WA?
I don’t think you have checked your facts on this one. Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania are certainly softer states for the Libs, but the reality is that the Libs probably won’t need them to win the next election.
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:46 am
by confessions on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:48 am
Why should a Liberal electorate get priority, after all they are getting Liberal policy, they very thing they voted for, the very thing they want.
by fredn on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:48 am
It’s his job to polish Murdoch’s piles isn’t?
Always nice to see a man who enjoys his work, I say.
by smithe on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:48 am
GeeWizz,
What a load of twaddle!
But even if that was the case, why should it effect the way in which they conduct their legislative responsibilities?
Why would they want to stick their necks out and potentially break the law or leave themselves open to accusations of partisan activity.
With the degree of embarrassment being caused to the Government at the present time, it is more than likely one could surmise that it is Howard appointees that are causing it.
That would be a load of twaddle too, wouldn’t it?
Funny how it is only supporters of the Liberal Party that have the gall to suggest that there is impropriety in the way in which FWA has carried out their duties in this issue.
I can’t remember seeing any left or Labor supporters suggesting that it is a conspiracy by Howard appointees to bring down the Government!
Funny that, eh, Wizzer.
by scorpio on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:49 am
Gosh oz pollihave a mesh wickerbasket, with ahandle, i ti ewith string,te one eg,rosemary,
Then tie basil, then bayleaves, oragarno.
Hang basket in mycase off the side of tne dresser, morning sun, on one week you have
Beautfull dried herbs,that lastfor everso e of mine are two years old.
I leave some in the basket hanging off tne dresser that is full of blue and white spode, and blue delft. I have at the mo ent hydrandgers, and roses ‘ hangi g. Yhe must be upside down,
Some of my roses are10 year old. If thiswas franks, withbeingable to up load icouldshowu
Thishow it was done i n jane austens time,
Youcanalso dry,basil seeds lay them ina brown paper bag, say onan outsidetable
Use seads in stir fries. Pumpkin seeds. Also pin e nuts
by my say on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:50 am
Why the delay? FWA claims in case it will damage a criminal case against those accused, yet the DPP says the report is useless. Yet FWA won’t give NSW Police a copy.
This really is started to stink. Now we have to wait 6 weeks “just cuz”. FWA should immediately hand this information they have to NSW and Victorian police so they can continue their investigation.
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:51 am
@ gee wiz
You will be in for a surprised , thats only if abbott was still the leader,
There is no doubt qld is the biggest state for the coalition
by Meguire Bob on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:51 am
Dutton’s electorate (Dickson) is outer-suburban -> acreage -> rural Suburbs and towns include Albany Creek, Arana Hills, Bray Park, Brendale, Cashmere, Dayboro, Eatons Hill, Everton Hills, Ferny Hills, Joyner, Kallangur, Lawnton, Mount Glorious, Mount Nebo, Petrie, Samford Valley, Strathpine and Warner.
Critical military? Nein. Unis? Non! Major medical facilities? Nada!
Major difficulties accessing ADSL2, mobile phone/dongle etc? Few in comparison with neighbouring Blair’s seriously limited coverage, significant black-holes inc on significant transport and holiday traffic.
But Dutton’s political lifeblood comes from those retirement villages and Super-triple-whopper McMansions around Albany Creek and Briz’s Scenic Rim.
by OzPol Tragic on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:53 am
ROFLMAO!
Haven’t you heard of the Police Unions in Vic and NSW?
The HSU would slip the bent coppers a few bob, and it will all go away.
No, what you really need is a truly independent body.
Maybe a committee of 12 strong and true from the members of the Melbourne Club.
After all, they have considerable knowledge of using shareholders’ funds to finance little trickeries with boys and girls of the night.
by kezza2 on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:56 am
@GW
WAAAAAH! WAAAAH! WAAAAH! There is a delay this stinks!
Sour grapes. NO EARLY ELECTION.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:58 am
my say,
I have found a social networking site you might enjoy, called Pinterest which is a like a pin-up board for things you are interested in. It is used mainly in the usa by females interested in arts and crafts. It is in the list of top ten social networking sites, you have to ask for an invitation to join. I have put in a request for an invitation.
http://venturebeat.com/2012/04/05/pinterest-third-most-popular-social-network
http://pinterest.com/
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 7, 2012 at 11:59 am
A good roundup of articles with links to same
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2012/04/what-happened-with-the-nbn-this-week-57/
by Leroy on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:00 pm
GW Manifesto
Unions, BOO!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:02 pm
wizzer
LOL.
One of the most heavily unionised sectors/industries in the land is the police force.
Time after time you prove beyond all reasonable doubt what a complete dickhead you are.
BTW Why won’t you tell us what your (alleged) small business actually does? I bolded that bit so you can’t claim you missed it
by Dan Gulberry on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:03 pm
http://tinyurl.com/7yhu69k (click google link)
more in the article
by Leroy on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Not sure what Dutton is going on about as most of Wyatt Roy’s electorate has been listed for the next rollout.
by DavidWH on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Not sure what Dutton is going on about as most of Wyatt Roy’s electorate has been listed for the next rollout.
by DavidWH on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Leroy,
more money to spend on hospital beds and police.
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:09 pm
DavidWH
I suppose his failure to secure the NBN makes him look like a pathetic local MP.
Funny about that.
by zoomster on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:12 pm
GeeWizz,
Yeah, enough to pay for four nurses aids for one year or three coppers.
That’ll make a difference!
by scorpio on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:20 pm
I’m enjoying the posts of Rummel and Gee Whiz(Clowns to the PB aristocracy) as they crank up the rhetoric of outrage. Each post more outlandish than the previous one as they compete to produce froth and bubble that would be the envy of any inner suburban coffee shop.
Everyone needs to laugh and our resident Zig and Zag provide plenty of opportunity.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:21 pm
@GeeWizz/1336
So you want us to turn into a nanny country?
More police doesn’t it more successful.
There is more to Policing, than Police.
Police Cars, Police Equipment, Police Tactics, Police Backup and Response etc.
by zoidlord on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:22 pm
ROFLMAO
Read the article!
On a conservative estimate, Newman will lose $50,000 a year by his literary cost-cutting measure.
So make that a loss of 1 nurse’s aide a year! Wonderful economics.
by kezza2 on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:24 pm
But…but…but…he’s future leadership material!!
by confessions on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Late last night I commented that the Australian article about Abbott’s sister being gay wouldn’t make much difference to the debate as he still stuck by his original gay marriage policy.
What a goose I am. I failed to understand what the Right can do with this sort of stuff. Andrew Bolt has a post on his blog telling us that we now have proof that Abbott is a wonderful person and the Left needs to apologise to him.
it does not appear that Abbott has changed his attitude on anything : still treats his sister the same way as he did before, still prevents Libs from having a conscience vote. The Oz article is a masterpiece of spin and PR from Loughnane/Credlin as pointed out last night by confessions. I leave a representative quote below from Bolt’s blog, but also remind people that it is “normal” for people to hold opposite views regarding an issue. I know a guy who lives with a Chinese lady but hate Asians polluting his suburb. I knew a bloke 20 years ago whose brother was gay but he still hated poofs and their Mardi Gras. Abbott refuses to consider gay marriage but his sister is gay. So what?
humorous post on Bolt’s blog
Reader DK:
Tony Abbott is amazing. I’m speechless. This points to so many outstanding character traits. Loyal. Trustworthy. Compassionate. Sympathetic. Principled. Loving. Respectful. I’m truly flawed by this and I think he is far deeper, more considered and more understanding than any of those one dimensional wowsers from the left give him credit for.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_real_tony_and_his_sister/
by Phil Vee on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Zoomster, understatement! And troofie, if you want the most obvious example of a government ‘stacking’ a board, tune into the ABC. Did you work out who Kate Carnell is yet?
by outside left on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Fess #1301, agree about the Aust mostly, but occasionally Uncle Rupert allows some quality stuff, for whatever reason, to salve his conscience or to provide a fig leaf … todays stories about education inequity are pretty good.
And ironic to have two headlines together “wealth determines education outcomes” and “what Abbott learned from his family”. Indeed. Abbott is a true class warrior who then has the effrontery to accuse others of class war.
by Marrickville Mauler on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:26 pm
DavidWH, your not alone there mate. Although its probably just the latest expression of their tantrum tactics.
ie: No, Boo (unions / boats), WhAAAA, wud about ME!!, Look over there!!
They have comprehensively lost on policy as regards the NBN. I suspect now they are morphing towards “having always supported it” in the lead up to late 2013.
Will be interesting if they actually attack the 2010 Indies deal with Gillard to skew the roll-out towards regional areas as an example of how she has “sold out for power” or if they keep REAL quiet on that front.
by imacca on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:26 pm
GG, throw in Diog. Go ahead, make my day
by The Finnigans on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Maybe Longman is considered marginal Zoomster?
by DavidWH on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Kezza,
How will he lose money from cutting $250K. This is sounding like ALP economics
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 12:28 pm