Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Coalition
More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
This is why I follow progressives on Twitter. Because they’re witty and smart. Can you imagine anything of this caliber coming from a rightard?
by Cuppa on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:18 pm
GW
Word for word what Mr Joyce said to justify his act. Are you sleeping with him?
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:19 pm
kezza,
That page tells you when the third readings, HoR and Senate, were completed. You have to check the Hansard for each of those days.
There was no vote in the HoR or in the Senate (where the Oops did their usual filibustering). So, they did not vote against it.
by This little black duck on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:20 pm
guytaur
Are you suggesting gw would share pillow-talk? shame on you! go to the naughty corner!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Cuppa, not to mention the written diarrhea we often see here at PB. Exhibit A: Truthie.
140 chars are too long for them
by The Finnigans on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:23 pm
@rosemour: “Snowy Mountains River Scheme”
The funny thing about that, is if it were proposed today, the Greens would never support it due to the “Environmental damage” it would do to the river – and Labor would probably end up split over the issue as a result.
by John64 on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Gee Whiz,
So you now acknowledge that what you wrote was a lie.
Qantas, in fact, made the decision to close Qantas.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:25 pm
GG
I think you could argue that is a prerequisite.
by Diogenes on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Yes to force FWA to act.
If FWA had acted previously then they wouldn’t have shut down the airliner. Therefore this was more incompetence from FWA.
by GeeWizz on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:29 pm
poroti
considering Abbott found out about his sister’s homosexuality in 2008, why was he was still feeling threatened in 2010?
Perhaps he equates homosexuality with gays (not lesbians) – and was feeling threatened in his backside!
Or was he feeling threatened by a woman preferring another woman (thus cutting out what he considered to be rightfully belonging to a male)?
anyways, it was a very noice article. So noice it even tucked in this nasty little backhanded jibe, about the left, from Abbott:
by kezza2 on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Kezza
It was all that parading around in budgie smugglers and then finding out there was such a thing as a gay lifesaver.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:31 pm
DavidWH – The reasons why the FWA didn’t just ‘share’ are that they would not be indemnified by doing that.
If anyone wanted access to their collected ‘hearsay’ all they had to do was convince a judge to issue a supoena.
If your local police wanted to access your tax records would you think it OK for the ATO to just hand it over?
by CTar1 on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Cuppa:
Thanks for that link. Interesting that most of the commentary about the coalition’s do-nothing scheme were in Crikey!
What does that tell you about the msm?
by confessions on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:35 pm
tlbd
Ta for that info.
I can’t be bothered looking for the actual vote, so I’ll take your word for it!
by kezza2 on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:35 pm
@GeeWizz/1386
O’Farrell is already 1 year old in gov, Newman is what? not even a month.
by zoidlord on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:35 pm
@Cuppa,
That’s why I like new media like Twitter, that’s what Nutters like Abbott don’t want.
by zoidlord on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:36 pm
I wouldn’t put the words environmental damage inside quotation marks as though to imply it’s only said to be such. The river was literally damaged in a profound way as I’m sure you would be aware.
Speaking of which, haven’t heard anything in recent times about the Noalition brainfart of putting dams all over the place.
I suspect they quietly put that one to bed after seeing what a fuss the locals kicked up over the Traveston attempt in Queensland.
by Cuppa on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:36 pm
GeeWhiz raises an important issue here. It’s hard to know how to avoid it due to the expertise needed, but most professions are largely investigated and penalised by their colleagues. Doctors, nurses, lawyers, journos, police etc etc.
It doesn’t mean they are biased or get it wrong but it can create a perception that they protect their own.
by Diogenes on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:37 pm
GeeWizz,
Blimey! Do you read and write standing on your head?
Qantas didn’t want FWA to step in and force them to cancel the lockdown of the Airline.
The whole intention of the lockdown was to force the employees to cease any and all protected action in their dispute with management.
Qantas management were the noorty boys & girls, not the employees. In fact Qantas should have been in trouble for an illegal act.
They got off lightly but will pay in the long term because extended families such as mine will “never” use that airline again now.
by scorpio on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:37 pm
I’ve decided to bring to an end GeeWizz’s brief return, which I’d only ever intended for Queensland election discussion. He doesn’t deserve it particularly – there are a few Labor supporters here who certainly aren’t less stupid than he is, but who go unpunished for precisely the same crime. However, while he’s here the threads become all about him, and for all that it is unfair, removing him is the simplest way of solving the problem.
by William Bowe on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Gee Whiz,
As always, the florid rhetoric you use has no base in facts.
Qantas chose to close down the network, strand thousands of people around the world and cost itself millions of dollars simply to make a political point. There were always other less extreme options to pursue.
All they did was trash their brand.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Andrew Elder’s latest:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/how-poor-history-leads-to-poor-analysis.html
by confessions on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:40 pm
zoidlord,
Qld LNP, 14 days! WOW, how much damage will they be able to do in 1095 days?
Me thinks there will be a lot of very disillusioned LNP voters by then.
by scorpio on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:42 pm
William,
I am no fan of Gee Whiz. But, banning him when he’s done nothing wrong apart from bullshit, lie or be disagreeable is unfair.
I’d ask you you reconsider.
by Greensborough Growler on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:43 pm
guytaur
so, that’s what made his goolies shrink – FEAR – nothing to do with his crude cold water joke!
Poor bastard, have you noticed that he’s always photographed these days with his back to the wall! He must see them everywhere. Had to get out of seminary too because of the ‘darkness’ he found there. he he
by kezza2 on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:44 pm
GW
FWA is as much a department as you are an informed contributor!
by BK on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:46 pm
rosemour@1377
You and Mick77 are singing the same song re Gillard.
Mega posts back I challenged Mick77 to actually put down here the pathway to such an event.
I asked him come come up with the when, how, who and who should initiate this, from my point of view, stupid exercise.
So, I will ask the same kind of questions of you re Gillard.
*Just when should Gillard go?
*Should she be axed or fall on her own sword?
*If she is to be axed, who will do it?
*If she is to be replaced, by whom?
*Given that Gillard has just won overwhelming support of her colleagues, and obviously has the support of the front bench, what part of the front bench should go? I am assuming you do not really believe that Gillard will not have a number of close supporters who may not want to work with the “new” leader?
*If and when JG goes, just where does she go? To Health/Education, the Back Bench, resign/retire, what? If she went to the BB what a wonderful spectacle for the conservatives to look across at – not just one, but two leaders who Abbott would claim he “saw off”. Oh how good that would look!
*Any changes to policy do you think? What the Carbon Tax, the MRRT, plain packaging for ciggies. Which to change? Which to go.
And now to the toughest question of all.
*Just what narrative does Labor provide for the electorate?
Now let me see. First time around, when Rudd went. “Labor has lost its way”. With the reaffirmation of Gillard, it was due to Rudd’s inability to work with anyone. So, third time around, what? “We lost our way, we found it again, we lost it again now we have found it again”?
Do me a favour.
Unless you can come up with as Mick77 at least tried to do, don’t bother with this “Gillard has to go” crap.
With Gillard the possibility of victory in 2013 is always there.
With anybody else defeat is highly likely.
Why would anyone, if Labor follows the NSW model of leadership change, vote for Labor?
At the moment – 18 months out – and with an ounce of luck and things hold in place, anything is possible.
by Tricot on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Kezza
To be fair we do not know what happened in the Seminary. The Catholic Church does have a reputation to repair after mistakes on covering up sexual abuse allegations.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:49 pm
You can’t have it both ways, a more balanced group and no rot. Lets be honest the Liberals actually don’t have a lot of policy. The childish nonsense goes right to the top, with a few honorable exceptions in the lower ranks. You can’t expect the posters to behave better than their fearless leader.
by fredn on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:49 pm
So, GW has been sacrificed so that the rest of us may be saved? Seems appropriate for this time of year.
by This little black duck on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:49 pm
I know it’s unfair, GG, but about half of the comments being left at the moment are either by or about him, and my judgement is that the end justifies the means. His crime if any is a lack of restraint – I’d happily tolerate him if he just popped in from time to time, but he seems to be here incessantly. I do have to wonder what if anything he does for a living, given the political views he claims for himself.
by William Bowe on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:50 pm
citizen cam at times spouts nonsense, but it is funny nonsense.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Keeps our borders safe:
http://tinyurl.com/7qbqgr9
by This little black duck on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Well when gee wiz is here we are actually EDUCATING THE LURKERS! Its a great learning ‘ are for
Ignorance:-)
So whats the problem i have lesrned things to about policies
by my say on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:55 pm
So e weeks ago, william you wanted more of them whats changed
by my say on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Perhaps gee whizz could have some sort of parole or day release. He could be allowed to post 2 hours a day.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:57 pm
I am off myself. Swans game starting.
by guytaur on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:58 pm
DavidWH
Thanks for the reply explaining your meaning of farcical in relation to FWA.
I’d just add to CTar1′s post (1411), that even 10 months into my own forensic investigation of my father’s affairs, it would have been pointless handing over the material I’d gathered.
At that point in time it would not have stood up to any sort of scrutiny: the missing pieces would have been conjecture and could not have possibly been presented in a court of law, criminal or civil.
by kezza2 on Apr 7, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Tough one re GW. A bit like chewy on your shoes, you try to ignore it but it is always there!
I actually do read what he puts here, but it tends to be more of the same of which we are all guilty.
On the other hand, there is little point in engaging with him/her it usually finishes up in some kind of less than complementary comment.
by Tricot on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:00 pm
William
Wise move. It wasn’t so much GWs crap that annoyed me the most – I can scroll past that -but I found myself having to scroll past reams of other posts as well which were all about his crap. Perhaps we can now get back to some sanity and worthwhile discussion.
by Darn on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:00 pm
My say in Willam’s defence I think he was more interested in hanging onto the few he had.
by DavidWH on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Sort of what I had in mind when I let him out in the first place, Puff. With the Queensland election panning out the way it was, the times seemed to demand a bit of Voice of Truthy. It was only ever going to be temporary though, and was intended to be Queensland-specific. But then he played his sneaky game of not doing anything wrong, and appropriate occasions for returning him to the gulag never suggested themselves. So here I am now, being unfair.
by William Bowe on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Gee Whiz was banned previously for serial stupidity, and his recent efforts indicate nothing has changed! I was quite happy to see him back, initially. But I think William has made the correct call. GW shares with us the perspectives of those who inhabit the world of talk back radio, Which was amusing for a while, but quickly became tiresome.
by Outsider on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:04 pm
This from Elder says it all for me:
Incidentally, we never seemed to discuss Credlin (or see much commentary about her) until that OO puff piece on her a few months ago. Now her name has become synonymous with the muscular antics of Liberals, and the spin doctor management of Abbott.
by confessions on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:08 pm
William – Thanks for banning GW. he was getting tiresome and repetitive. I assume he is a Liberal agent provacateur ie paid Liberal stooge or perhaps in FNQ its a Katter Australia Party stooge.
He really is a shining example of the Queensland education system standards.
by billie on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:08 pm
William
The bastard! Such depths of perfidy!
Imagine if we all behaved like that…
by zoomster on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:09 pm
CTar and Kezza after reading the solicitor advice to FWA the main reason advice was given to withhold information centered around Privacy Legislation and which could be resolved by some thoughtful change to the FWA legislation. It will probably get sorted once all these issues around HSU are finalized.
by DavidWH on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:09 pm
I agree with you William, thanks for banning GW. As billie says, he gets tiresome and repetitive.
by don on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Don
by my say on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:15 pm
But gee we learned a lot, of how the majorith of libeals are, so was he truthy
by my say on Apr 7, 2012 at 2:16 pm